E
CO
S
COPE
The Economy Observer
12 February 2025
Jan’25 inflation eases, IIP weakens in Dec’24
Expect ~6% real GDP growth in 3QFY25
Headline CPI inflation came down to a five-month low of 4.3% YoY in Jan'25 vs. 5.2% in Dec'24. The deceleration was
mainly led by a five-month slowest growth in food inflation (6% in Jan'25 vs. 8.4% in Dec'24). However, core inflation
remained broadly stable at ~3.7% during the month (Exhibit 1). On a sequential basis, inflation declined 1.0% in Jan'25 vs.
0.5% in Dec'24. The inflation number was slightly lower than the market consensus of 4.5% and our forecast of 4.7%. In
Apr'24-Jan'25, inflation stood at 4.9% vs. 5.4% in the same period last year.
Food inflation came down to 6% YoY in Jan’25 (lowest in five months) vs. 8.4% in Dec’24. Details suggest that lower food
inflation (vs last month) was mainly attributed to a five-month slowest growth in prices of vegetables (11.4% in Jan’25 vs.
26.6% in Dec’24), 31-month lowest increase in cereal prices, 29-month lowest increase in pulse prices, and 27-month
lowest increase in prices of eggs. On the other hand, prices of oil & fats surged to a 33-month high of 15.6% in Jan’25. CPI,
excluding veggies, stood at a 12-month high of 3.8% in Jan’25. Notably, the prices of fuel & light items continued to
contract in Jan’25 (-1.4% YoY in Jan’25 vs. -1.3% in Dec’24).
Other details suggest that: 1) Services inflation remained broadly stable at 3.6% YoY in Jan'25, while goods inflation came
down to a five-month low of 4.5% in Jan'25; 2) CPI, excluding veggies (weight 94%), stood at a 12-month high of 3.8%
YoY; 3) Imported inflation jumped to a 23-month high of 5.5% in Jan'25, while domestically generated inflation came
down to 4.1%, lowest in six months (vs. 5.2% in Dec'24); 4) Standard core inflation (excluding food & energy) remained
broadly stable at ~4% YoY in Jan'25; and 5) Details confirm that 27% of the CPI basket posted 5%+ inflation in Jan'25 (vs.
29% in Dec'24).
At the same time, industrial output grew at a three-month low pace of 3.2% YoY in Dec’24 (vs. 5%/4.4% in
Nov’24/Dec’23). The deceleration in industrial output was mainly led by a four-month slow growth rate in manufacturing
sector. The number was lower than the market consensus of 3.5% and our forecast of 4.7%. In Apr-Dec’24, IIP growth
averaged 4% YoY, compared to 6.3% in the corresponding period last year.
Manufacturing sector output grew 3.0% YoY in Dec’24 (lowest in four months) vs. 5.5% in Nov’24 and 4.6% in Dec’23. The
details of the manufacturing sector suggest that 69% of the sub-sectors grew at a slower rate compared to Dec’23 (vs.
43% in Nov’24), 66% of the items grew less than 5% (vs. 52% in Nov'24), and 25% of the items posted a contraction (vs.
only 14% in Nov’24). According to the use-based classification, the growth in the output of consumer goods stood at a 13-
month low in Dec’24 (-2.1% in Dec’24 vs. 11.9% in Dec’23), led by a contraction in consumer non-durables output (worst
in 26 months). At the same time, capital goods (at 10.3% in Nov’24 vs. 8.8%/3.7% in Nov’24/Dec’23) grew at a five-month
high pace in Dec’24, though infrastructure & construction goods and consumer durables output grew at a slower pace in
Dec’24 (vs. Nov’24).
Overall, slower inflation and weak growth support the RBI’s rate cut last week. With IIP growth improving slightly to
3.9% YoY in 3QFY25 from 2.7% YoY in 2Q, we continue to expect a sub-6% real GDP growth in 3QFY25 vs 5.4% in 2Q.
CPI inflation down to a five-month low:
Headline CPI inflation came down to a
five-month low of 4.3% YoY in Jan’25 vs. 5.2% in Dec’24. The deceleration was
mainly led by a five-month slowest growth in food inflation (6% in Jan’25 vs.
8.4% in Dec’24). However, core inflation remained broadly stable at ~3.7%
during the month
(Exhibit 1).
On a sequential basis, inflation declined 1.0% in
Jan’25 vs. 0.5% in Dec’24. The inflation number was slightly lower than the
market consensus of 4.5% and our forecast of 4.7%. In Apr’24-Jan’25, inflation
stood at 4.9% vs. 5.4% in the same period last year.
Food inflation came down to 6%:
Food inflation came down to 6% YoY in Jan’25
(lowest in five months) vs. 8.4% in Dec’24. Details suggest that lower food
inflation (vs. last month) was mainly attributed to a five-month slowest growth
in prices of vegetables (11.4% in Jan’25 vs. 26.6% in Dec’24), 31-month lowest
increase in cereal prices, 29-month lowest increase in pulse prices, and 27-
month lowest increase in prices of eggs. On the other hand, prices of oil & fats
Nikhil Gupta
– Research analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)
Tanisha Ladha
– Research analyst
(Tanisha.Ladha@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
surged to a 33-month high of 15.6% in Jan’25. CPI, excluding veggies, stood at a
12-month high of 3.8% in Jan’25
(Exhibit 2).
Notably, the prices of fuel & light
items continued to contract in Jan’25 (-1.4% YoY in Jan’25 vs. -1.3% in Dec’24).
Other details suggest that:
1) Services inflation remained broadly stable at 3.6%
YoY in Jan’25, while goods inflation came down to a five-month low of 4.5% in
Jan’25; 2) CPI, excluding veggies (weight 94%), stood at a 12-month high of 3.8%
YoY; 3) Imported inflation jumped to a 23-month high of 5.5% in Jan’25, while
domestically generated inflation came down to 4.1%, lowest in six months (vs.
5.2% in Dec’24)
(Exhibit 3);
4) Standard core inflation (excluding food & energy)
remained broadly stable at ~4% YoY in Jan’25; and 5) Details confirm that 27% of
the CPI basket posted 5%+ inflation in Jan’25 (vs. 29% in Dec’24)
(Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 2: Food inflation at 5-month low of 6% in Jan’25
7
(% YoY)
14
11
7
4
0
Food
CPI excl veg
Exhibit 1: Retail inflation eased to 4.3% in Jan’25…
(% YoY)
12
9
6
3
0
Headline CPI
Core CPI
6
4.3
5
3.7
4
3
6.0
3.8
# Core CPI excludes food & beverages and fuel & light
Vegetables weight in CPI = 6.04%
Exhibit 3: Imported inflation jumped to a 23-month high of
5.5% in Jan’25
(% YoY)
18
12
6
0
-6
Imported inflation
Domestic inflation
10
Exhibit 4: 27% of the CPI basket recorded more than 5%
inflation last month
India's CPI inflation (%, weight)
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
<=5%
>5%
4.1
5.5
8
5
3
0
Based on 299 items
12 February 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 5: CPI and its key components
Overall CPI
Food and beverages
Cereal and products
Pulses and products
Meat and fish
Milk and products
Vegetables
Pan, tobacco, and intoxicants
Fuel and light
Housing
Clothing and footwear
Miscellaneous
Transport and communication
Core CPI*
FY24
5.4
7.0
10.7
15.2
2.3
6.5
14.9
3.6
1.2
3.9
4.7
4.5
1.9
4.3
FY24#
5.4
6.9
11.4
14.5
1.7
7.1
12.7
3.7
1.9
4.1
5.1
4.6
2.0
4.5
FY25#
4.9
7.4
7.5
10.7
5.2
2.9
24.8
2.7
-3.0
2.7
2.7
3.9
2.2
3.4
Jan’24
5.1
7.6
7.8
19.5
1.2
4.6
27.1
3.3
-0.6
3.2
3.4
3.8
2.0
3.6
Nov’24
5.5
8.2
6.9
5.4
4.7
2.9
29.4
2.3
-1.8
2.9
2.7
4.3
2.7
3.6
Dec’24
5.2
7.7
6.5
3.8
5.3
2.8
26.6
2.5
-1.3
2.7
2.7
4.2
2.6
3.6
Jan’25
4.3
5.7
6.2
2.6
5.3
2.8
11.3
2.3
-1.4
2.8
2.7
4.3
2.8
3.7
*Excluding food & beverages and fuel & light, # Apr-Jan period
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL
Industrial output remains subdued in Dec’24
Industrial output slowed in Dec’24:
Industrial output grew at a three-month low
pace of 3.2% YoY in Dec’24 (vs. 5%/4.4% in Nov’24/Dec’23). The deceleration in
industrial output was mainly led by a four-month slow growth rate in
manufacturing sector
(Exhibit 6).
The number was lower than the market
consensus of 3.5% and our forecast of 4.7%. In Apr-Dec’24, IIP growth averaged
4% YoY, compared to 6.3% in the corresponding period last year.
Manufacturing sector growth at a four-month low in Dec’24:
Manufacturing
sector output grew 3.0% YoY in Dec’24 (lowest in four months) vs. 5.5% in
Nov’24 and 4.6% in Dec’23. The details of the manufacturing sector suggest that
69% of the sub-sectors grew at a slower rate compared to Dec’23 (vs. 43% in
Nov’24), 66% of the items grew less than 5% (vs. 52% in Nov'24), and 25% of the
items posted a contraction (vs. only 14% in Nov’24)
(Exhibit 8).
At the same
time, mining activities grew 2.6% YoY in Dec’24 (vs. 1.9%/5.2% in
Nov’24/Dec’23), while power generation increased by 6.2% (highest in five
months) during the month (vs. 4.4%/1.2% in Nov’24/Dec’23)
(Exhibit 7).
Capital goods did well, consumer non-durables contracted in Dec’24:
According
to the use-based classification, growth in the output of consumer goods stood at
a 13-month low in Dec’24 (-2.1% in Dec’24 vs. 11.9% in Dec’23), led by
contraction in consumer non-durables output (worst in 26 months). At the same
time, capital goods (at 10.3% in Nov’24 vs 8.8%/3.7% in Nov’24/Dec’23) grew at
a five-month high pace in Dec’24, though infrastructure & construction goods
and consumer durables output grew at a slower pace in Dec’24 (vs. Nov’24).
(Exhibit 9).
Our view:
Overall, slower inflation and weak growth support the RBI’s rate cut
last week. With IIP growth improving slightly to 3.9% YoY in 3QFY25 from 2.7%
YoY in 2Q, we continue to expect a sub-6% real GDP growth in 3QFY25 vs. 5.4%
in 2Q.
12 February 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 6: IIP grew 3.2% YoY in Dec’24…
8
6
4
2
0
4.4
IIP (% YoY)
Exhibit 7: …led by slowdown in manufacturing activity
14
5.0
3.2
8
2
-4
-10
Mining
(% YoY)
6.2
3.0
2.6
Mfg
Electricity
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: 25% of the manufacturing sector posted
contraction in Dec’24 vs. only 14% in Nov’24
100
75
50
25
0
25.3
< last year
<0%
< 5%
68.9
65.7
Exhibit 9: Capital goods grew at a five-month high rate;
consumer goods output contracted
Primary
Infra/cons
(pp)
Capital
Consumer
Intermediate
IIP (% YoY)
10
7
4
1
(2)
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Exhibit 10:
Key components of IIP
% YoY
Industry-based classification
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity
IIP
Use-based classification
Primary Goods
Capital Goods
Intermediate Goods
Infrastructure/Construction
Consumer Goods
Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
Weight
14.4
77.6
8.0
100.0
34.0
8.2
17.2
12.3
28.2
12.8
15.3
#Apr-Dec period
FY23
5.8
4.7
8.9
5.3
7.5
13.0
3.8
8.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
FY24
7.5
5.5
7.1
5.9
6.1
6.3
5.3
9.7
3.9
3.6
4.1
FY24#
8.8
5.8
7.2
6.3
7.1
7.4
4.8
10.9
3.9
1.3
5.6
FY25#
3.2
4.0
5.5
4.0
3.9
5.2
4.5
6.1
2.6
8.9
(1.3)
Dec-23
5.2
4.6
1.2
4.4
4.8
3.7
3.7
5.5
3.8
5.2
3.0
Oct-24
0.9
4.4
2.0
3.7
2.5
3.1
4.6
4.8
3.9
5.7
2.6
Nov-24
1.9
5.5
4.4
5.0
Dec-24
2.6
3.0
6.2
3.2
2.7
3.8
8.8
10.3
4.8
5.9
8.1
6.3
5.4
(2.1)
14.1
8.3
0.4
(7.6)
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
12 February 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Rating may undergo a change
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12 February 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its
associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document.
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Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
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Contact Person
Ms. Hemangi Date
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
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022 40548000 / 022 67490600
022 40548082
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12 February 2025
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