E
CO
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Demonetization: When will the cash crunch end?
It will take at least six months to re-print INR15t
5 December 2016
The Economy Observer
According
to
media reports,
INR12.6t – over four-fifth of the specified bank notes (SBNs) – has been deposited with
banks in the first 25 days of the demonetization scheme. With four weeks still left, it is highly likely that the majority of
the SBNs will come back into the banking system.
Although SBNs lost their transactional ability from November 8, 2016 (with some exceptions), the return of SBNs into
banks imply that the
government
has a mammoth task to infuse sufficient (new) currency notes in appropriate
denominations so that the adverse impact on economic activity is not prolonged.
Assuming
that
all the four printing presses in the country are operating every second, our calculations suggest that it
will take at least six months for the government to reissue INR15t. In case the printing presses run on two shifts (as is
usually the case), it will take more than nine months.
With no major wealth destruction and the government introducing a new income disclosure scheme (IDS-II), the
financial benefits of demonetization to the government are unclear. However, with cash crunch likely to remain at least
for six months, the adverse impact of lower velocity will be witnessed at least until June 2017.
What does recent data suggest?
As per Reserve Bank of India (RBI), INR8.5t (~58% of the SBNs) was deposited with
the banking system between November 10 and November 27, 2016.
Media reports
suggest that in the following week (November 28 - December 3, 2016) another
INR4t was deposited, implying that over four-fifth of the outstanding SBNs have
been deposited in the first 25 days of demonetization.
With four weeks remaining
for the scheme to end, it is
very likely that the majority
of SBNs will come back into
the system.
With four weeks remaining for the scheme to end, it is very likely that the majority
of SBNs will come back into the system. It means that the
government’s assumption
of INR4t-5t not being deposited into the banking system is proven wrong.
What is the printing capacity of the country?
There are four printing presses in India that print currency notes. The two presses at
Mysore in Karnataka and Salboni in West Bengal are owned by Bharatiya Reserve
Bank Note Mudran Private Limited (BRBNMPL), a wholly owned subsidiary of
Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The remaining two presses at Dewas in Madhya Pradesh
(Bank Note Press) and Nashik in Maharashtra (Currency Note Press) are owned by
Security Printing and Minting Corporation of India (SPMCIL), a wholly owned
company of the Government of India.
In total, the four printing
presses in the country can
print 27b notes on a two-
shift basis (as is usually the
case) and 40b notes on a
three-shift basis.
The present capacity of both the presses of BRBNMPL is 16b pieces per year on a
two-shift basis (implying 24b pieces on a three-shift basis). These two presses
account for 60% of the total capacity in the country, implying that the two presses
of SPMCIL have a printing capacity of ~11b pieces on a two-shift basis (and 16b on a
three-shift basis). In total, the four printing presses in the country can print 27b
notes on a two-shift basis (as is usually the case) and 40b notes on a three-shift
basis.
Nikhil Gupta
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
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To calculate the estimated
time to print currency notes
worth INR15t, it is crucial to
understand the division of
the entire new stock in
different denominations
(100/500/2,000)
How much needs to be reprinted?
Notably, it takes exactly the same amount of time to print a INR2,000 note as it
takes to print a INR10 note. To calculate the estimated time to print currency notes
worth INR15t, it is crucial to understand the division of the entire new stock in
different denominations (100/500/2,000). To calculate the pieces required of each
denomination, we assume that 5% of the outstanding currency does not come back
into circulation and ~20% (or INR3t) of the currency is converted to bank deposits.
Accordingly, the new outstanding stock at the end of March 2017 would be INR15t.
Exhibit 1
gives our estimates on how the INR15t could be divided. We believe that
the share of INR100 notes will increase along with INR2,000 notes. However, the
share of INR500 notes will fall. Since the new outstanding amount of currency in
circulation at the end of March 2017 will be INR15t, we believe that the total
number of notes required in circulation will fall from 90.3b at the end of FY16 to
76.5b (because of new notes of INR2,000 denomination) as at the end of FY17. Our
assumptions and calculations suggest that almost 20b notes will need to be printed
after the demonetization scheme.
Volume (bn)
Value (INR bn)
Others
49.8
52.5
42.0
Total
83.6
90.3
76.5
100
1,503
1,578
2,100
500
6,564
7,854
5,000
1,000/2,000
5,612
6,326
7,000
Others
804
877
930
Total
14,483
16,635
15,030
Source: RBI, MoSL
Our assumptions and
calculations suggest that
almost 20b notes will need
to be printed after the
demonetization scheme.
Exhibit 1: Assumptions on new notes to be printed
100
FY15
FY16
FY17E
15.0
15.8
21.0
500
13.1
15.7
10.0
1,000/2,000
5.6
6.3
3.5
Assuming 5% of the currency does not come back into circulation and ~INR3Tn is converted into bank deposits
Exhibit 2
shows the likely share of INR100/500/2,000 notes in total currency in
circulation in FY17 (and how it was in FY16), as per our calculations. We believe that
the share of INR100 (in value terms) will increase from 9% in FY16 to 14%, while the
share of INR500 will fall from 47% to 33%. Also, in FY17, the share of INR2,000 notes
will be 47%; in FY16, the share of the INR1,000 notes was 38%.
Exhibit 2: Share of different notes in outstanding currency
FY16
Others, 5
INR100, 9
INR100, 14
INR500, 33
FY17E
Others, 6
INR1,000,
38
INR500, 47
INR1,000, 0
Source: RBI, CEIC, MoSL
Source: RBI, CEIC, MoSL
5 December 2016
2

the government will have to
replace 22b notes of old
INR500/1,000 with 13.5b
new notes of INR500/2,000.
How much time would it take to print?
Overall, as per our calculations and assumptions, the government will have to
replace 22b notes of old INR500/1,000 with 13.5b new notes of INR500/2,000.
Additionally, the RBI will have to print – as per our estimates – about 5b notes of
INR100, also. Overall, we believe almost 20b notes need to be printed.
It is important to note that the four printing presses can print a maximum of 3.3b
notes in a month on a three-shift basis, implying a maximum amount of INR6.6t (if
only INR2,000 notes are printed). It means that the government has a capacity to
print a maximum of INR220b a day on a three-shift basis (INR146b a day on a two-
shift basis).
Depending on whether the
presses work in two or
three shifts, it will take at
least six months for the
government to print 20b
notes in the country
Depending on whether the presses work in two or three shifts, it will take at least six
months for the government to print 20b notes in the country (Exhibit
3).
If the
presses operate on a two-shift basis, it will take nine months to print INR15t;
however, if all the four presses print every second of the day for the next few
months, it will take six months to print 20b new notes. Assuming that the printing of
notes began 40 days before the announcement of demonetization scheme, INR15t
will not be back into circulation before the end of March 2017.
Exhibit 3: It will take at least six months to print INR15t
In billion
New notes to be printed*
Annual capacity
Monthly capacity
Months needed to print INR15t
26.7
2.2
9.0
Printing in two shifts
19.9
40.0
3.3
6.0
Source: MOSL
Printing in three shifts
5 December 2016
3

What does it imply for the economy?
There are various ways in which demonetization will impact the economic activity.
Cash crunch to hurt economic activity:
The fact that 86% of the total currency in
circulation will have to be surrendered to the banking system with restricted
withdrawal implies severe cash crunch into the economy to carry out daily
transactions. This will have a direct adverse impact on the transactional ability of
Indian customers, leading to fall in demand.
with more than four-fifth of
SBNs already deposited
with banks, as per
media
reports,
the government is
unlikely to receive any
significant financial gains
out of demonetization.
Government unlikely to benefit from wealth destruction…:
Secondly, it was
expected that about INR4-5t of the outstanding stock of currency in circulation will
not come back into the system, leading to wealth destruction. It was assumed that
since a large part of such wealth was lying under the mattresses (with zero velocity),
the transfer of this wealth to the government will lead to higher demand boosting
GDP growth. However, with more than four-fifth of SBNs already deposited with
banks, as per
media reports,
the government is unlikely to receive any significant
financial gains out of demonetization.
…but hopes to gather more taxes under new IDS:
The massive inflows into banks
made the government
propose
an alternative scheme named ‘Taxation and
Investment Regime for Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan yojana, 2016 (PMGKY)’,
providing a window to black money holders to disclose undisclosed income and pay
a total tax of approximately 50%. Further, the declarant shall have to deposit 25% of
undisclosed income in a Deposit Scheme to be notified by the RBI under the
‘Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Deposit Scheme, 2016’. For those who continue to
hold onto undisclosed income and are caught will have to pay a levy of 75% tax. The
current provisions of penalty on under-reporting of income at 50% of the tax, and
200% of tax for misreporting will remain and no changes are being made to them.
Full blown impact from 4QFY17:
With (a) old notes entirely out of circulation by the
end of December 2016, (b) limited availability of new currency notes, and (c)
logistics issues, we believe that the full impact of lower velocity will be witnessed in
4QFY17 and 1QFY18 rather than in 3QFY17. It is important to note that the impact
may not be as adverse as expected in 3QFY17 because a significant portion of
purchases could be advanced in November 2016, offsetting the negative impact to
an extent.
While only one month in
3QFY17 will get hurt (partly
offset by advance purchases
in November), 4QFY17
would be the first full
quarter to witness the full
impact of demonetization.
However, we believe the cash crunch will hurt the ability of various parties to
conduct several transactions. With the economy still managing with about half the
total currency in circulation (at best) at the end of December 2016, we believe the
full adverse impact of demonetization and cash crunch will hurt economic activity
from December onwards. It implies that while only one month in 3QFY17 will get
hurt (partly offset by advance purchases in November), 4QFY17 would be the first
full quarter to witness the full impact of demonetization.
5 December 2016
4

Various changes adopted by the government post demonetization
November 10:
Old INR500 & INR1,000 notes will be accepted for making payments
towards fees, charges, taxes and penalties payable to the Central and State
Governments including Municipal and Local Bodies. Such old notes will also be
accepted for making payment of utility charges for water & electricity etc. However,
these facilities will be available only till midnight of 11th November 2016.
November 11:
Government extends existing exemptions until the expiry of 14th
November, 2016, with certain modifications / additions to the existing exemptions
November 13:
Banks to increase the Cash Withdrawal limit at ATMs from INR2,000
to INR2,500 per day in the recalibrated ATMs.
Banks advised to increase the exchange limit over the counter from the existing
INR4,000 to INR4,500.
The weekly limit of INR20,000 for withdrawal from Bank accounts was increased to
INR24,000. The limit of INR10,000 per day was removed.
November 14:
The existing exemptions were being extended
14
th
November, 2016 midnight up to 24
th
November, 2016 mid night.
beyond
November 15:
Indelible ink used during elections shall be used for over the counter
exchange against old INR500 and INR1,000 notes. This is not applicable in the case
of withdrawal from or deposit into accounts.
November 17: Special Provisions for particular sections of the soceity
Farmers were permitted to draw upto INR25,000 per week in cash from their KYC
compliant accounts only. These cash withdrawals would be subject to the normal
loan limits and conditions. This facility will also apply to the Kisan Credit Cards (KCC).
Farmers receiving payments into their bank accounts through cheque or other
electronic means for selling their produce, will be permitted to withdraw up to
INR25,000 per week in cash. But these accounts will have to be KYC compliant.
Traders registered with APMC markets/mandis were permitted to draw up to INR
50,000 per week in cash from their KYC compliant accounts as in the case of
business entities. This will enable these traders to pay wages and facilitate easy
loading, unloading and other activities at the mandis.
Permit families (requiring PAN details/self-declaration) celebrating weddings to
draw up to INR250,000 in cash from their own bank accounts. These accounts have
to be necessarily KYC compliant.
Central Government employees up to Group RsC’ including equivalent levels in the
Defence and Para Military Forces, Railways and Central Public Sector Enterprises will
be given an option to draw salary advance up to INR10,000 in cash
5 December 2016
5

To reduce the limit of exchange of old INR500 and INR1,000 notes across the
counter in banks from INR4,500 to INR2,000
November 17:
In addition to the existing requirement of quoting of PAN in respect
of cash deposits in excess of INR50,000 in a day, quoting of PAN was also made
mandatory in respect of cash deposits aggregating to INR250,000 or more during
the period 9
th
November 2016 to 30
th
December 2016.
November 21:
to allow farmers to purchase seeds with the old high denomination
bank notes of INR500 from the Centres, Units or Outlets belonging to the Central or
State Governments, Public Sector Undertakings, National or State Seeds
Corporations, Central or State Agricultural Universities and the Indian Council of
Agricultural Research (ICAR), on production of proof of identity.
November 23:
As a relief to small borrowers (i.e., loans upto INR10m), RBI has
already decided to provide additional 60 days’ time for repayment of dues.
To promote greater usage of payments through e-wallets, RBI has decided to
increase the monthly transaction limit for individuals from INR10,000 to INR20,000.
Similar enhancements have also been announced by RBI for merchants.
November 24:
No over the counter exchange of old INR500 and INR1,000 notes
after midnight of 24.11.2016.
The existing exemptions, with additions and modifications, were being extended
beyond 24
th
November 2016 midnight up to 15
th
December 2016 mid night.
November 28:
Taxation Laws (Second Amendment) Bill, 2016 introduced in Lok
Sabha; A scheme namely, ‘Taxation and Investment Regime for Pradhan Mantri
Garib Kalyan Yojana, 2016’ (PMGKY) proposed in the Bill
December 2:
Old INR500 bank notes will not be accepted at petrol, diesel and gas
outlets of Public Sector Oil and Gas Marketing Companies as well as for purchase of
Air Tickets at Airports; However, supply of LPG continues to be in the exempted
category for the purpose of payment through old INR500 bank notes.
December 5:
Any Payment above INR5,000 to Suppliers, contractors,
grantee/loanee institutions etc. by government Departments to be now made
through e-Payment to attain the goal of complete digitization of Government
payments
5 December 2016
6

NOTES
5 December 2016
7

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