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Pre-Budget I: Will fiscal policy match monetary policy?
It must if bond yield is the new target
21 January 2020
The Economy Observer
With the RBI’s three back-to-back ‘Operation Twist’ transactions (OTTs), wherein it bought longer-dated securities
amounting to INR300b and sold short-term treasuries worth INR253b, it is clear that the RBI (a) does not want to add
meaningfully to its balance sheet, and (b) is targeting bond yields, wanting the yield curve to flatten.
The OTTs, thus, are likely intended to offset the adverse impact of INR500-700b additional borrowings expected to be
announced by the central government in 4QFY20 and keep the 10-year yield range-bound at ~6.6%, even after the
supply hits the markets.
However, recent developments – such as rise in crude oil prices, confirmed massive receipt shortfall and higher
inflation – have brought back the benchmark 10-year bond yield to ~6.65%, only marginally lower than 6.70% before
the first OTT was announced on 19 Dec’19 and as against 6.50% at the beginning of Jan’20.
th
If the policy makers still want to target the bond yield and wish to keep it contained at ~6.6%, the fiscal policy has to
match the monetary policy. This implies that the government must refrain from issuing additional dated securities to
restrict the impact on the benchmark bond yield. Also, the higher fiscal deficit, if any, must be financed through short-
dated bills and/or other non-market instruments such as NSSF, etc. With no further supply of dated securities, the 10-
year bond yield is likely to remain range-bound and additional issuances of T-bills may flatten the curve more – in line
with the monetary policy objective.
Alternatively, the spending burden could be transferred to various CPSEs to mitigate the adverse economic impact.
While issuances of sovereign bonds will remain unchanged, higher public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR) should
keep the financial markets generally tight.
India’s fiscal (center + states) debt has increased from an almost 3-decade low of 66.6% in FY15 to ~70% of GDP in FY18
and is likely to cross 71% of GDP for the first time in a decade this year. Thus, targeting and capping the benchmark
bond yield is of paramount importance because the gap between GDP growth and interest rate has turned negative
for the first time in 17 years in FY20, making government finances unsustainable.
Recent developments have
brought back the 10-year
bond yield to ~6.65%, only
marginally lower than
6.70% before the first OTT
was announced.
What is the objective of RBI’s Operation Twist?
Beginning mid-Dec’19, the RBI conducted three weekly Operation Twist transactions
(OTTs), under which it bought longer-dated securities (maturing in 2029) worth
INR300b and sold short-term treasuries (maturing in 2020) amounting to INR253b.
The fourth such OTT is scheduled for 23
rd
Jan’20. Thus, it is clear that the RBI (a)
does not want to significantly expand its balance sheet by holding more sovereign
bonds amid massive foreign capital inflows
(Exhibit 1),
and (b) is targeting bond
yields and wants the yield curve to flatten. Therefore, we believe that the OTTs are
likely intended to offset the adverse impact of additional borrowings (of INR500-
700b) expected to be announced by the central government in 4QFY20 and keep the
10-year yield range-bound at 6.6-6.7%, even after the supply hits the markets.
However, recent developments – such as rise in crude oil prices, likely shortfall in
disinvestment, confirmed massive tax receipt shortfall and higher inflation – have
brought back the benchmark 10-year bond yield to ~6.65%, only marginally lower
than 6.70% before the first OTT was announced on 19
th
Dec’19 and as against 6.50%
at the beginning of Jan’20
(Exhibit 2).
Nikhil Gupta
– Research analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1555
Yaswi Agrawal
– Research analyst
(Yaswi.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 7193 4196
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