Daily Fundamental Report - Agro

DAILY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - AGRO

Oct 04

, 2011

Market Overview:

Turmeric futures surged as traders created fresh positions on

the back of form demand for the forthcoming festive seasons.

However, emergence of demand from upcountry buyers ahead

of festive season supported the upside.

Pepper prices moved up in futures trading as speculators

created fresh positions, driven by pick up in local as well as

export demand. Restricted arrivals from producing regions

also supported the uptrend in pepper futures prices.

NCDEX Chana prices traded on positive note as speculators

short covered their position at lower level amid lower arrival

and strong demand mainly influenced the prices here.

Jeera prices rose in futures trading as speculators indulged in

creating fresh positions, driven by a pickup in spot market

demand. Fresh buying by traders on the back of a pick-up in

demand in the spot market mainly pushed up jeer

a prices in

futures trade.

Watch

Market Watch

AGRO

CHANA

CHILLY

GUAR GUM

GUAR SEED

JEERA

PEPPER

R M SEED

SOYA BEAN

SOYA OIL

TURMURIC

WHEAT

CONTRACT

20-Oct-11

OPEN

3074

8630

13301

4220

14660

35100

2723

2101

598.1

4702

1108

HIGH

3215

8790

13606

4357

14814

35640

2774

2120.5

610.5

4848

1115

LOW

3041

8630

13075

4180

14550

35100

2711

2071

595

4674

1105

3187

8724

13490

4327

14772

35620

2766

2115

608.55

4848

1112

CHG

102

189

218

490

7.25

188

1.2

% CHG

2.02

1.18

1.42

1.74

1.5

1.39

1.13

0.19

1.21

4.03

0.11

160980

5605

25360

147500

13614

6329

81420

94700

85140

9335

28700

CHG

29850

1550

3040

9500

2751

1047

33170

24100

37680

2940

2760

%CHG

18.5

27.7

12.0

6.4

20.2

16.5

40.7

25.4

44.3

31.5

9.6

DAILY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - AGRO

Oct 04

, 2011

PEPPER

Pepper futures traded on positive note as market participants were short covering their position at lower level amid

lower arrival and strong demand settled the prices in green.

Outlook:

Fundamental Outlook:

Exports and domestic demand from North India remained good. Demand from North India too has been regularly

there ahead of the Festive season.

Traders expect that with low stocks, lower global production and rising export demand, trend is likely to remain

Bullish for the commodity from a medium to long term point of view. Strengthening in the Dollar vs Re rates could

have beneficial impact on the export front. But short term correction possibilities remain.

Vietnam is having low stocks as per reports. The production there too is expected to fall this year as per some

estimates. Brazil and Indonesian crop expected to be lower. Low carryover stock in Brazil and Indonesia is likely to

raise exports here in coming months.

Pepper improved by Rs. 400 per quintal in key Kochi market on increased demand against tight supply and

positive futures. In Kochi, black pepper un-garbled is sold at Rs 33,400 per quintal and MG-1 at Rs 34,400.

JEERA

NCDEX Jeera futures traded on positive note amid higher arrivals and weak demand from spot market. At the

National Commodity Exchange and Derivatives jeera prices traded on positive note and settled by Rs 218 at Rs 14772

per quintal.

Fundamental Outlook:

Jeera sowing is expected to start by late October. Lower than expected export demand is also pressurizing the

trend.

Cumin production will be around 21 lakh bags compared to 28 bags last year. The exports also fell by around 40

percent to 7750 tons for period April to July 2011.

Reports of adverse weather conditions in other major producers like Turkey and Syria have created apprehensions

of lower output there. Syrian production expected at 40000 tons and that in Turkey lower at 12-15000 tons.

Export demand from US and EU could also rise at these lower levels in coming weeks and that could have a

moderate bullish impact on the prices.

DAILY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - AGRO

Oct 04

, 2011

TURMERIC

Turmeric futures traded on positive note on strong spot demand amid lower arrivals in the spot markets.

Fundamental

Fundamental Outlook

Turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh, India's biggest producer, was down nearly 3 percent on year at 67,000

hectares as on Sept 21 due to delayed and irregular rains in the initial phase of the sowing.

The up trend in the commodity continued on the back of short covering lead by reports of decline in the arrivals and

emergence of some buying interest at lower levels ahead of the festivals.

Exports that had remained low are however expected to rise in coming weeks from Europe, US, West Asia and

Japan. That could support the falling prices to some extent.

Good stocks and increased selling pressure along with weak demand in the mandis have kept trend weak for the

commodity over the last few weeks. The sowing period is from June-August and harvesting begins in January.

CHANA

Chana futures shown some short-covering and lower level buying after a sharp connection in prices on fears that the

government may act to ensure supplies to meet consumer demand in the ongoing festival season.

Fundamental Outlook

Rajasthan government has reduced the wholesaler stock limit on chana to 250 MT from 500 MT and turnover

period to 75 days from 150 days with effect from 14 the October, 2011.

Traders feel that rates have moved up significantly over last few months and even though Festive demand

continues, some selling pressure cannot be ruled out before demand picks up again at the lower levels.

The other major producers for Pulses—namely Myanmar, Australia and Canada are likely to report a fall in Pulses

production due to adverse weather conditions in those countries. The Indian imports are likely to get costlier in

coming months which could support the Chana rates.

The total production of pulses in this kharif (July-September) is projected lower at 6.43 million tons, down from

7.12 million tons in last year, a drop of nearly 10%.

DAILY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - AGRO

Oct 04

, 2011

SOYABEAN

Soyabean prices marginally gain by Rs 4 to Rs 2,115 per quintal in the futures trading on the back of strong overseas

trend. Increased selling by traders in tandem with weak international advices mainly pulled down the soyabean prices.

Fundamental Outlook

The underlying trend for Indian oil and oil seed futures in medium term is expected to remain weak on higher oil

seed production estimates and increasing arrival pressure.

Soy beans at the cash market traded weak with the onset of new crop arrivals. Domestic demand for oil is expected

to gain pace for the upcoming festive season however new crop arrival pressure will keep the upside capped.

Arrival in MP was 60,000 bags and around 20,000 bags in Maharashtra. This year Indian soy bean production

estimates are expected to be higher and touch nearly 10.5-10.7 million tons as compared to last year’s production of

9.687 million tons.

Fresh crop has started arriving in the markets and market will witness heavy pressure during first fortnight of

October. Fundamentals still seems in favor of bears.

DAILY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - AGRO

Oct 04

, 2011

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