6 November 2014
2QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
BSE SENSEX
27,916
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
S&P CNX
8,338
TRP IN
169.2
940/452
-2/32/1
CMP: INR922
n
TP: INR1068
Upgrade to Buy
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 156.1/2.5
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.INR
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2015E 2016E 2017E
48,550 56,733 65,175
12,117 14,260 16,809
7,650
40.8
29
144
31.8
29.1
22.6
6.4
7,934
46.9
15
174
29.4
24.1
19.7
5.3
9,998
59.1
26
213
30.5
26.8
15.6
4.3
Revenues for 2QFY15 grew 25% YoY to INR12.2b (est. INR13.4b). EBITDA grew 53%
YoY to INR2.7b (miss of 15%), with EBITDA margins at 22.4% (est. 24%). Reported
PAT grew 75% YoY to INR1.9b (est. INR1.7b).
n
US posted 45% growth (miss of 30%) due to charge backs on account of
gCymbalta. Domestic business grew in line at 49% to INR4.4b with additional sales
of INR945 from Elder brands during this quarter. Core India business grew 17%
YoY, in line with est. Revenue growth in LatAm surprised us positively, while
growth in other markets was in line with estimates.
n
EBITDA margins at 22.4% were 160bp lower than est. Margins were largely
impacted by lower sales in US. PAT beat was largely driven by higher other income
(forex gain not quantified by the company) and lower tax rate
n
Concall highlights:
US growth is likely to get stabilized over the next few quarters,
8-10 new launches are expected in FY15. India to sustain above-industry growth
momentum led by improving MR productivity and contribution from Elder (price
increases/new launches). Growth in Brazil is also likely to sustain aided by strong
volume growth and contribution from institution and generic businesses. Europe
to see underline business growth 8-10%, led by few new launches and tenders.
Post the 2QFY15 results, we have broadly retained our EPS estimates for FY15-FY17.
We see operating leverage coming into play over the medium term particularly in
markets like US and Brazil. We expect growth momentum in India (ex Elder portfolio)
to continue while Brazil is expected to show stronger performance over the next few
quarters which should aid margin expansion. Performance of Elder brands is likely to
accelerate through price increases and new launches. We expect earnings growth in
FY17 to be very strong as Elder contribution turns positive. Over FY15-FY17, we expect
TRP to witness a core EPS CAGR of 23%. We upgrade the stock to Buy from Neutral
with a revised target price of INR1,068 (18x FY17E). Execution issues in India are a key
downside risk to our estimates
Alok Dalal
(Alok.Dalal@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(Amey.Chalke@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.