28 April 2014
4QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Hindustan Unilever
BSE SENSEX
22,632
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
MCap INR b/USD b
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,761
HUVR IN
2,162.7
1,255.7/20.7
725/458
-4/-12/7
CMP: INR581
TP: INR550
Sell
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
AdjEPS(INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2014 2015E 2016E
274.1
45.3
36.1
16.4
7.3
26.8
61.4
83.5
35.3
21.7
311.1
51.0
38.9
18.0
9.5
31.3
57.5
80.3
32.2
18.5
354.1
58.5
44.1
20.4
13.4
36.5
55.9
79.0
28.4
15.9
Hindustan Unilever’s (HUVR) 4QFY14 performance was largely in line with our
expectations. Net revenue grew 9.7% to INR70.9b (est. INR69.8b), led by volume
growth of 3% (est. 3%), EBITDA grew 10.9% to INR10.8b (est. INR10.5b) and
recurring PAT posted a growth of 6.6% to INR8.32b (est. INR8.25b).
Key positives: a) gross margin expansion of 50bp, b) strong 200bp margin
expansion in Beverages.
Key negatives: a) single digit sales growth in Soaps and Detergents and Personal
Products division, b) subdued 5.1% EBIT growth in Personal products.
Gross margin expansion of 50bp to 47.4% (est. 47.4%) was driven by price hikes in
Soaps and curtailment of promotions.
Soaps and Detergents revenue grew 9.6% driven by pricing. EBIT grew 10.1%, with
10bp margin expansion to 12.1%.
Personal products sales grew 8.3% led by double digit growth in Hair Care. PP
margins contracted 80bp YoY to 25% on account of higher adpro spends in Oral
Care. F&L re-launch is yielding positive response, as per management.
Management call highlights:
a) slowdown is universal – across categories,
geographies, b) some downtrading witnessed – small packs finding greater
acceptance, c)
TRESemme
is on the verge of crossing INR1b brand milestone
without cannibalizing existing brands, d) water business has delivered profits for
both FY13 and FY14, e) FY15 effective tax rate to be higher by 250bp.
Valuation and view:
HUVR’s 4QFY14 performance and management commentary
does not indicate any imminent trend reversal. Valuation at 32.4x FY15E and
28.8x FY16E remains rich, in our view, given the context of subdued volume
growth. Maintain
Sell
with a one-year forward revised target price of INR550 (27x
FY16E EPS). Reversal in consumer sentiments is the key upside risk.
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.