Navneet Education
BSE SENSEX
31,109
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017
2018E
Y/E Mar
11.8
14.0
Net Sales
2.8
3.4
EBITDA
1.8
2.2
PAT
7.8
9.4
EPS (INR)
53.7
21.6
Gr. (%)
31.1
36.8
BV/Sh (INR)
26.8
27.8
RoE (%)
23.1
23.7
RoCE (%)
22.7
18.7
P/E (x)
5.7
4.8
P/BV (x)
S&P CNX
9,605
ICNT IN
Results exceed estimates; Exports to drive growth
233.6
EBITDA, PAT beat estimates:
NELI’s overall revenue rose 12% to INR2,098m
41.1 / 0.6
(est. of INR2,026m) in 4QFY17 from INR1,875m in the year-ago period, as
182 / 85
Stationery business grew ~21%. EBITDA grew 12% YoY from INR249m to
1/45/81
20
INR279m (est. INR243m), with the margin remaining flat at 13.3% (est. of
38.2
12%). Consequently, adj. PAT grew 80% YoY from INR94m to INR169m (est.
29 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Publishing
CMP: INR176
TP: INR226(+29%)
Buy
2019E
16.4
4.0
2.6
11.3
20.0
43.6
28.2
25.1
15.5
4.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
of INR130m). Consolidated results include subsidiary Indiannica’s
(Britannica) revenue of INR633m and PBT of INR254m only of 4Q. For FY17,
revenue grew by 24% to INR11.8b, EBITDA margin by 210bp to 23.8% and
PAT by 51% to INR1,811m.
Publication and Stationery deliver healthy growth:
In FY17, Publication
revenue grew by 15% to INR5,959m and Stationery revenue by 20% to
INR49,332m. Publication revenue includes export sales of INR226m (up
118%) and government sales of INR119m. Within Stationary, exports grew
34% to INR2,314m. EBITDA margin in Publication stood at 38% and in
Stationary at 13%. EBITDA grew 18.6% in Publication and 47% in Stationary.
Management expects strong growth, margin expansion:
With syllabus
change in Maharashtra/Gujarat, growth should be strong in Publication in
FY18 and FY19. On account of strong order book and visibility, Stationary is
expected to deliver 20%+ growth, mainly driven by exports. Exports are
expected to remain strong through the year and not just during the ‘back to
school’ period. Since margin in exports (16%) is higher than that in domestic
business (12%), overall margins are expected to expand. NELI also plans to
hike prices by 5-5.5% to counter cost inflation.
Valuation and view:
In Publication, we believe NELI is well placed to capture
growth triggers like changing syllabus, common curriculum across India, and
conversion of SEB schools to CBSE. We like export-led growth in Stationery
and NELI’s future-ready eSense platform. We expect 18% revenue CAGR and
21% PAT CAGR over FY17-19E. Maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR226 (20x FY19E
EPS).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1535
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1554