21 October 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Technology
BSE SENSEX
27,288
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,252
MPHL IN
210.1
96.6/1.5
475/331
9/18/11
59
39.5
CMP: INR460
TP: INR520 (+13%)
Mphasis
Neutral
Margins above estimate, deal bookings sanguine
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)*
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
57.9
8.7
6.8
32.3
-8.6
12.8
13.1
49.6
14.3
61.5
9.2
7.5
35.7
10.6
13.3
13.3
52.5
12.9
67.5
11.0
8.6
41.0
14.9
14.3
15.5
48.8
11.2
EV/EBITDA(x) 8.6
7.3
5.7
Annualized values for 5M FY14E
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Delivering in the focus areas:
MPHL’s revenue was up 1.1% QoQ to USD237m—
line with our estimate adjusted for domestic BPO business. Direct International
segment grew 5.2% QoQ (CC), driving overall revenue momentum. LTM deal TCV
of USD320m in the segment lends visibility of above-industry average growth in
two-thirds of the business.
Margins above estimate:
EBIT margin increased 120bp QoQ to 13.9% (above our
estimate of 13.3%) despite the inclusion of two months’ revenue from the lower-
margin domestic BPO business. MPHL expects 13-15% EBIT margin in 2H, up from
12-14% outlook for 1H, despite a 170bp impact of wage hikes effective in 3Q. PAT
excluding exceptional item was INR1.9b v/s our estimate of INR1.88b.
Deal signings improve:
MPHL signed deals of TCV USD90m in 2Q—the highest in
last four quarters, wherein the TCV remained in the USD65m-80m range. About
70% of the deals were in its focus areas of Digital | GRC | Next-Gen IMS.
Sanguine margin guidance on multiple levers:
Despite a negative 170bp impact
of wage hikes in 3Q, management’s margin guidance exudes confidence due to:
[1] Improving quality of revenues and reduction of domestic BPO; [2] increasing
growth from deal wins in target areas; [3] improving operational efficiencies.
Valuation and view:
We expect revenue CAGR of 3.4% and EPS CAGR of 12.7%
over FY15-17. While valuations at 11.8x/10.4x FY16E/17E P/E are at a steep
discount to peers (particularly after factoring in the cash balance), the overall
revenue growth improvement is imperative to bridge the same. We raise our
target price to INR520 following impressive execution in Direct international
business and deals-led visibility. Our TP discounts FY17E operating PAT by 11x,
added to net cash on book of INR120/share (compared with INR101 at present).
Neutral.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.