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CPI inflation lowest-ever at 6.5%
Broad-based decline to prompt RBI to cut rates earlier
13 October 2014
The Economy Observer
Sep-14 CPI Inflation
The Sep-14 CPI Rural Urban (CPI-RU) inflation at 6.5% was lowest-ever
for the new series and was somewhat better than expectations (MOSL
6.9%; Consensus 7.1%).
The CPI index remained static implying no inflation MoM - thus the
sharp decline was not due to base effect alone.
Vegetables contributed to 44bp drop in MoM inflation while cereals
contributed another 13bp. Deceleration in fuel group inflation
contributed 7bp while ‘transportation and communication’ group
within services sector of CPI contributed to another 16bp drop in
MoM inflation.
Sep-14 CPI-RU lowest ever at 6.5%
CPI index remained static MoM
Vegetables inflation declined to 8.6% from
15% during Aug-14; contributed 44bp drop
Fuel and ‘transportation & commnications’
group resulted in 23bp drop
Core CPI lowest ever at 5.9%; rural core
lower and falling at a faster rate
Rural inflation marginally higher than
urban inflation due to fuel and clothing
With broad-based decline in CPI and IIP
remaining near zero, expect RBI to cut
rates 2-3 quarter ahead of consensus
Core inflation made a new low of 5.9% with rural core lower than
their urban counterpart and also recording faster decline. At the aggregate level however, rural inflation stood
moderately higher than urban inflation due to somewhat higher inflation for fuel and clothing group.
With inflation showing signs of broad-based decline, RBI is expected to cut rates 2-3 quarters ahead of consensus.
Sep-14 CPI lowest ever at 6.5%; vegetables contributed to 44bp decline
CPI-RU inflation lowest ever:
The CPI-Rural Urban (CPI-RU) inflation fell sharply
to their lowest level ever to 6.5%, somewhat better than expectations (MOSL
6.9%, Consensus 7.1%). 1HFY15 average CPI-RU inflation at 7.7% was 185bp
lower than 9.6% during 1HFY14.
Not just base effect:
The value of CPI-RU index remained static MoM implying
that the YoY decline in inflation was not contributed by a favourable base effect
alone.
Vegetables prices fell MoM:
The vegetable prices declined -1.9% MoM resulting
in near halving of the YoY vegetable inflation to 8.6% from 15% a month back.
This alone led to 44bp correction out of total 127bp correction in overall CPI
inflation MoM. Cereal prices led to another 13b correction. Altogether food
inflation fell sharply to 7.6% from 9.1% a month back, contributing o 79bp
correction in CPI inflation MoM.
Benefit from lower oil prices:
Fuel group inflation declined to lowest ever to
3.5% (from 4.2% during Aug-14). On the other hand the ‘transportation and
communication’ group within services sector of CPI too fell sharply to just 2.5%
from 4.7% a month back. These two groups resulted in 7bp and 16bp decline in
overall CPI inflation MoM.
Core inflation at new record low of 5.9%:
The core retail inflation broke the
record low of previous month and went below 6% (at 5.9% it meant a 93bp drop
MoM. Again base effect had very little influence on this. Rural core (at 5.6%)
stood lower than their urban counterpart (6.1%) and also witnessed sharper
MoM drop (112bp vs. 81bp in urban areas).
Dipankar Mitra
(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.