11 March 2013
Update | Sector: Metals
Rain Commodities
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
19,683
5,946
CMP: INR40
From strength to strength
TP: INR76
Buy
Rutgers acquisition to add significant value; Demonstrated ability to
deleverage; Valuation attractive
Bloomberg
RCOL IN
Equity Shares (m)
341.9
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 13.6/0.2
52-Week Range (INR)
48/31
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
11/-4/-10
Valuation summary (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2012 2013E 2014E
Sales
53.6 115.2 116.6
EBITDA
11.4
17.5
17.8
NP
4.6
6.2
6.6
Adj. EPS (INR) 13.4
18.0
19.2
EPS Gr(%)
-29.6
34.4
6.5
BV/Sh. (INR) 73.2
89.9 107.8
RoE (%)
18.3
20.0
17.8
RoCE (%)
15.9
13.8
13.2
Payout (%)
9.5
7.1
6.7
Valuations
P/E (x)
3.0
2.2
2.1
P/BV
0.5
0.4
0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3
4.2
3.8
Div. Yield (%) 2.8
2.8
2.8
* RCOL follows Calendar year
reporting; Price as on 8 March 2013.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Dec-12 Sep-12 Dec-11
Promoter
44.0
43.7
42.9
Dom. Inst 15.1
15.6
18.5
Foreign
19.7
18.6
15.8
Others
21.2
22.1
22.8
In January 2013, Rain Commodities Ltd (RCOL) completed the acquisition of
Europe-based coal tar distiller Rutgers for a gross enterprise value of
Euro702m. We believe the acquisition will add significant value to RCOL's
business due to the following reasons:
Post acquisition, RCOL's product diversification to improve; no product
will contribute more than 37% to revenues.
Potential synergies on complimentary nature of CPC and CT pitch.
Rutgers business operating performance has been robust despite
challenging business environment. EBITDA posted a CAGR of 14% over
CY09-12.
Severstal JV to result in additional supply of coal tar to European
operations. This will take care of ~28% of European operations' coal tar
needs, thus mitigating the effect of declining European supplies.
Acquisition to result in EPS accretion of 13% and 16% in CY13E and CY14E
respectively.
RCOL has demonstrated the ability to sustain large acquisitions; CII acquisition
added significant value.
RCOL saw a net debt reduction of USD305m in the last five years; USD400m of
equity value generation went unnoticed.
Net debt/EBITDA at comfortable levels of 3.5x; major debt repayment to
start only in 2018.
RCOL trades at 3.8x CY14E EV/EBITDA. Valuation multiple are much below its
peers; US listing will further rerate the stock.
Acquisition, a shot in the arm for RCOL
In January 2013, Rain CII Carbon LLC, a 100% step down subsidiary of RCOL,
completed Rutgers' acquisition for a gross enterprise value of Euro702m through
its 100% subsidiary Rain CTP Inc (RCTP). Rutgers is the leading coal tar distiller in
Europe and the second largest coal tar distiller in the world. It has three coal tar
distillation sites, along with six downstream (refining) facilities.
We believe the acquisition will add significant value to RCOL's business due to
the following reasons:
Stock performance (1 year)
Rutgers is a diversified play; No industry accounts for more than 17%
of revenues
It is a more diversified player compared to RCOL in the carbon business market,
with end products' usage varying across sectors such as aluminum, textiles,
papers, industrial chemicals, rubber, construction etc. No industry accounts for
more than 17% of its revenues. Aluminum smelters and chemical industry are
the largest contributors to revenues, with a share of 17% each.
Investors are advised to refer through
disclosures made at the end of the
Research Report.
Pavas Pethia
(Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5413
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412