23 April 2014
4QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Ultratech Cement
BSE SENSEX
22,877
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,841
UTCEM IN
274.2
595.2/9.7
2,275/1,405
6/1/-3
CMP: INR2,171
TP: INR2,340
Neutral
Operating performance in-line, as lower realizations off-set higher volumes
Net sales grew 8.2%YoY (+22% QoQ) to INR58.3b (in line). Grey Cement volume
beats estimates at 12.18mt (+9.4% YoY, +22% QoQ v/s est 11.58MT). Blended
realization's (incl. white cement) stood at INR 4,723/ton (flat QoQ v/s est
INR4,867/ton). Grey cement realizations surprised negatively with QoQ flat trend
at INR3,912/ton (-2.5% YoY, -0.6% QoQ) v/s est of INR4,189/ton, due to higher
clinker mix – otherwise domestic realizations has gone up ~2% QoQ.
EBITDA de-grew 5%YoY (+50% QoQ) to INR 11.4b (v/s est INR11.8b), translating
into EBITDA margins of 19.6% (+3.6pp QoQ & -2.6pp YoY; v/s est 20.2%). Blended
EBITDA/ton stood at INR926 (-INR137 YoY, +INR171 QoQ) v/s est INR1,017/ton.
Weaker realizations translate into slippage in profitability despite cost savings
from lower staff expense and benefits of operating leverage.
Higher other income (treasury income and sales tax refund), lower interest
(repayment of short term loans) and tax write back led to reported PAT of
~INR8.3b (v/s est ~INR6.6b). Adjusted PAT (tax write back of INR956m) stood at
INR7.6b, +5% YoY (+127% QoQ). It has declared dividend of INR9/share.
Raising grey cement volume assumptions (FY15E) to 9.8% (v/s 8% earlier), while
lowering realization assumption to INR233/ton (v/s INR250/ton earlier). It
translates into EBITDA/ton of INR997/1,121 in FY15/16 (marginal cut from earlier
est.). Consequently, EPS for FY15/16 remain largely intact (cutting by 1/1.6%).
Based on preliminary estimates for consolidation of Jaypee's Gujarat plant, the
stock trades at 25.2x/19x FY15/16 EPS, 12.4/10.2x EV/EBITDA and USD151/ton.
Current valuations factor in for potential recovery in FY15/16. Maintain
Neutral
with TP of INR2,340 (FY16 EV/ton of USD160/ton and EV/EBITDA of 11x FY16E).
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
AdjEPS(INR)
Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
EV/Ton
( S )
2014 2015E 2016E
200,779232,940267,139
36,160 46,040 55,800
75.6
-21.9
12.8
14.4
28.7
3.5
15.6
155
94.3
24.7
14.2
16.4
23.0
3.1
12.3
149
114.5
21.4
15.1
18.3
19.0
2.7
10.2
148
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

Ultratech Cement
Net sales in line with better grey Cement volume beat, and lower
realization; White cement sales beats est on better realizations
Net sales grew 8.2%YoY (+22% QoQ) to INR58.3b (in line).
Grey Cement volume beats estimates at 12.18mt (+9.4% YoY, +22% QoQ v/s est
11.58MT). White cement (incl. Putty) volume grew by 11.5% YoY (+14% QoQ) to
0.33mt (in line), while RMC volume grew by ~2% YoY (+18% QoQ).
Blended realization's (incl. white cement) stood at INR 4,723/ton (flat QoQ v/s
est INR4,867/ton). Grey cement realizations surprised negatively with QoQ flat
trend at INR3,912/ton (-2.5% YoY, -0.6% QoQ) v/s est of INR4,189/ton due to
higher clinker mix – otherwise domestic realizations has gone up ~2% QoQ.
Trend in White cement volume
White Cement incl Putty('000 ton)
21
17
13
10 11
8
5
-1
Growth (%)
15
10 11
Grey cement volume beats, with QoQ flat realization
Realizations (INR/ton)
11.5
10.8
9.9
9.2
10.1
10.3
9.3
9.9
Dispatches (m ton)
12.2
11.1
10.1
10.0
9.2
9
11
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
RMC segment improves
16
2
RMC Volumes (m cu mtr)
19
11
10
10
1
5
-9 -5
-14
Growth (%)
4
11
Source: Company, MOSL
Profitability weaker on lower realizations; lower staff cost and operating
leverage benefits cost; higher other income, lower interest, tax drive PAT
EBITDA de-grew 5%YoY (+50% QoQ) to INR 11.4b (v/s est INR11.8b), translating
into EBITDA margins of 19.6% (+3.6pp QoQ & -2.6pp YoY; v/s est 20.2%).
Blended EBITDA/ton stood at INR926 (-INR137 YoY, +INR171 QoQ) v/s est
INR1,017/ton. Weaker realizations translate into slippage in profitability despite
cost savings from lower staff expense (actuarial movement) and benefits of
operating leverage with stable variable cost.
Further higher other income (due to treasury income and sales tax refund),
lower interest cost (due to repayment of short term loans) and tax write back of
2
23 April 2014

Ultratech Cement
~INR956m led to reported PAT of ~INR8.3b (v/s est ~INR6.6b). Adjusted PAT (for
tax write back of INR956m) stood at INR7.6b, +5% YoY (+127% QoQ).
Profitability improvement lower than expected
27.3
23.0
14.9
EBITDA (INR m)
25.4
20.9
23.7
EBITDA (%)
21.4 21.1 22.2 21.2
14.7 16.0
19.6
Trend in EBITDA/ton (INR)
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Trend in key operating parameters (incl RMC & white cement business)
INR/Ton
Realization
RM Cost
Power & Fuel
Staff Cost
Freight & Forwarding
Other Expenditure
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
4QFY14
4,723
788
961
190
1,106
751
3,797
926
4QFY13
4,776
753
936
231
1,059
735
3,714
1,063
YoY (%)
-1.1
4.7
2.7
-17.6
4.4
2.3
2.2
-12.9
3QFY14
4,725
806
990
241
1,105
829
3,971
754
QoQ (%)
-0.1
-2.3
-2.9
-21.0
0.1
-9.3
-4.4
22.7
Source: Company, MOSL
Volume outlook contingent
Outlook unaltered:
The long term cement demand in likely to grow over 8% in
line with GDP growth. The value drivers for growth will continue to be housing
demand and infrastructure development.
During 4QFY14, the company has commissioned cement grinding capacity of
1.45mt at Malkhed (Karnataka), 30 MW thermal power plant at Chhattisgarh,
and 6.5MW waste heat recovery system at Maharashtra.
It plans to invest ~INR100b in setting-up pending grinding units (~4.6mt in FY15)
and brownfield expansion at Rajasdthan (~3mt by end FY16), alongwith
investments in modernization and upgradation.
It has declared dividend of INR9/share (similar to FY13).
Cutting realization assumption marginally, moderate raise in volume
assumptions keep FY15/16 EPS up by 1-1.6%
We are upgrading our assumptions on grey cement volume (FY15E) to 9.8% (v/s
8% earlier) driven by commissioning of new capacities, while moderating
realization assumption marginally to INR233/ton (v/s INR250/ton earlier). It
translates into EBITDA/ton of INR997/1,121 in FY15/16 (marginal moderation
from earlier estimates). Consequently, EPS estimates for FY15/16 remain largely
intact (cutting by 1/1.6%).
3
23 April 2014

Ultratech Cement
Based on our preliminary estimates for consolidation of Jaypee's Gujarat plant,
the stock trades at 25.2x/19x FY15/16 EPS, 12.4/10.2x EV/EBITDA and
USD151/ton. Current valuations factor in for potential recovery in FY15/16,
benefit of which would be diluted due to initial impact of Jaypee's Gujarat plant
acquisition by 1HFY15. Maintain
Neutral
with target price of INR2,340 (FY16
EV/ton of USD160/ton and implied EV/EBITDA of 11x FY16E).
Ultratech: Revised forecast
(INR b)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
Key Assumptions
Volume Gr (%)
Real Chg (INR/ton)
EBITDA (INR/ton)
9.8
233
997
8.1
250
1,014
7.8
250
1,121
7.8
250
1,137
Source: Company, MOSL
Rev
232.9
46.0
25.9
94.3
FY15E
Old
230.3
45.7
25.6
93.3
Chg (%)
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.0
Rev
267.1
55.8
31.4
114.5
FY16E
Old
264.0
55.2
30.9
112.7
Chg (%)
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.6
23 April 2014
4

Ultratech Cement
Story in Charts
Demonstrated s a steady growth in capacity
83
Capacity (MT)
Dispatches (MT)
83
79
70
49.4
40.7
FY12
51.5
40.7
FY13
59.1
41.5
FY14
62.0
45.5
62.0
49.1
25,597
17,041 19,711
FY09
FY10
FY11
40,039 45,185 36,160 46,040
55,800
Cap. Util (%)
79
73
70
49.4
34.7
FY11
26.7
28.0
19.4
22.0
22.6
18.0
19.8
20.9
Expect margins to improve over FY15-16
EBITDA (INR m)
Margin (%)
21.9
71
48.8
18.2
FY09
34.7
FY10
FY15E FY16E
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Trend in EBITDA/ton (INR)
Trend in net profit
EPS (Rs)
71.3
EPS Growth (%)
114.5
94.3
75.6
10.3
-21.9
-41.7
FY11
24.7
21.4
939
981
730
970
1096
859
997
1121
78.5
87.8
51.2
87.8
11.9
96.8
-3.0
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E
FY09
FY10
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Return ratio to see gradual uptick (%)
RoE
29.2
31.0
28.5
21.1
26.6
18.4
20.5
18.9
12.8
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
14.2
23.5
21.4
14.4
16.4
18.3
RoCE
Strengthening of operating cash flow to drive FCF
CFO (INR b)
CAPEX (INR b)
FCF (INR b)
28.7
13.0
15.1
6.8
8.6
3.0
3.1
12.3
4.0
FY14 FY15E FY16E
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
23 April 2014
5

Ultratech Cement
Ultratech Cement: an investment profile
Company description
UltraTech Cement, the erstwhile cement division of L&T
Ltd, is a subsidiary of Grasim, a part of the Aditya Birla
Group. Post merger of Grasim’s cement business, it is
the largest cement company in India with a total
cement capacity of 61.5mt (by 1QFY16) with a pan-India
presence. It is the largest exporters of cement and
clinker from India. Post merger, it would be the largest
cement company in India and 10th largest in the world.
Recent developments
It has declared dividend of INR9/share (similar to
FY13).
Valuation and view
Key investment arguments
The largest cement company with pan-India
presence.
Potential to increase throughput without incurring
major capex by increasing utilization and blending,
along with locational advantage, gives it the
flexibility to either export or sell in the domestic
market.
Significant potential to increase throughput by
increasing blending.
Allied businesses of white cement and RMC lend
stability to overall performance.
High
operating
leverage,
especially
post
commissioning of new capacities in 1QFY14, could
result in volatile earnings.
Based on our preliminary estimates for consolidation
of Jaypee's Gujarat plant, the stock trades at
25.2x/19x FY15/16 EPS, 12.4/10.2x EV/EBITDA and
US$151/ton.
Current valuations factor in for potential recovery in
FY15/16, benefit of which would be diluted due to
initial impact of Jaypee's Gujarat plant acquisition by
1HFY15. Maintain
Neutral
with target price of
INR2,340 (FY16 EV/ton of USD160/ton and implied
EV/EBITDA of 11x FY16E).
Sector view
Key investments risks
Pricing environment is expected to remain strong till
on-set of monsoon. Stable government would be key
driver of demand and pricing recovery from 2HFY15
onwards.
Structural increase in cost base (both capex and
opex) would necessitate higher cement prices.
Revival in cement demand would be key catalyst for
the stock performance.
Comparative valuations
UltraTech
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/Ton ($)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
28.7
23.0
3.5
3.1
155
149
15.4
12.2
ACC
27.8
19.6
3.2
3.0
115
107
15.7
10.2
ACEM
26.8
21.9
4.2
3.8
179
171
15.5
11.8
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL
Forecast
FY15
FY16
94.3
114.5
Consensus
Forecast
99.0
120.0
Variation
(%)
-4.7
-4.6
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
2,171
Target
Price (INR)
2,340
Upside
(%)
7.8
Reco
Neutral
Shareholding pattern (%)
Mar-14
Promoter
Domestic Inst
Foreign
Others
61.8
4.9
23.6
9.8
Dec-13
62.0
4.6
23.7
9.8
Mar-13
62.0
4.6
23.5
9.9
Stock performance (1-year)
23 April 2014
6

Ultratech Cement
Financials and valuation
Income statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Extraordinary items
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Min. Int. & Assoc. Share
Adj Cons PAT
(INR Million)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
200,230 200,779 232,940 267,139
10.2
0.3
16.0
14.7
45,185 36,160 46,040 55,800
22.6
18.0
19.8
20.9
9,454 10,523 12,362 14,112
35,731 25,637 33,678 41,688
2,097
3,192
3,570
3,396
4,620
5,310
4,600
5,000
0
956
0
0
38,254 28,711 34,709 43,293
11,700
7,266
8,851 11,905
30.6
25.3
25.5
27.5
26,554 21,445 25,858 31,387
26,554 20,731 25,858 31,387
10.4
-21.9
24.7
21.4
0
0
0
0
26,554 20,731 25,858 31,387
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price / Book Value
EV/ton (USD-Cap)
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Leverage Ratios (%)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
2013
96.8
131.3
555.7
9.0
10.9
22.4
16.5
3.9
0.0
12.5
0.4
18.9
21.4
0.9
18.5
42.8
69.1
0.4
2014
75.6
114.0
623.5
9.0
13.9
28.7
19.0
3.5
0.0
15.6
0.4
12.8
14.4
0.8
23.3
43.1
76.1
0.3
2015E
94.3
139.4
706.1
10.0
12.3
23.0
15.6
3.1
0.0
12.3
0.5
14.2
16.4
0.9
15.0
45.0
74.0
0.3
2016E
114.5
165.9
806.6
12.0
12.2
19.0
13.1
2.7
0.0
10.2
0.6
15.1
18.3
0.9
15.0
45.0
74.0
0.2
Balance sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
2013
2,742
149,606
152,348
54,085
19,059
225,493
213,822
82,599
131,224
35,054
51,087
56,723
23,505
10,172
1,427
21,619
48,595
37,903
10,692
8,128
225,493
2014
2,742
168,233
170,975
51,993
22,958
245,927
240,256
93,121
147,134
32,000
53,917
64,489
23,684
12,810
2,775
25,220
51,614
41,884
9,730
12,875
245,926
(INR Million)
2015E
2016E
2,742
2,742
190,904 218,467
193,646 221,209
49,993 44,993
23,305 24,604
266,945 290,807
280,256 320,256
105,483 119,595
174,772 200,660
30,000 10,000
22,475 27,475
96,496 117,809
28,719 32,935
9,573 10,978
29,486 40,961
28,719 32,935
56,799 65,138
47,226 54,160
9,573 10,978
39,697 52,671
266,945 290,807
E: MOSL Estimates
Cash flow statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Others
Interest
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg Cap
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invt
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
2013
36,790
9,454
0
566
-7,165
-3,887
35,727
-32,676
-10,349
0
-43,025
79
12,557
-3,268
-2,539
6,829
-469
1,896
1,427
2014
25,637
10,523
0
5,310
-3,367
-3,399
35,660
-23,380
-2,830
0
-26,209
69
-2,092
-3,192
-2,887
-8,102
1,349
1,427
2,775
(INR Million)
2015E
33,678
12,362
0
4,600
-8,504
-111
42,026
-38,000
31,441
0
-6,559
0
-2,000
-3,570
-3,187
-8,756
26,711
2,775
29,486
2016E
41,688
14,112
0
5,000
-10,607
-1,499
48,695
-20,000
-5,000
0
-25,000
0
-5,000
-3,396
-3,824
-12,220
11,475
29,486
40,961
23 April 2014
7

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Disclosure of Interest Statement
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock
3. Broking relationship with company covered
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered
ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD
No
No
No
Yes
Ultratech Cement
Analyst Certification
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23 April 2014
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