4th April 2018
Initiating Coverage I Sector: Consumer Staples
LT Foods
BSE SENSEX
33,019
S&P CNX
10,128
CMP: INR 88
TP: INR 125 (+42%)
Buy
A CONSUMER STORY IN THE MAKING
LT Foods Ltd. (LTFL) is one of the leading basmati rice players in India
having a strong foothold both in exports (55% of FY17 revenue) &
domestic market (45%). Key brands include Daawat (leading brand in
India), Royal (#1 brand in USA) and ecoLife (organic food). With growing
global demand for basmati and limited supply, we expect LTFL to
witness steady volume growth with improving realizations on back of
increased branded business. We forecast 12.2%/25.7% revenue/adj.
PAT CAGR over FY17-20E and an EBITDA margin improvement of 127bps
to 12.5%. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating valuing the stock at
12x FY20E EPS of INR10.4 with target price of INR125.
Domestic consumption to see continued demand growth:
Domestic
market remains a key growth driver for the branded basmati rice
players like LTFL as the Indian consumers move towards branded foods
on the back of rising affluence. The shift from unbranded basmati
(~73% in FY17) to branded is expected to continue due to better quality.
We expect LTFL to be one of the key beneficiaries of this changing
industry dynamics owing to its strong brand positioning, diverse
product portfolio catering varied price points and wide distribution
network.
Global expansion - Augurs well to tap lucrative markets:
Recently
LTFL set up a rice processing plant of 60,000 MT in Rotterdam
(Netherlands) to tap the European market. In FY17, it acquired Gold
Seal Indus Valley and Rozana brand from HUL in order to strengthen
its footprint in lucrative Middle East. Owing to healthy demand growth
across regions viz. USA (strong brand recall), Europe (leadership
position and new plant commercialization), Middle East (entry via
brand acquisitions from HUL), we expect healthy revenue growth in
exports.
Organic food and value added products- untapped potential:
LTFL has
also diversified into value added products (saute sauces, Rice based
snacks in JV with Kameda) and organic foods (brand ecoLife) which
are high growth segments for the company. We expect growth to be
largely driven by rising health awareness, changing lifestyle and limited
competition.
Valuation:
LTFL currently trades at 10.9x/8.5x on FY19/20 P/E. LTFL has
shown consistent revenue growth and profitability improvement over
years on account of rising share of branded business (resulting in
stable margins), geographical expansion and product innovation
(organic foods, value added products) leading to significant re-rating
in its valuation. Given LTFL's increased focus on branded basmati rice
and organic food business, we believe the company is becoming a
strong consumer story in the making. We initiate coverage with a BUY
rating valuing the stock at 12x FY20E EPS with a target price of INR125.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1m/6m/12m Rel. Per (%)*
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Turnover, INR m
Free float (%)
* relative to BSE Sensex
LTFO IN
320
57 / 110
-1/ 38 / 26
28.2
0.4
18.2
44
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2018E
Net Sales
36.7
EBITDA
4.1
PAT
1.8
EPS (Rs)
6.7
EPS Growth (%) 27.9
BV/Share (Rs)
46.0
P/E (x)
13.2
P/BV (x)
1.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.7
Div payout (%)
4.3
RoE (%)
19.0
RoCE (%)
10.6
2019E
41.1
4.9
2.2
8.1
20.2
53.7
10.9
1.6
7.2
4.5
16.2
11.0
2020E
46.5
5.8
2.8
10.4
29.1
63.7
8.5
1.4
6.1
4.1
17.7
12.5
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
MFs
FPIs
Others
Dec-17
56.0^
13.9
3.2
26.9
Sept-17
67.2
0.0
2.5
30.4
Jun-17
67.2
0.0
2.0
30.8
^due to dilution via QIP of INR4,000mn
Note:7.25% of the promoter shares are pledged
Investors are advised to refer through
disclosures made at the end of the
Research Report.
Siddhartha Khemka
siddhartha.khemka@motilaloswal.com
Alpesh Thacker
Alpesh.thacker@motilaloswal.com