4 April 2016
Metals Weekly
Valuations: Indian companies
Company
Steel
Price EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x)
(INR) FY16E FY17E FY15
318
1263
64
44
87
39
90
288
185
98
16.8
13.5
16.5
-18.3
8.5
6.1
7.9
5.9
6.5
7.4
9.2
6.7
14.0
-40.4
7.2
6.4
8.6
5.3
7.6
13.1
1.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.5
4.5
1.8
1.2
Metal Prices
CMP
1-Apr
% 25-Mar
change since
%
1-Jan
%
1-Apr
Ta ta Steel
JSW Steel
JSPL
SAIL
Non-Ferrous
Hi nda l co
Na l co
Veda nta
Mining
Coa l Indi a
HZL
NMDC
TMT- Mumba i (INR/ton)
HRC- Mumba i (INR/ton)
HRC (USD/ton) fob CIS
27,600
30,667
368
0 27,600
0 30,667
0
368
0 13,350
-5 20,250
-3
56
2
80
4
226
4
1
-1
4
3
0
-1
-3
-4
1,470
100
2,815
1,777
119
437
4,931
330
149
-1 28,000
17 26,222
45
253
-6 14,200
14 17,000
25
44
7
76
31
179
1
-1
-4
15
20
-7
4
3
-39
1,508
102
2,896
1,600
102
466
4,702
310
236
-13 31,900
-7 32,889
-6
390
-24 17,600
-4 20,000
3
53
-15
97
-5
248
-14
-9
-29
-11
-6
-15
-19
-16
-57
1,766
111
3,938
2,069
129
511
6,020
378
334
Sponge i ron - Ra i pur (INR/ton)
13,300
Pi g i ron - Ra i pur (INR/ton)
19,300
Iron ore s pot (USD/ton) cfr Chi na
55
Coki ng coa l (USD/ton) fob Aus .
82
Shred. s cra p (USD/ton) Rotterda m
235
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indi a n pri ces (INR ‘000/ton)
LME i nventori es (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indi a n pri ces (INR ‘000/ton)
LME i nventori es (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indi a n pri ces (INR ‘000/ton)
LME i nventori es (‘000 ton)
Gol d (INR/10gms )
Sl i ver (INR/1kg)
Lea d Spot LME (USD/ton)
Brent crude (USD/bbl )
INR/USD
BDI
1,524
101
2,783
1,842
122
435
4,880
319
143
29,080
36,651
1,720
38.7
Note: Detailed table on pg 25
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global companies
Price
Mining
AUD 16.97
BHP
AUD 2.56
FMG
Ri o Ti nto
AUD 43.14
USD 11.87
Va l e
USD 7.78
Teck Res .
Steel
EUR 4.15
A. Mi tta l
KRW 213.5
Pos co
USD 16.55
US Steel
USD 47.52
Nucor
JPY 1432.5
JFE
BRL 7
Gerda u
CNY 5.32
Ba o Steel
Non Ferrous
USD 9.63
Al coa
NOK 33.6
Hydro
HKD 2.61
Rus a l
Note: Detailed on pg 25
EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x)
CY15 CY16 CY15
8.6
5.3
7.7
5.9
8.3
6.8
3.0
23.9
9.4
8.0
2.6
7.7
8.9
6.5
9.7
7.7
6.1
7.0
4.4
7.1
5.7
2.9
8.6
7.6
7.0
2.3
6.6
7.6
5.9
9.1
1.2
0.8
1.6
NM
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.1
2.0
NM
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.9
3.4
0 29,080
0 36,651
-2 1,755
-4
40.4
16 25,042
11 33,006
-5 1,802
-4
40.4
11 26,169
-1 36,916
-5 1,808
-41
65.7
66.2
-1
66.8
0
66.2
6
62.3
450
11
406
-6
478
-24
596
Source: Meta l Bul l eti n, Bl oomberg, Steel Mi nt, MOSL
Source: Bloomberg
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
104
103
102
101
100
99
BSE Metal
Sensex
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Indexed to 100 on 28 March 2016
Stock performance table on pg 26
Investors are advised to refer through
important disclosures made at the last
page of the Research Report
.
Long product (TMT Mumbai) prices were flat WoW. Sponge iron prices
were marginally lower while domestic scrap prices were unchanged.
Domestic HRC steel prices were unchanged, despite higher global steel
prices. NMDC raised iron ore fines/lump prices by INR150/t.
Iron ore (China cfr) was down 3% WoW. Thermal coal prices were up 3%
WoW. Coking coal prices were up 2% WoW.
EU HRC prices rose ~7% WoW, having increased by ~20% over the last
month. CIS export HRC prices were unchanged, after rising by ~18% last
week and ~USD85/t over the past few weeks. Chinese local steel prices
continue to move higher – HRC up ~3% WoW and rebar prices up ~6%
WoW. Chinese export HRC prices were ~7% WoW while rebar prices were
up 3% WoW. Rotterdam scrap prices were up 4% WoW.
Aluminum (cash LME) was up 4% WoW, closing above USD1,500/t. Spot
premiums were higher while alumina continues to rise.
Copper (cash LME) was down 1% WoW. Zinc was up 4% WoW. Lead
declined by 2% WoW.
Brent crude prices declined 4% WoW, closing below ~USD40/bbl.
MOIL has increased manganese ore prices by 10-50%.
NMDC & MOIL raise iron & Mn ore prices; Global steel & scrap prices
continue to inch up
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412 /
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com)

Metals Weekly
Contents
Page No.
Ferrous
India
European Union
China
Other regions
Steel raw material
Ferro alloys
3-10
3,4 & 5
6
7
8&9
10 & 11
12
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Crude Oil
Commodity curve analysis
China non-ferrous trade data
13-20
13
15
16
17
18
19
20
Key indicators
Industrial production growth across the globe
BSE announcements
Metals valuation matrix
Metals stock performance
21-22
23
24
25
26
4 April 2016
2

Metals Weekly
Ferrous
Domestic HRC prices were
flat WoW at INR30,667/t.
Average HRC prices over
the previous quarter are
up by ~INR2,350/t.
Ferrous
INDIA
Indian flat domestic steel prices (INR/T, excl. ED & VAT)
36,000
33,000
30,000
27,000
24,000
Spot
Quaterly average
Avg. i s up
INR2346 QoQ
Long products (TMT
Mumbai) prices were
unchanged WoW at
INR27,600/t.
Indian long steel price (INR/T, exl. ED & VAT)
34,000
31,500
29,000
26,500
24,000
Spot
Quaterly average
Avg. i s up
INR331 QoQ
Sponge iron (made from lumps) prices (INR/T, excl. ED & VAT)
Sponge iron prices were
flat at ~INR13,300/t.
21,000
19,000
17,000
15,000
13,000
11,000
Coal based Sponge (Raipur)
India: Integrated steel mills spreads (Import parity HRC – 1xcoking coal)
Indian integrated steel mills spreads (INR/t)
35,000
Indian integrated steel
producers (IISP) spreads
were higher on import
parity steel price basis.
31,000
27,000
23,000
19,000
15,000
Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOSL
4 April 2016
3

Metals Weekly
Ferrous
Ferrous
INDIA
Scrap Mandi (INR/t)
Domestic scrap prices
were flat WoW at
~INR19,700/t.
26,000
23,500
21,000
18,500
16,000
Scrap (Mandi)
Iron ore lumps (INR/t)
NMDC raised prices of iron
ore lumps by INR150/t to
INR2,100/t on improved
sentiments in domestic
steel market and global
iron ore price increase.
NMDC 6-40mm (CG)
7,700
5,700
3,700
1,700
Lumps 5-18 (Odisha)
Iron ore fines (INR/t) ex mine
NMDC raised prices of iron
ore fines by INR150/t to
INR1,860/t on improved
sentiments in domestic
steel market and global
iron ore price increase.
Rungta Fines 63% (Odisha, incl. royalty)
3,400
2,700
2,000
1,300
NMDC Fines, ex-royalty
Pellet (Barbil) INR/t
Pellet (Barbil)
Pellet prices were at
INR3,100/t.
4,800
4,300
3,800
3,300
2,800
Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOSL
4 April 2016
4

Metals Weekly
India Monthly steel trends
Steel consumption (mt) and growth (trailing 12-month) YoY %
India steel demand in
February grew by 7.9% YoY
to 7.1mt. The 12-m moving
avg. steel demand growth
stands at 4.2% YoY.
Cons. (mt)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Trailing 12m Growth (%)
4.2
2.6
1.6
Steel imports and exports - kt
Steel product imports in
February were down 7%
YoY to 911kt. Exports
declined 25% YoY to 299kt.
Imports
Exports
Scrap imports - kt
Imports of ferrous scrap in
February increased 31%
YoY to 524kt.
Scrap imports - kt
677
470 443 484
448 464 397 406
368 404
517 522 481 506
352
420 465
534
510 524
Crude steel production - kt
Crude steel production
grew 3.6% YoY to 7.5mt.
Amongst the major steel
producers, Essar Steel’s
crude steel production YTD
February is up by 16% to
3.2mt. In Feb alone
production was double
YoY.
Crude steel production - mt
Source: JPC
4 April 2016
5

Metals Weekly
European Union
European HRC prices (EUR/ton)
North Europe HRC
South Europe HRC
470
430
390
350
310
270
EU HRC prices were up 7%
WoW to EUR349/t. Over
the last month prices are
up by ~20% (or EUR60/t).
Rotterdam: shredded scrap prices (USD/t)
Rotterdam scrap prices
were up 4.2% WoW to
USD235/t.
395
355
315
275
235
195
155
European wire rods southern region (Euro/t)
500
460
South Europe wire rod
prices were flat WoW.
420
380
340
300
Spreads ( HRC-1.6xiron ore-0.7xcoking coal) – (USD/t)
EU
370
China
EU steel mills spreads rose
higher steel prices.
315
260
205
150
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, WSA, MOSL
4 April 2016
6

Metals Weekly
China
China domestic prices (USD/ton)
Chinese local HRC steel
prices were up 2.6% WoW
to USD393/t. Rebar prices
were up 5.5% WoW
USD376/t.
HRC
630
530
430
330
230
Rebar
Steel spreads (Steel price – 1.6x iron ore – 0.55x coke) for Chinese producers
Chinese steel product
spreads were higher WoW
on higher steel prices.
315
270
225
180
135
90
HRC
Rebar
Steel trade (m ton)
Chinese steel exports grew
6.8% YoY to 7.7mt in
February 2016.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Exports
Imports
Steel inventories in main China cities (m tons)
9
8
Steel inventories in China
were down WoW.
7
6
5
4
3
4 April 2016
7

Metals Weekly
Other regions
CIS HRC export prices (USD/ton) fob basis
CIS Exports (HRC)
CIS HRC export prices
were flat WoW at
USD368/t, after rising
~18% the previous week
and up by ~USD85/t over
the past few weeks.
370
330
290
250
Turkish export billets (USD/ton)
Turkish Exp Billets
440
390
340
290
North America HRC prices (USD/ton)
520
470
420
370
320
US HRC prices were
up.
CIS: Monthly crude steel production
CIS countries crude steel
production grew 3.1% YoY
to 8.1mt in February 2016,
benefiting partly due to
the extra leap-year day in
the month.
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
CIS
YoY (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Source: Metal Bulletin, WSA, Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
8

Metals Weekly
Other regions
North America: Monthly crude steel production
North America
YoY (%)
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
US steel production grew
1.8% YoY to 8.8mt in
February 2016.
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
Global: Monthly crude steel production
Global crude steel
production fell 4.1% YoY to
120mt in February 2016.
145
140
135
130
125
120
Global
YoY (%)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Global: Monthly crude steel capacity utilization
82
Capacity Utilization
Capacity utilization fell 7.2
percentage points to 66%
YoY in February 2016.
78
74
70
66
62
Source: Bloomberg, WSA, MOSL
4 April 2016
9

Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Import price of 62% grade iron-ore fines in China (USD/ton)
CIF
FOB
Iron ore (China cfr) prices
were down 2% WoW to
USD56/t.
70
60
50
40
30
OTC iron-ore swaps (USD/ton)
2016
3Q16
2Q16
55
50
45
40
35
30
China iron-ore production and imports (m tons)
China iron ore imports in
February rose 8.3% YoY to
73.6mt.
155
130
105
80
55
30
Ore Imports
Ore Prod
Pig iron prod (RHS)
76
68
60
52
44
China iron-ore inventories (mt)
110
100
China iron ore inventories
rose WoW.
90
80
70
60
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
10

Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Freight rates to China (USD/ton)
Brazil
Australia
India
Freight rates were flat
WoW.
32
24
16
8
0
Coal price index
Richards Bay thermal coal
prices were up 3% WoW to
USD54.75/t.
Ri chards Bay Steam Coal
88
78
68
58
48
Coke price index (fob China)
China coke export spot (LHS)
255
230
205
180
155
130
Coking coal (USD/t)
Spot coking coal (fob Australia)
130.0
Coking coal prices were up
2% WoW ~USD81/t.
110.0
90.0
70.0
4 April 2016
11

Metals Weekly
Ferro alloys
China’s imports of manganese ore and concentrate
Imports
2,000
1,700
1,400
1,100
800
500
Prices (RHS)
280
240
200
160
120
80
Chrome ore FOB spot prices
40% Chrome Africa
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
Ferro chrome CIF prices (CNY/t)
12,000
10,500
9,000
7,500
6,000
4,500
Fe Chrome 50% Cr China
Fe Chrome 63% Cr Pittursburgh
Silico Manganese prices
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Silico Manganese in warehouses in Pittsburg USA
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
12

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
LME inventories and spot prices
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
4.3
3.7
3.1
2.5
Aluminum (cash LME) rose
4% WoW to USD1,524/t.
Global primary aluminum monthly production and YoY growth
Global aluminum
production grew by 2.8%
YoY to 4.45mt in January
2016, better than 1.2%
growth recorded in
December 2015.
Production
5,400
4,800
4,200
3,600
3,000
YoY
23.0
18.0
13.0
8.0
3.0
-2.0
Aluminum: SHFE Vs LME arbitrage (USD/T)
LME and SHFE arbitrage
was balanced.
290
190
90
-10
-110
-210
India: Company-wise primary aluminum monthly production
Hindalco
Balco
Nalco
VED - JSG
4 April 2016
13

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
All-in-aluminum was at
USD1,693/t.
3,200
2,400
1,600
800
0
Aluminum raw material and power cost for marginal producer in USA (USD/t)
CPC
Alumina
Power
LME+Spot
CPC US (USD/t)
600
500
400
300
200
Alumina (USD/t)
440
Alumina was at
~USD247/t.
390
340
290
240
190
Spreads: Aluminum Cans (UBC) – LME all-in-aluminum (USD/t) – 12-m moving average
750
625
500
375
250
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, Industry, MOSL
4 April 2016
14

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Copper
LME inventories and prices
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Copper (cash LME) prices
fell 1.0% WoW to
USD4,880/t.
6,050
5,450
4,850
4,250
Global refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
2.2
Production
YoY - RHS
16.0
11.0
6.0
1.0
-4.0
Global copper production
grew 7.3% YoY to 1.98mt
in January 2016.
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
China: Refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
Production
YoY - RHS
36
25
14
3
-8
Copper: Spot TCRC (USc/lb)
35.0
32.0
29.0
26.0
23.0
20.0
4 April 2016
15

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Zinc
Zinc (cash LME) rose 4%
WoW to USD1,842/t.
LME inventories and prices
Inventories (RHS)
2,350
2,050
1,750
1,450
Spot
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Global refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Production
YoY growth (RHS)
14.0
8.0
2.0
-4.0
-10.0
Global zinc production in
January 2016 declined
1.4% YoY to 1.139mt. This
is the fourth consecutive
month of decline now.
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
China: Refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Production
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
-2
-22
YoY growth (RHS)
40
19
Zinc: Global metal surplus (deficit) – kt (January 2016)
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
4 April 2016
16

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Lead
Lead (cash LME) was down
2% WoW to USD1,720/t.
LME inventories and prices
Inventories (RHS)
2,150
1,950
1,750
1,550
Spot
0.25
0.23
0.20
0.18
0.15
0.13
0.10
Global refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
1.0
Production
YoY - RHS
22
12
2
-8
-18
Refined lead production in
January 2016 rose 1.5%
YoY to 848kt.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
China: Refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
0.5
0.4
0
0.3
0.2
-20
Production
YoY - RHS
20
India: Company-wise refined lead monthly production
HZL
:
12 11 11
14
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 11 9
9
9
12
13 13 13 14 13 14
9
9
11
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
17

Metals Weekly
Crude Oil
Brent crude oil price (USD/bbl)
Brent (crude oil) was down
4.4% WoW to
USD38.3/bbl.
Brent Crude
125.0
105.0
85.0
65.0
45.0
25.0
Global crude oil quarterly supply (mbpd)
Non-OPEC supply
OPEC Supply
97.0 97.0
90.8 90.7 90.6 91.2 90.3 91.2 91.6 91.8 92.2 93.0 94.1 95.2 95.1 96.4
37.4 37.9 37.7 37.0 36.6 37.1 36.8 36.0 36.3 36.4 36.9 36.9 37.7 38.9 39.1 39.1
53.4 52.8 52.9 54.2 53.7 54.1 54.8 55.8 55.9 56.6 57.2 58.3 57.4 57.5 57.9 57.9
Global crude oil surplus/(deficit) - mbpd
surplus/(deficit)
2.5
1.2
0.8
0.5
(0.5) (0.4)
1.2
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.6
2.2
(0.6)
(1.0)
(0.9) (1.1)
Crude oil futures (USD/bbl)
60
50
40
30
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
:
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
18

Metals Weekly
Commodity forward curves
LME aluminum (USD/ton)
1,850
1,700
1,550
1,400
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
LME copper (USD/ton)
5,100
4,950
4,800
4,650
4,500
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
LME zinc futures (USD/ton)
1,900
1,850
1,800
1,750
1,700
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
Base metals US spot premium (USD/ton)
565
490
415
340
265
190
115
40
Aluminium
Zinc
Copper
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
19

Metals Weekly
China non-ferrous trade data
China’s aluminum trade ('000 tons)
Aluminum exports in
February was down 34%
YoY to 280kt.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Imports
Exports
China’s refined copper trade ('000 tons)
500
400
300
200
100
0
Imports
Exports
China’s refined zinc trade ('000 tons)
100
Export
Import
China refined zinc imports
were almost double YoY to
59kt in January 2016.
75
50
25
0
China’s alumina imports ('000 tons)
800
Chinese alumina imports in
January stood at 510kt
compared to 544kt in
December.
600
400
200
0
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
20

Metals Weekly
Key indicators
China new loan growth (Yuan b)
2,400
2,100
1,800
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
China: PMI
54
52
50
48
46
Mfg PMI
Steel PMI
59
53
47
41
35
China: Fixed asset investment growth (%)
Fixed asset investment
growth was at 10.2% YoY
in February.
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
Currency movement with respect to the rupee
71
67
63
59
55
51
USD (LHS)
GBP
EURO
110
101
92
83
74
65
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
21

Metals Weekly
Key indicators (Contd...)
China Energy Production Electricity (b kwh)
550
480
410
340
270
200
Electricity
YoY (%, RHS)
47
32
17
2
-13
-28
China electricity
production grew 9.3% YoY
in December, as against
growth of 4.8% YoY in
November.
China Monthly Trade YoY (%)
50
30
10
-10
-30
Import
Export
China Price Index YoY (%)
PPI
5
2
-1
-4
-7
CPI
China GDP YoY (%)
7.9
China’s GDP growth was
6.8% in 4QCY15.
7.6
7.3
7.0
6.7
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
22

Metals Weekly
Industrial production growth
The UK and the USA (%)
6
3
0
-3
-6
UK
USA
Japan (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
European Union (%)
8
2
-4
-10
France
Germany
Italy
BRIC (%)
Russia
13
6
-1
-8
-15
Brazil
India
China
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
4 April 2016
23

Metals Weekly
Stock exchange announcements
Tata Steel:
Fitch has downgraded Tata Steel’s long-term foreign currency issuer
default rating by 1 notch amid sharp fall in international steel prices.
JSW Steel:
Crude steel production in 4QFY16 grew 5% YoY to 3.2mt amid capacity
expansion. Flat steel production was down 4% YoY to 2.38mt while long products
production was up 61% YoY to 0.77mt.
JSPL:
India steel sales in 4QFY16 grew 30% YoY to 1mt. Production was up 10% YoY
to 0.97mt. For the full year FY16, sales grew 15% YoY to 3.3mt while production grew
10% YoY to 3.5mt.
4 April 2016
24

Metals Weekly
Metals
Valuation Matrix
Valuations: Indian Companies
Rating
Steel
Ta ta Steel
JSW Steel
JSPL
SAIL
Non-Ferrous
Hi nda l co
Na l co
Veda nta
Mining
Coa l Indi a
Hi ndus ta n Zi nc
NMDC
CMP=current ma rket pri ce
Sel l
Buy
Netura l
Sel l
Buy
Buy
Neutra l
Buy
Buy
Sel l
Price
(INR)
318
1,263
64
44
87
39
90
288
185
98
MCAP
(USD M)
4,618
4,568
869
2,695
2,678
1,506
4,002
27,201
11,687
5,808
FY15
2.9
74.5
6.9
5.2
13.5
4.8
20.5
21.7
19.4
16.6
EPS
FY16E
-4.8
-9.4
-21.4
-11.1
-1.6
2.3
6.3
22.9
17.8
8.0
FY17E
-8.5
116.7
-25.3
-15.4
7.5
2.3
1.8
25.4
13.5
5.5
P/E (x)
FY16E FY17E
-66.6
-134.7
-3.0
-3.9
-55.6
17.3
14.2
12.6
10.4
12.3
-37.6
10.8
-2.5
-2.8
11.5
17.0
50.3
11.3
13.7
17.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16E FY17E
16.8
13.5
16.5
-18.3
8.5
6.1
7.9
5.9
6.5
7.4
9.2
6.7
14.0
-40.4
7.2
6.4
8.6
5.3
7.6
13.1
P/B(x)
FY15 FY16E
1.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.5
1.7
1.5
0.3
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.5
4.5
4.3
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.2
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global Companies
Company
Mining
BHP-Bi l l i ton
FMG
Ri o Ti nto
Va l e
Teck Res ources
STEEL
Arcel or Mi tta l
Pos co
US Steel
Nucor
JFE
Gerda u
Ba o Steel
NON FERROUS
Al coa
Nors k Hydro
Rus a l
BBG
CODE
BHP AU
FMG AU
RIO AU
Va l e US
TCK US
MT NA
005490 KS
X US
NUE US
5411 JT
GGBR4 BZ
600019 CH
AA US
NHY NO
486 HK
Currency
AUD
AUD
AUD
USD
USD
EUR
k KRW
USD
USD
JPY
BRL
CNY
USD
NOK
HKD
PRICE
17
3
43
12
8
4
214
17
48
1,433
7
5
10
34
3
MCAP
(US$ M)
63,922
6,168
51,936
20,813
4,478
14,489
16,540
2,423
15,103
8,098
3,074
13,539
12,662
8,367
5,113
PE (x)
CUR YR
NXT YR
110.8
16.3
26.3
NM
NM
NM
18.4
NM
25.4
NM
NM
21.9
29.6
19.6
NM
35.8
47.4
20.1
NM
37.0
40.1
12.6
NM
17.5
NM
NM
16.6
17.6
16.3
NM
EV/EBITDA(x)
CUR YR
NXT YR
8.6
5.3
7.7
5.9
8.3
6.8
3.0
23.9
9.4
8.0
2.6
7.7
8.9
6.5
9.7
7.7
6.1
7.0
4.4
7.1
5.7
2.9
8.6
7.6
7.0
2.3
6.6
P/BV (x)
CY15E
1.2
0.8
1.6
NM
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.1
2.0
NM
1.1
0.8
7.6
1.0
5.9
0.9
9.1
3.4
Source: Bl oomberg
4 April 2016
25

Metals Weekly
Metals Stock
Performance
Among large-cap companies, Tata
Steel was the best relative
performer while JSW Steel was the
weakest performer over
one month.
Metals stock performance on absolute and relative basis (%)
Months
Steel
Ta ta Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Non-Ferrous
Veda nta
Hi ndus ta n Zi nc
Na l co
Hi nda l co
Mid Caps
Monnet Is pa t
Goda wa ri
Sa rda Energy
Ta ta Sponge
Adhuni k Meta l i ks
Bhus ha n Steel
Ja i Ba l a ji
Ra i n Indus tri es
Pra ka s h Indus tri es
SENSEX
1
23.7
21.1
10.4
13.5
18.8
20.3
13.4
19.1
23.4
12.0
20.2
15.5
24.2
5.6
9.5
16.7
-3.0
18.7
6.3
Absolute Perf (%)
3
6
22.4
-9.6
22.3
-33.9
8.9
-0.1
26.2
-2.5
2.2
-36.5
-12.5
-13.0
-5.3
-24.3
-17.3
-4.1
-17.6
-11.0
-3.2
49.9
-15.3
42.2
4.8
5.0
6.0
32.2
11.1
22.6
-39.7
-16.0
-4.7
4.7
-24.0
-15.7
-14.9
-17.2
13.7
-3.4
12
-1.9
-38.2
38.5
-59.2
-24.0
-52.6
12.9
-17.4
-34.4
-56.5
-39.8
-28.1
-44.3
-46.9
-43.3
-40.3
9.1
-13.0
-10.6
Relative Perf to Sensex (%)
1
3
6
12
17.4
14.8
4.2
7.2
12.5
14.0
7.1
12.8
17.2
5.7
13.9
9.3
18.0
-0.7
3.2
10.4
-9.2
12.4
-
25.7
-6.4
25.6
-30.7
12.1
3.1
29.5
0.7
5.5
-33.2
-9.2
-9.8
-2.1
-21.1
-14.1
-0.9
-14.4
-7.8
-
53.3
-11.9
45.6
8.2
8.4
9.4
35.6
14.5
26.0
-36.3
-12.6
-1.3
8.1
-20.6
-12.3
-11.6
-13.8
17.1
-
8.6
-27.7
49.0
-48.6
-13.4
-42.0
23.5
-6.8
-23.8
-45.9
-29.2
-17.6
-33.7
-36.3
-32.7
-29.7
19.7
-2.4
-
Among mid-cap companies,
Tata sponge outperformed
and Rain Industries has
underperformed over one month.
Global Metals stock performance on absolute basis (%)
1week
1month
0.2
5.9
35.0
18.0
9.6
23.0
80.1
16.0
38.1
3.7
7.6
5.6
5.6
18.8
8.0
113.0
5.7
-5.8
-5.2
Absolute Perf (%)
3 months
6 months
-1.8
-5.0
31.3
36.9
79.8
23.8
107.4
17.9
37.3
-4.7
28.2
-25.4
-14.2
4.2
5.1
60.8
-2.4
10.1
-0.4
-12.1
-23.6
2.9
40.7
-2.3
-19.9
58.8
26.6
14.9
-4.8
26.7
-8.3
-4.5
21.7
-3.0
40.9
-0.3
-16.1
6.2
7 months
-29.4
-39.9
-25.0
40.7
-46.0
-28.9
-32.9
0.6
-38.2
-24.9
-9.5
-46.2
-29.7
-22.9
-13.3
-40.1
-26.7
-46.4
-38.6
12 months
-29.4
-39.9
-25.0
40.7
-46.0
-28.9
-32.9
0.6
-38.2
-24.9
-9.5
-46.2
-29.7
-22.9
-13.3
-40.1
-26.7
-46.4
-38.6
Among global mining companies,
Anglo American was the best
relative performer over one week.
Among global steel majors,
Gerdau was the best
relative performer.
Among the global aluminum,
Chalco was the best
relative performer
Mining
Ri o Ti nto
BHP Bi l l i ton
Va l e
FMG
Angl o Ameri ca n
Veda nta
Steel
US Steel
Nucor
Arcel or Mi tta l
Ba o Steel
Pos co
JFE Hol di ngs
Ni ppon
Thys s en Krupp
Voes t Al pi ne
Gerda u
Aluminium
Al coa
Rus a l
Cha l co
0.3
-0.2
6.9
-0.4
7.5
6.0
4.9
2.2
13.4
1.7
1.9
-7.5
-5.0
13.1
7.4
21.4
0.6
-2.2
1.6
4 April 2016
26

METALS GALLERY
METALS WEEKLY
SECTOR UPDATES
SECTOR UPDATES

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