Endurance Technologies
BSE SENSEX
31,798
S&P CNX
9,908
9 August 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
CMP: INR923
TP: INR1,059(+15%)
Buy
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Consolidated performance in-line
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INR m
Free float (%)
ENDU IN
141
136.4 / 2.1
999 / 518
11/44/-
291
17.5
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
55.9
63.7
72.7
Net Sales
7.6
8.9
10.5
EBITDA
3.3
4.1
5.3
PAT
23.5
29.3
37.9
EPS (INR)
9.9
24.7
29.5
Gr. (%)
122.9 148.0 177.7
BV/Sh (INR)
20.8
21.6
23.3
RoE (%)
15.6
18.1
20.7
RoCE (%)
39.3
31.5
24.3
P/E (x)
7.5
6.2
5.2
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
India business drives consolidated performance:
Consolidated net sales grew
7.6% YoY to INR15.5b (our estimate: INR15.8b), led by India business.
Consolidated EBITDA margin expanded 80bp YoY (flat QoQ) to 13.8% (our
estimate: 13.7%), led by internal cost control initiatives and ramp-up in
supplies to domestic customers.
Ramp-up with HMSI, RE and Yamaha drives India business:
Standalone
revenue grew 11.8% YoY (v/s 7.8% increase in domestic 2W industry volumes),
led by strong growth with HMSI, Royal Enfield (RE) and Yamaha. However,
moderation in aftermarket sales due to GST restricted growth. EBITDA margin
expanded 30bp YoY to 12.6% (our estimate: 11.8%), supported by lower other
expenses. Higher tax restricted PAT growth to 22% YoY to INR679m (our
estimate: INR602m).
EU business – better mix drives margins:
EU revenue declined 0.7% in INR
terms to INR4.7b (our estimate: INR5.2b). In EUR terms, growth was 5.6% (v/s
1% PV industry growth). Margin improved 110bp YoY (declined 180bp QoQ) to
16.4% (our estimate: 17.4%), driven by better mix. EBITDA was INR766m v/s
our estimate of INR910m. Lower other income dented PAT (INR286m v/s our
estimate of INR409m).
Earnings call highlights:
(a) ENDU expects its ABS product to be ready by
January 2019 (in tie-up with BWI Group); (b) Aftermarket sales impacted due to
GST, expect recovery in coming quarters; (c) Expects to penetrate products like
CVT, brakes, and clutches with new customers like HMSI and HMCL over the
next two years; (d) Won contract to supply components for EV application from
Porsche; (e) Die casting business to benefit from EV, as product platform has
20-year lifecycle v/s IC engines’ 7-8 years.
Valuation and view:
We cut our EPS estimates by 4.5% for FY18 and 2.7% for
FY19, as we cut EU business earnings and factor in increase in RM costs. We
believe ENDU offers strong growth potential, driven by newer products and
technology. We retain P/E multiple at 25x Sep-19E due to higher visibility on
growth drivers beyond FY19. Maintain
Buy
with TP of INR1,055.
FY18
2QE
3QE
16,250 15,680
12.2
18.8
60.0
58.5
9.0
9.6
18.7
18.4
2,235
2,175
13.8
13.9
760
790
57
57
95
110
1,513
1,438
29.4
30.1
1,068
1,005
19.6
35.2
FY17
4QE
16,246
17.7
58.2
9.5
18.1
2,307
14.2
825
56
120
1,546
30.1
1,081
29.4
55,880
6.8
57.7
9.8
19.0
7,555
13.5
2,905
322
319
4,646
28.9
3,303
9.9
FY18E
63,679
14.0
58.9
9.4
17.7
8,852
13.9
3,117
226
385
5,894
30.1
4,120
24.7
FY18
Var
1QE
(%)
15,819
-2.0
10.0
57.4
170bp
9.8 -30bp
19.0 -140bp
2,159
-1.1
13.7
10bp
775
55
100
1,429
-2.2
29.3 160bp
1,011
-4.5
21.6
Consol - Quarterly
Y/E March
(INR Million)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
RM Cost (% of sales)
Staff Cost (% of sales)
Other Expenses (% of sales)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Eff. Tax Rate (%)
Adj. PAT
YoY Change (%)
1Q
14,402
13.3
58.4
9.8
18.9
1,865
13.0
684
104
89
1,166
24.5
880
15.2
FY17
2Q
3Q
14,482 13,203
7.5
2.4
57.8
57.8
8.9
10.5
19.4
18.3
2,008
1,769
13.9
13.4
699
741
81
88
54
73
1,281
1,014
30.3
26.7
893
743
14.8
13.6
4Q
13,803
4.8
57.4
9.9
18.9
1,898
13.8
781
49
119
1,186
29.6
835
3.3
1Q
15,503
7.6
59.0
9.5
17.6
2,136
13.8
742
57
60
1,397
30.9
965
9.7
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jigar Shah - Research analyst
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5402
/Deep Shah
- Research analyst
(Deep.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.