1 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Media
PVR Ltd
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,003
S&P CNX
8,637
CMP: INR1,123 TP: INR1,330 (+18%)
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Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
PVRL IN
46.7
52.5 / 0.8
1176 / 646
7/33/34
135
74.7
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
18.7
22.5
Net Sales
3.3
4.3
EBITDA
1.2
1.5
NP
25.5
33.1
EPS (INR)
664.3
29.7
EPS Gr. (%)
186.2 216.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
18.7
16.4
RoE (%)
14.5
13.1
RoCE (%)
37.8
29.2
Payout (%)
5.2
4.5
Div. Yield
2018E
26.7
5.2
2.1
45.2
36.5
259.1
19.0
15.2
21.4
3.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Results in line with estimates; Growth guidance intact
Revenue and EBITDA margins in line with estimates:
PVR reported overall
revenues of INR5.7b for 1QFY17 (est. of INR5.4b), marking 17% YoY
growth. PVR added 29 DT Cinemas screens during the quarter, taking the total
count to 551 screens in 1QFY17. It aims to surpass 600 screens by the end of
this year. EBITDA margins declined from 22.8% in 1QFY16 to 20.5% in 1QFY17
(est. of 20.7%), primarily driven by lower LTL growth of 6% as some
blockbusters movies were released during the base quarter. Consequently, adj.
PAT came in at INR444m (est. of INR445m), down from INR458m in 1QFY16.
Advertisement revenue growth to bounce back:
Advertisement revenue
growth slowed to 13% YoY in 1QFY17 (v/s +19% YoY in 4QFY16, and +29% YoY
in 3QFY16). This was mainly on account of an increase in the share of regional
(Sairat) and Hollywood-dubbed (Jungle Book) movies during the quarter. The
share of Bollywood movies was down to 37% v/s 52% in 1QFY16. However, PVR
maintained its guidance of 15-17% growth for the full year, as 2Q and 3Q are
seen as bigger quarters in terms of Bollywood movie releases. With full
integration of DT Cinemas over the next 4-6 months, growth can be as high as
18-20%.
Guidance intact for full year, DT integration to aid margin expansion:
PVR
expects to take total screens beyond 600 (including 32 DT cinemas) in FY17 and
clock revenue CAGR of 20% over the next two years. Being located at premium
locations, DT Cinemas enjoys higher ATP and F&B SPH v/s PVR. Going ahead,
F&B margins can improve significantly with PVR’s scale and expertise coming
into picture.
Valuation and view:
We expect 19% revenue CAGR and 25% EBTDA CAGR over
FY16-18. We expect overall EBITDA margins to improve from 17.7% in FY16 to
19.5% in FY18, mainly driven by synergies from its integration with DT Cinemas,
while GST implementation can expand EBITDA margins by 440bp (assuming
18% GST rate). We continue to maintain our estimates and value PVR at 13x
FY18E EV/EBITDA. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR1,330.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1535
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1554