17 January 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Mahindra Financial Services
BSE SENSEX
28,122
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
S&P CNX
8,514
MMFS IN
563.5
CMP: INR308
TP: INR310 (+1%)
Neutral
Asset quality pressures impacting growth and profitability
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services’ (MMFS) 3QFY15 PAT de-grew 17% YoY &
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
173.6/2.9
34% QoQ to INR1.36b. While the net income of INR7.5b +10%YoY was In-line with est.
52-Week Range (INR)
345/230
continued weakness in asset quality led to significantly higher provisions of INR 2.7b,
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
2/9/-21
(22% above est.) resulting 26% lower than estimated PAT.
Key highlights:
Avg Val (INR M)/Vol ‘000 492/1813
Significant increase in GNPAs of 65% YoY and 17% QoQ in absolute terms was a
Free float (%)
47.9
negative surprise. In percentage terms, GNPA stood at 7.1% v/s 6.3% a quarter ago
and 4.8% a year ago. NNPAs are at a four-year high at 3.4% v/s 3.1% a quarter ago
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
and 2.2% 3QFY14. Credit cost for the quarter stood at 3.15% - at a 5-year high.
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
Calculated margins declined by 33bp QoQ to 8.74%, led by moderation in loan
NII
29.9 33.8
39.9
growth and interest income reversals (impact of 40 bp on margins); however
PPP
20.0 22.2
26.5
adjusting for the impact margins have increased 7bp QoQ.
PAT
8.1
9.7
12.1
Weak demand and focus on recoveries led to moderation in AUM growth at 10%
EPS (INR)
14.5 17.2
21.4
YoY and 2% QoQ to INR 345b. Consolidation of CV/CE book (-10% YoY and -5%
EPS Gr. (%)
-8.2 19.2
24.2
QoQ) led to its share in AUM decline to 13% v/s +16% in 3QFY14. Incremental
BV/Sh. (INR) 100.8 113.2 128.6
AUM growth YoY is driven by Auto/utility vehicles (50% of incremental AUM).
ABV/Sh.(INR) 89.6 101.8 117.0
Other highlights: a) Overall CAR stood at 18.1% with tier 1 of 115.6% b) Cost to
RoA on AUM 2.4
2.6
2.8
(%)
income stood 36.2% improved YoY. c) INR 1.83b securitized during the quarter d)
RoE (%)
15.1 16.1
17.7
No of NPL account increased 15% QoQ at 85,000.
Payout (%) 28.1 28.1
28.1
Valuation and view:
Decline in wholesale rates, securitization and less focus on
Valuations
growth will aid NIM. However, continued deterioration in asset quality and increased
P/E (x)
21.3 17.9
14.4
risk on the back of persistent challenges in several states is impacting collections
P/BV (x)
3.1
2.7
2.4
P/ABV (x)
3.4
3.0
2.6
efficiencies will keep growth, profitability under pressure. We downgrade earnings
Div. Yield (%) 1.1
1.3
1.7
estimates by 8% for FY15E and 5/2% for FY16E/17E to factor the higher asset quality
stress. Maintain
Neutral.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.