18 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
Torrent Pharma
BSE SENSEX
27,324
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
Avg Val(INR M)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,262
TRP IN
169.2
1335 / 570
5/32/94
104/110
28.8
CMP: INR1,256
TP: INR1,410 (+12%)
Buy
4Q miss on cost overrun; Expect strong EPS acceleration
High-impact US launches and strong traction in India/Brazil boost outlook:
4Q PAT at
INR1.3b (down 47% YoY) was 14% below estimates, mainly on weaker margins (14%
v/s 20.7% est.). Revenues were in line at INR11.3b (down 6% YoY) on a high base of
last year (gCymbalta sales). EBITDA dipped 54% YoY to INR1.6b (34% miss) due to cost
overruns, even as gross margins were in line. Higher other income of INR1b included
fx gains partly cushioning the PAT disappointment. We expect strong qtrs ahead on
the back of price hikes in India/Brazil & high-value US launches.
Revenue mix stronger than expectations:
India biz grew 55% YoY (inc. Elder) while
base business growth surprised positively at 23% YoY (v/s 13% for industry) on strong
chronic segment performance. US sales declined 44% YoY, constrained by fewer new
launches YoY and low sales numbers of gCymbalta in the base year (up 46% YoY adj.
for the same). Currency movement hurt EU (down 13% YoY) and RoW sales (down 4%
YoY) while Latam reported healthy growth (up 33% in constant currency; 10% in INR
terms). Impact of high-margin US launches like gAbilify, gNexium, gDetrol and recent
price hikes in domestic/RoW are expected to result in strong revenue traction over
FY15-17E (19% CAGR).
4Q margins disappoint; expect ramp-up ahead:
EBITDA margins at 14% (down 14.5bp
YoY) fell below estimate on unfavorable operating leverage, higher staff cost (one-off
of INR 350m) and other expenses in 4Q. We expect EBITDA margins to expand by
400bp over FY15-17E, led by (a) high-impact US launches, (b) higher synergies from
Elder brand acquisition (to be EPS accretive by FY16-end v/s FY17 est. earlier),
(c) ramp-up in Latam markets on new launches and (d) improved MR productivity in
India. Hence, EBITDA is likely to outpace revenue growth at 30% CAGR over FY15-17E.
Superior earnings growth to drive valuation upside:
Despite 4Q miss, we remain
positive on TRP’s re-rating potential due to (a) strong EPS momentum of 26% CAGR
over FY15-17E, (b) improving return ratios (ROE—31%; ROCE—27%), (c) potential
ramp-up in US biz (low base)—led by increased pace of filings and M&A. Retain
Buy
rating with a target price of INR 1,410 (22x FY17E EPS, in line with the sector).
FY14
41,840
30.3
9,514
22.7
870
586
381
8,439
0
8,439
1,801
21.3
6,638
5,024
6.8
12.0
FY15
46,530
11.2
10,200
21.9
1,910
1,750
2,860
9,400
0
9,400
1,890
20.1
7,510
6,761
34.6
14.5
(INR Million)
Est.
Var.
4QE vs Est
11,756
-1.8%
-4.0
2,436 -33.5%
20.7
560
560
600
1,916
0
1,916 -19.1%
402
21.0
1,514 -14.1%
1,514 -14.1%
39.9
12.9
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 212.7/3.4
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
46.5
10.2
6.8
40.0
25.6
30.8
27.7
31.5
8.5
56.7
14.4
8.5
50.1
25.4
30.4
24.8
25.1
6.9
66.0
17.1
10.7
63.2
26.2
31.1
27.5
19.9
5.6
BV/Sh. (INR) 147.2 182.4 223.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
FY14
FY15
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Net Revenues
9,720
9,720 10,150 12,250 11,140 12,170 11,680 11,540
YoY Cha nge (%)
26.7
26.9
27.3
40.6
14.6
25.2
15.1
-5.8
EBITDA
2,080
1,790
2,150
3,500
3,450
2,730 2,400 1,620
Ma rgi ns (%)
21.4
18.4
21.2
28.6
31.0
22.4
20.5
14.0
Depreci a ti on
210
220
210
230
210
560
540
600
Interes t
80
150
160
200
240
540
500
470
Other Income
80
100
100
100
490
720
650 1,000
PBT before EO Expe 1,870
1,520
1,880
3,170
3,490
2,350 2,010 1,550
Extra -Ord Expens e
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PBT after EO Expen 1,870
1,520
1,880
3,170
3,490
2,350 2,010 1,550
Ta x
380
390
300
730
930
370
340
250
Ra te (%)
20.3
25.7
16.0
23.0
26.6
15.7
16.9
16.1
Reported PAT
1,490
1,130
1,580
2,440
2,560
1,980 1,670 1,300
Adj PAT
1,490
1,130
1,324
1,082
1,811
1,980 1,670 1,300
YoY Cha nge (%)
46.3
17.4
17.9
-9.1
21.5
75.2
26.1
20.2
Ma rgi ns (%)
15.3
11.6
13.0
8.8
16.3
16.3
14.3
11.3
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes ; Cons ol i da ti on of El der Pha rma bra nds from 2QFY15
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Arvind Bothra
(Arvind.Bothra@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(Amey.Chalke@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.