20 March 2015
Update | Sector: Technology
KPIT Technologies
BSE Sensex
28,261
S&P CNX
8,571
CMP: INR190
TP: INR200 (+5%)
Neutral
Soft segments to pull back FY16 growth, margins
Cut FY16/FY17 EPS estimates 9%/5%
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
AvgVal(INRm)/Vol‘000
Free float (%)
n
KPIT IN
198.6
37.7/0.6
233/140
-8/14/-13
222/1,182
25.0
n
n
n
n
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
2015E 2016E 2017E
Y/E March
Sales
30.1 34.0 38.5
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div yld (%)
14.5
2.9
8.4
0.8
12.9
2.3
6.5
1.1
10.1
1.9
4.7
1.3
3.9
2.6
13.1
4.6
66.1
20.2
23.1
11.4
4.7
2.9
14.7
11.9
80.8
20.0
25.6
13.6
5.8
3.8
18.8
28.1
99.6
20.9
27.1
Project specific issues will drive weakness in 4QFY15 revenues, compounded by
higher cross currency impact – as growth will come be dominated by non-US
regions.
EBITDA margin will be impacted by revenue deferrals, expected to decline 100-
150bp QoQ.
Outlook for FY16 revenue growth is relatively softer due to weakness in Cummins
and Energy portion of IES. CC USD revenue growth could be at the lower end of
the industry band.
Margins will be weaker too - target of FY16 exit margins of 15% instead of full
year margins of 15-16%.
Cutting FY16/FY17 EPS estimate by 9%/5%. Maintain Neutral.
4QFY15 – Deferral of a project and cross currency movement to impact revenues
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Cross currency movements during the quarter will impact USD revenue growth
by 200bp. Normally, due to higher proportion of revenues coming from US
geography cross currency movement impact for KPIT has been half of the
industry.
Geography wise revenue split (%) - 3QFY15
RoW
17%
13.3
Exhibit 1: Higher growth from non-US geographies will increase cross currency impact
Europe
16%
US
67%
Source: MOSL, Company
In 3QFY15 when industry was impacted by 170-220bp by cross currencies,
impact on KPIT was only 90bp. But the growth in 4Q will likely be dominated by
regions outside US, implying that the cross currency impact will be in line with
industry at 200-250bp.
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Apart from currency, revenues will be impacted due to deferral of ramp up in
one JD Edwards project to 1Q, and slippage in milestone of one SAP project to
next quarter. As a result reported USD revenue growth for 4QFY15 is expected
to be flattish and ~2% QoQ in constant currency.
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Lower revenue growth will impact margins as well; we estimate a decline of
100bp QoQ to 12.9% from previously estimated increase of 110bp QoQ to 15%.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
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Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.