3 November 2015
3QCY15 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
BSE SENSEX
26,591
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val,(INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,061
ABB IN
211.9
1525/1021
19/-7/15
109/85
25.0
ABB
CMP: INR1,263
TP: INR1,380 (+9%)
Neutral
In-line performance; orders surge on finalization of projects, growth in base orders
Performance in line with estimates:
ABB’s 3QCY15 performance was in line with
estimates. Revenue was up 7% YoY to INR19.4b and EBIDTA margin 40bp YoY to
6.5%. Sales were driven by strong performance in the product businesses, with
Power Products at INR6.62b (+23% YoY) and Low Voltage at INR2.11b (+22% YoY).
The company has maintained its policy of “cash over revenues”, which led to a
fall in the projects segment, with Power Systems at INR4.3b (-12%) and Process
Automation at INR2.8b (-11% YoY). The overall business environment remains
strained and timing of project delivery also impacted revenue recognition.
Order inflow up 61% YoY on finalization of project orders and strong base
orders:
Order intake surged 61% YoY to INR22.9b, driven by finalization of project
orders and a healthy growth in base orders. We note that 3QCY15 is coming off a
weak base of last year when order inflows during 3QCY14 stood at just INR14.2b.
Key sectors driving orders are transportation, renewables (primarily solar) and
transmission. The solar business segment now contributes ~5% to the order book
and remains an important growth driver. Export orders picked up after a weak
1HCY15. Order backlog stood at INR83b, up 8% YoY. The traditional areas of steel,
cement, refining and power continue to remain lackluster and till the time there
is capacity underutilization, capacity expansion in any of these sectors is unlikely.
Valuation and view:
Management remains cautiously optimistic on the demand
scenario and is focused on improving margin via operational efficiencies and
localization efforts. While segments such as transmission, renewables and
transportation are seeing traction, the traditional sectors of steel, cement and
O&G remain elusive. Valuations stand at 83x/55x its CY15E/16E EPS of
INR15.2/22.8. Maintain
Neutral
with a DCF-based price target of INR1, 380.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 267.6/4.1
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E DEC
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj EPS (INR)
EPS Gr (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
2014 2015E 2016E
76.3
5.0
2.3
12.8
34.9
9.7
9.2
98.4
9.5
80.5
5.9
3.3
15.2
18.1
10.7
12.2
83.3
8.9
87.6
8.4
4.8
22.8
50.7
14.7
15.6
55.3
8.1
132.7 142.1 155.8
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.vsharrma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5449
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.Rs