MindTree Consulting
BSE SENSEX
27,747
S&P CNX
8,509
18 July 2016
Q1FY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR614
TP: INR600(-2%)
Neutral
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Significant margin miss mars outlook
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
MTCL IN
167.8
122.7 / 1.8
804 / 601
-7/-28/-1
340
86.3
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
46.9
56.1
65.7
Net Sales
8.3
8.7
11.2
EBITDA
6.0
5.5
7.1
PAT
35.9
32.5
42.5
EPS (INR)
12.4
-9.4
30.9
Gr. (%)
142.4 161.2 189.3
BV/Sh (INR)
27.4
21.4
24.3
RoE (%)
30.6
24.9
30.0
RoCE (%)
17.1
18.9
14.4
P/E (x)
4.3
3.8
3.2
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Softness in revenue growth…:
MTCL’s 1QFY17 CC growth of 1.1% QoQ was
below our estimate of 2% on account of delays in project commencement and
decline in revenue from Bluefin (led by uncertainty in the UK). Deal wins
remained strong with TCV of USD220m. Yet, delayed ramp-up and client-
specific issues are expected to keep revival at bay for another quarter.
…And severe miss on profitability…:
Margins declined by 200bp QoQ to 14.7%
(v/s our estimate of flat margins) despite a 200bp QoQ improvement in
utilization. Incremental pressure over and above the visa expenses came from
continued onsite shift (+190bp QoQ) and revenue and profitability decline in
Bluefin more than offset any efficiency improvement.
…All
but rule out FY17 margin expansion:
MTCL expressed confidence in
growing FY17 revenues at a rate higher than industry. Despite the ~4.5% of
incremental revenue contribution in FY17 by acquisitions, the ask rate for the
2H works out to ~3.2% for ~15% revenue growth, after 2Q, which is expected
to be another soft quarter. MTCL also has held on to its aspiration of expanding
margins in FY17. However, following 200bp decline in 1Q, and impending
200bp headwind from wage hike in 2Q, likelihood of reaching 17.5% full year
margin appear all but over, with 1HFY17E margins at 14.7%.
Valuation view:
We have cut our revenue estimate by 1% for FY17/18E each.
However, we have toned down our EBITDA margin estimates for FY17 / FY18 to
15.5% / 17%, down 230bp / 150bp. While MTCL is our preferred business
model in tier-II IT from a long term perspective for its strong Digital play, our
expectation of upward bias to margins is thwarted by continued onsite ramp
and another year of profitability decline nearly a given. Our target price of
INR600 now discounts FY18E earnings by 14x (v/s 15x earlier). Restoration of
higher multiple will be a function of addressing the duality of growth-margin
softness. Maintain Neutral.
*IND-AS. Rest of the quarters are in I-GAAP. Impact of IND-AS on revenue is to the extent of -0.4% on revenue, -30bp on EBITDA margin and
-1.3% on PAT margin
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.