Sector Update |
Update | Financials
Sector
14 October 2020
Financials
Technology
Asset quality remains under watch; MSME credit declines 6% YoY
Credit guarantee scheme aiding faster revival; PSBs gaining market share
Higher NPAs in large ticket size
bucket
Proportion of missed payments
for loans across CMR; 20%
aggregate increase in missed
payments
As per the latest
TransUnion CIBIL Ltd on MSME Pulse
report, asset quality continued
to deteriorate in the MSME segment, with the NPA ratio increasing by 140bp YoY to
12.8% as of 1QFY21. However, NBFCs have witnessed the most significant increase in
NPAs in the segment by ~390bp YoY to 9.7%.
Currently, ~80%/86% of the PSB/Private Bank MSME disbursements in June’20 were
toward the Super Prime and Prime category MSME borrowers. However,
incrementally higher inquiries were seen from high-risk category borrowers.
Total MSME credit declined 6% YoY (3.4% QoQ) in 1QFY21. However, the emergency
credit line guarantee scheme (ECLGS) provided a much-needed boost. The impact was
clearly visible in PSBs, which disbursed 2.6x the loan amount in Jun’20 over Feb’20.
Also, private banks rebounded to earlier disbursal levels of Feb'20.
As per the latest press release from the finance ministry, the total loans sanctioned
under ECLGS stand at ~INR1.9t, of which INR1.4t has already been disbursed. Among
the lenders, PSBs disbursed INR688b, private banks INR597b, and NBFCs just INR22b.
MSME credit witnessed the sharpest decline in the metro/urban locations v/s the rural
and semi-urban regions. Furthermore, among the states, Maharashtra reported the
sharpest decline, followed by Gujarat, while Chhattisgarh and Bihar witnessed
moderately improving trends.
Sharp surge in NPA levels; higher missed payments rate in high-risk MSME
segment
The NPA ratio in the MSME segment increased by 140bp YoY to 12.8% in
1QFY21. Furthermore, private banks’ NPAs in the segment increased by 120bp
YoY to 5.8%, and PSBs’ NPAs increased by ~110b YoY to 18.6%.
However, NBFCs
witnessed the most significant increase in NPAs by ~390bp YoY to 9.7%.
Within the MSME sub-segments, higher NPAs were reported in higher ticket size
category loans.
Over the last few months (from Mar’20 to June’20),
the missed payments rate
(at least on term loans) increased from 9% (pre-COVID levels) to 25% in the
Super Prime category. On the other hand, a sharp increase was seen in sub-
prime category borrowers from 11% (pre-COVID) to ~36%.
Credit inquiries spike among high-risk category borrowers
Currently, ~80% of PSB disbursements to MSME in Jun’20 were toward Super Prime
(CMR 1–3) and Prime (CMR 4–6) category borrowers. Also, for private banks, ~86%
of the total disbursements were toward higher rated MSME borrowers.
However,
the latest credit inquiry trends in Aug’20 indicate higher inquiries from high-risk
category borrowers.
PSBs reported a sharp drop in Super Prime inquiries to 32% in
Aug’20 from 38% in Feb’20. Conversely, sub-prime inquiries for NBFCs increased to
24% in Aug’20 from 15% in Feb’20.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |Himanshu
Taluja
(Himanshu.Taluja@motilaloswal.com)
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com)
|
Yash Agarwal
(Yash.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors
14 October 2020
are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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