Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sector Update | 1 December 2024

Consumer Durables

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Best Domestic

Brokerage

# Ranked Top 3

(CY21-CY23)

Demand moderates; RAC fares better

After the festive period, we performed channel checks across various product

categories in Mumbai, West Bengal, Bihar, and Telangana markets and key

takeaways are as follows:



MUM WB BR

12 20-25 20

Refrigerator 10

Washing

Flat Flat 12-13 Flat

Machine

Television

5-6

~5 8-10 5-8

Mum-Mumbai; WB-

West Bengal;

- Bihar;

TG-

Telangana



Category Growth (%)

Mixed trends in category growth:

Discussions with distributors indicate that

festive season demand was not as strong as it was last year and that consumer

enthusiasm was missing. Consumers delayed their buying decisions, which could

be a sign of a consumption slowdown, though it needs to be monitored. A few

distributors indicated that as Durga Pooja and Diwali were celebrated in one

month (last year, Diwali was in mid-November), it impacted demand momentum

from salaried people. Distributors also indicated that festive season demand was

restricted to a fewer number of days (5-6) this year. Among major categories,

RAC saw higher growth across regions (except in Mumbai where refrigerators

saw better growth), followed by refrigerators. Televisions saw demand growth

of around 5-10% across regions, and few distributors indicated that sales of

higher-priced items like OLED were lower than QNED. Washing machine saw

muted growth across regions, except in Bihar, where growth is estimated to be

12-13% YoY.

Inventory remains low:

None of the distributors seem to be concerned about

the inventory situation and indicated that inventory is low. Inventory for RAC is

less than 30 days now, compared with a normal level of 40-45 days. Some

distributors indicated that few brands will start primary sales for RAC in Dec’24,

though a major inventory build-up will happen in 4QFY25. The summer season in

few states start from mid-March and demand in the upcoming season needs to

be watched for, considering a higher base.

Detailed category-wise takeaways from our interactions

Room Air Conditioners (RAC)



Mumbai distributors indicated that RAC sales were impacted by rains in Sep’24-

end/Oct’24 beginning. LG did not supply 5-star (1 ton and 1.5 ton) rated ACs

after Jun’24 and 3-star rated ACs after Sep’24. Lloyd is doing well, and believes

that its market share would be 18-19% (21-22% for Voltas, 20-21% for Daikin

and 13-14% for Blue Star). Lloyd gives one of the best margins to retailers (13-

14% vs. 8-9% by Voltas). Daikin offers better prices for MT channels, and GTM

channels are not able to compete with bigger stores for its products.

Bihar distributors highlighted that most of the brands have fared well in AC

(Voltas continues to be at No.1 thanks to strong trust on Tata group; Lloyd has

done extremely well this year and has gained market share). Samsung’s supply

of 1-ton and 2-ton ACs was impacted and it was mostly supplying 1.5-ton ACs.

West Bengal distributors highlighted that there is not much inventory of RAC and

that brands like Hitachi, Daikin, Voltas, and Lloyd will start giving inventory in

Dec’24. Lloyd is doing better and it might try to increase prices in the upcoming

season. Lloyd (RAC as well as in panels) and Voltas have done better than other

brands in this festive season. Daikin offers better prices for MT channels, though

the models are different.

Sanjeev Kumar Singh - Research analyst

(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)

Research analyst: Mudit Agarwal

(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)

| Abhishek Sheth

(Abhishek.Sheth@MotilalOswal.com)

MotilalOswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Consumer durables



Telangana distributors highlighted that AC sales were healthy, though the base

was low. Overall growth during Jan-Oct’24 seems to be ~40% YoY (vs. 45% as of

Sep’24). Daikin has gained market share with new product launches.

Washing Machine (WM)



Mumbai distributors indicated that demand was flat YoY. The share of front-load

WM is ~20%, while it is 80% for top-load WM (50% for fully automatic and 30%

for semi-automatic). LG and Samsung have 24-25% market share each, though

Samsung has lost market share this time due to a strike at its Chennai plant.

Whirlpool has 22-23% market share in WM, whereas Godrej has strong presence

in semi-automatic WMs. Whirlpool has introduced 7.5kg stain WM with heater

at ~INR18k, which is doing significantly better than other brands as no one is

able to offer similar machine at this price range.

Bihar distributors indicated that growth during the festive season was 12-13%

YoY. WM sales of 9-10kg capacity was high with 80-90% market for top-load

machines (price is ~INR10k for semi-automatic machines and ~INR14k for fully

automatic machines). Fully automatic machines are seeing higher demand now,

as it is easier to convert semi-automatic WM customers to fully automatic WMs.

LG, Samsung and Whirlpool have a higher market share in the category. Voltas

Beko is also picking up and offers semi-automatic machines at competitive rates.

It gives better margins to retailers than other competitors.

West Bengal and Telangana distributors believe that WM sales were flat YoY. In

West Bengal markets, Whirlpool and LG have higher market shares in the

category.

Refrigerators



Mumbai distributors indicated that Whirlpool is No.1 brand in direct-cool

refrigerators and has recorded one of its highest volumes in the festive season.

Whirlpool’s Athena Steel has garnered strong market share (40%+) in 235-242-

liter capacity (price is ~INR20.5-21k, whereas Samsung’s 28k 3042s8 is available

at INR22.5-23k and LG’s 292 bdsy is available at INR22-22.5k). Voltas Beko has a

market share of 7-8% in refrigerators; however; its market share in direct cool

refrigerator is 12-13%. Whirlpool has the highest market share in refrigerators’

below 278-liter capacity, whereas Samsung is at No. 1 position in CBU

refrigerators (400+ liters).

LG and Samsung have a combined market share of 45-48%, whereas Whirlpool’s

market share is 20-22%. LG and Samsung used to import side-by-side

refrigerators earlier, but now they are getting them manufactured locally;

hence, prices have come down. Earlier, refrigerators with side-by-side doors

were sold at a price of ~INR80k, which has now come down to INR65-70k,

compared to INR55k for Godrej. As a result, consumers prefer LG and Samsung

over Godrej. LG has not supplied direct-cool refrigerators after Sep’24-end, and

Samsung’s inventory was also impacted by a strike at its Chennai plant. This

benefitted brands like Whirlpool and Godrej. Acer started its refrigerator brands

and started supplying in mid-Oct’24.

Bihar distributors indicated that direct-cool models saw the highest sales,

followed by frost-free and CBU (considered as status symbol). CBU refrigerators

(400+ liters) recorded 60-70% YoY growth on a small base. Price of CBU

1 December 2024

Consumer durables



refrigerators has come down to INR65-70k from INR90-95k earlier. LG and

Samsung are market leaders, while Whirlpool has also bounced back

aggressively. It has introduced glass-door and floral-print models in direct-cool

refrigerators, which are witnessing strong demand in the Hindi heartland

markets. Whirlpool is No.1 brand as it has strong presence in rural areas and Tier

3/4 cities.

West Bengal distributors highlighted that there was not much impact of the

strike at Samsung’s plant and they were able to fulfill orders with a lag (7-8 days;

back-to-back orders had issues, and supply of side-by-side door models was

limited). Whirlpool has a strong presence in direct-cool and entry-level frost-free

refrigerators. However, its SKUs in the above 400-litre category are limited.

In Telangana, Samsung and LG have recorded higher sales than Whirlpool.

Refrigerators saw 15% YoY growth (3-4pp lower than last year).

Televisions



Mumbai distributors indicated that sales of high-end products did not grow as

expected, as LG did not focus on advertising OLED (price range: INR2-3 lakhs)

and focus was more on QNED (INR75k- INR1.1 lakh).



Bihar distributors indicated that panel sales were not good at this time. Last

year, ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup was also during the festive period, which led

to strong demand.



The trend in West Bengal was different than other regions as distributors

highlighted that there was value growth in the festive season as sales of

premium products were higher, and the mass category saw weak demand.



Mobile:

Mobile as a category is seeing lower growth as consumers are not

changing high-end products this time (e.g., iPhone 16 is not seeing good

demand, Samsung’s new fold model is also witnessing lower demand).

Fans:

Mumbai dealers indicated that fan sales picked up in Sep-Oct’24 and believe

that the segment grew 10% YoY in this period. In fans, sales of premium

products are increasing, and the share of decorative fans has increased to ~25%

now. It should further increase to ~30% in coming months. In fans, Crompton is

No. 1, followed by Havells, but there is not much difference in market share.

Other key points:

Mumbai distributors indicated that every company gave 2-4%

higher discount, as Onam sales this year were not encouraging. Companies offer

a credit period of 7-10 days, with lower credit given by LG/Samsung/Whirlpool

(4-7 days) and higher credit by Godrej and Lloyd. Local manufacturing has

resulted in price reduction (e.g., iPhone 16 pro max price was INR10k lower than

iPhone 15 pro max; 43” TV price has come down by INR2k; RAC price has come

down by INR500-800).

Valuation and view



Among the consumer durable companies under our coverage (including cables &

wires), we are positive on industry dynamics of cables & wires, as we believe

that the sector has long-term growth potential, led by government

infrastructure spends, increasing focus on renewable energy, real estate

spending, pick-up in exports in last few years, increasing investments in data

centers, and EV infrastructure.

1 December 2024

Consumer durables



RAC is a long-term story given the low penetration, rising income, changing

weather conditions, etc.; however, it is a seasonal product and demand in the

upcoming season needs to be monitored given a strong base of the last summer

season.

We prefer Polycab and KEI among the cable & wire companies. We prefer Voltas

in the RAC segment.

Exhibit 1:

Valuation summary

Company

POLYCAB

KEI

RRKABEL

HAVL

VOLT

M-cap CMP

1094

389

163

1079

549

(INR b) (INR) (INR)

7,282 8,330

4,311 5,100

1,441 1,900

1,659 2,070

Rating

BUY

EPS (INR)

125

151

182

112

EPS CAGR

15%

20%

29%

22%

82%

P/E (x)

19.5

13.9

17.8

13.4

RoE (%)

18.1

20.4

19.3

15.2

20.2

18.4

24.1

20.7

16.6

24.2

17.7

12.6

23.8

RoIC (%)

25.2

18.6

18.4

27.6

31.9

26.8

19.1

22.5

31.9

35.4

FY25E FY26E FY27E (FY24-27E) FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E

1,722 1,830 Hold

Source: MOFSL, Company

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

1 December 2024

Consumer durables

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

> - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take

appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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Consumer durables

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