31 January 2019

Market snapshot

Equities - India

Sensex

Nifty-50

Nifty-M 100

Equities-Global

S&P 500

Nasdaq

FTSE 100

DAX

Hang Seng

Nikkei 225

Commodities

Brent (US$/Bbl)

Gold ($/OZ)

Cu (US$/MT)

Almn (US$/MT)

Currency

USD/INR

USD/EUR

USD/JPY

YIELD (%)

10 Yrs G-Sec

10 Yrs AAA Corp

Flows (USD b)

FIIs

DIIs

Volumes (INRb)

Cash

F&O

Note: *Average

Close

35,591

10,652

16,792

Close

2,681

7,183

6,942

11,182

10,897

20,557

Close

61

1,320

6,120

1,891

Close

71.1

1.1

109.0

Close

7.3

8.6

30-Jan

0.02

0.07

30-Jan

377

11,191

Chg .%

0.0

0.0

0.5

Chg .%

1.6

2.2

1.6

-0.3

0.3

-0.5

Chg .%

0.8

0.6

1.5

0.9

Chg .%

0.0

0.4

-0.3

1MChg

0.00

0.01

MTD

-0.5

0.5

MTD*

309

8,881

CYTD.%

-1.3

-1.9

-6.1

CYTD.%

6.9

8.3

3.2

5.9

7.6

2.7

CYTD.%

15.3

2.9

2.9

1.5

CYTD.%

1.9

0.1

-0.6

CYTDchg

0.0

0.1

CY18

-4.6

15.9

CYTD*

309

8,881

Today’s top research idea

ICICI Bank: Earnings normalization on track, asset quality

stabilizing



PAT stood at INR16.0b in 3QFY19, lower than our estimate of INR20.7b due to

higher provisions of INR42.4b (our estimate: INR33.9b). Asset quality improved,

with fresh slippages moderating to INR20.9b (our estimate: INR30b).



Advances grew ~12% YoY, with the domestic book growing by 14% YoY (22%

YoY growth in retail loans; portfolio buyout of INR68.5b). Overseas book

declined by 5.4% YoY, with the mix down to 11.9%. Deposit growth was also

healthy at 17% YoY (CASA growth of 15% YoY).



ICICIBC is in the midst of an improvement in the operating environment

(stressed asset resolution and growth pick-up) and is showing healthy signs of

earnings normalization. With asset quality stabilizing, credit costs are likely to

moderate meaningfully, boosting the return ratios. We cut our FY19/20E

earnings by 4.9%/0.3%, and estimate ICICIBC to deliver ~1.4% RoA by FY21.

Reiterate Buy with an SOTP-based TP of INR450 (2.1x Sep'20E ABV).

Research covered

Cos/Sector

ICICI Bank

IOCL

NTPC

Bajaj Auto

Torrent Pharma

LIC Housing Fin

Bharat Electronics

Key Highlights

Earnings normalization on track, asset quality stabilizing

Core refining performance improves

Under-recoveries continue dragging earnings

Margin miss driven by adverse FX

Characterized by sustained DF traction, robust US biz growth

Sluggish quarter on the business front; PAT in line

Big beat on higher-than-estimated margins

CIFC | CSTRL | JUBI | KECI | CROMPTON | STR | AJP | HEXW |

Other Results

ASBL | MASFIN | GRAN

AGIS | BHARTI | DABUR | HMN | HMCL | IHFL | NMDC | PLNG |

Results Expectation

PWGR | UPLL | VEDL

Chart of the Day: ICICI Bank –

Earnings normalization on track, asset quality stabilizing

Domestic NIM stable QoQ at 3.72%

Retail loans continue driving loan growth

Source: MOSL, Company

Source: MOSL, Company

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

In the news today

Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link

1

Fed keeps key rate

unchanged and pledges to be

'patient'

The Federal Reserve is keeping

its key interest rate unchanged

and signaling that it could leave

rates alone in coming months

given economic pressures and

mild inflation…

2

ICICI Bank sacks Chanda Kochhar

The ICICI Bank has decided to terminate the contract of former

managing director and CEO, Chanda Kochhar after the B.N. Srikrishna

panel found that she violated the bank’s code of conduct. The bank

also said there would be a clawback of bonuses paid between 2009

and 2019…

3

Airtel Africa gets $200-million

investment from Qatar

Investment Authority

Airtel Africa will raise $200

million, or around Rs 1,420

crore, from Qatar Investment

Authority (QIA) through an issue

of primary shares, Bharti Airtel

said in a statement on

Wednesday. The funds will be

used to reduce the Africa unit’s

debt, thereby also strengthening

Bharti Airtel’s consolidated

books…

4

India Inc foreign borrowing

trebles to $3.81 bn in

December

Foreign borrowing of Indian

companies nearly trebled from

the year-ago period to USD 3.81

billion in December 2018,

according to data from the

Reserve Bank of India…

5

Patanjali moves NCLT for

considering Ruchi Soya offer

Patanjali Ayurveda has moved

the National Company Law

Tribunal (NCLT) with a plea to

direct lenders of stressed Ruchi

Soya to consider its offer since

Adani Wilmar has expressed in

writing its wish to withdraw its

offer citing “delays” in the

resolution process…

6

Jet Airways may turn to Adani

Group for investment

Jet Airways promoter-chairman

Naresh Goyal is understood to

have approached the Adani

Group with a proposal to invest

in his ailing airline, which is in

dire need of funds...

7

Vedanta, ONGC, 37 others put

in 145 bids in oilfield auction

Vedanta and many little-known

private players emerged the

dominant bidders in the second

round of auction for discovered

small fields in which 39 companies

bid for 24 oil and gas contract

areas…

31 January 2019

2

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Financials - Banks

ICICI Bank

Buy

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

ICICIBC IN

Earnings normalization on track, asset quality stabilizing

6,436



PAT stood at INR16.0b in 3QFY19, lower than our estimate of INR20.7b due to

2352.7 / 33.1

higher provisions of INR42.4b (our estimate: INR33.9b). Asset quality improved,

383 / 257

3/27/5

with fresh slippages moderating to INR20.9b (our estimate: INR30b).

6893



NII grew 20.5% YoY to INR68.7b in the quarter. Margin improved 7bp QoQ to 3.4%,

100.0

CMP: INR365

TP: INR450 (+23%)

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

FY19E FY20E FY21E

Y/E March

261.6 300.1 352.7

NII

231.3 270.9 325.8

OP

49.2 129.7 173.9

NP

3.2

3.3

3.3

NIM (%)

7.7 20.2 27.0

EPS (INR)

-30.8 163.7 34.1

EPS Gr (%)

166.0 180.7 201.2

BV/Sh (INR)

134.4 151.6 174.0

ABV/Sh (INR)

191.9 218.0 253.7

Cons. BV/Sh (INR)

Cons. ABV/Sh (INR) 160.3 188.9 226.5

4.7 11.8 14.3

RoE (%)

0.5

1.2

1.4

RoA (%)

Valuations

1.9

1.7

1.4

P/BV (x) (Cons)

2.3

1.9

1.6

P/ABV (x) (Cons)

1.9

1.7

1.4

P/ABV (x)*

32.9 12.5

9.3

P/E (x)

0.7

1.5

1.8

Div. Yield (%)

*Adjusted for investment in subsidiaries









mainly led by a healthy recovery in one of the large NPL accounts (+17bp impact).

Core fee income grew ~16% YoY, with retail forming 73% of total fees.

Advances grew ~12% YoY, with the domestic book growing by 14% YoY (22% YoY

growth in retail loans; portfolio buyout of INR68.5b). Overseas book declined by

5.4% YoY, with the mix down to 11.9%. Deposit growth was also healthy at 17% YoY

(CASA growth of 15% YoY). CASA ratio stood at 49.3% v/s 50.8% in 2QFY19.

Fresh slippages moderated sharply to INR20.9b. This, along with healthy

recoveries/upgrades and resolution, drove a 79bp/107bp QoQ decline in the

GNPL/NNPL ratios to 7.75%/2.58%. ICICIBC sold INR21.5b of NPLs on a cash basis,

which further contributed to NPL reduction. PCR rose sharply by 903bp QoQ to

68.5% (~76% incl. TWO). ICICIBC carries healthy coverage of 89.6%/71.4% on NCLT

list-1/list-2 (total exposure: INR126.4b fund-based and INR8.6b non-fund based).

Quantum of BB and below loans declined to INR188b (INR217.9b in 2QFY19).

Other highlights:

(a) Share of retail loans stood at 59% (+170bp QoQ). (b) BB and

below assets accounted for 93% of total corporate slippages of INR10.2b. (c) Opex

increased by 21% YoY due to retiral provisions.

Valuation and view:

ICICIBC is in the midst of an improvement in the operating

environment (stressed asset resolution and growth pick-up) and is showing healthy

signs of earnings normalization. With asset quality stabilizing, credit costs are likely

to moderate meaningfully, boosting the return ratios. We cut our FY19/20E

earnings by 4.9%/0.3%, and estimate ICICIBC to deliver ~1.4% RoA by FY21.

Reiterate

Buy

with an SOTP-based TP of INR450 (2.1x Sep’20E ABV).

FY19E

2,61,645

1,48,067

4,09,712

1,78,431

2,31,282

-6.5

1,68,216

63,065

13,874

49,191

-27.4

6,367

5,867

496.6

148.9

70.0

FY19

3QE

66,291

39,847

1,06,138

43,476

62,662

23.9

33,935

28,727

8,043

20,683

25.3

5,778

5,698

522.8

198.7

62.0

v/s

Est

4%

-3%

1%

6%

-2%

(237

25%

-34%

-63%

-22%

NM

5%

-1%

-1%

-18%

650

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance

Net Interest Income

Other Income

Total Income

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

% Change (YoY)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax

Net Profit

% Change (YoY)

Operating Parameter

Deposit (INR b)

Loan (INR b)

Asset Quality

Gross NPA (INR b)

Net NPA (INR b)

PCR (%)

1Q

55,898

33,879

89,778

37,944

51,833

-0.6

26,087

25,746

5,256

20,490

-8.2

4,863

4,641

431.5

253.1

41.3

FY18

FY19E

FY18

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

57,091 57,053

60,217 61,019 64,176

68,753

67,698 2,30,258

51,862 31,669

56,786 38,518 31,565

38,829

39,155 1,74,196

1,08,953 88,721 1,17,003 99,537 95,741 1,07,581 1,06,853 4,04,455

39,088 38,144

41,863 41,453 43,244

46,117

47,617 1,57,039

69,865 50,578

75,140 58,084 52,497

61,464

59,236 2,47,415

-34.3

-8.4

47.0

12.1 -24.9

21.5

-21.2

-6.6

45,029 35,696

66,258 59,713 39,943

42,442

26,119 1,73,070

24,836 14,882

8,882 -1,629 12,554

19,023

33,118

74,346

4,254 -1,621

-1,318

-434 3,465

2,974

7,869

6,571

20,582 16,502

10,200 -1,196 9,089

16,049

25,249

67,774

-33.7 -32.4

-49.6 -105.8 -55.8

-2.7

147.5

-30.9

4,986

4,828

444.9

241.3

45.8

5,174

5,054

460.4

238.1

48.3

5,610

5,124

540.6

278.9

48.4

5,469

5,163

534.6

241.7

54.8

5,587

5,445

544.9

220.9

59.5

6,068

5,643

515.9

162.5

68.5

6,367

5,867

496.6

148.9

70.0

5,610

5,124

540.6

278.9

48.4

31 January 2019

3

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas

IOC

Buy

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

IOCL IN

Core refining performance improves; op. environment to get

9,479

1307.7 / 18.4

better post elections

214 / 106



Core GRM stood at USD9.2/bbl

in 3QFY19 (our estimate: USD4.3/bbl;

-1/-16/-34

3QFY18: USD6.1/bbl; 2QFY19: USD3.5/bbl). CP GRM, excluding the impact of

2017

price lags, stood at USD5.15/bbl. Higher GRM, combined with higher

45.9

CMP: INR135

TP: INR183 (+36%)

Financials & Valuations (Cons.)(INR b)

Y/E March

2019E

2020E 2021E

Sales

5,502

6,653

7,209

EBITDA

321.2

332.3

348.3

Adj. PAT

130.7

154.4

167.1

Adj. EPS (INR)

13.8

16.3

17.6

EPS Gr. (%)

(42.3)

18.1

8.2

BV/Sh.(INR)

126.7

134.3

142.5

RoE (%)

11.2

12.5

12.7

RoCE (%)

8.6

8.6

8.5

Payout (%)

52.2

53.7

53.1

Valuations

P/E (x)

9.8

8.3

7.6

P/BV (x)

1.1

1.0

0.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.1

5.9

5.7

Div. Yield (%)

4.6

5.6

5.9

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

throughput, resulted in core EBITDA of INR122.7b (our estimate: INR102.3b;

+93% YoY, +164% QoQ). However, inventory losses stood at INR80.8b for

refining and INR26.6b for marketing, as against our total estimate of

INR69.7b. This resulted in significantly lower reported EBITDA of INR15.3b

versus our estimate of INR32.7b. Forex gain stood at INR20.8b v/s INR6.3b in

3QFY18 and a loss of INR26.2b in 2QFY19. PAT came in at INR7.2b. Effective

tax rate for the quarter appears high at 46%, but stands lower at 34.5% for

9MFY19.



Higher GRM was on account of increase in distillate yield

to 81.1% in

3QFY19 from 79.5% in 2QFY19 and an improvement in fuel and loss to 8.4%

from 8.8% in 2QFY19. Refining throughput of 19mmt reflects 109%

utilization.



Marketing margin came in tad lower than our estimate.

Inclusive of

inventory loss, the implied marketing margin stood at INR3.5/lit (our

estimate: INR3.9/lit; 3QFY18: INR4/lit; 2QFY19: INR5.7/lit). Domestic sales of

refined products stood at 20.3mmt (+3% YoY, +9% QoQ).



Petrochemical EBITDA declined 38% YoY/QoQ

to INR9.7b – USD207/mt v/s

USD353/mt in 2QFY19. Sales stood at 0.65mmt (+9% YoY, +2% QoQ).

Valuation and view



The lack of clarity on crude oil prices, possible inability to pass on the

increase in cost to auto fuel prices (if oil prices were to rise) and poor

refining margins have posed headwinds for the OMCs over the past few

months. In our view, the stocks would again be in focus post elections, when

we do not see any possibility of forced tinkering with auto fuel prices.



9MFY19 standalone PAT stands at INR107.9b. We cut our FY19 standalone

PAT estimate from INR148b to INR129b. Our FY20 and FY21 estimates are

largely unchanged. IOCL is trading at 8.3x consol. FY20E EPS of INR16.3 and

1.0x FY20E PBV. We expect RoE of ~13% in FY20/21. Dividend yield stands at

~6%. We value the stock at 1.3x (unchanged) Dec’20E PBV. With a TP of

INR183, we maintain our

Buy

rating.

31 January 2019

4

31 January 2019

5

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Utilities

NTPC

Buy

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

NTPC IN

8,245

1144.5 / 16.1

180 / 135

-6/-6/-17

1039

41.1

CMP: INR139

TP: INR195(+41%)

Under-recoveries continue dragging earnings

But capitalization may provide support

Standalone (S/A) PAT increased by just ~1% YoY to INR23.8b (below our estimate of

INR26.4b), as higher working capital led to an increase in interest cost. Higher

working capital/cash requirements would have impacted the company’s other

income as well, in our view, which declined by 40% YoY (45% miss). Moreover,

fixed charge u/recoveries continued, given coal shortages/plant unavailability. PAT

adjusted for prior period and u/recoveries declined ~8% YoY.



Fixed charge u/recoveries declined 16% QoQ to INR2.8b in 3QFY19.

Management guided for a decline in u/recoveries to ~INR7.5b in FY19 (v/s

~INR11b in 9MFY19 and ~INR14b in FY18), given the improvement in coal

availability and the restart of Unchahar unit #6 (500MW).



Interest cost rose 20% YoY to INR12.8b, as working capital increased due to

higher receivables for the renewable business and ongoing advance to railways

for preferential rake allotment.



Core RoE (on adj. PAT) declined ~140-190bp YoY/QoQ to 18.5%.



Commercial capacity declined ~500MW QoQ to 52.4GW, given

decommissioning of Badarpur (705MW), partly offset by the acquisition of

Barauni (220MW). FY19 target was maintained at ~4.8GW (our estimate:

3.6GW).

Drag from low availability to reduce; capitalization to drive earnings growth

We expect NTPC’s core performance to improve in FY20 as u/recoveries reduce.

This apart, NTPC has a strong pipeline of projects. We expect a CAGR (FY18-21) of

~16%/11% in NTPC’s regulated equity/PAT. RoE is estimated to increase to ~13% by

FY21 as capitalization picks up. Our DCF-based TP is INR195/sh. Maintain

Buy.

var.

(%)

7

-6

-10

-10

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2019E 2020E 2021E

Net Sales

931.8 1,026.3 1,129.2

EBITDA

273.9 324.2 377.5

PAT

110.2 131.1 152.5

EPS (INR)

13.4

15.9

18.5

Gr. (%)

25.2

19.0

16.3

BV/Sh (INR)

133.0 141.7 152.4

RoE (%)

10.3

11.6

12.6

RoCE (%)

6.7

7.5

8.4

P/E (x)

10.4

8.7

7.5

P/BV (x)

1.0

1.0

0.9

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

Quarterly Performance (standalone) – INR m

Y/E March

1Q

Sales

201,076

Change (%)

6.6

EBITDA

52,684

Other income

6,626

PBT

34,654

Tax

8,472

PAT

26,182

Change (%)

10.5

Adj. PAT

25,388

Change (%)

5.6

A. Core PAT

23,178

Core RoE (%)

21.1

a. Base RoE @15.5% 17,058

b. PLF incentive

549

c. Others

5,571

B. Other income

2,210

Key metrics

Regulated Equity

439,927 487,680 505,625 509,207 509,207 519,934 521,059 574,361 509,207 574,361 519,934

Commercial cap.(MW) 40,749 43,619 44,492 44,500 44,500 45,300 44,815 46,665 44,500 46,665 45,300

Coal-based PLF (%)

79.1

76.6

76.9

79.0

78.0

72.6

77.7

FY18

FY19

FY18

FY19E

FY19

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

3QE

198,518 207,151 234,000 228,637 226,310 238,104 179,863 840,057 872,913 222,931

2.3

6.8

14.6

13.7

14.0

14.9

-23.1

7.6

55,933 52,177 62,097 61,149 59,623 62,699 74,102 222,203 257,573 66,586

2,616

3,135

5,176

1,364

2,249

1,877

3,438 17,553

8,927

3,400

32,228 25,848 36,883 31,712 30,046 31,795 42,933 128,925 136,487 35,410

7,842

2,240

7,627

5,831

5,786

7,941 12,296 25,493 31,854

8,978

24,386 23,608 29,256 25,881 24,260 23,854 30,637 103,432 104,633 26,431

-2.3

-4.4

40.7

-1.1

-0.5

1.0

4.7

10.2

1.2

12.0

27,015 27,797 28,000 29,410 27,475 25,526 28,813 108,200 111,224 28,431

15.4

23.8

5.2

15.8

1.7

-8.2

2.9

12.4

2.8

2.3

24,988 25,354 24,601 28,305 25,617 24,095 26,422 98,005 104,439 25,847

21.6

20.4

19.4

22.2

19.9

18.5

19.3

20.6

19.3

20

17,972 19,245 19,662 19,732 19,940 20,169 20,799 73,938 80,640 20,147

660

450

1,200

1,270

340

970

1,100

2,859

3,680

700

6,356

5,658

3,739

7,303

5,338

2,956

4,522 21,208 20,119

5,000

2,027

2,443

3,399

1,105

1,858

1,431

2,391

10,195

6,785

2,584

0

-1

31 January 2019

6

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles

Bajaj Auto

Buy

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

BJAUT IN

289

723.1 / 10.2

3473 / 2425

-7/-3/-24

1448

50.7

CMP: INR2,499



TP: INR3,045(+22%)

Margin miss driven by adverse FX; expect volume growth of 8-10% in FY20

Product mix, FX hurt realization:

Revenue increased 16% YoY (-7.5% QoQ) to

INR74b (our estimate: ~INR75.5b), led by 26% YoY volume growth. Realization

declined 7.8% YoY (-1.7% QoQ) to INR58.8k/unit (our estimate: INR59.9k/unit),

led by the unfavorable product mix and the FX impact (-50bp QoQ).



EBITDA margin impacted by multiple factors:

Gross margin shrank 460bp YoY

(-60bp QoQ) to 27% (in-line). EBITDA declined 7.5% YoY to INR11.7b (our

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2019E 2020E 2021E

estimate: INR12.1b), translating into an EBITDA margin of 15.6% (our estimate:

Net Sales

296

327

359

16%; -400bp YoY, -150bp QoQ). The sequential contraction in the margin was

EBITDA

48.5

55.8

59.6

led by the impact from low 3W sales (-40bp), RM (-40bp) and FX (-50bp).

PAT

46.1

51.3

55.1

However, higher other income, lower depreciation and lower tax led to a 16%

EPS (INR)

159

177

190

YoY increase in PAT to INR11b (our estimate: INR10.6b). For 9MFY19,

Gr. (%)

5.2

11.3

7.4

revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 24.1%/9.1%/11.9% YoY.

BV/Sh (INR)

737

819

908

RoE (%)

22.8

22.8

22.0



Management commentary:

(a) Domestic motorcycle industry to grow by 8-

RoCE (%)

20.7

29.6

28.6

10% in FY20. 3QFY19 retails increased ~8%. (b) BJAUT’s dealer inventory at ~6

P/E (x)

15.7

14.1

13.1

weeks. (c) Targets 2W market share of 24% (from 20% currently). (d) Took price

P/BV (x)

3.4

3.1

2.8

increase of INR700/unit for CT100. (e) Higher sales of Platina helping BJAUT to

Estimate change

attain EBITDA breakeven in Economy segment. (f) Expects domestic 3W sales of

TP change

~100k (+10% QoQ, -18% YoY) in 4QFY19. (g) Motorcycle exports to emerging

Rating change

markets to grow 8-10% in FY20. (h) USD/INR realization at 68.9 (v/s 69.4 in

2QFY19). FX hedging for FY20 underway; should realize 71/USD if the spot rate

remains stable. (i) ‘Urbanite’ electric 2W will be launched in 6-9 months.



Valuation view:

BJAUT trades at 14.1x/13.1x FY20/21E EPS. Maintain

Buy

with

a target price of INR3,045 (~16x Mar’21E consol. EPS).

Quarterly Performance

Volumes ('000 units)

Growth YoY (%)

Realization (INR/unit)

Growth YoY (%)

Net Sales

Change (%)

RM/Sales %

Staff cost/Sales %

Oth. Exp./Sales %

EBITDA

EBITDA Margins (%)

Other Income

Interest

Depreciation

PBT

Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Adj. PAT

Change (%)

E: MOSL Estimates

1Q

888

-10.7

61,258

6.0

54,424

-5.3

70.0

5.0

7.8

9,384

17.2

4,573

2

753

12,881

3,642

28.3

9,469

(3.2)

FY18

2Q

3Q

1,072

1,001

3.8

17.6

61,408 63,783

4.7

7.2

65,799 63,876

8.7

26.1

69.1

68.2

4.0

4.2

7.2

8.2

12,984 12,498

19.7

19.6

2,964

2,086

5

3

770

747

15,174 13,833

4,055

4,309

26.7

31.1

11,119

9,524

(1.0)

3.0

FY19E

2Q

3Q

1,339

1,260

25.0

25.8

59,815 58,812

-2.6

-7.8

80,118 74,094

21.8

16.0

72.2

72.8

3.9

4.3

6.9

7.4

13,680 11,561

17.1

15.6

3,565

4,700

3

36

715

634

16,527 15,591

5,002

4,572

30.3

29.3

11,525 11,019

3.7

15.7

(INR M)

FY18

FY19E

4QE

1,140

4,007

4,966

9.1

9.3

23.9

59,076 62,806 59,556

-8.6

5.7

(5.2)

67,346 251,649 295,751

-0.3

15.5

17.5

72.2

69.4

72.2

4.7

4.2

4.3

7.7

7.7

7.3

10,457 47,290 48,511

15.5

18.8

16.4

3,610 13,473 15,919

-32

13

10

655

3,148

2,704

13,443 57,602 61,716

4,092 17,145 18,669

30.4

29.8

30.3

9,351 41,001 43,047

(11.9)

6.7

5.0

FY19

3QE

1,260

25.8

59,926

(5.8)

75,496

18.5

72.8

4.2

7.1

12,107

16.0

4,000

3

730

15,375

4,728

30.8

10,647

11.8

Var.

(%)

0.0

-1.9

-1.9

4Q

1,045

32.7

64,618

3.9

67,550

37.9

69.5

4.0

7.4

12,969

19.2

3,667

3

879

15,754

5,138

32.6

10,616

32.4

1Q

1,227

38.1

60,485

-1.3

74,193

36.3

71.4

4.2

7.1

12,814

17.3

4,044

3

700

16,156

5,003

31.0

11,152

17.8

-4.5

-40bp

17.5

1.4

3.5

31 January 2019

7

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare

Torrent Pharma

Neutral

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

TRP IN

Characterized by sustained DF traction, robust US biz growth

169



In-line performance:

Revenue grew 35% YoY to INR19.9b (our estimate:

313.3 / 4.4

INR20.1b) in 3QFY19, largely driven by the addition of Unichem’s portfolio

1960 / 1224

5/26/38

and robust growth in the US business. Gross margin shrank ~270bp YoY (-

424

30bp QoQ) to 70.2% due to a change in the product mix. However, EBITDA

28.8

CMP: INR1,852

TP: INR1,660(-10%)

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2019E 2020E

Net Sales

78.7

90.0

EBITDA

20.5

24.0

PAT

8.2

11.6

EPS (INR)

48.7

68.5

Gr. (%)

-9.3

40.6

BV/Sh (INR)

322.5 366.3

RoE (%)

16.4

19.9

RoCE (%)

11.8

13.5

P/E (x)

38.0

27.0

P/BV (x)

5.7

5.1

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

margin expanded ~220bp YoY to 26.5%, driven by lower other expense (-

500bp YoY as % of sales). Absolute EBITDA grew ~47% YoY to INR5.3b (in-

line), largely led by strong revenue growth. Other income declined to

2021E

INR30m from INR740m in 3QFY18. Reported PAT stood at INR2.5b (our

102.3

estimate: INR2.1b). There was one-time income of INR630m related to

27.5

14.1

patent settlement and expense of INR280m related to litigation cost.

83.4

Adjusting for this, PAT declined ~10% YoY to INR2.2b (our estimate: INR2b).

21.7

For 9MFY19, sales stood at INR57.5b (+34% YoY), EBITDA at INR14.8b (+50%

419.5

YoY) and PAT at INR5.9b (-7% YoY).

21.2

14.9



DF/US business drive revenue growth:

DF business (41% of sales) grew 43%

22.2

YoY to INR8.4b, led by better traction in the base portfolio and the addition

4.4

of Unichem products. US base business (20% of sales) grew ~42% YoY, led by

improved sales of new launches, increased market share in existing

molecules and higher demand for the generic versions of a few products.

Germany business (13% of sales) grew by 14% YoY. Brazil business (~8% of

sales) de-grew by ~13% YoY, mainly due to a slowdown in the economy, but

TRP expects the performance to pick up in 4Q.



Earnings call takeaways:

(1) Price erosion in the US business was in single-

digit. (2) TRP filed six ANDAs in 3Q and 15 YTD. (3) Forex loss in 3QFY19 was

INR140m. (4) TRP maintained its guidance of INR6b debt reduction in FY19.

(5) MR count stands at 4,400, with productivity at INR0.62m/month.



Valuation and view:

We raise our EPS estimate for FY19/20/21 by

2%/5%/9% to INR49/INR68/INR83 to factor in robust growth in the US

business and the sustained outperformance in DF. We roll forward our

target to 12M forward PER to arrive at a target price of INR1,660 (from

INR1,500 earlier @ 20x 12M forward earnings). Maintain Neutral due to

limited upside potential from current levels.

31 January 2019

8

Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

(INR m)

Y/E March

FY18

FY19E

FY18 FY19E

Est.

Var.

INR m

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

3QE vs Est

Net Revenues

13,740 14,290 14,770 17,220 18,720 18,940 19,880 21,185 60,020 78,725 20,068 -0.9%

YoY Change (%)

-8.8

1.6

4.5

24.7

36.2

32.5

34.6

23.0

2.5

31.2

35.9

EBITDA

2,970 3,290 3,590 3,640 4,770 4,730 5,260 5,709 13,490 20,469 5,257

0.1%

Margins (%)

21.6

23.0

24.3

21.1

25.5

25.0

26.5

26.9

22.5

26.0

26.2

Depreciation

800

840

940 1,510 1,500 1,520 1,560 1,533 4,090 6,113 1,519

Interest

560

510

800 1,210 1,220 1,260 1,330 1,192 3,080 5,002 1,240

Other Income

1,050

780

740

420

270

100

30

300 2,990

700

200

PBT before EO Expense

2,660 2,720 2,590 1,340 2,320 2,050 2,400 3,284 9,310 10,054 2,698

Extra-Ord Expense

0

0 -1,810

-500

0

0

-350

0 -2,310

0

0

PBT after EO Expense

2,660 2,720 4,400 1,840 2,320 2,050 2,750 3,284 11,620 10,054 2,698

1.9%

Tax

780

680 2,010

-940

690

260

290

570 2,530 1,810

648

Rate (%)

29.3

25.0

77.6

-70.1

29.7

12.7

12.1

17.3

27.2

18.0

24.0

Reported PAT

1,880 2,040

580 2,280 1,630 1,790 2,460 2,714 6,780 8,244 2,051 20.0%

Adj PAT

1,880 2,040 2,390 2,780 1,630 1,790 2,152 2,714 9,090 8,244 2,051

YoY Change (%)

-35.6

-30.1

15.5

21.4

-13.3

-12.3

-9.9

-2.4

-2.6

-9.3

-14.2

Margins (%)

13.7

14.3

16.2

16.1

8.7

9.5

10.8

12.8

15.1

10.5

10.2

E: MOSL Estimates

31 January 2019

9

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

LICHF IN

505

205 / 2.8

627 / 388

4/-21/-36

1077

59.7

LIC Housing Finance

Buy

30 January 2019

Results Flash | Sector: Financials

CMP: INR434

Sluggish quarter on the business front; PAT in line



Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

2019E 2020E

NII

41.4

47.1

PPP

38.5

43.8

Adj. PAT

231.8 283.5

Adj. EPS (INR)

45.9

56.1

EPS Gr. (%)

16.5

22.3

BV/Sh (INR)

325

371

RoAA (%)

1.4

1.5

RoE (%)

15.0

16.1

Payout (%)

17.5

17.5

Valuations

P/E (x)

9.5

7.7

P/BV (x)

1.3

1.2

Div. Yield (%)

1.6

1.9

2021E

54.5

50.8

330.2

65.4

16.5

425

1.5

16.4

17.5

6.6

1.0

2.3

LIC Housing Finance’s (LICHF) PAT increased 26% YoY to INR5.7b (in-line),

driven by stable loan growth and low base of last year.



Surprisingly, business was impacted due to the liquidity crisis. Individual

disbursements (incl. LAP) were up only 2% YoY to INR115b in the quarter,

while corporate disbursements increased 27% YoY to INR12b.



Loan book grew 3% QoQ/ 16% YoY to INR1.81t. Given the lower balance

transfers due to the tight liquidity situation, repayment rate (annualized)

declined meaningfully from 20% to 16% YoY. The individual lending

repayment rate of 15.3% was the lowest in the past 14 quarters.



There was a marginal shift towards non-core loans – share of LAP and

builder loan increased 80bp QoQ to 23%.



NII grew 41% YoY as the company recognized a net loss on ‘modification of

loans’ amounting to INR149m in 9MFY19 v/s INR1.6b in 9MFY18. Adjusted

for this, NII growth was 18%. We await management clarity on the same.



On a calculated basis, spreads remained sequentially stable at 1.3%. We

reiterate our theory that the worst of spreads is behind us and LICHF should

be able to maintain/improve spreads, going forward (refer to our

Upgrade

Note).



Asset quality was stable with Gross Stage 3 loans unchanged at 1.25%.

However, retail lending GNPLs have been inching up (from 47bp in 3QFY18

and 81bp in 2QFY19 to 93bp in 3QFY19).

Valuation and view:

Over the past 2-3 years, LICHF has grown at ~15% CAGR,

largely driven by non-core loans. It has experienced an elevated repayment rate

due to heightened competition. Now that liquidity is less abundant, we believe

LICHF is better placed given its parentage and AAA credit rating. We expect

competitive intensity to subside, leading to a lower repayment rate and better

growth. Additionally, spreads should be stable or even improve, going forward.

We look to revise our estimates and TP post the analyst concall on 31

st

Jan’19.

31 January 2019

10

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,591

S&P CNX

10,652

Bharat Electronics

Buy

30 January 2019

Results Flash | Sector: Capital Goods

CMP: INR84



Big beat on higher-than-estimated margins; orders at ~INR21b (+76% YoY)

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2019E 2020E

Net Sales

120.1 136.5

EBITDA

23.9

26.5

NP

15.6

17.1

EPS (INR)

6.4

7.0

EPS Gr. (%)

11.4

9.7

BV/Sh. (INR)

35.6

39.8

RoE (%)

17.9

17.6

RoCE (%)

18.9

18.6

Payout (%)

35

35

Div. Yield

2.7

2.9

2021E

153.9

28.6

18.2

7.5

6.3

44.2

16.9

17.8

35

3.1













Sales at INR27.2b (+8% YoY) were below our estimate of INR29.6b (Consensus

INR28.5b); the muted sales growth was driven by EVM deliveries, IACCCS, and

LR SAM.

Gross margin came in at 53.8% (+10.3% YoY) v/s our estimate of 43%.

EBITDA came in at INR7.7b (+73% YoY). Margin was at 28.3% (+10.5% YoY) v/s

our estimate of 16.7% (Consensus 16.3%).

Other income was at INR176m v/s our estimate of INR200m.

Tax rate was at 28% v/s our estimate of 30%.

PAT came in at INR5.1b (+68% YoY) v/s our estimate of INR3.1b (Consensus

INR2.9b).

Orders were at INR21b (+76% YoY) and order book at INR484b (+20% YoY).

(INR m)

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Sales

Change (%)

EBITDA

Change (%)

As of % Sales

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Reported PAT

Change (%)

Adj PAT

Change (%)

1Q

17,218

97.6

1,656

-455

9.6

561

3

700

1,793

540

30.1

1,253

247.2

1,253

247.2

FY18

FY19

FY18

FY19 MOSL

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

3QE

24,731 25,057 36,085 21,021 33,814 27,165 38,111 103,223 120,111 29,637

45.2

22.7

-9.5

22.1

36.7

8.4

5.6

19.9

16.4

17.9

5,928 4,452 7,962 3,105 8,544 7,681 4,590 19,997 23,920 4,937

75

-8

-19

88

44

73

-42

14

20

11

24.0

17.8

22.1

14.8

25.3

28.3

12.0

19.4

19.9

16.7

590

594

766

689

743

797

526 2,510 2,755

650

0

0

10

3

0

0

10

13

13

2

532

492

279

89

143

176

393 2,004

800

200

5,870 4,350 7,465 2,502 7,944 7,060 4,447 19,478 21,952

4485

1746

1322

1878

705

2230

1984

1447

5486

6366

1350

29.8

30.4

25.2

28.2

28.1

28.1

32.5

28.2

29.0

30.1

4,124 3,028 5,587 1,797 5,713 5,076 3,000 13,992 15,586

3135

19.1

-18.9

-29.4

43.4

38.5

67.6

-46.3

-9.6

11.4

3.5

4,124 3,028 5,587 1,797 5,713 5,076 3,000 13,992 15,586

3135

19.1

-18.9

-29.4

43.4

38.5

67.6

-46.3

-9.6

11.4

3.5

Var

-8.3

55.6

57.4

61.9

61.9

31 January 2019

11

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

2019E 2020E

Total Income

33.9

38.9

PPP

22.0

25.3

Adj. PAT

12.1

13.5

EPS (INR)

77.2

86.4

EPS Gr. (%)

24.0

11.8

BV (INR)

393

470

BVPS Gr. (%)

21

20

RoAA (%)

2.4

2.3

RoE (%)

21.5

20.0

Valuations

P/E (x)

14.7

13.1

P/BV (x)

2.9

2.4

Div. Yield (%)

0.6

0.7

S&P CNX

10,652

30 January 2019

Results Flash | Sector: Financials

Cholamandalam Inv & Fin

CMP: INR1,132

Strong performance in a tough environment

2021E

43.4

28.3

15.1

96.3

11.5

557

18

2.2

18.8

11.8

2.0

0.7

Buy

CIFC reported 3QFY19 PAT of INR3.04b (+39% YoY), 2% below our estimate.

The company reported a robust performance across segments.



Despite a weak festival season and tight liquidity through the quarter, CIFC

delivered 13% YoY disbursement growth (our estimate: +3% YoY). Growth

was broad based across segments. As a result, AUM was up 6% QoQ/29%

YoY to INR503b.



NIM on AUM (calc.) compressed ~50bp YoY, but was stable sequentially at

7.0%. As a result, total income grew 22% YoY to INR8.7b. As opex grew only

12% YoY, PPoP increased 29% YoY to INR5.6b.



In vehicle finance, the loan mix remains largely stable.



Borrowings were flat QoQ at INR468b. The mix remained stable, with banks

comprising 45% of borrowings and NCD/CP comprising 24%/10%.



Asset quality remained pristine, with a largely unchanged GNPL ratio of

2.7%. PCR was stable at 45%.

Valuation view:

CIFC has a diversified portfolio, both geographically and

product-wise. It is expanding into new segments like home loans and MSME

financing. With strong branch expansion, a focus on new products and an

improvement in the broader economy, CIFC should deliver high-teens AUM

CAGR over the medium term. However, we look to closely monitor two things –

margin trajectory and asset quality.



31 January 2019

12

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,591

S&P CNX

10,652

Castrol India

TP: INR228(+40%)

Buy

30 January 2019

Results Flash | Sector: Oil & Gas

CMP: INR163

Conference Call Details

Date:

31 January 2019

Time:

2:00Pm IST

Dial-in details:

022-62801164/

022-71158065

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Dec

2018 2019E

Sales

EBITDA

PAT

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh.(INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

39.0

10.7

7.1

7.2

2.4

11.8

64.8

64.9

20.4

12.4

40.1

8.9

5.9

6.0

-16.6

12.4

49.4

49.5

24.5

11.8

th

Margins driven by higher realizations

Operational:



Sales volumes increased 6% QoQ to 54.0m liters in 4QCY18.



Realization improved 7% YoY (+6% QoQ) to INR191/liters.



Gross margin stood at INR92.6/liters v/s INR88.7/liters in 3QCY18 and

INR97.7/liters in 4QCY17.



EBITDA stood at INR58.8/liters v/s INR44.5/liters in 3QCY18 and INR56.4/liters

in 4QCY17.

Financials:



Net sales increased 7% YoY (+11% QoQ) to INR10b.



Reported EBITDA increased 4% YoY (+26% QoQ) to INR3b.



PAT grew 8% YoY (+21% QoQ) to INR2b.

2020E

40.9

8.5

6.2

6.3

5.2

Castrol plans to invest ~INR1.4b at the Silvasa plant.

13.0

The company has also recommended a final dividend of INR2.75/share for CY18.

49.5

49.6

23.3

11.2

31 January 2019

13

Jubilant Foodworks

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

JUBI IN

132

158.2 / 2.2

1575 / 903

-3/-11/13

2392

55.1

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Retail

CMP: INR1,199

TP: INR1,300(+8%)

Strong all-round performance drives huge beat

High base to keep incremental earnings growth under check



Neutral

Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI)

reported 16.8% sales growth YoY to INR9.3b (est.

INR8.9b) with same store sales (SSS) growth of 14.6% YoY (v/s our est. of 10%).

Total store count stood at 1,200, with 33 new Dominos’ stores (35 stores

opened, two stores shut) in 3QFY19. EBITDA grew 24.6% YoY to INR1.7b (est. of

INR1.4b). Adj. PAT grew by 46.2% to INR965m (est. of INR748m).

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2019E 2020E 2021E



9MFY19 performance:

Sales, EBITDA and Adj. PAT grew 21.1%, 44.4% and

79.9%, respectively. Gross margin was down 10bp YoY to 74.9% while EBITDA

Net Sales

35.3

41.1

47.0

margin expanded 280bp YoY to 17.3%.

EBITDA

6.1

6.9

7.8

PAT

3.3

3.7

4.3



Concall highlights:

(1)

More than 50% of the store additions over the last few

EPS (INR)

24.8

28.1

32.9

years have been in existing areas. While this is beneficial over the medium-to-

Gr. (%)

67.1

13.1

17.1

long term, it could pressurize SSSG in the short term;

(2)

Management does not

BV/Sh (INR)

89.2 105.3 122.0

expect any pressure on ‘delivery’ manpower costs, going forward.

RoE (%)

27.9

26.7

27.0

RoCE (%)

30.5

28.9

29.0



Valuation & View:

We have raised our FY19/FY20 EPS by 10.7%/0.8% led by

beat in 3QFY19. While performance during the quarter was creditable,

P/E (x)

48.2

42.7

36.4

challenges to earnings growth will emerge owing to the extremely high base of

P/BV (x)

13.4

11.4

9.8

26.5%, 25.9% and 20.5% SSSG for the next three quarters. Despite our

assumption of 2-year CAGR of 15-17% SSSG going forward, SSSG is likely to be

relatively muted. Moreover, with store expansion now resuming, fixed cost

Estimate change

TP change

absorption will be a challenge until new stores scale up. Initially, we also expect

Rating change

an adverse impact on SSSG of older stores in proximity to the newly opened

store. Over the past two years, gains were seen in overall EBITDA margin level

due to improvement in the 'Dunkin' Donuts' business; from a very high level of

losses to breakeven stage now, which we believe is unlikely to sustain at the

same pace. FY19E EBITDA margins are close to record high levels (third highest

in history). Uncertainty over incremental earnings' growth trajectory means

that valuations at 42.7x FY20 EPS are fair. We maintain Neutral rating with an

unchanged target price of INR1,300 (target multiple of 41x, 20% discount to

historical average).

Quarterly Standalone Perf.

Y/E March

No of Stores

LTL Growth (%)

Net Sales

YoY Cha nge (%)

Gross Profit

Gros s Ma rgi n (%)

EBITDA

EBITDA Growth %

Ma rgi ns (%)

Depreci a ti on

Other Income

PBT

Ta x

Ra te (%)

Adjusted PAT

YoY Cha nge (%)

E: MOSL Estimates

1Q

1125

6.5

6,788

11.5

5,183

76.4

796

37.8

11.7

462

30

364

125

34.4

238

25.6

FY18

2Q

1125

5.5

7,266

9.2

5,388

74.1

1,022

59.0

14.1

326

36

733

248

33.8

485

124.8

FY19

2Q

1167

20.5

8,814

21.3

6,575

74.6

1,475

44.4

16.7

385

108

1,199

422

35.2

777

60.2

(INR Million)

3Q

1200

14.6

9,291

16.8

7,019

75.6

1,706

24.6

18.4

373

138

1,471

506

34.4

965

46.2

4QE

1,215

8.0

8,605

10.3

6,485

75.4

1,480

15.9

17.2

422

113

1,172

381

32.5

791

16.1

Stnd. Consol.

FY18 FY19E

1134

1215

13.9

17.3

29,804 35,260

17.1

18.3

22,290 26,452

74.8

75.0

4,464

6,082

81.0

36.2

15.0

17.2

1,559

1,545

227

431

3,132

4,969

1,068

1,689

34.1

34.0

2,064

3,279

173.5

58.9

FY19

3QE

1187

10.0

8,866

11.5

6,634

74.8

1,438

5.0

16.2

432

120

1,125

377

33.5

748

13.3

Var.

(%)

4.8%

5.8%

18.7%

3Q

1127

17.8

7,952

20.7

5,926

74.5

1,369

113.7

17.2

393

33

1,009

349

34.6

660

230.6

4Q

1134

26.5

7,798

27.3

5,794

74.3

1,278

111.1

16.4

378

127

1,027

346

33.7

681

355.8

1Q

1144

25.9

8,551

26.0

6,373

74.5

1,421

78.5

16.6

366

71

1,126

380

33.7

747

213.2

30.7%

29.0%

31 January 2019

14

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,591

S&P CNX

10,652

Tata Communications

TP: INR670 (+37%)

Buy

30 January 2019

Results Flash | Sector: Telecom

CMP: INR490













Adj. data EBITDA up 4% QoQ

Consolidated revenue grew 5% QoQ (+4% YoY) to INR42.7b, primarily led by

strong growth in data revenue and partly offset by drop in voice revenue.

Consolidated EBITDA at INR8.4b, grew 33% QoQ (38% YoY) on the back of

revenue growth; margins expanded 420bp QoQ to 19.7%.

However, adjusting for one-offs, consolidated revenue grew 3% QoQ (in-line),

while EBITDA stood flat QoQ (in-line). Margins dropped 35bp to 15.1%.

PAT came in at INR1.7b (v/s INR16m in 2QFY19, our estimate of INR483m) led

by healthy EBITDA growth. Adjusting for one-offs, net loss stood at INR231m.

Capex increased to INR5b (USD69m) v/s INR4.6b QoQ.

Net debt increased to USD1.29b (v/s USD1.25b QoQ) due to higher mix of data

revenue impacting working capital.

Conference Call Details

Date:

31st Jan 2019

Time:

02:30pm IST

Dial-in details:

+91- 22 6280 1364

2019E

Y/E Mar

Net Sales

166.3

EBITDA

29.8

NP

2.4

EPS (INR)

8.3

EPS Gr. (%)

617.7

BV/Sh. (INR)

31.2

RoE (%)

34.2

RoCE (%)

5.9

P/E (x)

58.7

P/BV (x)

15.7

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.4

2020E

183.4

38.6

10.2

35.7

328.3

66.9

72.8

11.2

13.7

7.3

5.2

2021E

200.9

42.9

13.4

47.0

31.5

113.9

52.0

13.3

10.4

4.3

4.2

Segmental Split



Voice revenue continued its downward spiral with 6% QoQ decline to INR9.4b

(-23% YoY, 5% miss). Voice EBITDA plunged 18% QoQ to INR759m (margin

contracted 120bp to 8%) due to one-offs in 2QFY19.



Data revenues grew at a healthy 8.4% QoQ (+14% YoY) to INR33.3b on the

back of healthy growth across segments. Ex one-offs, data revenues grew

5.4% QoQ to INR32.3b (3% above our estimate).



Data EBITDA recorded 42% QoQ jump (+35% YoY) to INR7.7b. However, ex

one-offs, data EBITDA grew 4% QoQ (in-line) impacted by higher losses in the

Growth and Innovation segment. Consequently, Data EBITDA margin at 17.2%

contracted 30bp QoQ (-225bp YoY).

FY18

FY19

FY18 FY19E

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

42,474 41,146 40,086 39,438 40,682 42,695 43,505 1,66,508 1,66,320

-5.8

-5.6

-6.6

-8.5

-4.2

3.8

8.5

-5.5

-0.1

36,531 35,019 34,531 33,569 34,381 34,269 34,317 1,43,595 1,36,535

5,943 6,128 5,555 5,869 6,302 8,426 9,188 22,914 29,784

14.0

14.9

13.9

14.9

15.5

19.7

21.1

13.8

17.9

4,837 4,728 5,052 4,849 5,006 5,235 4,857 19,063 19,946

877

896

910

909

979 1,040

957 3,445 3,884

-6

740 2,330

-70

86

192 1,119 3,805 1,327

223 1,244 1,922

41

404 2,343 4,492 4,211 7,280

2,134

0 1,621

0

-16

0

0 3,755

-16

-1,911 1,244

301

41

419 2,343 4,492

456 7,296

588 1,050 1,451

641

418

667 1,482 3,549 3,209

-30.8

84.4 481.6 1,560.6

99.6

28.5

33.0 778.2

44.0

1

92

60

-15

-15

-58

281

193

193

-2,500

101 -1,210

-585

16 1,733 2,729 -3,286 3,894

-366

-37

411

-585

1

231 2,729

331 2,376

NM

NM

-48.6

NM

NM

NM 563.4

-89.0 617.7

-0.9

-0.1

1.0

-1.5

0.0

0.5

6.3

0.2

1.4

(INR m)

3Q v/s est

FY19E

(%)

41,408

3

0.6

35,046

-2

6,362

32

15.4 437bps

5,005

5

899

16

336

-43

793

195

0

793

195

262

33.0

48

483

258

483

-52

-1,413.6

1.2

Cons. Quarterly Earning Model

Y/E March

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

Total Expenditure

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT before EO expense

Exceptional expense (gain)/loss

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

MI & P/L of Asso. Cos.

Reported PAT

Adj PAT

YoY Change (%)

Margins (%)

E: MOSL Estimates

1Q

43,100

-3.3

37,514

5,586

13.0

4,447

761

444

822

0

822

461

56.0

39

322

322

-76.2

0.7

31 January 2019

15

Crompton Gr. Con

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

CROMPTON IN

In-line performance supported by healthy ECD sales

627



Operating performance in line with estimates:

CROMPTON reported strong

135.2 / 1.9

3QFY19 sales at INR10.3b (up 10% YoY), in line with our estimate of

272 / 190

INR10.2b, on healthy performance of the Electric Consumer Durables (ECD)

-2/-7/-9

194

segment (INR7.1b, +16% YoY). But, its Lighting segment disappointed,

65.6

declining 2.4% YoY to INR3.2b. EBITDA grew 8% YoY to INR1.3b supported by

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods

CMP: INR220

TP: INR270(+23%)

Buy

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2019E 2020E

Net Sales

45.0

51.7

EBITDA

6.0

7.3

PAT

3.8

4.8

EPS (INR)

6.0

7.7

Gr. (%)

16.1

28.6

BV/Sh (INR)

15.7

19.6

RoE (%)

42.4

43.7

RoCE (%)

27.1

32.1

P/E (x)

36.7

28.5

P/BV (x)

14.0

11.2

2021E

59.4

8.6

5.9

9.4

21.5

24.4

42.6

38.0

23.5

9.0



Estimate change

TP change

Rating change



better revenue mix and cost-saving program implemented by the company.

EBIDTA margin compressed 20bp YoY to 12.2% on weak margins in the

Lighting division (EBIT margins of 8.9% v/s 13.8% in 3QFY18). Net profit grew

15% YoY to INR0.8b, ahead of our estimate of INR0.7b, supported by higher-

than-estimated other Income (INR124m v/s INR66m in 3QFY18). For

9MFY19, Sales/EBIDTA/PAT grew 11%/14%/18%.

Op margin decline restricted to 20bp YoY, despite weak performance from

the Lighting segment:

Gross margins declined 140bp YoY to 31.7% impacted

by input cost pressure and competitive intensity, limiting price hikes in

business category. However, operating margin decline was limited to 20bp

YoY to 12.2% supported by cost rationalization measures taken by the

company. Although lighting margins declined by 500bp YoY, sequential

margin improvement has been witnessed (+260bp), and Crompton expects

margins in double-digits by next quarter-end. Consumer Durables, which

accounted for 69% of revenue (v/s 65% in 3QFY18), registered 50bp margin

expansion to 18.7%. Ad spends for 3QFY19 stood at INR190m as against

INR160m in 3QFY18.

Valuation and view:

We like CROMPTON for its strong product portfolio,

established brand, market leadership, wide distribution network, and robust

RoE/RoCE profile. We maintain our BUY rating, with a TP of INR270 (35x

FY20E EPS, in line with its historical P/E multiple since listing).

FY18

FY19

FY18

FY19 Vs Est.

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

3Q

9,597 9,382 11,263 12,039 10,378 10,303 12,318 40,797 45,038 10,200

9.8

6.7

7.6

14.1

8.1

9.8

9.4

4.6

10.4

8.7

1,207 1,165 1,645 1,673 1,239 1,261 1,785 5,310 5,958 1,245

19.3

19.8

27.5

29.3

2.7

8.3

8.5

9.6

12.2

6.9

12.6

12.4

14.6

13.9

11.9

12.2

14.5

13.0

13.2

12.2

32

32

31

31

32

33

38

126

134

35

157

158

161

152

150

150

159

637

611

158

35

66

109

88

98

124

128

308

439

70

1,054 1,040 1,562 1,578 1,155 1,202 1,717 4,854 5,651 1,122

346

345

530

535

386

405

567 1,617 1,893

380

32.8

33.2

33.9

33.9

33.4

33.7

33.0

33.3

33.5

33.9

708

695 1,032 1,043

769

797 1,149 3,238 3,758

742

22.3

27.9

29.0

30.0

8.6

14.7

11.3

14.3

16.1

6.7

708

695 1,032 1,043

769

797 1,149 3,238 3,758

742

23.3

27.9

32.4

30.0

8.6

14.7

11.3

14.3

16.1

6.7

Crompton: Quarterly Estimates (Standalone)

Y/E March

Sales

Change (%)

EBITDA

Change (%)

As of % Sales

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Adjusted PAT

Change (%)

Reported PAT

Change (%)

1Q

10,554

-3.7

1,294

-17.8

12.3

32

162

97

1,198

395

33.0

802

(14.2)

802

(14.2)

(INR m)

Var.

(%)

1.0%

1.3%

7.1%

7.5%

7.5%

31 January 2019

16

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Utilities

JSW Energy

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

JSW IN

1,640

111.4 / 1.6

90 / 56

-1/8/-21

117

25.1

CMP: INR68

TP: INR73(+8%)

Neutral

Higher merchant rates drive strong performance

Net debt reducing; EV remains an overhang; Maintain Neutral

JSW Energy (JSWE) had a solid quarter on back of strong merchant realization.

EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR7.4b (our est. of INR5.8b). Interest cost declined

13% YoY / 4% QoQ to INR2.9b as FCF was used to repay debt. Other income was

down ~20% YoY to INR0.7b. Reported PAT increased from INR0.5b in 3QFY18 to

INR1.5b in 3QFY19.



Generation increased 3.5% YoY to 5.1BU. Revenue increased 21% YoY to

INR24.2b.



Standalone realization increased 17% YoY / 3% QoQ to INR5.04/kWh, while fuel

cost increased by ~14% YoY / down 4% QoQ to INR3.7/kWh. This resulted in

standalone EBITDA increasing 71% YoY to INR3.1b (INR1.05/kWh margin) — a

key driver of the strong performance and beat to estimates.



Merchant rates in the quarter were boosted by strong growth in electricity

demand and shortage of domestic coal. JSWE’s merchant sales increased ~3x

QoQ to 1.1BU.



Reported net debt was down INR2.9b QoQ to INR107b as JSWE continues to

pay down its debt.

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2019E 2020E 2021E

Net Sales

930.5 972.2 996.3

EBITDA

28.2

31.9

32.1

PAT

6.2

7.5

6.8

EPS (INR)

3.8

4.6

4.1

Gr. (%)

24.5

21.8 -10.0

BV/Sh (INR)

69.0

71.2

72.9

RoE (%)

5.5

6.5

5.7

RoCE (%)

7.2

7.9

7.6

P/E (x)

18.0

14.8

16.5

P/BV (x)

1.0

1.0

0.9

EV remains an overhang; Maintain Neutral

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

We have upgraded EBITDA and PAT estimates by ~6% / ~27% for FY19 on beat in

3QFY19. JSWE’s earnings visibility and predictability has improved with increase in

share of long-term PPAs. Capex into new ventures like electric vehicle (EV) and

solar is happening at a slower pace. Strong FCF generation is driving deleveraging.

JSWE is best placed to benefit from consolidation in the power sector, which can

drive an upside to earnings. However, its venture into the EV business with likely

capital outlay of ~USD1b will impact FCF generation in the next couple of years. EV

is likely to be a long-gestation business, which will hit RoE and drag equity value for

several years. We maintain Neutral with SOTP-based TP of INR73/share.

FY18

FY19

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

20,490 19,932 17,751 23,606 24,308 24,217 20,921

0.1

4.7

-4.7

5.8

18.6

21.5

17.9

11,667 14,079 13,536 15,843 15,694 16,830 16,481

8,824 5,853 4,215 7,762 8,613 7,387 4,441

43.1

29.4

23.7

32.9

35.4

30.5

21.2

2,449 2,407 2,377 2,899 2,933 2,933 2,975

3,910 3,406 3,235 3,130 3,083 2,948 2,850

1,705

879 1,039

673 1,370

701

769

4,170

920

-358 2,407 3,967 2,208

-616

0

0 4,179

0

0

0

0

4,170

920 -4,537 2,407 3,967 2,208

-616

1,202

198

19

236 1,125

638

-7

28.8

21.5

-0.4

9.8

28.3

28.9

1.1

-1

254

275

-121

-317

109

129

2,969

469 -4,831 2,292 3,160 1,461

-738

2,969

469

-634 2,292 3,160 1,461

-738

36.6 119.1 -361.9

5.5

6.4 211.8

16.5

FY18

80,490

-2.6

52,909

27,580

34.3

9,661

14,513

4,649

8,056

4,179

3,876

2,532

65.3

564

780

4,959

-21.2

FY19E

93,051

64,848

28,204

30.3

11,740

12,011

3,513

7,965

0

7,965

1,991

25.0

-200

6,174

6,174

24.5

FY19

3QE

22,118

11.0

16,352

5,766

26.1

2,950

2,950

664

530

0

530

133

25.0

35

363

363

-22.6

vs Est

(%)

9

3

28

-1

0

6

316

316

Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) – INR million

Y/E March

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

Total Expenditure

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT before EO expense

Extra-Ord expense

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

MI and Associates

Reported PAT

Adj PAT

YoY Change (%)

1Q

22,316

-8.9

13,628

8,688

38.9

2,428

3,963

1,025

3,323

0

3,323

1,114

33.5

36

2,173

2,173

-40.7

303

31 January 2019

17

30 January 2019

3QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare

Ajanta Pharma

Buy

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

AJP IN

Lower exports, higher operating costs impact earnings

88



Revenues in line; higher operational cost hurts margin:

Ajanta Pharma (AJP)

95.9 / 1.3

reported its 3QFY19 revenue down 17% YoY to INR4.8b (in-line), largely due

1468 / 898

-7/0/-24

to lower exports, down 27% YoY to INR3b (64% of sales). The decline was

416

offset to some extent by 9% YoY growth in domestic formulation (36% of

29.5

CMP: INR1,090

TP: INR1,390 (+28%)

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

FY19E FY20E

Net Sales

20.4

23.3

EBITDA

5.6

6.5

PAT

3.9

4.6

EPS (INR)

43.7

51.9

Gr. (%)

-17.5

18.7

BV/Sh (INR)

268.6

312.7

RoE (%)

17.5

17.9

RoCE (%)

17.5

17.9

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

24.9

4.1

21.0

3.5

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

sales) to INR1.7b. Gross margin (GM) contracted 144bp YoY to 79.8%, mainly

due to increased raw material prices and change in product mix. EBITDA

margin contracted at higher rate of 990bp YoY on higher employee

FY21E

cost/other expenses, up 700bp/145bp YoY (as % of sales). The increased

26.9

operational cost is associated with newer facilities at Dahej and Guwahati.

7.4

Absolute EBITDA declined 42% YoY to INR1.1b (our estimate: INR1.2b).

5.3

60.0

Reduced margins, higher depreciation and tax rate led to PAT decline of 51%

15.6

YoY to INR727m (our estimate: INR837m). For 9MFY19, sales/EBITDA/PAT

363.6

declined 4%/14%/19% YoY to INR15.4b/INR4.4b/INR3b.

17.7



On-track to file 10-12 ANDAs in FY19:

For 9MFY19, AJP filed eight ANDAs

17.7

and received 10 ANDA approvals (7-final and 3-tentative), taking the number

18.2

of cumulative approvals to 24. AJP has already commercialized 21 ANDAs

3.0

and has 17 ANDAs pending for approval. It has maintained its guidance of

10-12 filings for FY19.



Other

key

highlights:

(1)

R&D spend for the quarter stood at INR450m (9%

of sales), (2) AJP has withdrawn its appeal against the NCLT order rejecting

its amalgamation with Gabs Investment.



Valuation and view:

We cut our FY19/20/21 EPS estimates by 4%/8%/8% to

INR44/INR52/INR60 to factor in a muted 3Q and increased operational costs

associated with newer facilities. We roll to 24x (unchanged) 12M forward

earnings to arrive at a TP of INR1,390 (prior: INR1,482). We remain positive

on AJP, given its healthy growth in Branded Generics and in the US.

Buy.

(INR m)

FY18

2Q

5,404

4.8

3,567

1,837

34.0

146

1

92

1,783

0

1,783

464

26.0

1,319

1,319

0.9

24.4

3Q

5,870

10.1

3,896

1,975

33.6

150

1

152

1,975

0

1,975

501

25.3

1,475

1,475

3.4

25.1

4Q

5,303

11.2

3,908

1,395

26.3

166

1

52

1,280

0

1,280

335

26.2

945

945

-22.5

17.8

1Q

5,110

8.0

3,535

1,575

30.8

172

2

81

1,483

0

1,483

425

28.7

1,058

1,058

11.6

20.7

FY19E

2Q

3Q

5,441 4,851

0.7

-17.4

3,779 3,698

1,662 1,153

30.5

23.8

175

187

0

1

152

44

1,640 1,010

0

80

1,640

930

385

261

23.5

28.0

1,255

669

1,255

727

-4.8

-50.7

23.1

15.0

FY18

FY19E

4QE

5,024 21,308 20,426

-5.3

6.5

-4.1

3,838 14,794 14,849

1,186 6,514 5,576

23.6

30.6

27.3

191

596

724

-1

4

2

29

311

306

1,024 6,225 5,156

0

80

1,024 6,225 5,076

239 1,539 1,309

23.3

24.7

25.8

785 4,686 3,767

785 4,686 3,826

-16.9

-8.9

-18.3

15.6

22.0

18.7

FY19

3QE

4,772

3,531

1,241

170

45

1,116

1,116

279

837

837

vs Est

(%)

1.7

4.7

-7.1

9.8

-2.0

-9.5

-16.7

-6.6

-20.0

-13.2

1Q

4,731

-0.6

3,424

1,307

27.6

134

1

16

1,187

0

1,187

239

20.1

948

948

-20.7

20.0

Consolidated - Quarterly Earning Model

Y/E March

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

Total Expenditure

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT before EO expense

Extra-Ord expense

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

Reported PAT

Adj PAT

YoY Change (%)

Margins (%)

E: MOSL Estimates

31 January 2019

18

Hexaware Technologies

BSE SENSEX

35,591

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,652

HEXW IN

Revenue traction intact but lopsided

302

95.9 / 1.3



Marginal revenue beat, but profitability short of expectations:

4QCY18 CC

557 / 295

revenue grew 3.4% QoQ, above our estimate of +2.1%. EBITDA margin

-1/-28/-14

contracted 140bp QoQ to 15.3% (60bp miss), led by seasonal furloughs and

892

wage hike. PAT declined 28.3% QoQ to INR1,234m, below our estimate of

37.3

30 January 2019

4QCY18 Results Update | Sector: Technology

CMP: INR322

TP: INR365(+13%)

Neutral

INR1,365m (-21% QoQ) due to lower operational income and higher forex

losses (INR248m v/s our estimate of INR153m).

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

2017 2018E 2019E



Large deal wins drive sanguine revenue guidance…:

For CY19, HEXW

Y/E Dec

guided for 12-14% USD revenue growth v/s 11.6% in CY18. It stated that

Net Sales

46.5

55.0

62.1

EBITDA

7.3

8.6

9.7

most of the guidance will be clocked in the later part of the year due to

PAT

5.8

6.5

7.4

seasonality and 4Q base, in addition to USD100m net new wins in BPO in a

19.3

21.5

24.4

EPS (INR)

customer that will ramp up in September. HEXW also expects the

16.5

11.3

13.5

Gr. (%)

performance to be more broad-based and is confident on increasing

79.7

89.5

101.1

BV/Sh (INR)

revenue traction in ADM, DA (Testing) and BI.

26.5

25.5

25.6

RoE (%)

24.7

25.3

25.4



…but EBITDA post-ESOP to remain below 16%:

HEXW guided that growth in

RoCE (%)

margins will mirror that in revenue, implying CY19 margins at ~15.7% (post-

17.2

15.4

13.6

P/E (x)

4.2

3.7

3.3

P/BV (x)

ESOP charges). The cost of delivering business at onsite in the US is going

up, but HEXW will not sacrifice market share, which may exert pressure on

Estimate change

margins at onsite. This may be partly offset by the levers of employee

TP change

pyramid and utilization.

Rating change



Valuation view:

Factoring in the traction in 4Q and the better-than-

expected guidance for CY19, we raise our revenue estimate by 1.2/1.1% for

CY19/20. Margins is where we are building in some caution, given the

supply pressures stated in the recent two quarters – we cut our margin

estimate by 70/50bp for CY19/20. Consequently, our EPS estimate has been

lowered by 3.1%/0.7% for CY19/20. Profitability trends drive some caution

in our valuation outlook, and our price target of INR365 (13% upside)

discounts forward earnings by 15x. Maintain

Neutral.

Quarterly Perform ance (Indian GAAP)

Y/E Dec

Revenue (USD m)

QoQ (%)

Revenue (INR m)

YoY (%)

GPM (%)

SGA (%)

EBITDA

EBITDA Margin (%)

EBIT Ma rgi n (%)

Other i ncome

ETR (%)

PAT

QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

EPS (INR)

Headcount

Uti l i za ti on (%)

Attri ti on (%)

Offs hore rev. (%)

E: MOSL Es ti ma tes

1Q

144.7

4.2

9,605

17.1

34.1

17.2

1,623

16.9

15.3

28

23.8

1,139

-6.3

35.3

3.8

12,734

78.9

14.9

35.5

CY17

CY18

CY18E

CY19E

2Q

152.6

5.5

9,836

13.1

33.7

17.4

1,598

16.2

14.6

146

22.9

1,224

7.4

22.5

4.1

13,098

80.8

13.8

35.3

3Q

154.0

0.9

9,931

9.8

35.2

17.7

1,734

17.5

15.8

178

18.9

1,420

16.0

27.5

4.7

13,488

79.7

13.7

34.6

4Q

156.1

1.4

10,048

6.8

32.8

16.9

1,599

15.9

14.3

132

23.0

1,211

-14.7

-0.4

4.0

13,705

80.9

13.1

34.9

1Q

162.2

3.9

10,490

9.2

32.9

17.4

1,626

15.5

14.1

204

20.0

1,343

10.9

17.9

4.5

14,619

81.3

13.4

34.6

2Q

168.3

3.8

11,367

15.6

31.8

16.2

1,773

15.6

14.0

327

20.0

1,534

14.2

25.3

5.1

15,357

78.2

14.4

34.8

3Q

171.1

1.7

12,096

21.8

32.8

16.0

2,023

16.7

15.4

264

19.1

1,722

12.3

21.3

5.7

16,050

79.0

15.7

35.1

4Q

176.1

2.9

12,524

24.6

31.6

16.3

1,913

15.3

14.0

-215

19.9

1,234

-28.3

1.9

4.1

16,205

78.7

17.0

36.1

678

11.6

46,477

17.9

32.2

16.5

7,335

15.8

14.4

580

19.7

5,833

16.8

19.3

16,205

80.9

35.2

764

12.7

54,995

18.3

31.9

16.2

8,621

15.7

14.5

204

20.5

6,495

11.3

21.5

18,697

81.4

37.0

(INR Million)

Est. Var. (% /

bp)

4QCY18

174.0

1.2

1.7

123bp

12,562

-0.3

25.0

-38bp

32.2

-57bp

16.3

2bp

1,993 -8002bp

15.9

-59bp

14.6

-58bp

-117

83.8

20.5

1,365

-9.6

-20.8

-758bp

12.7 -1078bp

4.5

16,361

-1.0

79.0

-30bp

35.2

85bp

31 January 2019

19