Sobha Developers
BSE Sensex
26,933
S&P CNX
8,153
6 October 2015
Update | Sector: Real Estate
CMP: INR281
TP: INR400 (+42%)
Buy
Operational normalcy yet to return
Bangalore momentum down; QoQ uptick in Kerala, Chennai
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
SOBHA IN
98.1
536 / 244
-5/-26/-30
27.5
0.4
87
39.4
SOBHA’s 2QFY16 presales were down 2% QoQ to INR4.9b (0.85msf). 1HFY16
cumulative presales stood at ~42% of annual guidance (19% in 1Q).
Bangalore volumes were down 13% QoQ, led by slower momentum in Dream
Acres; Chennai and Kerala markets posted an uptick.
The stock appears attractive post corrections, which factors in operational
weakness. Re-rating hinges on operational normalcy, which might take another
six months to play out. Maintain Buy with a target price of INR400.
Operational disappointment continues
SOBHA’s 2QFY16 presales stood at 0.85msf (INR4.9b) v/s 0.84msf (INR5.0b) in
1QFY16 and expectation of INR0.9msf (INR5.5b).
Sobha Retreat(0.02msf)
at
Langford Road (Bangalore), a presidential apartment property with 7 units, was
the only new launch (@INR25,000 psf).
Dream Acres
continued to remain the
key contributor; however, it run-rate appears to plateauing (ASP INR4,875/sf).
Average realization, consequently, was down ~3% QoQ to INR5,821/sf.
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
24.4
6.2
2.4
24.3
1.3
11.6
1.1
7.5
2.5
24.2
6.8
2.7
27.1
11.7
10.3
1.0
7.2
2.5
27.2
7.7
3.1
31.5
16.0
8.9
1.0
6.1
2.5
248.0 266.9 290.2
Bangalore momentum down; Kerala and Chennai post an uptick
Bangalore mix declined to 71% in 2Q (v/s ~83% QoQ and 75% in FY15), largely
due to decline in presales run-rate of key project
Dream Acres.
However, luxury
projects in Bangalore posted sequential improvement (~7% QoQ). Chennai and
Kerala projects recorded an uptick—led by projects such as
Lake Edge
(Thrissur)
and
Sobha Evergreen
(Chennai) and better NRI demand in 2Q. Gurgaon launch
is likely by 4QFY16 while uncertainty over Thrissur and Chennai launches
persists.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Jun-15 Mar-15 Jun-14
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
60.6
3.6
31.8
4.0
60.6
4.1
31.7
3.6
60.6
3.6
32.2
3.6
Valuation favorable post corrections
Only 42% of the 4msf (INR26b) guidance has been achieved till 1HFY16.
Therefore, we expect another year of operational disappointment unless the
company’s Gurgaon launch springs a strong positive surprise. We estimate FY16
presales of 3.4msf (INR21.7b). The recent corrections have made the stock
attractive, with operational negativity largely factored in. However, re-rating
hinges on operational normalcy—which might take another six months to play
out. Sobha trades at 8.9x FY17E EPS, 1x FY17E BV and EV of ~7x FY17E cash
EBITDA. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR400 (25% discount to SoTP
valuation of INR520)
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Anchit Agarwal
(Anchit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 223010 2397
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Sobha Developers
Exhibit 1: One project was launched in 2Q (msf)
3.57
2.55
1.80
1.14
0.15
0.00
1.10
0.56
1.10
0.44
0.00
1.58
0.67
0.33
Exhibit 2: Presales volume (msf) continues disappointment
1.08
0.94
0.860.84
1.00
0.90
0.92
0.74
0.92
0.83
0.75
0.66
0.02
0.84
0.85
1.03
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: Presales velocity fell 2% QoQ
Sales value (INR b)
Realization ('000 INR/sf)
6.5 6.3
6.3
5.9
5.6
6.76
6.03 6.34
6.8
6.6 6.4
6.7
6.5
Sales mix of luxury segment
in Bangalore rises
5.4
5.7
6.1
6.27
6.0
5.8
5.25 5.32
4.64 4.82
5.02
6.05
4.82
5.59
4.27
5.04 4.95
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 4: Bangalore momentum breaks
Bangalore
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
79 80 83 71
66 62 62 66 64 66 67 68 68 70 67
NCR
Chennai
Kerala
Others
Exhibit 5: We factor in for ~INR22b presales in FY16
Presales(INR b)
5,891
5,152
3,887
3,000
6.2
FY10
10.8
FY11
17.0
FY12
22.2
FY13
23.4
FY14
20.9
FY15
21.7
26.4
Realization (INR/sf)
6,879
6,540 6,389 6,364
FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
6 October 2015
2

Sobha Developers
Exhibit 6: FY15 cash flow to mimic operational weakness
FY12 FY13 FY14
INR b
Collections
18.3 21.2 26.9
RE
11.8 16.1 19.5
Contract
3.2
4.1
7.4
Land sales
3.3
1.0
0.0
Rental income
0.0
0.0
Construction outflow
10.8 12.4 16.9
RE
7.4
8.9 10.8
Contract
3.4
3.5
6.1
Approvals
0.9
1.3
1.3
Corpus
Overheads
1.0
1.4
1.4
Marketing
0.3
0.3
0.7
Capex and others
0.1
0.9
1.0
Gross Cash flow
5.1
5.0
5.6
Tax Paid
0.5
0.9
1.0
OCF
4.6
4.1
4.6
Core OCF
1.3
3.1
4.6
Land payment
0.8
1.9
1.8
Interest
2.2
2.1
2.0
FCFE
0.7
-0.5
0.9
Dividend
0.6
0.6
0.8
Net CF
0.2
-1.0
0.1
FCF
2.9
1.6
2.8
Core cash EBITDA
1.8
4.0
5.6
We expect a recovery
through shift in product mix
to boost operating cash
flow over FY16-17 after a
YoY flat FY15
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
25.8 26.9 32.0 38.3
18.4 20.0 24.6 29.4
7.4
6.9
7.2
7.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
19.2 19.5 20.9 23.2
13.0 13.6 14.7 16.7
6.2
5.8
6.1
6.4
1.5
3.2
3.2
4.0
1.2
0.5
1.3
2.1
0.8
1.2
1.2
3.8
2.4
-5.0
0.8
-5.8
-2.6
2.2
1.1
3.1
1.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.8
-2.7
0.8
-3.5
0.1
3.2
1.7
6.3
1.3
5.0
5.0
0.0
3.1
2.1
0.8
1.3
5.2
6.2
3.2
7.9
1.6
6.3
5.3
0.0
3.2
3.3
0.8
2.5
6.5
6.7
Exhibit 7: We value Sobha’s NAV at INR520/share and our target price is INR400
NAV Calculation FY17
Real Estate
Ongoing projects
FY14/FY15 launches
(INR m)
63,038
11,467
21,591
NAV/Share
643
117
220
Method of valuation
At NAV
At NAV
~218msf of balance land bank with
average FSI cost of INR110/sf. Valued
Bangalore land at lowest range of
MTM value (INR300/sf) and rest at
cost of acquisition
At 6x FY15E EV/EBITDA
GAV based on NPV of development
potential
Land bank
Contractual Business
Gross Asset Value (GAV)
Less: Net debt
Net Asset Value (NAV)
Implied EV at TP
Cash EBITDA FY17E
Implied multiple at target price (x)
29,979
6,502
69,540
18,516
51,024
57,730
6.2
9
306
66
709
189
520
400
~25% discount to NAV
6 October 2015
3

Sobha Developers
Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Construction expenses
Office and site establish. exps
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deffered Tax Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Other Current Assets
Current Liab. & Prov.
Creditors
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2010
11,299
16.0
2011
13,945
23.4
2012
14,079
1.0
2013
18,645
32.4
9,558
1,969
5,483
29.4
594
1,705
55
3,239
1,068
33.0
2,172
2,172
5.5
2014
21,734
16.6
8,840
2,684
6,025
27.7
690
1,734
103
3,704
1,368
36.9
2,350
2,350
8.2
2015
24,406
12.3
12,100
2,594
6,174
25.3
723
1,883
149
3,717
1,277
34.4
2,381
2,381
1.3
2016E
24,164
-1.0
12,224
2,658
6,811
28.2
714
2,128
150
4,119
1,400
34.0
2,660
2,660
11.7
(INR Million)
2017E
2018E
27,203
31,283
12.6
15.0
13,302
3,101
7,711
28.3
781
2,365
200
4,764
1,620
34.0
3,086
3,086
16.0
15,156
3,441
8,825
28.2
781
2,413
200
5,831
1,982
34.0
3,789
3,789
22.8
1,530
2,637
23.3
323
693
39
1,658
275
16.6
1,341
1,341
24.5
1,532
3,600
25.8
278
860
51
2,514
669
26.6
1,813
1,813
35.1
1,694
4,665
33.1
388
1,165
65
3,177
1,076
33.9
2,060
2,060
13.6
2010
981
16,057
17,038
14,740
-52
31,727
2,942
1,513
1,429
632
27
36,459
11,101
4,430
826
20,102
2011
981
17,527
18,508
12,416
-74
31,174
3,164
1,791
1,373
647
37
36,816
10,685
4,310
230
21,592
2012
981
19,017
19,998
12,031
330
32,714
5,018
2,179
2,840
13
0
39,519
16,759
3,904
587
18,268
2013
981
20,386
21,367
13,536
638
35,643
5,895
2,773
3,122
13
2
45,295
19,018
6,935
670
18,672
2014
981
21,933
22,914
13,786
1,010
37,798
6,915
3,463
3,453
207
0
51,338
24,273
6,454
1,055
19,556
2015E
981
23,337
24,318
20,147
1,631
46,244
7,182
4,186
2,996
600
0
58,687
27,284
7,206
1,631
22,566
2016E
981
25,194
26,174
24,647
1,631
52,659
7,932
4,900
3,032
560
0
65,617
31,172
7,733
3,032
23,681
(INR Million)
2017E
2018E
981
981
27,476
27,476
28,457
28,457
25,147
25,647
1,631
1,631
55,501
56,001
8,682
4,900
3,782
1,495
0
70,999
33,188
8,161
5,168
24,483
8,682
5,641
3,041
3,925
0
72,848
33,786
8,759
3,712
26,591
10,695
5,984
4,166
545
25,764
27,852
7,699
6,757
4,715
942
29,118
31,174
9,658
8,272
5,712
1,386
29,861
32,714
12,955
11,518
5,818
1,437
32,340
35,643
17,298
15,832
9,032
1,466
34,040
37,798
16,118
14,620
7,120
1,498
42,569
46,244
16,630
14,982
7,008
1,648
48,988
52,659
20,855
19,042
8,161
1,813
50,144
55,501
23,892
21,898
9,385
1,994
48,956
56,001
6 October 2015
4

Sobha Developers
Financials and valuation
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before Extraordinary Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Less : Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
(Inc)/Dec in Networth
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Less : Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
2010
13.7
-7.5
17.0
173.7
2.5
18.3
2011
18.5
35.1
21.3
188.7
3.0
16.2
2012
21.0
13.6
25.0
203.9
5.0
23.8
2013
22.2
5.5
28.2
217.9
7.0
31.6
2014
24.0
8.2
31.0
233.7
7.0
29.2
2015
24.3
1.3
31.7
248.0
7.0
28.8
2016E
27.1
11.7
34.4
266.9
7.0
25.8
2017E
31.5
16.0
39.4
290.2
7.0
22.2
2018E
38.6
22.8
46.6
290.2
7.0
18.1
11.7
9.0
6.7
1.8
1.2
2.5
11.5
8.8
7.4
1.9
1.1
2.5
10.3
8.1
7.2
2.0
1.0
2.5
8.9
7.1
6.1
1.7
1.0
2.5
7.2
6.0
5.6
1.6
1.0
2.5
9.6
7.5
10.2
10.7
10.7
13.6
10.5
14.5
10.6
14.8
10.1
13.3
10.5
12.6
11.3
13.2
13.3
14.8
65
70
65
70
65
70
65
70
65
70
65
70
65
70
65
70
65
70
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
2010
1,658
323
693
275
-1,179
1,221
-137
1,084
0
-137
5,089
-4,581
693
287
-473
611
214
826
2011
2,514
278
860
669
217
3,200
-236
2,963
-10
-246
-21
-2,324
860
344
-3,549
-596
826
230
2012
3,177
388
1,165
1,076
-387
3,267
-1,221
2,046
37
-1,184
407
-385
1,165
574
-1,717
356
230
586
2013
3,239
594
1,705
1,068
-2,396
2,074
-877
1,198
-2
-878
308
1,505
1,705
803
-695
83
587
669
2014
3,704
690
1,734
1,368
-1,315
3,445
-1,215
2,230
2
-1,213
372
250
1,734
803
-1,915
385
670
1,054
2015
3,717
723
1,883
1,277
-7,953
-2,907
-659
-3,566
0
0
447
6,361
1,883
803
4,122
576
1,055
1,630
2016E
4,119
714
2,128
1,400
-5,018
542
-710
-168
0
-710
0
4,500
2,128
803
1,569
1,401
1,631
3,032
(INR Million)
2017E
2018E
4,764
5,831
781
781
2,365
2,413
1,620
1,982
979
-268
7,270
6,775
-2,466
4,804
0
-2,466
0
500
2,365
803
-2,668
2,136
3,032
5,168
-2,470
4,305
0
-2,470
-2,986
500
2,413
803
-5,702
-1,456
5,168
3,712
6 October 2015
5

REPORT GALLERY
Sobha Developers
OTHER COMPANIES
SECTOR UPDATES

Sobha Developers
NOTES
6 October 2015
7

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Sobha Developers
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