12 September 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
31,882
0.6
Nifty-50
10,006
0.7
Nifty-M 100
18,735
0.9
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,488
1.1
Nasdaq
6,432
1.1
FTSE 100
7,414
0.5
DAX
12,475
1.4
Hang Seng
11,221
0.6
Nikkei 225
19,546
1.4
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
54
0.3
Gold ($/OZ)
1,327
-1.4
Cu (US$/MT)
6,729
0.9
Almn (US$/MT)
2,091
1.0
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
64.0
0.2
USD/EUR
1.2
-0.2
USD/JPY
110.3
0.1
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
6.6
0.0
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.5
0.0
Flows (USD b)
11-Sep
MTD
FIIs
-0.1
-0.6
DIIs
0.1
0.4
Volumes (INRb)
11-Sep
MTD*
Cash
296
296
F&O
4,827
4,830
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
19.7
22.2
30.5
YTD.%
11.1
19.5
3.8
8.7
19.4
2.3
YTD.%
-3.0
15.2
21.8
22.7
YTD.%
-5.7
12.8
-5.7
YTDchg
0.0
-0.1
YTD
6.2
7.0
YTD*
290
5,274
Today’s top research idea
TATA Motors: JLR – new products to drive volumes, Fx to drive
margins; India business to breakeven in FY18
v
JLR is expected to outperform industry, with ~10% growth in FY18 retails (v/s
+4% in FY18 YTD), driven by new launches.
v
Fx hedge losses are expected to start moderating substantially from 4QFY18.
Based on the current spot rates, hedge losses for FY19 would be negligible.
JLR would now hedge up to 65% of net Fx exposure (v/s up to 85% earlier).
v
JLR’s FY18 EBIT margin is expected to be 6% (v/s 1.2% for 1QFY18), driven by
moderating incentives from 4QFY18, operating leverage, and favorable Fx. It
expects medium-term EBIT margin of 8-10% (in-line).
v
For standalone business, it targets cost savings of ~INR15b in FY18, driving
PAT breakeven in FY18 (v/s our est. of net loss of ~INR15.2b).
Research covered
Cos/Sector
IndusInd Bank
Tata Motors
Bharat Electronics
FoE - Economy
Key Highlights
IIB+BAHFIN = Most profitable universal bank
JLR: New products to drive volumes, Fx to drive margins
Capex of INR25b to capture future growth opportunities
Total savings to be lower in FY17 despite higher financial savings
Piping hot news
Govt mulls Rs10 trillion public financing for infrastructure projects
v
With bank credit drying up for large infrastructure projects, the National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is exploring a plan to raise Rs10 trillion
from retirees and provident fund beneficiaries, said transport minister Nitin
Gadkari.
Household financial savings and liabilities
% of GDP
Gross financial savings
Currency
Deposits*
Insurance, provident & pension funds
Claims on government
Shares & debentures
Financial liabilities
Net financial savings
Chart of the Day: Fuel or Engines (Economy: Total savings to be lower in FY17
despite higher financial savings)
FY12
10.7
1.2
6.3
3.3
(0.3)
0.2
3.3
7.4
FY13
10.7
1.1
6.4
3.3
(0.2)
0.2
3.3
7.4
FY14
10.6
0.9
6.1
3.3
0.2
0.2
3.2
7.4
FY15
10.4
1.1
5.2
3.9
0.0
0.2
3.0
7.4
FY16
11.2
1.4
5.2
3.9
0.5
0.3
3.2
8.0
FY17
12.0
-2.2
7.8
4.8
0.5
1.2
3.8
8.2
* Include bank deposits, non-bank deposits and (net) trade debt
Source: RBI, Central Statistics office (CSO),
MOSL Please note the data differ from the that in RBI’s annual report because RBI has provided data as % of GNDI not GDP
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.