19 July 2014
1QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Ultratech Cement
BSE SENSEX
25,642
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
7,664
UTCEM IN
274.0
2,868/1,405
-11/27/5
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
NP
AdjEPS(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuation
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
EV/Ton
(
)
32.2
3.7
15.7
184
21.0
3.2
11.0
176
14.1
2.6
7.4
163
2015E 2016E 2017E
243.4 294.6 349.7
45.0
21.7
79.3
4.8
12.1
14.4
14.7
64.8
33.3
121.4
53.2
805.8
16.2
18.3
10.5
88.5
49.4
180.1
48.3
978.6
20.2
23.6
7.7
CMP: INR2,548
TP: INR2,945
Buy
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 698.3/11.6
BV/Sh (INR) 690.5
Net sales in line, marginal beat in cement:
With marginal contribution from
recently acquired Gujarat (JPA) plant (contributing since 12
th
June 2014 onward),
Ultratech’s (UTCEM) 1QFY15 net sales grew 14%YoY (-3% QoQ) to INR56.5b (in
line v/s est of INR55.8b). Cement revenue marginally beat estimates, while RMC
and White cement were lower than estimates.
Cement volume, realizations at par:
Grey Cement volume grew 16% YoY (-4%
QoQ) at 11.7mt v/s est of 14.7%YoY growth, while realizations stood at INR4,117
(flat YoY, +3.6% QoQ), ahead of estimates of INR4,032/ton. White cement (incl.
Putty) volume grew by 2.9% YoY v/s est of 8%YoY) to 0.257mt, while RMC volume
grew by 1.7% YoY (v/s est of 7%YoY)
EBITDA in line with moderate QoQ cost push:
EBITDA de-grew 4%YoY (+12%
QoQ) to INR 10.1b (v/s est INR10.2b), translating into EBITDA margins of 17.8% (-
1.8pp QoQ; v/s est 18.3%). Blended EBITDA/ton stood at INR852 (-INR174 YoY, -
INR74 QoQ), v/s est INR855/ton. Cost/ton was up INR125/ton QoQ led by (1)
higher pet coke price, (2) higher spends of sales and marketing, and (3) higher
staff cost. PAT was in line at INR6.2b (-7% YoY).
Guidance of double growth in 2HFY15:
Management guided for cement demand
growth over 7-8%, with double digit growth in 2HFY15.
Cutting EPS to factor in Gujarat plant impact:
We are keeping cement
assumptions unlettered, while lowered RMC and White cement revenue by 3-8%.
To factor in for newly acquired Gujarat (JPA) plant of 4.8mt, we are cutting our
FY15/16 EPS by 13%/8% due to higher depreciation and interest cost. The stock
trades at 21x/14.1x FY16E/17E EPS, 11/7.4x EV/EBITDA and USD176/163 per ton.
We maintain
Buy
with target price of INR2,945 (FY16 EV/ton of USD200/ton and
implied EV/EBITDA of 12.6x FY16E).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.