E
CO
S
COPE
Pre-Budget I: Will fiscal policy match monetary policy?
It must if bond yield is the new target
21 January 2020
The Economy Observer
With the RBI’s three back-to-back ‘Operation Twist’ transactions (OTTs), wherein it bought longer-dated securities
amounting to INR300b and sold short-term treasuries worth INR253b, it is clear that the RBI (a) does not want to add
meaningfully to its balance sheet, and (b) is targeting bond yields, wanting the yield curve to flatten.
The OTTs, thus, are likely intended to offset the adverse impact of INR500-700b additional borrowings expected to be
announced by the central government in 4QFY20 and keep the 10-year yield range-bound at ~6.6%, even after the
supply hits the markets.
However, recent developments – such as rise in crude oil prices, confirmed massive receipt shortfall and higher
inflation – have brought back the benchmark 10-year bond yield to ~6.65%, only marginally lower than 6.70% before
the first OTT was announced on 19 Dec’19 and as against 6.50% at the beginning of Jan’20.
th
If the policy makers still want to target the bond yield and wish to keep it contained at ~6.6%, the fiscal policy has to
match the monetary policy. This implies that the government must refrain from issuing additional dated securities to
restrict the impact on the benchmark bond yield. Also, the higher fiscal deficit, if any, must be financed through short-
dated bills and/or other non-market instruments such as NSSF, etc. With no further supply of dated securities, the 10-
year bond yield is likely to remain range-bound and additional issuances of T-bills may flatten the curve more – in line
with the monetary policy objective.
Alternatively, the spending burden could be transferred to various CPSEs to mitigate the adverse economic impact.
While issuances of sovereign bonds will remain unchanged, higher public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR) should
keep the financial markets generally tight.
India’s fiscal (center + states) debt has increased from an almost 3-decade low of 66.6% in FY15 to ~70% of GDP in FY18
and is likely to cross 71% of GDP for the first time in a decade this year. Thus, targeting and capping the benchmark
bond yield is of paramount importance because the gap between GDP growth and interest rate has turned negative
for the first time in 17 years in FY20, making government finances unsustainable.
Recent developments have
brought back the 10-year
bond yield to ~6.65%, only
marginally lower than
6.70% before the first OTT
was announced.
What is the objective of RBI’s Operation Twist?
Beginning mid-Dec’19, the RBI conducted three weekly Operation Twist transactions
(OTTs), under which it bought longer-dated securities (maturing in 2029) worth
INR300b and sold short-term treasuries (maturing in 2020) amounting to INR253b.
The fourth such OTT is scheduled for 23
rd
Jan’20. Thus, it is clear that the RBI (a)
does not want to significantly expand its balance sheet by holding more sovereign
bonds amid massive foreign capital inflows
(Exhibit 1),
and (b) is targeting bond
yields and wants the yield curve to flatten. Therefore, we believe that the OTTs are
likely intended to offset the adverse impact of additional borrowings (of INR500-
700b) expected to be announced by the central government in 4QFY20 and keep the
10-year yield range-bound at 6.6-6.7%, even after the supply hits the markets.
However, recent developments – such as rise in crude oil prices, likely shortfall in
disinvestment, confirmed massive tax receipt shortfall and higher inflation – have
brought back the benchmark 10-year bond yield to ~6.65%, only marginally lower
than 6.70% before the first OTT was announced on 19
th
Dec’19 and as against 6.50%
at the beginning of Jan’20
(Exhibit 2).
Nikhil Gupta
– Research analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1555
Yaswi Agrawal
– Research analyst
(Yaswi.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 7193 4196
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 1:
RBI has not expanded its balance sheet…
600
450
300
150
0
(INR b)
Net buying of G-secs by RBI
Exhibit 2:
…and 10-yr bond yield has risen back to ~6.7%
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.5
6.3
First OTT
announce
(%)
Benachmark 10-yr bond yield
Inflation of
7.4% in Dec'19
6.65
11/29/19
12/11/19
12/23/19
01/04/20
01/16/20
* Up to 20 Jan’20
th
Source: RBI, Bloomberg, MoFSL
If the policy makers still
want to target the bond
yield at ~6.6%, the fiscal
policy has to match the
monetary policy. Also, the
government must refrain
from issuing additional
dated securities.
If the policy makers still want to target the bond yield and wish to keep it contained
at ~6.6%, the fiscal policy has to match the monetary policy. This implies that the
government must refrain from issuing additional dated securities to restrict the
impact on the benchmark bond yield. Otherwise, higher fiscal deficit, if any, must be
financed through short-dated bills and/or other non-market instruments, such as
NSSF, etc. With no further supply of dated securities, the 10-year bond yield is likely
to remain range-bound and additional issuances of T-bills may flatten the curve
more – in line with the monetary policy objective.
What is the economic impact?
One of the major side-effects, as majorly argued, of sticking with the fiscal deficit,
and thus, the market borrowing target is the adverse economic impact of the
massive cuts in fiscal spending. However, what matters from the economy’s
perspective is neither the center’s deficit nor states’ or CPSEs in isolation, but a
comprehensive assessment of all such fiscal borrowings called the ‘public sector
borrowing requirement (PSBR).’
What matters from the
economy’s perspective is
neither center’s deficit nor
states’ or CPSEs in isolation
– but a comprehensive
assessment of PSBR.
Although the fiscal spending cuts will be proportional to the massive receipt
shortfall amounting to INR2.5t this year, the spending burden of the central
government could be transferred to various central public sector enterprises (CPSEs)
to mitigate the adverse economic impact – as explained
here
and just like in the past
few years. Notwithstanding the spending cuts by the center worth INR1.3t and
another INR4t by states in FY19, spending/borrowings of the CPSEs ensured
negligible adverse economic impact but at the same time crowded-out the private
sector.
Since the central government’s reliance on extra-budgetary resources (EBR) has
increased massively, reported fiscal deficit (RFD) needs to be carefully topped up
with (net) borrowings of various government agencies to arrive at the center’s true
adjusted fiscal deficit (adj. FD). Our
calculations
suggest that the CG’s adj. FD
increased from a 9-year low of 4.8% in FY17 to 5.4% in FY18 and further to a 6-year
high of 6.3% of GDP in FY19. Including the states’ fiscal deficit, the public sector
borrowing requirement (PSBR) was at least 8.8% of GDP in FY19, up from 7.6% two
years ago in FY17
(Exhibit 3).
21 January 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 3:
PSBR was
at least
8.8% of GDP in FY19
(% of
9.7
0.3
4.0
10.8
0.8
4.0
10.4
0.7
3.9
Center
9.1
0.6
4.2
7.8
0.6
3.3
3.9
7.4
1.0
2.4
4.0
6.8
1.7
1.8
3.3
5.1
1.0
1.5
2.5
States
10.7
2.3
2.4
Off-budget tansactions
10.4
1.0
2.9
7.9
1.1
2.1
4.8
9.5
1.7
1.9
5.9
Combined FD
8.8
2.9
2.5
3.4
8.5
1.6
2.0
4.9
8.3
1.6
2.2
4.5
8.1
1.4
2.6
4.1
7.6
1.4
2.3
3.9
7.6
1.3
2.8
3.5
7.8
1.9
2.4
3.5
5.5
6.0
5.7
4.3
6.0
6.5
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
States’ fiscal deficit excludes UDAY impact in FY16/FY17
Source: RBI, Budget documents, Company reports, MOFSL
While fiscal spending cuts by the center and states are inevitable (probably to the
tune of INR5t or more) in FY20 as well, CPSEs and thus, PSBR would determine the
economic impact. If CPSEs borrow more and push PSBR higher (like in FY19), then
despite the center and states’ spending cuts, there would be no fiscal contraction.
Why is it important to target bond yield?
India’s fiscal (center +
states) debt has risen from
almost 3-decade low of
66.6% in FY15 to ~70% of
GDP in FY18 and will likely
cross 71% of GDP in FY20.
According to the revised FRBM architecture, the aim is to attain central government
debt to GDP ratio of 40% (v/s 48% in FY19RE) and general government debt to GDP
ratio of 60% (v/s ~70% in FY19RE) by 2024-25. During the past few years, however,
India’s fiscal (center + states) debt has risen from almost 3-decade low of 66.6% in
FY15 to ~70% of GDP in FY18 and is likely to cross 71% of GDP for the first time in a
decade this year
(Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 5:
…and interest rate was higher than GDP growth
for the first time in 17 years
g - r (RHS)
19
13
71.5
66.6
7
1
-5
(0.8)
(0.4)
Nominal GDP (g)
Eff int rate (r)
16
11
6
1
(4)
Exhibit 4:
India’s general government debt has risen in the
past few years…
92
84
76
68
60
FY88 FY92 FY96 FY00 FY04 FY08 FY12 FY16 FY20E
(% of GDP)
Government Debt
Source: RBI, Bloomberg, MoFSL
The gap between GDP
growth and interest rate
turned negative for the first
time in 17 years, making
government finances
unsustainable.
What’s worse, during FY15-19, fiscal debt increased despite the positive difference
between GDP growth and the effective interest rate. With nominal GDP growth
expected at 7.3% and effective interest rate at ~7.7% in FY20, the gap between
growth and interest rate (g - r) will likely turn negative for the first time in 17 years,
making government finances unsustainable
(Exhibit 5).
Thus, targeting and capping
the benchmark bond yield is of paramount importance.
21 January 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
NOTES
21 January 2020
4
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21 January 2020
6