E
CO
S
COPE
The Economy Observer
11 November 2024
General govt. capex contracts 12.7% in 1HFY25
High chances that the govt. may undershoot its FY25 capex target
The Government of India (GoI) continued to focus on improving the quality of expenditure by raising its total capital
spending (including loans & advances, L&As) by 17.1% YoY to INR11.1t in FY25BE. The spending surged 3.3x in just five
years from INR3.4t in FY20. Excluding L&As, the Center’s capital expenditure (capex) has been budgeted at INR9.2t in
FY25BE
(Exhibit 1).
Based on the unaudited provisional data, The Center’s capex declined 13.5% YoY in 1HFY25, achieving
only 39.1% of BEs in 1HFY25, compared to 50% each in the last two years and the lowest during the corresponding period
in the past decade (except 1HFY21,
Exhibit 2).
This, however, was clearly a story of two halves – capex fell more than a third in 1QFY25, while it increased 14.6% YoY in
2QFY25
(Exhibit 3).
Interestingly though, it grew only in Apr’24 and Jul’24, while declining in four of the last six months. One
of the reasons behind slower capex in 1H, thus, could be general elections (which took place in Apr-Jun this year). In any
case, it means that the Center’s capex has to grow by 50% YoY in 2HFY25, following 22% YoY in 2HFY24
(Exhibit 4).
This is
not impossible but certainly a tall task since the Center’s capex growth was < 25% in the last five years (barring FY22, when
it grew 57%) and it averaged ~17% in the last ten years and 29% in the last four years. Therefore, we believe that the
Center’s actual capex this year could be only ~92-95% of BE (INR8.5-8.7t), undershooting the target by INR500-700b.
It is no surprise that such contraction is visible in defense, roads & railways, since they account for 75-80% of the Center’s
capex. Defense capex was down 15.2% YoY and was only 31% of BEs in 1HFY25, compared to a growth of 6.2% YoY and
an achievement of 39% of BEs in 1HFY24. Capex in railways and roads also dropped 4.8% and 10.1% YoY in 1HFY25,
respectively, and were lower at 50-55% of BEs vs. ~60% each in 1HFY24
(Exhibits 5 and 6).
At the same time, capital spending of all states has also more than doubled to INR10.1t in FY25BE from INR4.6t in FY20.
Nevertheless, unlike the GoI, which usually meets its budget estimates (BEs), states’ actual capital spending was only 83%
of BEs over the past decade. Therefore, states’ targets must be taken with a big pinch of salt
(Exhibits 7 and 8).
Excluding loans and advances (L&As), capital expenditure (capex) of all states was budgeted at INR9.2t in FY25BE.
Assuming that states achieve 85% of BEs in FY25 (last 5- or 10-year average was 77-78%), it implies a target of INR7.8t
and muted growth of just 3.7% YoY this year
(Exhibit 9).
1
Based on the provisional/supplementary data of 18 states , all states’ capex is estimated to have fallen 11.5% YoY in
1HFY25, reaching 26.7% of BEs, lower than 31.8% in 1HFY24, but in line with 26-27% achieved during the corresponding
period in the past decade (Exhibit
10).
States’ capex declined in four of the six months in 1HFY25; it picked up in Jul’24 and Aug’24 but contracted again in
Sep’24. Consequently, the contraction was modest in 2QFY25 vs. 1QFY25. Our estimates suggest that states’ capex
dipped 20.8% YoY in 1QFY25, followed by a decline of 5.7% YoY in 2Q
(Exhibits 11 and 12).
An analysis of individual states suggests that nine out of 18 states witnessed a reduction in capex in 1HFY25 vs. four in
1HFY24
(Exhibit 13).
Further, as many as seven states have achieved less than a quarter of its annual targets vs. five in
1HFY24
(Exhibit 14).
Overall, the total capex of the general government (GG, Center + states) declined 12.7% YoY in 1HFY25, following a CAGR
of 25% during the corresponding period in the last four years
(Exhibit 15).
Fiscal capex, thus, was only 32.9% of BEs in
1HFY25, compared to an average of ~39% in the last two years
(Exhibit 16)
and lower than the past decade’s average.
It is very likely that fiscal capex will pick up in 2HFY25; however, elections cannot explain such weak growth in 1HFY25,
especially for states. Assuming ~40% YoY growth in the Center’s capex and ~20% YoY growth in states’ capex in 2HFY25,
combined capex could grow about 30% YoY in 2HFY25, following 17% growth in 2HFY24. It would then be 90% of BEs in
FY25, similar to that in the last two years.
These states account for 85-90% of all states’ Budget. The states/UT covered in this report are Andhra Pradesh (AP), Assam (AS), Bihar (BH), Chhattisgarh (CT),
Haryana (HR), Himachal Pradesh (HP), Jammu & Kashmir (JK), Karnataka (KA), Kerala (KL), Madhya Pradesh (MP), Maharashtra (MH), Punjab (PB), Rajasthan (RJ),
Tamil Nadu (TN), Telangana (TS), Uttarakhand (UK), Uttar Pradesh (UP), and West Bengal (WB).
1
Nikhil Gupta
– Research analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)
Tanisha Ladha
– Research analyst
(Tanisha.Ladha@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 1: Total capital spending of the Central Govt.
budgeted at INR11.1t in FY25….
Capex (Excl. L&As)
(INRt)
5.9
Loans & advances
Total capital spending
9.5
7.4 1.6
11.1
1.9
Exhibit 2: …but it declined 13.5% YoY in 1HFY25, reaching
only 39.1% of FY25BE
Center's capex
35.2
-1.2
-14.6
42.2
20.3
13.5
-14.0
-13.5
% of BEs
% YoY (rs)
52.2
41.3
30.2
4.3
3.1 3.4
9.2
2.5 2.9 2.6
7.9
1.7 1.9 2.0
6.2
5.3
2.3 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2
1.5 1.7 1.7
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
FY25BE
37.9 47.9 40.6 46.9 54.6 55.6 39.0 40.8 52.3 49.7 39.1
1HFY15
1HFY17
1HFY19
1HFY21
1HFY23
1HFY25
Exhibit 3: Center’s capex increased 14.6% YoY in 2QFY25,
following a contraction of 35.4% YoY in 1QFY25…
Center's capex^ (% YoY)
100
Exhibit 4: …which implies that it must grow at 50.5% YoY in
2HFY25 to achieve the full-year target
Center's capex (% YoY)
57.1
35.5
29.6
7.4
-0.1
2HFY15
-25.2
2HFY17
2HFY19
2HFY21
2HFY23
2HFY25
8.8
20.2
16.4 21.9
50.5
50
14.6
0
-35.4
-50
2QFY19 2QFY20 2QFY21 2QFY22 2QFY23 2QFY24 2QFY25
Exhibit 5: Defense and roads capex declined 15.2% and
10.1% in 1HFY25…
Capex (% YoY)
1HFY24
1HFY25
61.0
Exhibit 6: ….achieving only 31% and 50% of BEs in 1HFY25,
respectively
Capex (% of BEs)
1HFY24
60.5
49.8
31.3
1HFY25
59.4
55.8
28.3
6.2
-10.1
Roads
-4.8
Railways
39.0
-15.2
Defense
Defense
Roads
Railways
Source: Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG), CEIC, MOFSL
^Capital expenditure excluding loans & advances
Exhibit 7: States’ capital spending* budgeted at INR10.1t in
FY25BE vs. an actual of INR4.6t in FY20
States' capital spending (INRt)
Actuals
Budget estimates
8.2
9.6
10.1
Exhibit 8: States’ actual capital spending was only 83% of BEs
over the past decade
Actuals (% of BEs)
93.8
84.7
81.6
84.5
92.7 91.2
84.5 84.6
79.5
74.0
70.7
FY22
FY24*
82.6 84.1
2.6 3.0
3.6 3.9
4.9 5.1
6.5
5.8 6.2
7.2
4.4 4.3 4.9 4.6 4.6
3.0 3.6
2.2 2.4
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
5.7 6.8
8.0
FY23
FY25
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY20
*Including L&As
FY24 data based on provisional/supplementary monthly data
Source: State budget documents, CAG, MOFSL
11 November 2024
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 9: States’ capex# to grow only 3.7% in FY25,
assuming the same achieves 85% of BEs
States' capex
23.3
12.8 14.2
0.8
Actuals (% of BEs)
19.3
20.5
11.9
-1.1
-5.0
28.7
% YoY, rhs
24.9
13.1
3.7
Exhibit 10: States’ capex contracted 11.5% in 1HFY25,
achieving only 26.7% of BEs
States' capex
% of BE
% YoY (rs)
85.2
24.4
25.8
6.8
19.2
39.5
2.1
-34.7
8.5
-11.5
-0.9
81.4 81.4 80.9 74.5 73.6 82.3 81.9 72.0 69.2 79.8 79.8 86.6 85.0
27.7 25.1 26.1 25.9 27.5 25.9 16.5 27.3 26.2 31.8 26.7
#Excluding L&As
FY25F: Assuming states achieve 85% of FY25BEs
Source: State budget documents, CAG, MOFSL
Exhibit 11: States’ capex fell in four of the six months in
1HFY25…
99.4
61.3
1.1
-14.0
17.5 11.3 13.4
-1.7
13.0 13.7
States' capex (% YoY)
Exhibit 12: …and contracted 5.7% YoY in 2QFY25, following a
fall of 20.8% in 1QFY25
90
60
30
0
-5.7
-20.8
States' Capex (% YoY)
-20.8
-29.3
-27.1
-30
Source: State budget documents, CAG, MOFSL, ^Excluding L&As
Exhibit 13: Comparison of provisional fiscal deficit of states in 1HFY24 and 1HFY25 (% YoY)
220
140
60
-20
-100
-72.2
AP
TS
-56.5
-37.8 -35.1
HR
UK
UP
All
states
TN
MP
BH
CT
HP
KL
WB
RJ
MH
JK
KA
AS
PB
-4.1
-3.7
-1.3
2.0
2.2
7.7
16.6
19.2
24.9
25.6
41.2
States' estimated capex (% YoY)
1HFY24
1HFY25
87.1
-16.4 -11.5
-8.4
Source: State budget documents, CAG, CEIC, MOFSL
11 November 2024
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 14: Comparison of provisional fiscal deficit of states in 1HFY24 and 1HFY25 (% of BEs)
States' estimated capex (% of BEs)
1HFY24
1HFY25
39
45
49
23
23
UP
23
HR
UK
23
24
27
28
30
30
30
33
34
37
37
15
AP
16
JK
KA
MH
All
states
CT
AS
WB
HP
TS
TN
RJ
PB
KL
BH
MP
Source: State budget documents, CAG, CEIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 15: GG capex declined 12.7% YoY in 1HFY25 vs. a
growth of 33.8% in 1HFY24…
GG Capex (% YoY)
58.8
31.9 33.8
7.9
Exhibit 16: …achieving only 32.9% of BEs in 1HFY25 vs. an
average of 39% in the last two years
GG capex (% of BEs)
36.7 36.3
33.2
25.2
37.9
40.6
32.9
11.3 15.4
22.2 19.7
4.4
31.5
33.5
30.9
33.5
1HFY15
1HFY17
1HFY19
-23.7
1HFY21
-12.7
1HFY23
1HFY25
1HFY15
1HFY17
1HFY19
1HFY21
1HFY23
1HFY25
Source: State budget documents, CAG, MOFSL, ^Excluding L&As
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11 November 2024
4
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described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to
observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
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The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees
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Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal,
Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person
Contact No.
Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date
022 40548000 / 022 67490600
query@motilaloswal.com
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
022 40548082
servicehead@motilaloswal.com
Mr. Ajay Menon
022 40548083
am@motilaloswal.com
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
11 November 2024
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