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The Economy Observer
16 November 2015
USD20b-30b Pay Commission not to dent fisc
Fillip to select discretionary / savings products and cement
Pay Commission
Seventh Pay Commission impact would be
0.9-1.3% of GDP, inclusive of center and
states – that is, USD20b-30b
Bill lower than preceding Commission, as
(i) no arrears, (ii) proposed flatter pay, (iii)
lower inflation, and (iv) lesser political
compulsion
Fiscal boost limited to 20% of PFCE this
time – nearly half of last time. See benefit
for Autos and White Goods (selectively);
neutral for FMCG
Big boost for savings-related products like
housing, cement and bank deposits
Fiscal health unaffected, as salaries and
pension payments comprise only 12-15%
of the center’s revenue expenditure
We estimate the impact of the Seventh Pay Commission to be around
0.9% of GDP (1.3% including pension) in FY17 and FY18 for the center
and the states together. This translates to around USD20b (only
salaries) each of the two years and USD30b (including pension).
Reasons for lower outgo this time: (i) proposed flatter salary structure,
(ii) nearly no arrear payment, (iii) lower structural and cyclical inflation,
and (iv) lesser political compulsions.
The overall fiscal booster is limited to 20% of incremental domestic
private consumption during FY17 and FY18 in contrast with 57% and
22% during FY09 and FY10, respectively as certain components viz.,
higher subsidy, debt waiver, NREGA upscaling, etc. are absent.
In the past, Pay Commissions have boosted durables consumption
(including Autos, Tyres, and White Goods) but were neutral to FMCG.
Higher allocation is likely for savings products including housing and
time deposits (for future contingencies and ceremonies). Allocation to equity market is usually low, but rises sharply
when the capital market performs well.
Pay Commission is unlikely to dent fiscal health, which is more of a function of the government’s fiscal stance. Pay
Commission awards comprise only 12-15% of the central government’s total revenue expenditure. The impact was well-
absorbed during the Fourth and Fifth Commissions, when deficit went lower. However, during the Sixth Commission,
fiscal norms were relaxed to effect a post crisis stimulus, which included debt waiver and NREGA upscaling.
I. Estimate Pay Commission impact at a modest USD30b for FY17 and FY18
Seventh Pay Commission to cost center and states ~USD30b:
We have
calculated the overall financial impact of the implementation of the Seventh Pay
Commission at around 0.9% of GDP (for salary only) and 1.3% of GDP (including
pension) during the two years FY17 and FY18. This would amount to an
expenditure of ~INR2t (USD30b) each year. This is lower than the 1-1.6% of GDP
(around USD20b each year) impact during the Sixth Pay Commission.
FY09
FY10
229
232
FY17
374
177
FY18
374
212
Exhibit 1: The extent of fiscal stimulus is expected to be much less than previous Pay
Commission due to post crisis fiscal response (increase over previous year in INR b)
I. Centre
Total emoluments
Pension
II. States
Salaries and wages
Pension
III. Total Pay Commission (Salary)
(USD b)
IV. Total Pay Commission (Salary + Pension)
(USD b)
V. (III as % of GDP)
VI. (IV as % of GDP)
278
87
289
94
566
(12)
747
(16)
1.0
1.3
418
1044
1253
178
309
356
646
1,418
1,627
(14)
(21)
(24)
1,056
1,904
2,195
(22)
(29)
(33)
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.6
1.2
1.3
Source: Government, RBI, MOSL
Dipankar Mitra
(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.