March 2013
Dashboard
The Monthly Auto Update
Data Track:
February 2013 volume update of auto majors
Sector overview and outlook ........................................................... 2
Hero MotoCorp ................................................................................. 3
Bajaj Auto .......................................................................................... 4
Maruti Suzuki .................................................................................... 6
Mahindra & Mahindra ....................................................................... 8
Tata Motors ...................................................................................... 10
Ashok Leyland ................................................................................. 12
Eicher Motors .................................................................................. 13
TVS Motor ........................................................................................ 14
Domestic brand-wise PV volumes for February 2013 .................... 15
Speedometer
February 2013 relative performance
MOSL Auto Index
104
101
98
95
92
1-Feb
10-Feb
19-Feb
28-Feb
Sens ex
Special Report
Two-wheeler dealer survey: Demand weakens further ............... 17
12-month relative performance
MOSL Auto Index
Sensex
128
Sector Gauge:
January update
Two-wheelers ................................................................................. 19
Three-wheelers .............................................................................. 21
Cars and UVs .................................................................................... 23
Commercial vehicles....................................................................... 26
116
104
92
80
News and Events
............................................................................... 28
Nissan to set up Datsun plant in Chennai
Ashok Leyland to launch Avia trucks in India by July
Aggregate Volumes For February 2013*
Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13
Segment
Feb-13
Feb-12
YoY (%)
Jan-13 MoM (%)
YTDFY13
2-Wheelers
964,614
1,005,278
-4.0
1,037,751
-7.0
10,941,134
Motorcycl e
864,704
896,236
-3.5
930,793
-7.1
9,808,130
3-Whe el e rs
50,694
49,992
1.4
52,083
-2.7
550,655
Ca rs
113,127
149,170
-24.2
121,218
-6.7
1,163,877
UVs
49,564
41,986
18.0
51,363
-3.5
543,494
Commercial Vehicles
65,629
73,413
-10.6
61,332
7.0
640,133
LCV
43,665
38,975
12.0
41,305
5.7
425,772
M&HCV
21,964
34,438
-36.2
20,027
9.7
214,361
Tra ctors
14,861
15,316
-3.0
17,473
-14.9
206,552
Total Volumes
1,258,489
1,335,155
-5.7
1,341,220
-6.2
14,045,845
* Aggrega te of Ba ja j, Hero, TVS Motor, Ma ruti , M&M, Ta ta Motors , As hok Leyl a nd & Ei che r Motors
YTDFY12
Chg (%)
11,236,509
-2.6
10,031,687
-2.2
580,353
-5.1
1,252,604
-7.1
399,732
36.0
631,115
1.4
342,419
24.3
288,696
-25.7
217,970
-5.2
14,318,283
-1.9
Source: Compa ny, MOSL
Comparative Valuation
CMP * Rating
P/E (x)
(INR)
FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Bajaj Auto
1,984 Buy
18.5
18.9
15.3
13.2
Hero MotoCorp
1,639 Buy
13.8
15.5
14.1
10.3
M&M
885
Buy
17.3
14.4
11.3
9.1
Maruti Suzuki
1,393 Buy
23.9
18.9
12.8
10.0
Tata Motors
290
Buy
7.7
10.0
7.9
6.8
As hok Leyl and
23
Buy
10.7
22.2
11.9
8.5
Ei cher Motors #
2,693 Buy
23.5
22.4
22.8
15.4
* Pri ce as on 1st March 2013. # Nos. are on CY bas is
FY12
13.7
8.9
12.1
13.1
4.7
6.9
17.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY13E FY14E FY15E
13.3
10.0
8.3
9.3
7.7
6.2
8.5
6.9
5.4
8.5
5.6
4.1
4.4
3.9
3.5
10.1
7.4
6.3
18.1
14.3
9.1
FY12
56.7
65.6
23.0
10.8
38.4
13.4
22.7
RoE (%)
FY13E FY14E FY15E
45.1
45.5
42.6
44.7
41.5
47.2
22.0
20.5
20.1
11.4
14.7
16.3
22.9
23.3
21.6
6.4
11.5
15.2
20.3
17.6
22.7
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Chirag Jain
(Chirag.Jain@MotilalOswal.com); + 91 22 3982 5418
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
1

Dashboard
Data Track
Sector overview and outlook
Weakness across segments; MHCV continues to witness sharp decline
Channel inventory filling supports 2W sales, sharp decline in MHCVs continues:
Retail demand is estimated to have declined on a YoY basis for two-wheeler and
passenger vehicle companies. Channel inventory filling over the last couple of
months have supported two-wheeler sales to an extent. M&HCVs sales continue
to remain under pressure due to weak economic activity. Our channel interaction
suggest that Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland have implemented a price hike and
meaningful reduction in discounts in 4QFY13. While growth in LCVs remained
healthy, signs of moderation are now visible. Tractor sales have declined on a
lower base (production cut last year). Expected softening in interest rates and
reform driven improvement in macro environment and consumer sentiment,
coupled with long term drivers remaining intact are key drivers for volumes over
next few years.
Margins to improve QoQ on higher volumes, better mix, favorable Fx and stable
RM cost:
EBITDA margins for our auto coverage universe is expected to improve
on higher volumes, better mix (BJAUT, Hero, MSIL, M&M), favourable Fx
(depreciating JPY against USD - Hero, MSIL) together with stable RM cost. However,
demand slowdown and higher competitive intensity would impact the
performance of CV companies (TTMT S/A, ALL). Eicher Motor’s CV performance,
however, is expected to improve with higher QoQ volumes. Moreover, its
consolidated performance will benefit from robust Royal Enfield operations.
Easing of macro headwinds to be key catalyst for demand recovery:
Over the last
few months, lending rates by major auto financiers have been reduced. This augurs
well for the auto industry, particularly for PV and CV demand. Moreover, with
expected monetary easing by RBI, economic activity and consumer sentiments
are expected to improve. Price increases and softening in commodity prices would
be an added advantage for auto companies’ profitability. Thus, easing macro
headwinds would be the key driver of volume growth, profitability and in-turn
for re-rating.
Valuation and view:
Changing competitive landscape in the auto sector would be
one of the key determinants of stock performance. While we believe that worst
of competitive pressure is behind for passenger cars, increasing competitive
intensity for both 2W, UVs and CVs pose challenge to incumbent OEMs. We prefer
Tata Motors
and
Maruti Suzuki.
Within mid-caps, we like
Eicher Motors
and
Ashok
Leyland.
Key Financial Indicators
Volume Chg (%) ^
EBITDA Margins (%)
EPS (INR) *
EPS Growth (%) *
FY13E FY14E FY15E
FY13E FY14E FY15E
FY13E FY14E FY15E
FY13E FY14E FY15E
Ba jaj Auto
-1.0
13.5
14.4
18.4
19.7
19.5
104.7
129.8
149.8
-2.5
23.9
15.5
Hero MotoCorp
-0.7
13.4
13.2
9.5
10.4
12.6
105.4
115.9
159.5
-11.5
10.0
37.6
M&M
24.2
10.2
10.6
13.5
14.0
14.1
61.4
78.2
97.5
19.9
27.3
24.7
Maruti Suzuki
4.1
13.5
13.9
9.3
11.5
12.2
73.6
108.7
139.4
26.5
47.6
28.3
Tata Motors *
-11.0
11.9
14.0
13.6
14.1
14.1
29.1
36.8
42.4
-23.0
26.6
15.0
As hok Leyl and
12.3
21.8
16.2
8.5
10.2
10.2
1.0
1.9
2.7
-51.9
86.3
40.9
Ei che r Motors #
-
-
-
8.6
8.1
9.4
120.2
118.1
174.8
5.0
-1.7
48.0
^ Vol ume growth for s ta ndal one ; * Cons ol i da te d where ve r a ppl i ca bl e , ** Royal ty a djus ted ma rgi ns , # Nos . a re on CY ba s i s .
March 2013
2

Dashboard
Data Track
Hero MotoCorp
Feb-13 volumes below est at 501,271 (-4% YoY, -10% MoM)
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Feb-13
Total volume
Feb-12
YoY
(%)
-4.2
Jan-13
557,797
MoM
YTDFY13 Chg (%)
(%)
-10.1 5,607,300
Residual FY13 YTD
Residual
FY13E
YoY (%)
Monthly Monthly
Gr. (%)
Run rate Run rate
-1.7 6,193,232
-0.7
10.9 585,932 509,755
Source: Compa ny, MOSL
501,271 523,465
Highlights
We estimate domestic
retails at 460,000 with
channel inventory for
Hero Moto at 650-675,000
(5-6 weeks)
Retail sales in the 2W industry is estimated to have decline by 5-6% YoY in Feb-13.
Northern region, the primary growth driver during Apr-Dec 2012 period with 5-7%
growth, has started witnessing demand pressures since January 2013 led by delayed
cash receipt on sugarcane harvest and prolonged winter.
Weak retail demand led to inventory build-up with dealers. We estimate domestic
retails at 460,000 with channel inventory for Hero Moto at 650-675,000 (5-6 weeks).
On release of the monthly sales, Senior Vice President (Marketing and Sales) Anil
Dua said
“Selling over 500,000 units despite the overall sluggishness in the market is
an encouraging sign of customer preference and sustained demand for our products
in the market. However, overall sentiment in the industry still remains weak. The
industry did stage some recovery during the festival period but does not seem to
have sustained the momentum. High interest rates, persistent inflation and delayed
monsoon have all played their part in building to a rather poor consumer sentiment
this fiscal,”.
We model 1% volume de-growth in FY13 to 6.2m. Our March volume estimate
would see marginal downgrade due to weak consumer sentiment and high channel
inventory.
The stock trades at 14.2x FY14E EPS of INR115.9 and 10.3x FY15 of INR159.5.
Buy.
Hero MotoCorp: two-wheelers
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
625,000
560,000
495,000
430,000
365,000
300,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Hero MotoCorp: Financial & Valuation Summary
Bloomberg
HMCL IN
Year Net Sales
Equity Shares (m)
200
End (INR m)
CMP (INR)
1,639
3/12A 233,681
52-Wk Range (INR) 2,279/1,616
3/13E 239,350
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) -5/-17/-23
3/14E 276,760
M.Cap. (USD b)
6.0
3/15E 318,703
March 2013
PAT
(INR m)
23,781
21,050
23,155
31,855
EPS
(INR)
119.1
105.4
115.9
159.5
EPS
Gr. (%)
18.4
-11.5
10.0
37.6
P/E
(X)
13.8
15.5
14.1
10.3
P/CE
(X)
12.4
13.6
12.3
8.6
P/BV
(X)
7.6
6.4
5.4
4.4
EV/
EBITDA
8.9
9.3
7.7
6.2
RoE
(%)
65.6
44.7
41.5
47.2
RoCE
(%)
49.9
40.2
48.6
60.5
3

Dashboard
Data Track
Bajaj Auto
Feb-13 volumes below est at 332,387 (-3% YoY, -4% MoM, v/s est 345,000);
Exports ahead of estimates
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Feb-13
Total volume
Motorcycles
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
332,387
291,297
41,090
197,238
135,149
Feb-12
343,777
301,961
41,816
221,050
122,727
YoY
(%)
Jan-13
MoM
YTDFY13 Chg (%)
(%)
-4.4
-3.3
-11.2
-10.0
5.2
3,935,931
3,490,068
445,863
2,490,148
1,445,783
-1.9
-1.2
-7.2
-2.0
-1.8
FY13E
4,305,046
3,821,571
483,475
2,775,170
1,529,876
Residual FY13 YTD
Residual
YoY (%)
Monthly Monthly
Gr. (%)
Run rate Run rate
-1.0
10.0 369,115 357,812
-0.3
10.2 331,503 317,279
-6.1
8.5 37,612
40,533
0.2
25.1 285,022 226,377
-3.2
-21.9 84,093 131,435
Source: Company, MOSL
-3.3 347,624
-3.5 301,361
-1.7 46,263
-10.8 219,142
10.1 128,482
Highlights
Channel inventory is
expected to be 35-40
days. Management
indicated that overall
demand scenario remains
weak and expect growth
to be flattish over next
few months
Bajaj Auto’s Feb-13 total volumes declined by 3% (-4% MoM) to 332,387 (v/s est of
345,000). Based on our FY13 estimate of 1% de-growth, implied Mar-13 volume is
~369,115 (~10% growth).
Domestic volume de-grew 11% YoY (-10% MoM) to 197,238 (v/s est of 222,000),
whereas exports grew 10% YoY (+5% MoM) to 135,149 (v/s est 123,000).
Overall motorcycle volumes declined 3.5% YoY (-3% MoM) to 291,297 (v/s est
300,000). Domestic 2W volumes are estimated to remain sluggish due to weak
demand environment. Based on volumes of top-4 players, Bajaj has lost market
share of 50bp YoY (+70bp MoM) in domestic 2Ws.
Channel inventory is expected to be 35-40 days. Management indicated that overall
demand scenario remains weak and expect growth to be flattish over next few
months.
Three-wheeler sales for Feb-13 de-grew 2% YoY (-11% MoM) to 41,090 (v/s est
45,000).
For Bajaj, we factor in volume growth of 14% in motorcycles in FY14 (+12% domestic,
+18% exports) and ~10% in 3Ws (+7% domestic, +12% in exports).
The stock trades at 15.6x FY14E EPS of INR129.8 and 13.5x FY15E EPS of INR150.
Maintain
Buy.
Bajaj Auto: Financial & Valuation Summary
Bl oomberg
BJAUT IN
Equi ty Shares (m)
289.4
CMP (INR)
1,984
52-Wk Range (INR) 2,229/1,423
1,6,12 Rel.Perf.(%)
1/12/7
M.Cap. (USD b)
10.5
Year Net Sales
End (INR m)
3/12A 195,290
3/13E 202,891
3/14E 239,146
3/15E 276,168
PAT
(INR m)
31,069
30,299
37,548
43,357
EPS
(INR)
107.4
104.7
129.8
149.8
EPS
Gr. (%)
18.8
-2.5
23.9
15.5
P/E
(X)
18.5
18.9
15.3
13.2
P/CE
(X)
17.6
18.0
14.6
12.7
P/BV
(X)
9.5
7.8
6.3
5.1
EV/
EBITDA
13.7
13.3
10.0
8.3
RoE
(%)
56.7
45.1
45.5
42.6
RoCE
(%)
73.0
62.4
63.6
58.0
March 2013
4

Dashboard
Two-wheeler volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
440,000
Discover and Pulsar
contribute ~70% to
two-wheeler volumes
375,000
310,000
245,000
180,000
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Three-wheeler volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
52,000
45,000
Market share gains
in the diesel three-
wheelers and permit
issuance drives three-
wheeler sales
38,000
31,000
24,000
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Export volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
200,000
160,000
Exports are recovering in
the last few months
120,000
80,000
40,000
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Market mix
Domestic
Exports
100%
75%
Growth driven by export
market in February 2013
50%
25%
0%
Source: Company, MOSL
March 2013
5

Dashboard
Data Track
Maruti Suzuki
Below estimates; retail de-growth ~6% MoM & inventory at ~4 weeks
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Feb-13
Total volume
Domestic
A1
C
A2
A3
A4
UV
Export
Feb-12
YoY
(%)
-7.9
-9.0
-23.6
-38.9
-14.9
8.4
NA
NA
2.8
Jan-13
114,205
103,026
1,635
8,374
68,850
18,072
0
6,095
11,179
MoM
YTDFY13 Chg (%)
(%)
-4.1 1,051,500
-4.9 943,159
2.8
15,697
-2.9 101,011
-7.5 598,262
2.5 155,297
NA
188
-2.3
72,704
3.9 108,341
Residual FY13 YTD
Residual
FY13E
YoY (%)
Monthly Monthly
Gr. (%)
Run rate Run rate
4.3 1,179,732
4.1
1.8 128,232
95,591
5.5 1,057,877
5.1
1.8 114,718
85,742
-25.2
-23.3
-4.3
41.0
NA
NA
-5.1 121,855
-4.3
2.2 13,514
9,849
Source: Company, MOSL
109,567 118,949
97,955 107,653
1,680
2,200
8,133 13,305
63,652 74,803
18,531 17,101
2
14
5,957
230
11,612 11,296
Highlights
Retails are estimated to
de-grow by ~6% MoM
impacted by 2-day pan-
India strike called by
trade unions and lack of
pre-budget buying
(unlike last year)
Maruti’s Jan-13 volumes de-grew by 8% YoY (-4% MoM) to 109,567 (v/s est 114,460
units) impacted by 2-day strike called by trade-unions and no pre-budget buying.
While domestic volumes de-grew 9% YoY (-5% MoM), exports grew by 3% YoY
(+4% MoM). Based on our FY13 estimate, implied residual run-rate is 128232 units
and 2% residual growth.
Domestic volumes at 97,955 units (v/s est 102,460) was driven by strong growth
volumes in A3 segment (+8% YoY/2.5% QoQ). However, mini (-16% YoY) and compact
(-14% YoY) segment continues to be under pressure. The company sold ~20,000
units of Swift during Jan-13 (flat YoY), whereas Ertiga’s volumes would be ~5,400
units (flat MoM, but moderating from peak of ~7,000 units).
Retails are estimated to de-grow by ~6% MoM impacted by 2-day pan-India strike
called by trade unions and lack of pre-budget buying (unlike last year). Inventory
is at ~4 weeksin anticipation of seasonal pick-up in March.
We expect MSIL to register volume growth of 4% in FY13 and 13.5% in FY14. EBITDA
margin for FY13/FY14 would be 9.3%/11.5%. Our estimates would see small
downgrade of ~1.5% for FY13/14/15 to factor in for weak retails. The stock trades at
12.5x FY15E consolidated EPS of INR139 and 6.1x FY15E cash EPS of INR222. Maintain
Buy.
Maruti Suzuki: Financial & Valuation Summary
Bloomberg
MSIL IN
Equity Shares (m)
302.1
CMP (INR)
1,393
52-Wk Range (INR) 1,638/1,052
1,6,12 Rel.Perf.(%)
-9/11/-1
M.Cap. (USD b)
7.7
March 2013
Year
End
3/12A
3/13E
3/14E
3/15E
Total Inc.
(INR m)
355,871
433,649
500,583
578,724
PAT Con. EPS EPS Con. P/E
(INR m) (INR) Gr. (%)
(x)
16,351
58.2
-29.4
-
21,931
73.6
26.5
18.9
32,418 108.7
47.6
12.8
42,112 139.4
28.3
10.0
P/CE
(x)
-
10.3
7.6
6.3
P/BV
(X)
-
2.2
1.9
1.6
EV/
EBITDA
-
8.5
5.6
4.1
RoE
(%)
10.8
11.4
14.7
16.3
RoCE
(%)
13.2
13.9
18.5
20.2
6

Dashboard
Monthly volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
140,000
115,000
Inventory is at ~4
weeksin anticipation of
seasonal pick-up in March
90,000
65,000
40,000
Apr
May
Ju n
Jul
Au g
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Export volumes (units)
F Y11
FY1
2
FY1
3
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Ma r
Exports rose by 4%
Segment mix (domestic)
A1
A2
A3 + A4
M PVs +UVs
100%
75%
A2 & A3 segments
dominate the
segment mix; UVs
contribution rising
50%
25%
0%
Market mix
Domestic Sales
Export s
100%
75%
Export contribution to
volumes fell
to ~11% in FY12 from
14.5% in FY10
50%
25%
0%
Sour ce: Compan y, MOSL
March 2013
7

Dashboard
Data Track
Mahindra & Mahindra
M&M: In-line; growth moderating in both passenger and pick-ups; tractor
volumes continues to disappoint
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Feb-13
Total volume
UV (i ncl. pick-ups )
LCV (MNAL)
Verito
Three-Wheelers
Tractors
62,685
40,663
1,008
1,350
4,803
14,861
Feb-12
58,403
35,089
1,255
1,632
5,111
15,316
YoY
(%)
7.3
15.9
-19.7
-17.3
-6.0
-3.0
Jan-13
66,976
41,168
1,024
1,500
5,811
17,473
MoM
YTDFY13 Chg (%)
(%)
-6.4
-1.2
-1.6
-10.0
-17.3
-14.9
718,023
425,774
10,567
14,451
60,679
206,552
9.8
23.2
-14.1
-10.1
-2.7
-5.2
FY13E
788,850
468,823
11,888
16,590
66,766
224,783
Residual FY13 YTD
Residual
YoY (%)
Monthly Monthly
Gr. (%)
Run rate Run rate
9.8
9.7 70,827
65,275
22.0
11.0 43,049
38,707
-14.0
-13.0
1,321
961
-7.0
21.3
2,139
1,314
-1.0
19.6
6,087
5,516
-4.5
4.7 18,231
18,777
Source: Company, MOSL
Highlights
Ssangyong Motors (SYMC)
reported 11.5% YoY
volume growth to 9,884
units in Feb-13.
M&M’s Feb-13 Auto volumes grew 11% YoY (-3% MoM) to 47,824 units (v/s est
~47,850 units).
UV (incl. pick-ups) volumes grew 16% YoY (-1% MoM) to 40,663 (v/s est 40,000).
Passenger UV segment grew by 16% (32% YTD) while pick-ups grew 12% YoY (14%
YTD). We model 22% YoY growth in UVs (incl. pick-ups) in FY13 to 468,823, implying
residual run-rate of 43,049 (11% residual growth).
Passenger UV segment volumes could be impacted by increase in excise duty on
SUVs by 3% to 30% and gradual increase in diesel prices.
3-wheeler volumes declined by 6% YoY (-17% MoM) to 4,803 (v/s est 5,811). We
model 7% volume de-growth in FY13, implying residual run rate of 8,784.
Tractor volumes de-grew 3% YoY (-15% MoM) to 14,861 units (v/s est 16,000 units).
We model in 4.5% de-growth in tractor volumes, implying residual run-rate of
18,231 units (5% growth).
Our estimates will small downgrade of ~1.5% due to weakness in tractors and 3W
volumes. The stock trades at 13.5x/11.7x Consolidated FY14/FY15 EPS of INR78/98
respectively. Maintain
Buy.
Mahindra and Mahindra: Financial & Valuation Summary
Bl oomberg
Equi ty Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel.Perf.(%)
M.Cap. (USD b)
MM IN
587.2
885
975/622
4/8/24
9.7
Year Net Sales S/A PAT * S/A EPS * Cons. Con. EPS
End (INR m) (INR m)
(INR) EPS (INR) Gr (%)
3/12A 318,535 28,888
48.3
51.2
6.6
3/13E 404,360 34,810
58.2
61.4
19.9
3/14E 457,502 38,607
64.5
78.2
27.3
3/15E 518,718 44,596
74.5
97.5
24.7
* S/A i ncl udi ng MVML
P/E Cons.
(x) P/E (x)
18.3 17.3
15.2 14.4
13.7 11.3
11.9 9.1
RoE
(%)
23.0
22.0
20.5
20.1
RoCE
EV/
EV/
(%) Sales (x) EBITDA
23.1
1.4
12.1
24.2
1.0
8.5
24.5
0.8
6.9
24.1
0.6
5.4
March 2013
8

Dashboard
Utility vehicle volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
48,000
39,000
30,000
21,000
12,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja n
Feb
Mar
UV volumes continue
to remain strong though
YoY growth moderating
Tractor volume (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
36,000
28,000
Tractor volumes declined
by 10% YoY
20,000
12,000
4,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Ma r
Product mix
UVs
Tracto rs
LCVs, 3-wheelers
Cars
100%
Tractors and UVs
dominate the segment
mix, but we expect the
share of three wheelers
and LCVs to increase
75%
50%
25%
0%
Source: Company, MOSL
March 2013
9

Dashboard
Data Track
Tata Motors
Below estimates due to sharp fall in PV volumes, pressure on MHCV continues,
growth in LCVs also moderates
Feb‐13
Feb‐12
92,119
20,481
36,138
28,833
6,667
5,415
YoY
(%)
‐32.7
-45.2
9.7
-71.7
-55.8
-26.2
Jan‐13
61,660
9,369
36,583
11,608
4,100
3,880
MoM
YTDFY13 Chg (%)
(%)
0.5
19.9
8.4
-29.6
-28.2
3.0
737,374
136,932
384,608
170,818
45,016
47,279
‐8.6
-30.9
18.4
-27.1
-8.5
-18.1
FY13E
821,462
150,822
427,591
191,602
51,447
Residual FY13 YTD
Residual
YoY (%)
Monthly Monthly
Gr. (%)
Run rate Run rate
‐9.4
‐16.3
84,088
67,034
-31.8
-39.8 13,890
12,448
17.5
10.1 42,983
34,964
-27.8
-33.1 20,784
15,529
-8.9
-11.2
6,431
4,092
Source: Company, MOSL
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Total volume
HCV's
LCV's
Ca rs
UV's
of which e xports
61,998
11,229
39,656
8,169
2,944
3,996
Highlights
Our channel interaction
indicates that Tata
Motors have
implemented a price
hike of 1-1.5% effective
Jan-13 along with
reduction in discounts by
30-35%
Total Feb-13 volumes declined by 33% YoY (+0.5% MoM) to 61,998 units (v/s est
68,500) with disappointment largely in PV segment.
We expect 9.4% de-growth in overall FY13 volumes, implying residual run-rate of
84,088 units (~16% residual de-growth).
MHCV volume continues to be under pressure with decline of 45% YoY (+20%
MoM) to 11,229 units (v/s est 11,000 units) as weak economic growth continues to
impact freight availability and transporters profitability. Our channel interaction
indicates that Tata Motors have implemented a price hike of 1-1.5% effective Jan-
13 along with reduction in discounts by 30-35%.
LCVs sales at 39,656 units (v/s est 40,000) grew 9.7% YoY (+8.4% MoM). LCV volume
momentum has been moderating due to delayed impact of weak economic growth.
Our FY13 estimates factor in CV volume growth of -1.1% with M&HCV volume
decline of 32% and LCVs growth of 17.5%.
Passenger cars de-grew by 71.7% YoY (-30% MoM) to 8,169 (v/s est 13,000) as it
continues to struggle due to weak brand perception and higher competitive
intensity. Under new management team, the company is making efforts to improve
its positioning in passenger car business. We model a drop of 28% in passenger
cars volumes in FY13.
UV volumes declined by 56% YoY (-28% MoM) at 2,944 (v/s est 4,100). Our FY13
estimate assumes volume de-growth of 8.9%.
The stock trades at 7.8x FY14E consolidated EPS and 6.8x FY15E consolidated EPS.
Maintain
Buy.
Blo omb erg
Actual Eq. Sh (m)
CMP (INR)
52-Wk Ran ge (INR)
1,6,12 Rel . Perf. (%)
M.Cap . (USD b)
TTMT IN
3,173.8
297
321/138
14/16/48
17.8
Tata Motors: Financial & Valuation Summary
Year
Sales
Adj. PAT Adj. EPS
Norm.
P/E Norm. RoE RoCE
EV/
EV/
End * (INR m) (INR m)
(INR) EPS (INR) ^ Ratio P/E (x) (%) (%) Sales (x) EBITDA (x)
3/12A 1,656,545 125,568
37.8
22.2
7.5
12.8 38.4 24.1
0.7
4.7
3/13E 1,879,935 95,103
28.6
9.6
10.0
29.6 22.5 22.6
0.6
4.5
3/14E 2,112,354 122,880
37.0
16.7
7.7
17.1
3/15E 2,364,564 135,380
40.7
18.2
7.0
15.7
* Cons ol i date d;
^ Norma l i ze d for capi tal i zed e xpens es
23.4 23.2
20.9 22.6
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.4
March 2013
10

Dashboard
M&HCV volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
28,000
M&HCV volumes
continue to disappoint
22,000
16,000
10,000
4,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja n
Feb
Ma r
LCV volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
48,000
40,000
LCV volumes
remains robust
32,000
24,000
16,000
8,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja n
Feb
Ma r
Car volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
35,000
29,000
Domestic car volumes
de-grew 72% YoY
23,000
17,000
11,000
5,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja n
Feb
Mar
Product mix in the CV segment
M &HCVs
LCVs
100%
75%
LCVs account for over 70%
of the CV product
portfolio
50%
25%
0%
Source: Company, MOSL
March 2013
11

Dashboard
Data Track
Ashok Leyland
Above estimates driven by higher MHCV sales, LCV (Dost) though disappoints
marginally
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Feb-13
Total volume
CV (ex DOST SCV)
DOST
10,046
7,045
3,001
Feb-12
11,103
9,521
1,582
YoY
(%)
-9.5
-26.0
89.7
Jan-13
10,561
6,863
3,698
MoM
YTDFY13 Chg (%)
(%)
-4.9
2.7
-18.8
100,798
70,241
30,597
14.9
-14.7
468.5
FY13E
113,412
78,712
34,700
Residual FY13 YTD
Residual
YoY (%)
Monthly Monthly
Gr. (%)
Run rate Run rate
11.2
-11.6 12,614
9,163
-14.7
-14.9
8,471
6,386
NA
4,103
2,782
Source: Company, MOSL
Highlights
Ashok Leyland volumes
have been relatively
better than Tata Motor's
in last few quarters,
driven by higher
exposure to buses
Ashok Leyland Feb-13 volumes declined by 9.5% YoY (-4.9% MoM) to 10,046 (v/s
est 9,800 units).
MHCVs registered a decline of 26% YoY (+2.7% MoM) to 7,045 units (v/s est 6,500
units) as weak economic growth impact freight availability and transporters
profitability. We estimate 15% de-growth in M&HCV volumes in FY13, implying
residual run-rate of 8,471 units (15% residual de-growth). Ashok Leyland sales
have been better than Tata Motors over the last few months due to higher
contribution of buses (~30% of MHCV volumes for ALL). Bus industry volumes
have been flat on a YoY basis as against sharp fall in MHCV trucks in FY13.
Dost (LCV) sales at 3,001 units (v/s est 3,300 units), a decline of 19% MoM. We
estimate DOST volumes of 34,700 units, implying residual run-rate of ~4,103 units.
With expected improvement in macro-economic environment, we expect MHCV
industry to recover in FY14. AL, being pure play and second largest CV player in
India, is the best bet to play expected improvement in CV cycle.
The stock trades at 22.7x/12.2x/8.6x FY13E/FY14E/FY15E earnings of INR1.0/1.9/2.7
respectively. Maintain
Buy.
Bl oomberg
Equi ty Shares (m)
52-Week Range
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
AL IN
2660.68
33/20
-4/-1/-29
60
1.1
Ashok Leyland: Financial & Valuation Summary
Year Net Sales PAT
EPS
EPS
P/E
End (INR m) (INR m) (INR) Gr. (%)
(x)
3/11A 111,771 6,313
2.4
49.0
9.6
3/12A 128,420 5,660
2.1
-10.3
10.7
3/13E 123,246 2,722
1.0
-51.9
22.2
3/14E 145,922 5,072
1.9
86.3
11.9
3/15E 172,092 7,147
2.7
40.9
8.5
P/BV
(x)
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
RoE
(%)
15.9
13.4
6.4
11.5
15.2
RoCE
(%)
14.8
12.5
8.1
10.9
13.2
EV/
EV/
Sales (x) EBITDA (x)
0.4
4.0
0.7
6.9
0.9
10.1
0.8
7.4
0.6
6.3
March 2013
12

Dashboard
Data Track
Eicher Motors
Below estimates due to weak LMD sales, fall in HCV sales much lower than
peers, buses continue to grow
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Feb‐13
Royal Enfie ld
VECV
11,151
3,690
2,361
559
618
3,538
Feb‐12
7,791
4,436
2,994
YoY (%) January MoM
chg
13
(%) chg
43.1
-16.8
-21.1
7,080
3,795
2,458
57.5
-2.8
-3.9
CY13
22,597
7,426
4,819
1,233
1,124
7,176
CY13
Residual Residual
YTD (%)
CY13 YoY (%)
YTD
Growth Monthly
chg estimate
chg
Monthly
(%) Run rate
Run rate
52.0 150,759
-8.8
54,805
-14.0
32,419
32.9
13.6
9.7
30.0
18.1
15.3
12,816 11,299
4,738 3,713
2,760 2,410
Domes ti c LMD
Domes ti c HD
Domes ti c Bus e s
Total Domestic
Exports
152
594
598
4,186
250
-5.9
3.3
‐15.5
-39.2
674
-17.1
506
22.1
3,638
‐2.7
157.0 -3.1847
250
5.1
16.7
‐7.3
-38.6
9,772
10,042
52,233
2,572
26.9
17.9
14.1
2.8
30.8
854
617
18.0
892
562
18.5
4,506 3,588
10.9
232
125
Source: Compa ny, MOSL
Highlights
Royal Enfield continues
to enjoy average waiting
period of 6-8 months
across products.
Eicher Motor’s Feb-13 CV volumes declined 17% YoY (-3% MoM) to 3,690 units (v/
s est 4,050 units). The disappointment was led by decline in light & medium (LMD)
segment.
LMD segment declined by 21% YoY (-4% MoM) to 2,361 units. For CY13, Eicher’s
LMD segment is expected to grow 9.7%.
HD volumes declined by 6% YoY (-17% MoM) to 559 units. The decline has been
lower than peers as it continues to expand its geographical reach and offers higher
discount – Tata Motors domestic MHCV volumes declined by 45% YoY. For domestic
HD segment, we estimate 27% growth in CY13 for Eicher.
Bus volumes have improved by 3.3% YoY (+22% MoM) to 618 units. For CY13, Eicher
buses are expected to growth by 18%.
CY13 would witness the benefit in volumes from the start of bus body plant (in
1QFY13), commencement of medium duty engine project (3QCY13) and launch of
the new HD range in 4QCY13 (jointly developed by Eicher-Volvo).
Royal Enfield volumes have grown by 43.1% to 11,151 units. We estimate 150,759
units in CY13 led by the commissioning of the new plant.
The stock trades at 22.8x/15.4x/11.4x CY13E/CY14E/CY15E EPS of INR 118/175/236.
Maintain
Buy.
Eicher Motors: Financial & Valuation Summary
Bl oomberg
EIM IN
Equi ty Sha res (m)
27.0
52-Wk Ra nge (INR) 3,240/1,620
1,6,12 Rel . Pe rf. (%)
3/26/56
M.Cap. (INR b)
72.7
M.Cap. (USD b)
1.3
Year
End
12/11A
12/12E
12/13E
12/14E
12/15E
Net Sales Adj. PAT Consol. EPS Con. EPS
(INR m) (INR m)
(INR)
Gr (%)
57.3
3.1
114.4
63.1
64.4
3.2
117.8
3.0
81.8
3.3
121.6
3.2
107.1
4.8
176.1
44.8
132.8
6.4
236.6
34.4
P/E
(x)
25.0
24.2
23.5
16.2
12.1
EV/
EV/
EBITDA Sales (x)
18.3
1.9
17.6
1.7
14.6
1.3
9.5
1.0
6.6
0.7
RoE
(%)
22.7
19.6
17.7
22.2
25.2
RoCE
(%)
29.8
23.2
20.9
26.7
30.6
March 2013
13

Dashboard
Data Track
TVS Motor
Volumes de-grew 5% YoY driven by 17% fall in scooter volumes
Snapshot of volumes for February 2013
Feb-13
Total volume
Motorcycl es
Scooters
Mopeds
165,696
60,985
30,611
69,299
Feb-12
175,126
63,019
36,693
72,349
YoY
(%)
-5.4
-3.2
-16.6
-4.2
Jan-13
175,931
64,555
37,946
69,012
MoM
YTDFY13
(%)
-5.8
-5.5
-19.3
0.4
YTDFY12
Chg
(%)
1,865,282 2,018,680 -7.6
688,165
776,344 -11.4
412,373
489,700 -15.8
720,631
715,122
0.8
Source: Compa ny, MOSL
Motorcyle volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
98,000
Recently launched
Pheonix 125cc is
estimated to have
clocked ~10k units in
Feb-13
86,000
74,000
62,000
50,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja n
Feb
Ma r
Scooters and mopeds (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
132,000
114,000
96,000
78,000
60,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja n
Feb
Mar
Scooter volume
declines by 17% YoY
Sales mix
M o to rcycles
Sco o ters & M o peds
100%
Scooters and
mopeds have been the
key volume driver over
the last few quarters
75%
50%
25%
0%
Source: Company, MOSL
March 2013
14

Dashboard
March 2013
15

Dashboard
March 2013
16

Dashboard
Special Report
Two-wheeler dealer survey: Demand weakens further,
channel inventory rises again
OEMs offer higher credit limit to dealers, finance schemes to customers to
spur demand
North region, the primary growth driver during Apr-Dec 2012 period with 5-7% growth, is
now witnessing demand pressures since January 2013 and expected to register a double
digit fall in February 2013 YoY.
Weak retail demand have led to inventory build-up with dealers . We estimate average
inventory of ~5-6 weeks with Hero, Bajaj and TVS dealers. While overall inventory with HMSI
dealers is lower, inventory for Dream Yuga is ~4-5 weeks.
Competition is set to increase further but dealers more concerned on industry slowdown
We surveyed over 130 two-wheeler dealers across regions and major players and
other industry participants. Following are the key takeaways:
Since mid-December 2012 demand has weakened, aggravates further in February
2013:
Our survey indicates continued weakness in retail demand for February
2013, with 52% of dealers (60% of Hero, 68% of TVS) indicating lower MoM sales.
HMSI dealers though expect February sales to be higher MoM led by recent launch
of upgraded scooter variants offering higher mileage and higher promotional
spends by the company.
Dealers expect sales to improve MoM in March, but to decline YoY:
56% of dealers
expect sales in March to fall YoY. Decline is expected across major players; HMSI
being the only exception. However, on a MoM basis, 40% of dealers expect March
to be better than February 2013 (due to seasonality).
Majority of dealers indicated decline in sales during Apr-Jan 2013 period; TVS
worst impacted with 77% dealers reporting decline:
HMSI dealers (about 55%)
reported higher sales driven by capacity expansion (commissioning of second
plant at Rajasthan) and new launch (Dream
Yuga,
an executive 110cc motorcycle).
Post festive season, channel inventory have increased on weak demand:
53% of
the dealers reported an increase in inventory post festive season. Increase in
inventory has been higher for Bajaj dealers followed by Hero.
Channel inventory at ~6 weeks for Hero, Bajaj and TVS:
Over 2/3rd of the dealers
we surveyed indicated inventory of 4 weeks or higher, with 19% of them having
over 6 weeks of inventory. HMSI dealers though are relatively better placed, with
62% of them reporting less than 4 weeks inventory.
OEMs supporting dealers with higher credit limit; offering attractive finance
schemes:
Around 44% of dealers reported higher credit limit support provided by
OEMs to support higher inventory. Moreover, OEMs are offering discounts/freebies
(38% of dealers reported) largely in the form of concessional interest rates through
tie-ups with various finance companies/captive financing arm.
Competition to increase but dealers more concerned on industry slowdown:
Competition to increase as HMSI plans to launch another motorcycle under the
Dream
series and to start the third plant in 1QFY14. However, 77% of dealers are
more concerned about industry slowdown rather than higher competition.
March 2013
17

Dashboard
Also refer our Report dated
25 February 2013
Valuation & view: Expect demand recovery in FY14
We expect two-wheeler volumes to recover in FY14 on better macro-economic
enviornment, though over the near term expected to remain under weak.
For Bajaj, we expect 13% volume CAGR in domestic motorcycles over FY13-15E
with new launches and industry recovery. This coupled with improvement in export
volumes and 3Ws to drive 14.6% overall CAGR. Volume growth and favorable
currency will drive 19.6% earnings CAGR over FY13E-15E.
Despite factoring further market share loss, expect Hero to report 11% domestic
volume CAGR over FY13-15E. Expect export volumes to ramp-up to 0.5m units by
FY15 (v/s 187k units in FY12). Overall, we expect Hero to report 13.3% volume
CAGR over FY13-15E. Expiry of royalty payments on existing products post June
2014 would drive strong operating performance with a EPS CAGR of 22% over
FY13-15E. Within two-wheeler space, we prefer Hero over Bajaj on valuation.
Financials and Valuations
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
P/E (x)
P/CEPS (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
RoE (%)
FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E
Bajaj Auto
Hero Honda
104.7 132.4 149.8 -2.5
105.4 117.8 159.5 -11.5
26.4
11.7
13.2
35.5
19.0
15.9
15.1
14.3
13.3
10.5
18.1
14.0
14.4
12.4
12.8
8.8
13.3
9.6
10.1
7.9
8.4 45.2 46.3 42.3
6.4 44.8 42.1 47.0
Source: Company, MOSL
March 2013
18

Dashboard
Sector Gauge
Two-wheelers: Volume snapshot
Total Domestic 2W
% of Total 2W
Total Motorcycle
% of Domestic 2W
Scooters & Mopeds
% of Domestic 2W
Exports
% of Total 2W
Total 2W
Two-wheelers
Domestic volumes moderate
Mar-12
FY12 Chg (%)
13,404,088
14.2
87
10,067,946
11.7
75
3,336,142
22.4
25
1,972,210
28.8
13
15,376,298
15.9
Source: SIAM/MOSL
Jan-13
1,199,274
89
886,501
74
312,773
26
153,699
11
1,352,973
Jan-12
1,114,429
88
826,485
74
287,944
26
150,951
12
1,265,380
YoY (%)
7.6
7.3
8.6
1.8
6.9
Dec-12
1,129,140
87
844,000
75
285,140
25
173,035
13
1,302,175
MoM (%)
6.2
5.0
9.7
-11.2
3.9
YTD FY13
11,567,866
88
8,504,520
74
3,063,346
26
1,638,119
12
13,205,985
Chg (%)
4.4
1.5
13.6
-2.3
3.6
Two-wheelers: Domestic volume trend (units)
FY11
FY12
FY13
1,400,000
Domestic two-wheeler
growth driven by higher
channel inventory
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
Domestic market share in 2-wheelers
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
HMSI
Yamaha
TVS Motor
100%
Increasing competition in
2-wheeler segment,
with HMSI consistently
gaining market share
75%
50%
25%
0%
March 2013
19

Dashboard
Motorcycles: domestic volume trend
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
1,000,000
Motorcycles volumes
recovered driven by
higher channel inventory
800,000
600,000
400,000
Motorcycles: domestic market share
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
HMSI
Yamaha
TVS Motor
Hero MotoCrop
continues to dominate
motorcycle segment,
although HMSI's
increasing its
market share
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Two-wheelers: Product mix
Motorcycle
Scooters & Mopeds
100%
75%
Motorcycles dominate
2W segment, though
share of scooters rising
rapidly
50%
25%
0%
Two-wheelers: export volumes (units)
FY11
FY12
FY13
200,000
175,000
150,000
125,000
100,000
Export volumes
continues to remain
under pressure
March 2013
20

Dashboard
Sector Gauge
Three-wheelers: Volume snapshot
Total Domestic 3W
% of Tota l 3W
Passenger
% of Domes ti c eW
Total Goods
% of Domes ti c 3W
<1T
% of Goods Vehi cl e
>1T
% of Goods Vehi cl e
Exports
% of Tota l 3W
Total 3W
Three-wheelers
Demand remains weak
Jan-13
48,519
64
40,151
83
8,368
17
8,124
97
244
3
27,542
36
76,061
Jan-12
45,633
63
36,502
80
9,131
20
7,125
78
2,006
22
27,270
37
72,903
YoY (%)
6.3
10.0
-8.4
14.0
-87.8
1.0
4.3
Dec-12
44,718
60
37,042
83
7,676
17
7,496
98
180
2
29,877
40
74,595
MoM (%)
8.5
8.4
9.0
8.4
35.6
-7.8
2.0
YTD FY13
450,645
64
370,868
82
79,777
18
77,441
97
2,336
3
253,216
36
703,861
Chg (%)
5.1
9.1
-10.1
3.2
-82.9
-19.0
-5.0
Mar-12
FY12
Chg (%)
513,282
-2.4
59
406,258
-4.5
79
107,024
6.3
21
89,292
12.8
83
17,732
-17.5
17
361,753
34.0
41
875,035
9.9
Source: SIAM/MOSL
Three-wheelers: volume trend (including exports)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
92,000
80,000
3W volumes grows by 4%
YoY in Jan-13
68,000
56,000
44,000
32,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se p
Oct
Nov
De c
Ja n
Fe b
Ma r
Three-wheelers: domestic segment mix
Passenger
Goods
100%
75%
Passenger segment
dominates three-
wheelers with over 80%
contribution
50%
25%
0%
March 2013
21

Dashboard
Three wheelers: passenger segment market share
Bajaj Auto
Piaggio
M&M
TVS
Others
100%
Bajaj Auto continues to
dominate passenger
segment…
75%
50%
25%
0%
Three wheelers: goods segment market share
Bajaj Auto
Piaggio
M&M
Others
100%
... Piaggio continues to
lead in the goods
segment
75%
50%
25%
0%
March 2013
22

Dashboard
Sector Gauge
Cars and UVs
Passenger cars remain sluggish, while UVs continue to grow
Mar-12
FY12
Chg (%)
2,616,584
4.6
84
2,017,430
2.3
77
1,511,624
-1.8
75
451,949
21.4
22
53,857
-11.7
3
365,141
15.5
14
234,013
9.6
9
508,307
14.4
16
3,124,891
6.1
Source: SIAM/MOSL
Passenger vehicles: Volume snapshot
Jan-13
Total Domestic PVs
240,416
% of Tota l PVs
85
Total Cars
172,120
% of Domes ti c PVs
72
A1 & A2
121,786
% of Ca rs
71
A3
48,746
% of Ca rs
28
A4 & a bove
1,588
% of Ca rs
1
UVs
48,300
% of Domes ti c PVs
20
MPVs
19,996
% of Domes ti c PVs
8
Exports
41,460
% of Tota l PVs
15
Total PVs
281,876
Jan-12
252,112
84
196,019
78
150,877
77
41,818
21
3,324
2
34,841
14
21,252
8
47,946
16
300,058
YoY (%)
-4.6
-12.2
-19.3
16.6
-52.2
38.6
-5.9
-13.5
-6.1
Dec-12
203,389
80
137,991
68
103,975
75
31,599
23
2,417
2
44,665
22
20,733
10
52,097
20
255,486
MoM (%)
18.2
24.7
17.1
54.3
-34.3
8.1
-3.6
-20.4
10.3
YTD FY13
2,145,198
82
1,500,271
70
1,126,413
75
325,671
22
48,187
3
450,179
21
194,748
9
455,952
18
2,601,150
Chg (%)
4.4
-4.8
-5.1
-5.1
5.0
55.5
3.0
7.9
5.0
Cars: domestic volume (units)
240,000
200,000
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
Volume remains
lower YoY
160,000
120,000
80,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se p
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja n
Feb
Ma r
UVs & MPVs: domestic volume (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
88,000
Volumes improve
led by Ertiga, Duster and
Quanto
76,000
64,000
52,000
40,000
28,000
16,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Ja n
Feb
Ma r
March 2013
23

Dashboard
Passenger vehicles: export volume (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
65,000
56,000
Export volumes
pick-up
47,000
38,000
29,000
20,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se p
Oct
Nov
De c
Ja n
Feb
Ma r
Cars: domestic market share
Maruti
TataMotor
Hyundai
GM
Honda
100%
75%
MSIL market share
improves MoM with
Manesar ramp-up
50%
25%
0%
UVs: domestic market share
M&M
TataMotor
Toyota
Maruti
GM
100%
Maruti's market share
improves, driven
by Ertiga
75%
50%
25%
0%
Passenger vehicles: segment mix
A1
A2
A3
A4 & above
MPV
UV
100%
75%
A2 dominates the
passenger vehicles
segment
50%
25%
0%
March 2013
24

Dashboard
Sector Gauge
Commercial vehicles
LCVs remains strong, while M&HCV declines
Ma r-12
FY12 Chg (%)
804,440
17.6
90
348,785
7.9
43
299,081
8.7
86
49,704
3.6
14
455,655
26.3
57
406,351
28.6
51
49,304
10.1
6
89,524
21.0
10
893,964
18.0
Source: SIAM/MOSL
Commercial vehicles: Volume snapshot
Jan-13
Total Domestic CVs
63,206
% of Total CVs
92
Total M&HCV
19,083
% of Domestic CVs
30
Goods
16,296
% of M&HCVs
85
Pa s s enger
2,787
% of M&HCVs
15
Total LCVs
44,123
% of Domestic CVs
70
Goods
40,958
% of LCVs
65
Pa s s enger
3,165
% of LCVs
5
Exports
5,458
% of Total CVs
8
Total CVs
68,664
Jan-12
65,066
90
31,263
48
26,647
85
4,616
15
33,803
52
30,180
46
3,623
6
7,584
10
72,650
YoY (%)
-2.9
-39.0
-38.8
-39.6
30.5
35.7
-12.6
-28.0
-5.5
Dec-12
62,770
90
19,089
30
16,051
84
3,038
16
43,681
70
40,701
65
2,980
5
6,714
10
69,484
MoM (%)
0.7
0.0
1.5
-8.3
1.0
0.6
6.2
-18.7
-1.2
YTD FY13
632,405
90
213,418
34
180,560
85
32,858
15
418,987
66
383,519
61
35,468
6
67,782
10
700,187
Chg (%)
-0.7
-22.7
-24.0
-14.3
16.0
19.1
-9.7
-7.1
-1.4
M&HCVs: Domestic volume - goods (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
40,000
32,000
24,000
16,000
8,000
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
M&HCV volumes
remains under pressure
M&HCVs: domestic volume - buses (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
7,500
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
March 2013
25

Dashboard
M&HCVs: domestic market share, goods (%)
TataM o to r
A sho kLeyland
Eicher
100%
75%
Tata Motors continue
to dominate M&HCV
goods segment
50%
25%
0%
M&HCVs: domestic market share, buses (%)
TataMotor
AshokLeyland
Eicher
Swaraj
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
LCVs: domestic volumes (units)
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
60,000
50,000
LCVs continue
robust growth
40,000
30,000
20,000
Apr
Ma y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
March 2013
26

Dashboard
LCVs: domestic market share (%)
TataMotor
Piaggio
M&M
Others
100%
Tata Motors dominates
the domestic LCV
segment
75%
50%
25%
0%
Goods: segment-wise break-up (%)
LCVs
<1
2T
<1
6T
<35T
100%
LCVs contribution
to CVs increased
75%
50%
25%
0%
March 2013
27

Dashboard
News and Events
Major developments in the auto sector
February 2013
Nissan to set up Datsun plant in Chennai
Japanese automobile major Nissan is planning to invest INR17b to set up a factory for
Datsun range of low-cost small cars. The factory is likely to come up beside the current
Renault-Nissan factory at Oragadam, according to media reports.
A Nissan India Spokesperson said, "We are considering the possibility of producing an
entry-level model at the Renault-Nissan Alliance plant in Chennai but we cannot go
into any further detail." Government officials refused to comment. The company has
been planning to revive the brand and expects it to contribute to half its sales.
The facility is expected to manufacture 200,000 cars every year, from 2014, added
reports. The facility is also expected to serve the exports market. The brand is also
expected to be launched in South Africa next year, other than the three countries the
company had announced earlier.
Datsun, a local product with the assurance of a global brand, is developed just 30 km
away from the facility (Nissan's manufacturing unit at Oragadam) and will be
manufactured in India. The product is targeted at high-growth markets of the
developing nations. The company earlier said that the vehicles will be sold in India,
Indonesia, and Russia from 2014.
According to an announcement by Nissan Motor India in March, 2012, the Datsun
brand will play an important part in "Nissan Power 88," a comprehensive, six-year
business plan which would accelerate the company's growth across new markets and
segments. The cars would be designed to meet distinct local customer needs, featuring
the latest technology, and built locally.
Tata Safari Storme
Tata Motors likely to drive in mini-SUV
Tata Motors is looking at a variety of new vehicles in the utility vehicle and SUV space
to cash in on the rising popularity of such models. "We definitely have lost a bit of
ground but we will get back with new products. There are lots of projects in the
pipeline and we want to be a significant player in the UV segment," said Ashesh Dhar,
head, UV product group, at Tata Motors.
Dhar, said Tata Motors is looking to work out new strategies to boost the UV business.
"We are quite aggressive in UVs, and are looking at building on it further."
VW likely to invest INR20b at Pune plant
Volkswagen India, a part of Volkswagen AG, is likely to invest an additional INR20b at
its plant at Chakan near Pune for further expansion, a senior minister in the state
government told to the media. An agreement in this regard is expected to be signed
between the state government and VW in the coming weeks.
March 2013
28

Dashboard
The company might look at setting up an engine facility at Chakan in a bid to bring
down cost of ownership of its vehicles and make them more competitively priced.
Moreover, the company will also look at expanding its capacity as it prepares for its
new small car offering from the 'Up' platform in 2015.
However, asked about investment plans, a spokesperson from VW Group India said,
"The company is not looking at additional investment of INR20b at the Chakan plant.
However, we can expand the capacity of our existing facilities if the market demands."
"With growing volumes, an engine assembly in India is an option," the spokesperson
added.
Spread over 575 acre, VW's Chakan plant produces 1.30 lakh units per annum, including
VW Polo, Vento and Skoda Fabia and Rapid.
VW Jetta and Passat are assembled at Aurangabad where Audi and Skoda assemble
their premium products.
VW had made an investment of R3,800 crore in 2009 at the Chakan plant for an initial
capacity of 1.1 lakh units per annum. "At present, the capacity utilisation at the plant
is more than 80%," the VW spokesperson said. "In 2012, around two-third of the
production was of Volkswagen Polo and Vento and the remaining, Skoda Fabia and
Rapid."
Volvo Bus
Volvo to launch value segment bus
Volvo Bus Corporation has chosen India to launch a new brand that will cater to the
value segment following the success of its premium brand in the country. In another
development, the company said the target of reaching USD1b revenues from India by
2015 might get delayed because of the "poor economic environment."
Hakan Karlsson, Executive Vice-President for Business Areas, AB Volvo, told
newspersons that the brand will be launched first in India. "We will follow the dual
brand strategy for emerging markets," he said.
The value segment will be priced between INR4m and INR6m and stands between
the premium (INR8m to INR10m) and the traditional (INR1.5m and INR2.5m) segments.
Akash Passey, Senior Vice-President for business region at Volvo Bus Corporation,
said the value segment would grow to around 10,000 units in a few years. Volvo wants
to have about 25 per cent share of this emerging market," he said. The new brand will
cater to the tier two and three cities as well.
The new offering is part of the INR4b investment the company had earmarked for
India last year. It has also doubled the bus manufacturing plant to about 1,800 bus
units per year. Volvo posted a 10 per cent increase in sales of its buses in India to
about 700 units in 2012. It increased its market share to about 85 per cent from 73 per
cent during the previous year.
March 2013
29

Dashboard
Passey said the launch of the new brand does not mean the premium segment had
got saturated. "The new offering shows the potential the country has as it is the
second largest market for buses in the world," he said. Hakan said Volvo's hybrid
buses have done well in Europe and if there is a demand from India, it is ready to have
them launched here.
Avia truck
Ashok Leyland to launch Avia trucks in India by July
Hinduja flagship company Ashok Leyland indicated to media that it will launch the
Avia range of trucks in India by July as it prepares to introduce a range of new products,
hoping for a revival of market in the second half of next fiscal.
"We have a few new products lined up for this year. Our Avia range of truck will be
launched by July this year," Ashok Leyland Managing Director Vinod K Dasari told to
media. He said the Avia trucks will be rolled out from the company's manufacturing
plant at Pant Nagar in Uttarakhand.
In 2006, Ashok Leyland had acquired the Avia Truck Business Unit, a leading vehicle
manufacturer in Europe, at an estimated cost of around USD35 million and helped it
expand in global markets, and also improve product portfolio. It was later rechristened
as AVIA Ashok Leyland Motors and at present it produces a class of trucks with gross
vehicle weights of 6.5 to 12 tonne.
Ford Endeavour
Ford launches Endeavour variant at INR2.3m
Car maker Ford India launched a new variant of its sports utility vehicle Endeavour,
priced at INR2.3m (ex-showroom New Delhi). The company, which markets various
car models including Figo and Classic, also announced its association with National
Geographic channel for a five-part series featuring five celebrities and the latest
variant--Endeavour Alterrain.
The launch of the new Endeavour variant comes at a time when Ford is trying to
increase its reach in the country to boost sales.
"We are aiming to have 500 odd touch points in the country by the middle of this
decade," Ford India Executive Director Marketing, Sales and Service Vinay Piparsania
told to media.
He added that the company is aiming to expand its presence in tier I and tier II towns.
The company currently has around 260 sales and service touch points across the
country.
The new variant, Endeavour Alterrain has been launched with various additional
features including, front nudge bar, roof tray and rear spoiler.
Ford Endeavour range starts at INR1.9m (ex-showroom New Delhi).
March 2013
30

Dashboard
Bharat Benz trucks
Daimler to launch more truck models this year
Daimler India Commercial Vehicles Pvt. Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Daimler
AG, has sold 1,098 units of the newly-launched BharatBenz heavy-duty truck range,
since its launch in September 2012.
Three models of heavy-duty trucks (25-tonne rigid, 25-tonne construction and 31-
tonne construction) were launched on September 26 in Mumbai. Since then, the
trucks have been launched in various markets across the West, East and South.
As of end-2012, outlets have been opened in 30 locations and the network is set to
expand to add 79 locations through 2013, said the company release.
Marc Llistosella, Managing Director & CEO, said: "2012 was very eventful. We showcased
our trucks, completed our plant, began the production of our trucks and finally
launched our heavy-duty trucks. Even through tough market conditions during and
after our launch, BharatBenz has achieved this milestone."
V. R.V. Sriprasad, Vice-President, Marketing, Sales & After-sales, said: "We are
confident that the market in 2013 will resurge and with newer additions to our product
range, BharatBenz will create a substantial impact." 2013 will see the launch of more
models, including light and medium duty trucks, said the release.
The BharatBenz trucks are backed by financial support from Daimler's financial arm -
Daimler Financial Services. BharatBenz Insurance offers cashless facility including
zero depreciation, said the release.
BharatBenz has also tied up with Indian financial institutions ICICI, HDFC, Sundaram
Finance, Shriram Transport Finance, Kotak, Cholamandalam, IndusInd, Reliance
Capital, Srei, Magma & Axis Bank for financing solutions.
FIAT Jeep
Fiat India to launch new car and jeep models this year
Fiat India is eyeing doubling its market share and would introduce a new car and two
jeep models this year, a top company official said to the media.
The company will launch a new model -- 'Punto Abarth' by June and 'Wrangler' and
'Cherokee' Jeep brands by October in the country, Managing Director of FIAT Group
Automobiles India Pvt Ltd, Enrico Atanasio told to the media.
The total car market size in India is 2.13 lakh units a month. Fiat India presently enjoys
a 0.5 per cent market share and plans to double this, he said, adding 'we are confident
that we will touch 1 per cent by 2013 end". A 'B' segment SUV and 'C' segment SUV
would be launched in 2014-15, he said adding the 'B' segment is growing as Indian
customer wants better performing product.
While 'Punto Abarth' will be manufactured at the Ranjangaon plant in Maharashtra in
both petrol and diesel versions, 'Wrangler' and 'Cherokee', the original Jeep brands,
would be imported, he said.
March 2013
31

Dashboard
Atanasio said Fiat aims to put in place a wide network of dealerships, around 60-65,
by March this year and 110 dealers by December this year.
Presently, there are 20 dealerships. A new dealership would be opened at Thrissur in
the state. He said the company views Kochi as a very strategic market and the
inauguration of the exclusive dealership was in accordance with its strategy to
capitalise on this potential.
Fiat Group Automobiles India Private Ltd (FGAIPL) is a fully owned subsidiary of Fiat
Group Automobiles SpA, Italy. Incorporated in March 2012, the company will distribute
FIAT and Jeep vehicles in India through an independent dealer network. The company
currently sells FIAT Linea and Punto models manufactured by the Tata-Fiat joint
venture.FIAT Jeep.
March 2013
32

Dashboard
N O T E S
March 2013
33

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