12 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Real Estate
Indiabulls Real Estate
BSE SENSEX
28,805
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val,INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
2015E 2016E 2017E
26.4
6.5
1.8
4.6
28.1
8.3
3.3
8.1
77.3
167.3
4.6
6.4
9.0
0.5
30.9
10.4
4.7
11.6
43.7
171.7
6.4
8.0
6.6
0.4
n
n
S&P CNX
8,712
IBREL IN
381.5
29.3/0.5
109/45
7/-5/17
109/45
62.3
n
CMP: INR77
n
TP: INR105 (+36%)
continues;
Buy
operational
Margin disappoints; pre-sales sub-normality
improvement remains key to re-rating
EPS Gr. (%) -22.2
BV/Sh INR 163.3
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2.7
5.2
16.0
0.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
8-10%
10%
n
Revenue in line, margin disappoints:
Indiabulls Real Estate (IBREL) recorded
revenue of INR6.5b, +45% YoY (in-line) in 3QFY15, with continuation of revenue
contribution from Blu. However, margin fails to improve (23.9%, down 1pp QoQ),
with initial round of Blu revenue from lower realizations. EBITDA stood at INR1.6b,
39% YoY, while PAT stood at INR788m (v/s est. of INR697m) led by higher other
income (contributed by forex gain and small asset sales) and lower tax.
Pre-sales muted on NCR drag:
IBREL’s both operating markets, Mumbai and
Gurgaon, have been performing subnormal. Total pre-sales in 3Q stood at 0.3msqft
(INR5.2b) v/s 0.4msqft (INR4b) in 2Q and estimate of INR4.5b. Blu (Worli) remains
a major contributor, 85%+ pre-sales mix. Gurgaon launch (One Indiabulls) was
subdued with no incremental net pre-sales, along with Panvel project, which
witnessed reversal of pre-sales. The premium project at Kalina (0.22,
~INR25,000/sqft) is under immediate launch plan, while London is expected to
commence monetization by FY16.
Gearing up on Thane land acquisitions and weaker collections:
Consolidated net
debt stood at INR53.4b (+INR2.5b QoQ), 0.71x. This was largely driven by INR2.4b
of outgo towards acquisition of 7.2 acres of land in Thane. Customer collections
were weak as well on account of cancellations in Savroli in the earlier quarter.
Lower pre-sales expectations:
We cut the annual pre-sales estimates for
FY16E/17E by ~10%/5% to factor the weaker outlook for NCR. However,
management interaction guides for an improvement in the execution pace at
Central Mumbai and Navi Mumbai (Panvel and Savroli) projects, with no major
approval uncertainty, which should drive monetization hereon.
Valuation and view:
IBREL trades at 0.5/0.4x FY16E/17E BV, a steep discount to
peers and own valuation history (0.75x average P/B). Recovery in operating cycle,
reduction in debt, revival of comfort in overseas project and potential buyback of
IPIT stake would be key near-to-medium term triggers for the stock. We value IBREL
at INR130 as we cut NAV by ~10% to factor the slower pre-sales schedule. We
arrive at a target price of INR105, 20% discount to NAV. Maintain
Buy
(36% upside).
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Indiabulls Real Estate
Exhibit 1: Presales volume declined further (msf)
1.6
Exhibit 2: Presales weak led by subdued operating markets
Sales Value (INRb)
Realization RHS ('000 INR/sf)
15.8
13.4
10.8 10.9
10.7 10.2
10.2 9.3
8.2
7.8 6.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
4.9 4.0 4.9
0.4
0.3
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: We factor in for lower presales in FY16 (msf)
5.9
Exhibit 4: Expect uptick in presales by FY17
Presales (INR b)
Realizations (INR/sf)
3.5
2.8
2.8
3.4
1.7
2.3
2.7
13.5
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
FY10
48.4
FY11
19.8
FY12
30.0
FY13
30.8
FY14
21.2
24.4
40.9
FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 5: Trend in capital efficiencies
10
8
6
4
2
0
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
RoE
RoCE
Exhibit 6: De-levering contingent on presales strengths
Net debt (INR b)
Net DER (x)
0.7
0.3
-0.1
-12.4 -3.9
-0.3
FY8
FY9 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
0.0
3.2
0.1
12.4 23.8 20.9 24.0 51.7 53.7 53.2
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.7
Valuation and views
n
n
With strong asset based, paid land bank and robust visibility of cash flow, IBREL
should be a key beneficiary of demand up-cycle.
Among the projects under development (~29msf ex IPIT), it has almost INR35b
of pending customer collections and INR277b of unsold inventory. These give
net monetization visibility (post construction spending) of INR223b over next 5-6
years of execution cycle. Additionally, the company has launch plan of another
8.6msf with estimated value of UNR127b across key operating market (Mumbai,
NCR and London).
12 February 2015
2

Indiabulls Real Estate
n
n
n
n
The monetization momentum is sub-optimal in Central Mumbai, New Mumbai
and NCR regions. While we expect gradual uptick in sentiment in key operating
markets, NCR regions may remain a near-term drag with weaker outlook.
Gearing has gone up (almost 2x v/s FY14) led by acquisitions (mainly London)
and weakness in operations over past 4-5 quarters. Overseas foray had hurt the
comfort level despite management’s conviction on the London market
dynamics. Successful monetization of the same would be a key thing to watch
out for.
IBREL trades at 0.5/0.4x FY16/17E BV, a steep discount to peers and own
valuation history (0.75x average P/B). Recovery in operating cycle, reduction in
debt, revival of comfort on overseas project and any potential buy back of IPIT
stake would be key near-to-medium term trigger for the stock.
We value IBREL at INR130 as we cut NAV by ~10% to factor in for slower
presales schedule. We set target price at 20% discount to NAV at INR105.
Maintain Buy (36% upside)
Exhibits 7: We calculate IBREL NAV at INR130/share
NAV Calculations
(A) IPIT projects
Residential
Commercial
(-) Net debt
(B) Blu
(C) Other residential
40,355
(D) Net debt
(E) HANOVER Square
16,333
SoTP [A+B+C-D-E)
50,005
43
130
Source: Company, MOSL
51,701
106
136
IIDL liability of INR7b came during demerger; It
has already paid ~INR3b
(INRm)
22,881
10,522
23,859
11,500
22,136
NAV/Share
60
28
63
30
58
Area under valuation
Total area of 6.3msf in IPIT
Sky, Sky Forest and Sky Suites (3.0msf)
Indiabulls One and IFC (3.3msf)
IPIT net debt
Area of 1.25msf
Area of 58msf considered out of total area
under Development of ~73msf of which
approved projects are ~25msf
12 February 2015
3

Indiabulls Real Estate
Financials and valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Construction Expenses
Staff Cost
Office & Site Establis. Exps
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Share of Associate Profits
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Consolidated PAT
Change (%)
FY10
1,294
-38
105
640
1,620
-1,071
-83
126
97
1,699
405
337
83
0
-160
-231
-160
-154
FY11
14,325
1,007
9,892
488
716
3,230
23
184
609
631
3,067
1,293
42
0
1,598
467
1,598
-1,100
FY12
13,916
-3
8,310
1,242
497
3,867
28
209
2,286
951
2,323
641
28
-100
1,658
11
1,658
4
FY13
13,006
-7
6,088
1,674
557
4,686
36
204
2,269
457
2,671
916
34
-13
1,742
-1
1,742
5
FY14
17,362
33
9,029
2,393
537
5,404
31
210
2,213
637
3,619
1,315
36
-65
2,238
44
2,238
29
2015E
26,356
52
16,818
2,512
563
6,462
25
248
4,075
1,150
3,289
888
27
-564
1,837
-18
1,837
-18
2016E
28,059
6
16,353
2,764
620
8,323
30
200
4,499
600
4,224
1,267
30
300
3,257
77
3,257
77
(INR Million)
2017E
30,898
10
16,756
3,040
682
10,420
34
200
5,007
600
5,813
1,918
33
786
4,680
44
4,680
44
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Creditors
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
FY10
803
93,512
94,315
13,632
130,255
2,102
126
1,976
6,451
72,474
53,572
24,489
190
10,454
18,439
4,320
4,320
49,252
130,255
FY11
804
89,833
90,638
28,233
157,943
5,267
465
4,802
18,577
66,698
90,171
47,220
5,840
5,135
31,976
23,866
23,866
66,305
157,943
FY12
948
70,827
71,775
17,291
106,896
3,453
209
3,243
1
49,294
68,640
51,108
9,303
1,605
6,625
14,945
14,945
53,695
106,896
FY13
848
66,941
67,789
16,330
97,752
3,582
413
3,169
716
52,624
70,751
49,782
7,228
4,134
9,607
30,592
30,592
40,159
97,753
FY14
848
67,891
68,739
25,889
96,668
4,000
623
3,377
730
55,665
73,392
46,927
10,163
3,002
13,299
38,019
38,019
35,373
96,668
2015E
848
68,389
69,237
70,000
141,277
4,000
871
3,129
730
58,890
116,640
60,335
18,293
19,394
18,619
39,818
39,818
76,822
141,277
2016E
848
70,084
70,932
64,300
137,271
4,000
1,071
2,929
730
58,890
118,502
67,162
20,122
11,669
19,550
45,485
45,485
73,017
137,271
(INR Million)
2017E
848
71,970
72,818
60,870
135,727
4,000
1,271
2,729
730
58,890
125,236
73,821
22,134
8,753
20,527
53,563
53,563
71,673
135,727
12 February 2015
4

Indiabulls Real Estate
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted FDEPS
Growth (%)
Consolidated FDEPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
FY10
-0.8
-253.6
-0.6
-154.2
0.5
236.8
1.0
-286.5
FY11
4.0
-597.3
4.0
740.1
4.9
235.6
0.3
8.8
FY12
3.5
-11.9
3.5
-11.9
4.0
151.4
0.0
0.0
FY13
4.6
30.5
4.6
30.5
5.1
159.9
2.0
51.2
16.8
15.0
11.4
4.1
0.5
-0.2
0.4
0.1
1.6
2.3
0.3
2.2
4.3
0.2
2.5
5.1
0.2
FY14
5.9
28.5
5.9
28.5
6.6
162.1
3.0
59.8
13.1
11.7
10.5
3.3
0.5
3.3
6.0
0.4
2015E
4.8
-17.9
4.6
-22.2
6.9
163.3
3.0
72.9
16.0
11.1
13.0
3.2
0.5
2.7
5.2
1.0
2016E
8.5
77.3
8.1
77.3
8.3
167.3
4.0
48.0
9.0
9.3
10.4
3.1
0.5
4.6
6.4
0.9
2017E
11.6
36.3
11.6
43.7
10.7
171.7
5.0
42.9
6.6
7.2
8.2
2.8
0.4
6.4
8.0
0.8
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Less : Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
(Inc)/Dec in Networth
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Less : Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
FY10
405
126
97
337
10,379
10,670
-4,835
5,835
-60,127
-64,951
39,119
1,676
97
458
48,838
-5,442
15,897
10,455
FY11
3,067
184
609
1,293
-23,825
-25,007
-15,475
-40,481
5,776
-9,692
-996
23,998
609
141
22,074
-5,319
10,454
5,135
FY12
2,323
209
2,286
641
10,200
16,328
20,180
36,509
2,888
23,291
-25,205
-12,000
2,286
0
-39,491
-3,530
5,135
1,605
FY13
2,671
204
2,269
916
16,144
20,588
-1,048
19,540
-3,331
-3,880
-3,956
-602
2,269
893
-7,902
2,529
1,605
4,134
FY14
3,619
210
2,213
1,315
3,505
8,259
-642
7,618
-3,041
-3,210
-1,252
2,803
2,213
1,339
-2,214
-1,132
4,134
3,002
2015E
3,289
248
4,075
888
-25,058
-18,417
-248
-18,665
-3,225
-3,473
775
44,111
4,075
1,339
39,922
16,391
3,002
19,394
2016E
4,224
200
4,499
1,267
-3,920
3,652
-200
3,452
0
-200
1,862
-5,700
4,499
1,562
-9,449
-7,725
19,394
11,669
(INR Million)
2017E
5,813
200
5,007
1,918
-1,572
7,445
-200
7,245
0
-200
2,009
-3,430
5,007
2,009
-7,787
-2,916
11,669
8,753
12 February 2015
5

Indiabulls Real Estate
Corporate profile: Indiabulls Real Estate
Company description
IBREL, the de-merged real estate arm of Indiabulls
Financial Services (IBFSL), listed on the Bombay
Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange in
March2007. It entered the real estate sector in
2005 after it won two land parcels at auction bids
of textile mill land in central Mumbai. The company
is focused on development and sale of residential
properties in tier-I cities like the NCR, Mumbai and
Chennai and rental of commercial properties to be
developed in Mumbai.
Exhibit 8: Sensex rebased
Exhibit 9: Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-14
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
37.7
1.3
22.1
38.9
Sep-14
37.7
1.3
29.0
31.9
Dec-13
49.3
0.4
27.8
22.5
Exhibit 10: Top holders
Holder Name
Hsbc Global Investment Funds A/C Hsbc Gif Mauritius
Joindre Finance Pvt Ltd
Payone Enterprises Pvt Ltd
Jasol Investment And Trading Co. Pvt Ltd
Merill Lynch Capital Markets Espana Sa Sv
% Holding
3.2
2.5
2.4
2.1
2.1
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 11: Top management
Name
Sameer Gehlaut
Narendra Gehlaut
Designation
Chairman
Managing Director
Exhibit 12: Directors
Name
Sameer Gehlaut
Narendra Gehlaut
Karan Singh*
Aishwarya Katoch*
*Independent
Name
Labh Singh Sitara*
Prem Prakash Mirdha*
Shamsher Singh Ahlawat*
Exhibit 13: Auditors
Name
Sharma Goyal & Co LLP
Walker Chandiok & Co LLP
Type
Statutory
Statutory
Exhibit 14: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
FY15
FY16
FY17
MOSL
forecast
4.8
8.5
11.6
Consensus
forecast
5.7
8.0
13.0
Variation
(%)
-16.3
6.0
-10.5
12 February 2015
6

Indiabulls Real Estate
NOTES
12 February 2015
7

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Indiabulls Real Estate
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