Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sector Update | 26 August 2024

Cement

Price hikes announced; sustainability to be monitored

Average price of cement per 50kg bag

increases 4% MoM in Aug’24

Prices increased by INR10-20/bag across regions



Average imported petcoke price down

11% YoY to USD108/t in Aug’24

Our channel checks suggest that cement players have increased prices in the

range of INR10-20/bag (up ~3-6% as compared to Jul’24 average) across regions,

with effect from the third week of Aug’24. As a result, the all-India cement price is

up ~4% from the Jul’24 average and ~1% from the 1QFY25 average.

We believe that price hikes are necessary to restrict earnings downgrades as lower

demand during general elections and increased competitive intensity have kept

cement prices under pressure for the last few months. Our current estimates

factor in realization growth of ~4%/~1% QoQ in 3QFY25/4QFY25, which, if

happens, would drive average EBITDA/t improvement of INR340 in 2HFY25 after a

subdued performance in 1HFY25.

Further, consolidation is rising with increasing M&A activities in the industry, and a

larger part of capacity addition, over the next three years, would be done by the

top five players. Consequently, the capacity share of top five players is likely to

increase to ~63% by FY26E from ~54% in FY24. Intensifying consolidation in the

industry should lead to better pricing power in the long term.

Cement prices have corrected for the last nine consecutive months (Nov’23 to

Jul’24) amid higher competitive intensity followed by a slowdown in demand. The

all-India average cement price was down ~13% in Jul’24 from its peak in Oct’24, and

the average cement realization for our cement coverage companies was down ~8%

in 1QFY25 as compared to 3QFY24. In most markets, cement price was at a multi-

year low level, whereas in South (particularly in Tamil Nadu and Kerala), it was at a

decadal low level.

However, cement companies have recently announced price hikes in the range of

INR10-20/bag across regions, with effect from the third week of Aug’24. Within

regions, prices are increased by INR20/bag MoM (up ~6% from Jul’24 average) in

the south region, INR15/bag (up ~4-5%) in the east and west regions (each), and

INR10/bag (up ~3%) in north and central regions (each).

Dealers have indicated that the price hike could partly be sustained as intermittent

rains, higher competition, weak volume offtake in non-trade segment and upcoming

festive/marriage season would lead to demand disruption. However, they also

indicated that companies may attempt another price hike of up to INR25/bag in the

coming weeks. We would be watchful for sustainability of these price hikes and a

further attempt of price hikes, if any, in the near term.

In 1QFY25, most of the cement companies under our coverage universe reported

lower-than-estimated profitability, mainly due to weak realization (average

realization declined ~3% QoQ vs. our estimate of ~1% decline). Resultantly, average

EBITDA/t was down 9%/18% YoY at INR827. Due to persistent pricing pressure and

guidance of soft cement prices by companies in the near term, we estimated a

further decline of ~1% QoQ in 2QFY25.

However, we estimated 4%/1% QoQ improvement in realization in 3Q/4QFY25,

considering the expected improvement in cement demand after the monsoon

Recent announcement forming the foundation for price rise



Average imported coal price up ~3%

YoY to USD116/t in Aug’24



Earnings sensitivity to realization remains high



Sanjeev Kumar Singh - Research analyst

(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)

Research analyst: Mudit Agarwal

(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)

| Abhishek Sheth

(Abhishek.Sheth@motilaloswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Cement



season. We believe that the sustainability of the recently announced price hikes is

necessary to restrict further earnings downgrades in the sector.

We estimated EBITDA/t for our coverage companies to decline ~13% QoQ in

2QFY25 due to softness in cement prices and seasonality impact (lower volume

would lead to lower fixes cost absorption). However, our current estimates factor in

an average EBITDA/t improvement of INR340 in 2HFY25 vs. 1HFY25 average

EBITDA/t (estimate EBITDA/t of INR1,114 in 2HFY25 vs. INR774 in 1HFY25).

In our recent

thematic “Stronger Together!”

we highlighted that consolidation is

rising with increasing M&A activities in the industry, and that a larger part of

capacity addition, over the next three years, would be done by the top five

players. Consequently, the capacity share of top five players is likely to increase to

~63% by FY26E from ~54% in FY24.

Market concentration remained unchanged over FY13-18 as top five players’

capacity share was stable at ~47% over FY13-18. During this period, cement

realization had also seen a muted ~1% CAGR. Consolidation in the industry

increased over FY19-24 and top five cement companies’ capacity share increased

to ~54% from ~47%. Over that period, cement realization for our coverage

universe posted a healthy CAGR of ~3%. Hence, we believe that intensifying

consolidation in the industry will drive a strong pricing discipline in the long term.

Cement prices have seen a sharp correction in past few months, resulting in

lower profitability. After the 1QFY25 earnings update, we had cut our aggregate

EBITDA estimates for our cement coverage companies by ~8% for FY25,

considering lower cement prices. We believe that the sustainability of the

recently announced price hikes is necessary to restrict further earnings

downgrades in the sector.

Also, we believe that increasing consolidation in the industry, cost reduction

measures by leading companies (increasing usage of green power, alternative

fuel logistics cost optimization etc.) and the focus on improvement in brand

presence (most of the companies are improving brand architecture and internal

control) are key positive factors for the sector.

We continue to prefer UTCEM in the large cap space and JKCE in the midcap

space.

P/E (x)

FY26E

33.7

29.0

47.1

17.4

26.0

29.6

29.1

160.3

16.1

16.9

FY27E

27.7

24.1

39.8

14.7

20.7

24.1

24.7

40.5

12.5

14.7

EV/EBITDA (x)

FY25E

23.4

22.0

18.9

10.5

11.5

17.2

13.7

Loss

10.0

10.1

FY26E

18.3

16.6

16.0

8.4

9.7

13.6

11.5

26.3

7.0

7.8

FY27E

15.1

13.4

14.3

6.6

8.1

11.8

10.4

17.0

6.0

7.2

EV/t (USD)

FY25E

232

214

174

105

187

114

109

FY26E

206

177

151

163

108

FY27E

186

164

134

147

106

ROE (%)

FY25E

11.9

6.4

8.7

12.2

5.9

15.2

5.9

(5.5)

4.8

12.2

FY26E

13.5

7.8

8.5

13.2

7.4

17.8

8.6

1.3

8.8

14.5

FY27E

14.1

8.8

9.4

13.8

8.8

18.9

9.3

5.1

10.4

14.7

Net debt/

EBITDA (x)

FY25E FY26E FY27E

(0.1) (0.2) (0.5)

(3.9) (1.8) (1.9)

(1.2) (0.8) (0.5)

(1.8) (1.9) (2.2)

0.5 0.2 (0.2)

2.2 1.8 1.2

3.1 2.6 2.4

26.9 4.4 2.5

2.4 1.5 1.1

1.7 1.7 1.7

Consolidation intensifies; benefits in long term



Outlook: Price hike announcement driving positive sentiment



Exhibit 1:

Valuation summary

M-cap CMP

(USD b) (INR)

UTCEM

ACEM

SRCM

ACC

DALBHARA

JKCE

TRCL

ICEM

BCORP

JKLC

39.1

14.9

10.7

5.3

4.1

2.3

1.4

1.2

1.1

Rating

FY25E

11,337 Buy 43.4

628

Buy 41.8

24,882 Neutral 48.8

2,342

Buy 21.2

1,814

Buy 34.6

4,444

Buy 39.7

821 Neutral 44.7

366

Sell

Loss

1,322

Buy 31.4

787

Buy 22.6

Source: MOFSL, Company; Note: ACEM estimates and valuation on a consolidated basis

26 August 2024

Cement

Story in charts

Exhibit 2:

Region-wise capacity share of top 5 players over FY17/FY21/FY26E

FY17

FY21

FY26E

All-India

North

Central

East

West

South

Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company

Exhibit 3:

Consolidation in the industry is rising

All India top five players capacity share (%)

Exhibit 4:

Consolidation benefits in realization improvement

Industry average Realization (INR/t)

52 52

51 52

47 46 46 47 46 47 47

Source: MOFSL, Industry, company

Source: MOFSL; Industry, Company

Exhibit 5:

Estimated ~4%/1% QoQ improvement in realization in

3Q/4QFY25

Realization (INR/t)

Exhibit 6:

Estimated EBITDA/t to improve in 2HFY25

Average EBITDA (INR/t)

Source: MOFSL, company; Note: Average of our cement coverage

companies

Source: MOFSL, company; Note: Average of our cement coverage

companies

26 August 2024

Cement

Exhibit 7:

Player-wise fuel consumption cost (INR/Kcal)

4QFY24

1.84

1.82

1QFY25

2.03

1.91

1.68

1.79

1.65

1.45

1.54

1.68

ACEM

1.38

DALBHARA

1.49

TRCL

1.76

SRCM

1.63

JKLC

2.00

UTCEM

1.73

ACC

1.62

JKCE

1.48

BCORP

Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company

Exhibit 8:

All-India average cement price down ~2% YoY in Aug’24

Average price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Exhibit 9:

Average cement price down ~4% YoY in North in Aug’24

North retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers

Exhibit 10:

Average cement price down 1% YoY in Central in

Aug’24

Central retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Exhibit 11:

Average cement price down ~1% YoY in East in Aug’24

East retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers

Exhibit 12:

Average cement price down ~4% YoY in South in

Aug’24

South retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Exhibit 13:

Average cement price down ~1% YoY in West in

Aug’24

West retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers

26 August 2024

Cement

Exhibit 14:

Average US petcoke price down 11% YoY in Aug’24

Imported petcoke price (USD/t)

YoY growth (%)

Exhibit 15:

Domestic petcoke price down 4% YoY in Aug’24

Domestic petcoke price(INR/t)

YoY growth (%)

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg, Industry

Source: MOFSL, Industry

Exhibit 16:

Average South African coal price up ~3% YoY in Aug’24

South African coal (USD/t)

YoY growth (%)

Exhibit 17:

Diesel price lower by ~5% YoY in Aug’24

Diesel price (INR/ltr)

YoY growth (%)

Source: MOFSL, Industry

Source: MOFSL, Industry, Bloomberg,

Exhibit 18:

Crude oil price trend

Brent Crude (USD/ton)

116

100 97

43 46

Exhibit 19:

Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index (USD)

3,500

2,700

81 83 85 81 79

1,900

1,100

300

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL; Note: Baltic dry index as on month-end

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

26 August 2024

Cement

NOTES

26 August 2024

Cement

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

> - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take

appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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Cement

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