6 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
V-Guard Industries
BSE SENSEX
27,440
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR M)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout %
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
Dividend
EV/Sales (x)
41.7
7.8
22.6
0.5
1.7
27.8
6.4
17.2
0.7
1.5
20.4
5.2
13.4
1.1
1.2
2015 2016E 2017E
17.5
1.3
0.7
23.6
0.4
20.3
28.0
22.1
20.1
1.7
1.1
35.4
50.1
153.3
25.4
34.9
22.9
23.7
2.1
1.4
48.3
36.4
189.5
28.2
39.0
25.2
S&P CNX
8,325
VGRD IN
29.9
29.4/0.5
1,197/403
8/9/66
47/57
33.9
CMP: INR985
TP: INR950 (-4%)
Neutral
Results below estimates led by de-growth in cables and pumps
V-Guard Industries (VGRD) reported revenue of INR4.4b (est. INR5.1b) in 4QFY15 as
against INR4.2b in 4QFY14 marking a YoY growth of 4.5%. Electronics segment grew
13% YoY from INR1,161m in 4QFY14 to INR1.3b in 4QFY15. Electrical segment saw flat
growth YoY with revenues at INR2.9b. South market de-grew 2% YoY to INR2.9b while
Non-south market grew ~19% YoY in 4QFY15 to INR1.5b. LT cables and pumps growth
posted negative growth of -4% and -14% respectively, while on the positive side Water
Heaters posted (led by pan-India Pebble launch) strong growth of 29.4% YoY, Fans
segment posted 42% growth YoY and Stabilizers posted robust growth of 19.5%.
Higher employee and other expenses drove 40bp EBITDA margins decline:
Gross
margins improved 130bp YoY to 25.8% led by better product mix and despite
inventory losses due to lower copper prices. EBITDA was flat YoY at INR353m in
4QFY15 (est.INR464m). EBITDA margins declined 40bps to 8.0% in 4QFY15 (est 9%) led
by higher employee and other expenses. (Higher 140bp and 60bp YoY respectively).
Employee and other expenses were higher as the company appointed franchisee
based after sales service while at the same time maintaining the 500 employees who
were involved earlier in the in-house service division. Going forward, management
plans to redeploy these employees in other roles, thus driving employee costs to
revenues back to lower levels of 5%. Consequently, PAT declined 2% to INR201m (est.
INR273) in 4QFY15.
Valuation and view:
Management has guided for 15% revenue growth for FY16 along
with EBITDA margin guidance in the 8-8.5% range. We cut our EPS forecast for FY15 /
FY16 / FY17 by 14%, 8% and 13% respectively to factor lower growth in South markets
and lower margins. We value VGRD at 20x FY17E EPS, higher than its historic five-year
average multiple of 17.2x and at a 15% discount to Havell’s multiple of 24x FY17E, and
value the stock at INR950. Maintain
Neutral
given downside of 4%.
BV/Sh (INR) 126.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
14%
14%
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.