5 March 2018

Market snapshot

Equities - India

Close

Chg .%

Sensex

34,047

-0.4

Nifty-50

10,458

-0.3

Nifty-M 100

19,512

-0.8

Equities-Global

Close

Chg .%

S&P 500

2,691

0.5

Nasdaq

7,258

1.1

FTSE 100

7,070

-1.5

DAX

11,914

-2.3

Hang Seng

12,204

-1.8

Nikkei 225

21,182

-2.5

Commodities

Close

Chg .%

Brent (US$/Bbl)

64

-0.7

Gold ($/OZ)

1,317

-0.1

Cu (US$/MT)

6,864

-0.3

Almn (US$/MT)

2,139

-0.6

Currency

Close

Chg .%

USD/INR

65.2

0.0

USD/EUR

1.2

0.6

USD/JPY

106.2

-0.4

YIELD (%)

Close

1MChg

10 Yrs G-Sec

7.7

0.01

10 Yrs AAA Corp

8.4

0.00

Flows (USD b)

1-Mar

MTD

FIIs

0.0

-1.9

DIIs

0.0

2.8

Volumes (INRb)

1-Mar

MTD*

Cash

319

377

F&O

13,186

8,673

Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg

YTD.%

0.0

-0.7

-7.7

YTD.%

0.7

5.1

-8.0

-7.8

4.2

-7.0

YTD.%

-4.2

1.1

-4.8

-5.2

YTD.%

2.0

2.2

-5.7

YTDchg

0.4

0.5

YTD

0.1

2.8

YTD*

403

7,942

Today’s top research idea

HDFC Bank: The juggernaut



HDFC Bank has consistently grown its market share in loans and deposits across

credit cycles, and has emerged as the best-managed bank in India with robust

profitability/growth metrics. Increasing granularity of the balance sheet, a

focus on fee income growth, an improvement in operating leverage aided by

digital initiatives, and controlled credit costs backed by strong underwriting

have enabled the bank to outperform most peers.



We expect the bank to maintain its growth momentum and further gain market

share across business segments. This, coupled with steady revenue growth, a

continued improvement in operating leverage and moderation in credit cost,

will help accelerate earnings growth (24% CAGR over FY18-20E).



We expect HDFCBK to deliver RoA/RoE of 1.96%/17.4% in FY20E. We maintain

our Buy rating with a target price of INR2,400.

Research covered

Cos/Sector

HDFC Bank

Automobile

Laurus Labs

Rain Industries

Fortis Healthcare

Key Highlights

The juggernaut

FEB-18 Volumes Nos: 1. Maruti Suzuki; 2. Tata Motors; 3. Bajaj Auto

USFDA compliance intact; Approval to start US sales

Carbon prices and margins continue to improve

2Q in-line, but a miss in 3Q; Entry of third-party key for re-rating

Piping hot news

Proxy advisory firm questions exemptions in Rs 369-bn ONGC-HPCL deal



Proxy advisory firm IiAS has questioned state-owned ONGC seeking exemption

from taking shareholders' nod for acquisition of the government's stake in HPCL,

saying such leniency with regard to public votes is not warranted. …

Chart of the Day: HDFC Bank – The juggernaut

RoRWA has increased at the same pace as RoA

PPoP to RWA has held strong even in periods of RoRWA

decline

Source: MOSL, Company

Source: MOSL, Company

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

In the news today

Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link

1

PNB scam: NCLT bars 64 firms

from selling assets

The National Company Law

Tribunal (NCLT) has restrained

over 60 companies, including

those belonging to Rs 12,600-

crore PNB fraud accused Nirav

Modi and his uncle Mehul Choksi,

from selling their assets, according

to a government announcement

on Sunday. The ex-parte NCLT …

2

India set to beat Japan in steel output, become second largest

producer

At the Third position in steel output over the last three years, India is

within striking distance of dislodging Japan as the second largest producer

of steel. However, the jump would still leave it far behind China which,

with 831.7 MT, accounted for 49.2% of the global output of 1,692 MT in

2017. The gap in production between Japan and India was almost reduced

to naught in the first month of the current year. This followed a consistent

pattern since 2013 when Japan’s output of 100.5 MT of steel was a good

29 MT higher than India’s.

3

Five PSBs on brink of being put

under RBI's prompt corrective

action plan

Five public sector banks (PSBs),

including Canara and Union Bank

of India, are on the brink of being

put under the Reserve Bank of

India’s (RBI’s) prompt corrective

action (PCA) plan. According to

rating agency Icra, their net non-

performing assets (NPAs) rose

above 6 per cent in December

2017. If the banking regulator …

4

Media and entertainment

sector seen growing at 11.6%

to Rs2 trillion by 2020

The Indian media and

entertainment (M&E) industry is

expected to grow at an annual

average rate of 11.6% to reach Rs2

trillion by the year 2020. The M&E

sector reached about Rs1.5 trillion

in 2017, a growth of around 13%

over 2016, said a report released

by the lobby group Federation of

Indian Chambers of Commerce …

5

SBI tightens project finance,

not to fund interest payments

State Bank of India has decided

against funding interest during

construction, a move that could

spell further trouble for

companies seeking project

finance from the nation’s largest

lender as they cannot keep

interest payment pending until

projects start generating

revenue. The decision is aimed at

de-risking the bank’s loan …

6

Dues to sugarcane farmers

soar to Rs14,000 crore

Following higher sugar production

and plummeting wholesale prices,

dues to sugarcane farmers from

mills are piling up, shows latest

numbers. According to the Indian

Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), till

January end, sugar mills across

various states owed farmers

Rs13,932 crore. Payment to cane

growers is considered ‘due’ when it

is delayed by more than 14 days …

7

Adani Gas plans direct listing

of shares

Adani Gas Ltd, the gas

distribution business of Adani

Group, is planning to go for a

direct listing of shares instead of

an initial public offering, two

people aware of the

development said. In January,

the Adani Group decided to

demerge its gas sourcing and

distribution business into a new

company called Adani Gas Ltd.

The board of Adani Enterprises…

5 March 2018

2

HDFC Bank

BSE SENSEX

34,047

S&P CNX

10,458

1 March 2018

Update | Sector: Financials

CMP: INR1,872

The juggernaut

TP: INR2,400(+28%)

Buy

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

M.Cap. (INR b)

M.Cap. (USD b)

Avg Val, INRm

Free float (%)

HDFCB IN

2,563

2014 / 1369

0/-1/18

5,023

77.9

3318.0

79.0

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

2018E 2019E 2020E

Y/E Mar

NII

409.5 484.7 588.8

OP

328.9 395.5 490.2

NP

175.8 216.4 270.9

NIM (%)

4.6

4.5

4.5

EPS (INR)

67.0

80.6 100.9

EPS Gr. (%)

18.0

20.3

25.2

BV/Sh. (INR)

473.8 538.2 621.0

ABV/Sh. (INR)

450.0 511.9 591.6

RoE (%)

16.2

15.9

17.4

RoA (%)

1.8

1.9

2.0

Payout (%)

21.1

20.2

17.9

Valuations

P/E(X)

27.9

23.2

18.6

P/BV (X)

4.0

3.5

3.0

P/ABV (X)

4.2

3.7

3.2

Div. Yield (%)

0.8

0.9

1.0

Shareholding pattern (%)

As On

Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16

Promoter

21.0

21.0

21.3

DII

12.2

11.6

12.4

FII

51.4

52.2

50.5

Others

15.4

15.1

15.9

FII Includes depository receipts

Stock Performance (1-year)

HDFC Bank

Sensex - Rebased

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

HDFC Bank (HDFCBK) has consistently grown its market share in loans and deposits across

credit cycles, and has emerged as the best-managed bank in India with robust

profitability/growth metrics. Increasing granularity of the balance sheet, a focus on fee

income growth, an improvement in operating leverage aided by digital initiatives, and

controlled credit costs backed by strong underwriting have enabled the bank to

outperform most peers. We expect the bank to maintain its growth momentum

(regardless of its systemic size) and further gain market share across business segments.

This, coupled with steady revenue growth, a continued improvement in operating

leverage and moderation in credit cost, will help accelerate earnings growth (24% CAGR

over FY18-20E). Moreover, its subsidiaries – HDB Financial Services and HDFC Securities –

are rapidly gaining scale and will further support valuations. We expect HDFCBK to

deliver RoA/RoE of 1.96%/17.4% in FY20E (RoE is suppressed as we have built in capital

raise of INR240b). We maintain our Buy rating with a target price of INR2,400.

Market share gains to continue; No size too big

Over the past 10 years, HDFCBK has steadily grown its loans/deposits market share

to ~7.8%/ 6.4% of the system, driven by steady branch addition (up 7x from 684 in

FY07 to 4,715 in FY17), improving employee productivity (business/employee

doubled over FY07-17), and effective use of technology to gain distribution

efficiency (cost-to-core income ratio decreased 840bp to 44.5% over FY07-17). The

bank has also recorded the highest incremental market share among peers. We

expect HDFCBK to continue gaining market share to reach 10% by FY22, driven by

robust growth in the vehicle portfolio, business banking and unsecured segments.

Retail loan growth remains strong; working diligently to expand the pie

HDFCBK has grown its retail book at a 27% CAGR over the past three years,

significantly ahead of systemic retail loan growth. Enhanced focus on rural and

semi-urban locations has helped the bank to gain strong traction in retail and SME

loans. SME loan growth has also received a boost from digitization of the

application process, which has reduced the turnaround time (TAT). While the share

of unsecured personal and credit card loans has increased, the bank’s credit

monitoring framework remains robust, helping it maintain strong control on

delinquency levels. The bank has 50%+ market share in the credit card business; it

targets to double its outstanding card base over the next three years.

Robust third-party and bancassurance fees are driving overall fee growth

HDFCBK has built a strong and well-diversified fee income profile over the years.

While fee income forms ~1.2% of average assets and ~23% of total income, the

contribution of third-party distribution to total fees has steadily increased to 16%

from 11% in FY14. This was driven by a 14% CAGR in third-party fees over FY12-17.

Bancassurance income from HDFC Standard Life Insurance forms ~32% of HDFCBK’s

third-party distribution fees. HDFCBK continues to command >70% of total

3

5 March 2018

commissions paid by HDFC Life, which, coupled with strong new business growth

trend for HDFC Life (43% growth over FY18YTD), provides visibility of robust fee

income from this channel.

Operating leverage continues to surprise positively; digital initiatives help

reduce sourcing costs

The bank has channelled its digital abilities to reduce involvement of manpower in

routine, process-driven operations, with an aim to enable employees to focus more

on business generation. Initiatives such as 10-second personal loans and pre-

approved auto loans have helped reduce sourcing costs, leading to a steady

improvement in cost-ratios. Over the past four years, the C/I ratio has improved by

450bp to 41%, and the cost-asset ratio by 31bp to 2.4%. We expect continued

operating leverage improvement (38.4% cost-income by FY20E), led by (i) controlled

employee/network growth, (ii) further improvement in branch productivity and (iii)

lower operating expenses due to increasing usage of technology.

Subsidiaries rapidly gaining scale; expected to add ~4.3% to valuations

Both HDB Financials and HDFC Securities have grown robustly over the last three

years. While HDB Financials reached AUM of INR352b by 1QFY18 (comparable to

CIFC), HDFC Securities recorded ~40% PAT CAGR over FY14-17, with its RoE

improving to a healthy level of 29%+ from 22% in FY16. We expect both the

subsidiaries to maintain strong growth trajectory over the next few years. At 25x

FY20E earnings for HDFC Securities and 3.5x FY20E BV for HDB Financials, the two

subsidiaries together would add INR103 to our TP, post hold-co discount of 20%.

Improvement in RoRWA underscores adequate pricing of risk; asset quality

risks well in control

Owing to stronger growth in the unsecured portfolio, the bank’s RWA has steadily

increased to 79% of total assets, indicating an increase in the risk profile. However,

we note that besides the improvement in RoA (40bp improvement over FY11-18),

the RoRWA of the bank has improved by ~30bp to ~2.5% during the same period.

This indicates that – (i) profitability has improved on the back of multiple levers

(higher fee income and lower opex) rather than simply taking on higher balance

sheet risk and (ii) the bank is able to adequately price the incremental risk it is taking

via robust growth in the unsecured portfolio. The delinquency trend in the

unsecured portfolio also remains well in control, given that >60% of credit card

loans and >50% of personal loans are disbursed to existing customers with a strong

credit history. HDFCBK’s focus in extending these products largely to salaried

customers also helps it in maintaining healthy asset quality.

Valuation view

We expect HDFCBK to record 23% loan book CAGR and 24% PAT CAGR over FY18-

20E, with RoA/RoE of 1.96%/17.4% in FY20E (RoE is suppressed as we have built in

capital raise of INR240b in our numbers). While margins may contract slightly due to

intensifying competition, its robust fee income profile and strong control on

operating leverage will continue driving a steady improvement in the return ratios

(12bp improvement in RoA over FY18-20E). We arrive at a target price of INR2,400

(3.9x Mar’20E ABV and INR103 for subs) and maintain our

Buy

rating.

5 March 2018

4

Sector Update| 1 March 2018

Automobiles

Maruti Suzuki

CMP: INR8,876

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

TP: INR10,972 (+24%)

Buy

MSIL IN

302

Domestic sales grew by 14.2% YoY and exports by 24.9% YoY

2,025/31.6

7249 / 3868



MSIL’s Feb-18 wholesales came in line at 149.8k units (+15% YoY, -1% MoM). YTDFY18

5/22/55











Dispatches up 15% YoY to 149.8k units (in-line)

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

795.7 956.4 1,114.7

EBITDA

124.0 158.3 196.4

Adj. PAT

81.6 109.9 140.4

Adj. EPS (INR)* 275.6 369.9 471.3

EPS Gr. (%)

10.8 34.2

27.4

BV/Sh. (INR) 1,365 1,597 1,899

RoE (%)

19.8 22.8

24.5

RoCE (%)

27.8 31.7

33.8

Valuations

P/E (x)

32.2 24.0

18.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 19.1 14.5

11.2

Div. Yield (%)

1.0

1.2

1.5

*Cons.

growth was at 13.2%, with a residual monthly run-rate of 164.7k units.

Domestic volumes grew 14.2% YoY to 137.9k (est. of 143.8k), led by continued growth

in the compact (+31.5% YoY) and UV (+13.8% YoY) segments.

Growth in the compact segment was led by new Swift, Baleno and new Dzire, while

that in UVs was led by Brezza and new S-cross.

Ciaz sales declined 16.8% YoY to 4.9k units (est. of 5.1k units).

Export volumes were better than estimate at 11.9k units (+24.9% YoY, +10.9% MoM).

The stock trades at 24x/18.8x FY19E/20E earnings. Maintain Buy.

Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

YoY

Company Sales

Maruti Suzuki

LCVs

Vans

Mini Segment

Compact (incl Dzire

Tour)

Mid Size - CIAZ

UVs

Total Domestic

Export

YoY (%)

chg

149,824 130,280 15.0

1,252

136

12,425 14,195 -12.5

33,789 33,079

2.1

Feb-18 Feb-17

65,213 49,576

31.5

MoM

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

Growth Monthly Monthly

MoM

(%)

FY18

Jan-18

FY18YTD FY17YTD

Gr. (%)

(%) Run rate Run rate

(%) chg

chg estimate

151,351 -1.0 1,618,976 1,428,840 13.3 1,783,710

13.7

17.9 164,734 147,180

1,411 -11.3

8,621

596

8,500

-121

784

12,250

1.4 141,448 140,381 0.8

160,282

5.4

62.0 18,834 12,859

33,316

1.4 389,672 383,008 1.7

426,400

3.0

18.6 36,728 35,425

67,868

-3.9

679,590

555,597 22.3

750,428

28.3

-8.0

30.8

15.0

-1.0

142.2

70,838

61,781

4,897 5,886 -16.8

5,062

20,324 17,863 13.8 20,693

137,900 120,735 14.2 140,600

11,924 9,545 24.9 10,751

-3.3

54,592

59,530 -8.3

59,292

-1.8 230,995 177,430 30.2

255,983

-1.9 1,504,918 1,316,542 14.3 1,660,886

10.9 114,058 112,298 1.6

122,824

-4.4

4,700

4,963

36.5 24,988 21,000

21.9 155,968 136,811

-25.5

8,766 10,369

5 March 2018

5

Tata Motors

CMP: INR371

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

TTMT IN

3395.9

1525/22.8

599 / 376

-4/-21/-7

TP: INR515 (+39%)

Buy

Wholesales of 63.8k units in line with estimate of 64.3k

CV sales grew 30.7% YoY to 45.9k units (in-line)









Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E

Net Sales

2,970 3,354 3,576

EBITDA

375.0 528.4 554.5

NP

94.9 196.6 198.7

Adj. EPS (INR) 28.0 57.9

58.5

EPS Gr. (%)

41.1 107.1

1.1

BV/Sh. (INR) 208.9 268.1 327.8

RoE (%)

14.7 24.3

19.6

RoCE (%)

8.1 12.8

10.7

Valuations

P/E (x)

13.3

6.4

6.3

P/BV (x)

1.8

1.4

1.1

EV/EBITDA (x)

4.0

2.8

2.5

Tata Motors’ Feb-18 sales grew 34% YoY to 63.8k units (in line with est. of 64.3k units).

PV sales increased 43.3% YoY, as car segment volumes grew 16.8% YoY and UV

segment volumes rose 153% YoY due to healthy demand of Nexon.

Total CV volumes increased 30.7% YoY to 45.9k units (in-line), led by an increase in

both LCV and HCV sales by 39.5% and 22.1%, respectively.

The stock trades at 6.4x/6.3x FY19E/20E consol. EPS. Maintain Buy.

Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

Company Sales

Tata Motors

HCV's

LCV's

CV's

Cars

UV's

Feb-18

63,761

21,594

24,308

45,902

11,728

6,131

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

MoM

Growth Monthly Monthly

YoY

MoM

FY18

Feb-17

Jan-18

FY18YTD FY17YTD (%) chg

Gr. (%)

(%)

Run rate Run rate

(%) chg

(%) chg

estimate

47,573 34.0 64,712 -1.5 562,874 485,177 16.0 631,568 16.5

20.2 68,694 51,170

17,681 22.1 18,612 16.0 167,431 155,315 7.8 185,844

5.7

-10.4 18,413 15,221

17,426 39.5 25,774 -5.7 225,884 188,280 20.0 252,430 20.8

28.2 26,546 20,535

35,107 30.7 44,386 3.4 393,315 343,595 14.5 438,274 13.9

9.0 44,959 35,756

10,042 16.8 13,535 -13.4 124,688 123,738 0.8 141,384

3.2

25.7 16,696 11,335

2,424 152.9 6,791 -9.7

44,871 17,844 151.5

51,910 153.9

170.6

7,039

4,079

YoY

5 March 2018

6

Bajaj Auto

CMP: INR3,025

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Financial & Valuation (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E

Sales

249

277

EBITDA

47.3 55.5

Consol. NP

43.5 50.4

ConsEPS(INR) 150

174

EPS Gr. (%)

6.5 15.8

BV/Sh. (INR)

651

725

RoE (%)

24.2 25.3

RoCE (%)

22.0 23.1

Payout (%)

52.0 51.8

Valuation

P/E (x)

20.1 17.4

P/BV (x)

4.6

4.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 12.7

Div. Yield (%)

2.1

2.5

BJAUT IN

289.4

840.6/13.1

3122/2366

2/-6/0





TP: INR4,031 (+33%)

Buy

Feb-18 dispatches at 357.9k units (est. of 344k); +30.8% YoY

Domestic volumes up 34.5% YoY to 214k units (above est. of 198.5k)

BJAUT’s Feb-18 sales increased 30.8% YoY to 357.9k units (est. of 344k units).

Domestic volume increased 34.5% YoY to 214k (est. of 198.5k), while exports rose

25.7% YoY to 143.9k (est. of 145.5k).

Overall motorcycle volumes increased 21.5% YoY. Domestic motorcycle dispatches

increased ~23% YoY to 175.5k units. Motorcycle exports grew ~19% YoY to 122k units.

3W volumes remained strong, increasing 111% YoY overall. Domestic 3W volume

continued its positive trajectory, with growth of 129% YoY to 38.5k units. 3W exports

rose 86% YoY to 21.8k units.

Speaking on monthly volume, Mr S Ravikumar, President, Business Development said,

“As far as domestic motorcycle is concerned, there has been a cause of worry for us a

couple of months back. Now with the Discover twins that have been launched, in the

month of February itself, we have built-out almost about some 27k units in domestic

and with Avengers refreshed and the Cruise 220 is taking the market very nicely,

people are liking it a lot and there again the numbers are kicking in”.

The stock trades at 17.4x/15x FY19E/20E consol. EPS. Maintain Buy.

2020E

314

64.4

58.3

202

15.8

814

26.2

33.3

50.7

15.0

3.7

10.6

2.8







Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

YoY

Company Sales

Bajaj Auto

Motorcycles

Total Two-Wheelers

Three-Wheelers

Domestic

Exports

Feb-18 Feb-17

357,883

297,514

297,514

60,369

214,023

143,860

YoY (%)

chg

273,513 30.8

244,958 21.5

244,958 21.5

28,555 111.4

159,109 34.5

114,404 25.7

MoM

MoM

Jan-18

(%) chg

353,147

1.3

288,936

3.0

288,936

3.0

64,211 -6.0

202,193

5.9

150,954 -4.7

FY18YTD FY17YTD

3,672,443 3,393,667

3,099,395 2,975,697

3,099,395 2,975,697

573,048 417,970

2,140,614 2,085,338

1,531,829 1,308,329

(%)

chg

8.2

4.2

4.2

37.1

2.7

17.1

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

Growth Monthly Monthly

FY18

Gr. (%)

(%) Run rate Run rate

estimate

3,989,803

8.8

16.6 317,360 333,858

3,359,709

4.3

6.6 260,314 281,763

3,359,709

4.3

6.6 260,314 281,763

630,094 41.3

103.4 57,046 52,095

2,330,249

3

12.0 189,635 194,601

1,659,555 17.6

24.0 127,726 139,257

5 March 2018

7

Mahindra & Mahindra

CMP: INR733

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

MM IN

592.6

794.7/12.4

1509 / 1142

3/6/-10

TP: INR884 (+21%)

Buy

Wholesales of 71.6k units above estimate of 66.3k units

UV volume up 16.2% YoY; Tractor volume up 36.5% YoY















Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

470.9 531.0 589.0

EBITDA

58.4 66.8

75.5

NP*

41.3 46.2

52.5

Adj.EPS(INR)* 34.8 38.9

44.2

EPS Gr. (%)

10.3 12.1

13.5

Cons.EPS(INR) 37.7 43.9

48.4

BV/Sh. (INR)

241

268

300

RoE (%)

14.4 14.4

14.7

RoCE (%)

13.2 13.5

13.8

Valuations

P/E (x)

21.1 18.8

16.6

P/BV (x)

3.0

2.7

2.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4 12.4

9.4

*incl. MVML





MM’s volumes grew 23.8% YoY to 71.6k units (est. of 66.3k units), as all segments

reported growth during the month.

Tractors sales increased 36.5% YoY to 20.5k units (est. of 18k units), as domestic and

export volumes increased 39% and 3%, respectively.

UV sales (incl. pick-ups) stood at 44.3k units (+16.2% YoY), above estimate of 42k

units.

Momentum in pick-ups continued with 27.4% YoY growth, while passenger utility

vehicles reported growth of 7.4% YoY.

LCV (>3.5t) sales grew by ~56% YoY and M&HCV sales by 16% YoY.

3W volumes increased ~50% YoY to 5.1k units (est. of 4.5k units).

Speaking on the monthly performance, Rajan Wadhera, President, Automotive Sector,

M&M Ltd. said, “We are happy with our February performance with the business

having registered a growth of 19%. This performance comes on the back of a sustained

momentum and demand, both in the personal and commercial vehicle segments,

which we believe will also continue in the month of March.”

Rajesh Jejurikar, President - Farm Equipment Sector, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. said,

“We have sold 19,280 tractors during February 2018 with a growth of 39% over last

year. With the announcement of record horticulture production and increased Union

budget allocations to rural and agriculture sector, we expect the growth momentum

to continue in the coming months. In the exports market, we have sold 1,203 tractors

during the month."

The stock trades at 18.8x/16.6x FY19E/20E. Maintain Buy.

Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

YoY

Company Sales

Feb-18 Feb-17

YoY

(%) chg

57,833 23.8

38,111 16.2

1,289 33.5

3,426 50.0

15,007 36.5

MoM

MoM

Jan-18

(%) chg

73,923

-3.1

45,611

-2.9

1,693

1.7

4,744

8.3

21,875

-6.4

FY18YTD FY17YTD

775,694 694,547

423,784 391,879

14,781 11,769

48,023 47,244

289,106 243,655

(%)

chg

11.7

8.1

25.6

1.6

18.7

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

Growth Monthly Monthly

FY18

Gr. (%)

(%) Run rate Run rate

estimate

834,430 17.9

346.9 58,736 70,518

461,454

5.5

-17.2 37,670 38,526

16,660 16.2

-26.9

1,879

1,344

53,875

3.0

15.6

5,852

4,366

302,441 15.0

-31.0 13,335 26,282

Mahindra & Mahindra 71,610

UV (incl. pick-ups)

44,268

LCV

1,721

Three-Wheelers

5,138

Tractors

20,483

5 March 2018

8

EICHER Motors

CMP: INR27,735

Stock Info

Bloomberg

EIM IN

Equity Shares (m)

27.2

M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)

644.0/9.6

52-Week Range (INR) 29983/18006

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

6/8/37

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E

Net Income

89.4 107.7 129.5

EBITDA

28.4

35.3

44.1

Net Profit

22.6

28.7

36.3

Adj. EPS (INR) 829.4 1,053.0 1,335.0

EPS Gr. (%)

34.5

27.0

26.8

BV/Sh. (INR) 2,613 3,465 4,570

RoE (%)

36.2

34.6

33.2

RoCE (%)

31.7

30.9

30.7

Payout (%)

0.5

0.6

0.7

Valuations

P/E (x)

33.4

26.3

20.8

P/BV (x)

10.6

8.0

6.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 21.1

16.5

12.9

TP: INR34,764 (+25%)

Buy

RE, VECV Feb-18 dispatches in line

RE volume grew 25% YoY to 73.1k units; VECV volume up 26% YoY to 6.8k

units













RE Feb-18 volume was in line at 73.1k units (+25% YoY).

RE exports of 1.7k units were flat YoY.

VECV's volumes increased 26.3% YoY to 6.8k units (in-line).

Domestic LMD and HD segments grew 40.3% YoY and 13.9% YoY, respectively. Buses

volume declined 22.3% YoY.

VECV exports grew ~84% YoY to 1,013 units (est. of 750 units).

The stock trades at 26.3x/20.8x FY19E/20E consol. EPS. Maintain Buy.

Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

Company Sales

Eicher Motors

Royal Enfield

VECV

Domestic LMD

Domestic HD

Domestic Buses

Total Domestic

Exports

MoM

YoY (%)

(%)

MoM

Feb-18 Feb-17

Jan-18

FY18YTD FY17YTD

chg

chg

(%) chg

73,077

6,796

3,594

1,345

844

5,783

1,013

58,439 25.0

5,379 26.3

2,561 40.3

1,181 13.9

1,086 -22.3

4,828 19.8

551 83.8

77,878

6,712

3,717

1,371

922

6,010

702

-6.2

1.3

-3.3

-1.9

-8.5

-3.8

44.3

744,406 606,377 22.8

55,628 50,353 10.5

28,559 23,080 23.7

10,292

9,463 8.8

9,041 10,453 -13.5

47,892 42,996 11.4

7,736

7,357 5.2

YoY

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

Growth Monthly Monthly

FY18

Gr. (%)

(%) Run rate Run rate

estimate

821,629

64,948

32,395

11,553

11,345

55,293

8,492

23.3

11.0

24.5

4.0

-7.5

9.3

5.7

28.5

14.2

30.2

-23.4

26.8

-2.3

11.5

77,223

9,320

3,836

1,261

2,304

7,401

756

67,673

5,057

2,596

936

822

4,354

703

5 March 2018

9

Hero MotoCorp

CMP: INR3,579

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

HMCL IN

199.7

635/9.5

3813 / 2844

9/-1/4

TP: INR3,986 (+11%)

Neutral

Vols up 20% YoY to 629.6k (above est. of 602.5k)





Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

318.4 351.9 385.4

EBITDA

52.7 56.3

60.3

NP

36.9 40.0

42.6

Adj. EPS (INR) 185.0 200.1 212.6

EPS Gr. (%)

9.4

8.2

6.2

BV/Sh. (INR) 582.8 668.5 752.9

RoE (%)

34.0 32.0

29.9

RoCE (%)

32.8 31.0

29.1

Valuations

P/E (x)

19.4 17.9

16.8

P/BV (x)

6.1

5.4

4.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 11.1

10.3

Div. Yield (%)

2.5

2.7

2.9



HMCL’s Feb-18 volumes of 629,597 units (+20% YoY) were above our estimates of

602.5k units.

The company showcased its premium motorcycle ‘XPulse’ and its new range of 125cc

scooters ‘Maestro Edge 125’ and ‘Duet 125’ at Auto Expo 2018. It had also unveiled its

premium motorcycle ‘Xtreme 200R’ recently. These products would be available in the

market over the next few months.

HMCL trades at 17.9/16.8x FY19E/20E EPS. Maintain Neutral.

Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

Company Sales

Hero MotoCorp

MoM

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

Growth Monthly Monthly

YoY (%)

(%)

FY18

MoM

Feb-18 Feb-17

FY18YTD FY17YTD

Jan-18

Gr. (%)

(%) Run rate Run rate

chg

chg estimate

(%) chg

629,597 524,766 20.0 641,501 -1.9 6,852,384 6,053,952 13.2 7,505,752 12.6

7.1 653,368 622,944

YoY

5 March 2018

10

Ashok Leyland

CMP: INR141

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

AL IN

2,845.9

254.0/3.8

112 / 74

3/3/-29

TP: INR158 (+12%)

Buy

Dispatches in line at 18.2k units

MHCVs grew 21.2% YoY, while LCVs rose 62.7% YoY









Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

251.7 288.7 330.0

EBITDA

26.0 31.3

36.1

NP

14.4 18.2

22.6

Adj. EPS (INR)

4.9

6.2

7.7

EPS Gr. (%)

16.2 26.7

24.0

BV/Sh. (INR)

23.4 26.9

31.6

RoE (%)

22.1 24.7

26.4

RoCE (%)

18.6 20.9

22.7

Valuations

P/E (x)

28.7 22.6

18.3

P/BV (x)

6.0

5.2

4.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.4 12.3

10.2

Div. Yield (%)

1.4

1.6

1.8

AL’s Feb-18 wholesale dispatches were in-line at 18.2k units (+29.2% YoY).

M&HCV volumes, which account for 75% of total volumes, grew 21.2% YoY (+0.6%

MoM) to 13.7k units (est. of 13.5k units).

LCVs (Dost) grew 62.7% YoY to 4.5k units (est. of 4.4k).

The stock trades at 22.6x/18.3x FY19E/20E EPS, and at 12.3x/10.2x EV/EBITDA.

Maintain Buy.

Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

YoY

Company Sales

Ashok Leyland

CV (ex LCV)

LCV

Feb-18

18,181

13,726

4,455

Feb-17

YoY (%)

chg

14,067 29.2

11,329 21.2

2,738 62.7

MoM

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

Growth Monthly Monthly

(%)

FY18

MoM

FY18YTD FY17YTD

Gr. (%)

Jan-18

(%) Run rate Run rate

chg estimate

(%) chg

18,101

0.4 152,378 126,383 20.6

170,394 17.5

-3.6 18,016 13,853

13,643

0.6 114,333 98,037 16.6

127,904 12.9

-11.0 13,571 10,394

4,458

-0.1

38,045 28,346 34

42,490 33.7

29.7

4,445

3,459

5 March 2018

11

TVS Motor

CMP: INR 677

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

TP: INR741 (10%)

Neutral

TVSL IN

475.1

Domestic sales grew by 34% YoY, exports up 53.2% YoY

235.5/3.7

549 / 280



Wholesales of 290.7k units (+37.5% YoY) were above estimate of 272k.

4/31/69















Feb-18 wholesales up 37.5% YoY to 290.7k units

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

150.5 187.9 225.4

EBITDA

11.7 19.1

24.9

Adj. PAT

6.6 11.9

16.1

EPS (INR)

13.9 25.1

33.9

EPS Gr. (%)

18.5 80.5

34.9

BV/Sh (INR)

61.0 81.3 109.2

RoE (%)

24.9 35.3

35.6

RoCE (%)

25.4 37.9

42.1

Payout (%)

25.9 19.1

17.7

Valuations

P/E (x)

48.6 26.9

20.0

P/BV (x)

11.1

8.3

6.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 28.4 17.1

12.7

Div. Yield (%)

0.4

0.6

0.7

Domestic volumes grew 34% YoY, while exports (20% of volumes) rose 53.2% YoY.

Motorcycle volumes grew 92% YoY to 113.3k units (est. of 95k units).

Scooter volumes increased 35.6% YoY to 93.6k units (est. of 87k units).

Moped dispatches declined 5.3% YoY to 74.1k units (est. of 81k).

3W volumes increased 86.3% YoY, with growth across domestic and export sales.

Total exports grew 53.2% YoY, led by growth in 2W and 3W exports.

The stock trades at 26.9x/20x FY19E/20E EPS. Maintain Neutral.

Snapshot of volumes for Feb-18

YoY

Company Sales

TVS Motor

Motorcycles

Scooters

Mopeds

Three-Wheelers

Total Domestic

Total Exports

Feb-18

290,673

113,296

93,573

74,073

9,731

232,109

58,564

Feb-17

YoY

(%) chg

211,470 37.5

58,994 92.0

69,020 35.6

78,233 -5.3

5,223 86.3

173,255 34.0

38,215 53.2

MoM

Residual Residual FY18 YTD

Growth Monthly Monthly

FY18

MoM

Jan-18

FY18YTD FY17YTD (%) chg

Gr. (%)

(%) Run rate Run rate

estimate

(%) chg

271,801 6.9 3,139,451 2,667,617 17.7 3,450,117 18.0

21.8 310,666 285,405

98,649 14.8 1,221,164 981,415 24.4 1,341,918 25.1

32.6 120,754 111,015

85,521 9.4 1,033,946 785,926 31.6 1,159,720 33.2

48.1 125,774 93,995

78,825 -6.0 796,551 836,384 -4.8 851,454

-6.5

-25.9 54,903 72,414

8,806 10.5

87,790 63,892 37.4

97,025 40.1

72.2

9,235

7,981

228,999 1.4 2,624,864 2,281,120 15.1 2,885,804 15.5

19.8 260,940 238,624

42,802 36.8 514,587 386,497 33.1 564,313 32.5

26.6 49,726 46,781

5 March 2018

12

Laurus Labs

BSE SENSEX

34,047

S&P CNX

10,458

3 March 2018

Update

| Sector:

Healthcare

CMP: INR533



TP: INR613 (+15%)

Buy

USFDA compliance intact; Approval to start US sales

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

M.Cap. (INR b)

M.Cap. (USD b)

Avg Val, INRm

Free float (%)

LAURUS IN

106

634 / 485

5/-8/-14

57.1

0.9

97.0

69.4



The two positive events for Laurus were Zero 483 at its recent USFDA inspection and

first product approval (g-Viread) from Unit II.

Based on competition and price erosion, we expect Laurus to make USD2-3m from

this product on annualized basis. On overall basis, we expect Laurus to garner US

sales of NR1.3b by FY20 from INR20m in FY17.

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

FY18E FY19E FY20E

Y/E Mar

Net Sales

20.9

25.3

29.2

EBITDA

4.3

5.7

6.8

PAT

2.0

3.1

3.8

EPS (INR)

19.0

29.1

35.7

Gr. (%)

7.0

53.1

22.6

BV/Sh (INR)

144.5 173.0 208.0

RoE (%)

14.1

18.3

18.8

RoCE (%)

11.1

14.1

14.8

P/E (x)

27.9

18.3

14.9

P/BV (x)

3.7

3.1

2.6

Shareholding pattern (%)

As On

Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16

Promoter

30.6

30.6

30.6

DII

40.2

41.4

44.4

FII

10.5

10.7

9.1

Others

18.8

17.3

15.9

FII Includes depository receipts

Stock Performance (1-year)

Laurus Labs

Sensex - Rebased

680

Successful Inspection at Unit II (formulation) implies consistency in compliance

and minimal regulatory hurdle:

Laurus successfully cleared recent USFDA

inspection at unit II (formulation) with Zero observations. Facility was inspected

during 26 Feb-1 Mar 2018. USFDA inspection at this facility has been after period of

~one year three months. Till date, unit II has been inspected twice by USFDA and

Laurus has been able to clear it successfully with Establishment Inspection Report

(EIR) in place for previous inspection. Laurus has faced nine inspections successfully

at its different facilities, which implies consistency in regulatory compliance and

minimal regulatory hurdle over medium term. This is commendable given the

scenario, wherein, peers are facing regulatory hurdle to the extent that either

existing business is stopped and/or new approvals have been halted by USFDA.

Laurus to start US sales from maiden approval and subsequent

commercialization:

Laurus also received its first USFDA approval for g-Viread

(Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate, TDF) tablets. A TDF tablet is used for treatment of

HIV-1 infection in adults and pediatric patients. The market size of g-Viread is about

~USD1b. Laurus is sixth company to receive final approval for this product in past

two months. Laurus had tentative approval in place. Post patent expiry on 25

January 2018, the final approval was awaited as there was neither any ANDA

specific query pending nor any regulatory issues related to manufacturing. Post

launch by five companies, price erosion has led market size to shrink considerably.

Based on number of competitors and price erosion, we expect Laurus to garner

USD2-3m on annualized basis.

Laurus on track to build robust ANDA pipeline for US market:

LAURUS has filed

eight ANDAs (4 own, 4 with partners). It has target action date (TAD) spread over

CY18 on three products. Laurus intend to file 8-10 ANDAs annually over next 2-3

years, taking cumulative filing to 30. We expect share of US formulation to increase

from INR20m in FY17 to INR1.3b by FY20.

Valuation and view:

We remain positive on Laurus due to additional business from

tender awards in ARV space, new customer addition, increased traction in

Synthesis/ ingredient business and product launches in US. We expect Laurus to

deliver 17% CAGR in sales and 28% CAGR in PAT to INR30b and INR4b over FY17-

20. We value Laurus at 18x (20% premium to midcap average multiple of 15x) 12M

forward earnings to arrive at price target of INR613. Re-iterate Buy on the stock.

610

540

470

400

5 March 2018

13

Exhibit 1:

Revenue share of US formulation…

FY17

Synthesis

6%

FDF Ingredients

3%

0%

Exhibit 2:

…to increase gradually

FY20

Synthesis

11%

FDF

5%

Ingredients

3%

API

91%

Source: MOSL, Company

API

81%

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 3:

We expect 17% CAGR in sales

Total Revenue (INR b)

Growth % (YoY)

25.3

29.2

Exhibit 4:

Superior product mix to drive EBITDA margin

EBITDA Margin

20.4

18.0

15.1

21.4

22.7

20.4

23.3

61.4

11.6

13.3

14.4

17.8

34.0

19.0

20.9

7.1

9.7 21.0

15.4

Source: MOSL, Company

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 5:

Capex intensity to remain stable over few

Exhibit 6:

ROE to improve with better utilization and

years

Capex (INRm)

3,635

2,927

1,198

3,025

2,750

2,500

2,500

product mix

ROE (%)

ROE (%)

16.9

12.6

17.4

14.1

18.3

18.8

Source: MOSL, Company

Source: MOSL, Company

5 March 2018

14

Rain Industries

BSE SENSEX

34,184

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Avg Val, INRm

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,493

RINDL IN

336

128.1 / 2.0

476 / 85

-4/159/329

850.0

58.9

1 March 2018

Results Update | Sector: Metals

CMP: INR381

TP: INR480(+26%)

Buy

Carbon prices and margins continue to improve

Interest and tax rate declining; Maintain Buy

Rain Industries’ (RAIN) 4QCY17 EBITDA increased 2% QoQ (+58% YoY) to

INR6.9b. Prices increased across products, but carbon product dispatches were

impacted by shipment delays toward the end of the quarter. Adj. PAT increased

37% QoQ to INR3.3b, led by a lower effective tax rate (~21% v/s ~40% in

3QCY17). Exceptional charges include INR0.8b gain from reversal in deferred tax

(due to US and Belgium tax rate changes), offset by INR1.1b toward refinancing

and unabsorbed bond amortization charges.



Carbon – margins improved but shipments delayed:

Volumes fell ~10% QoQ

to 744kt. CPC realization increased by USD78 QoQ to USD415/t and CTP

realization by USD107 to USD708/t. EBITDA/t rose USD15 QoQ to USD133.



Chemical:

Volumes were largely unchanged QoQ at 53kt. Although EBITDA/t

increased USD20 QoQ, it was subdued due to a squeeze in spreads.



Cement – pricing pressure continues:

Sales were largely unchanged QoQ at

509kt. Realization declined 4% QoQ to INR4,173/t. EBITDA/t decreased 3%

QoQ to INR515.



USD25-30m savings on refinancing.

Net debt increased by INR5b YoY to

INR69b due to a massive increase in working capital and appreciation of EUR

against INR. Refinancing of ~USD489m debt is likely to save USD25-30m

every year.



Positive outlook:

CPC business remains strong on declining exports from

China, while CTP is benefitting from consolidation and capacity reduction in

its key markets. Chemical business is likely to turnaround in 2HCY18. Tax rate

is likely to be 200-300bp lower on a reduction in rates in the US and Belgium.



Maintain Buy

:

The stock trades at 8.4x P/E and 5.5x EV/EBITDA on CY19E.

We value the stock at INR480/share (Exhibit 2). Maintain

Buy.

v/s

Est.

%

-3

-6

-1

7

-18

-11

-17

-42

-6

160

1

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Dec

2017 2018E

Sales

113.0

148.9

EBITDA

22.7

29.3

NP

8.6

13.7

Adj. EPS (INR)

25.6

40.6

EPS Gr(%)

165.9

58.6

BV/Sh. (INR)

117.3

155.5

RoE (%)

24.7

29.8

RoCE (%)

19.5

26.9

P/E (x)

14.9

9.4

P/BV

3.2

2.5

2019E

163.6

31.1

15.0

44.6

9.8

197.6

25.2

27.9

8.5

1.9

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) – INR million

Y/E December

Net Sales

Change (YoY %)

EBITDA

As % of Net Sales

Interest

Depreciation

Other Income

PBT (before EO Inc.)

EO Income(exp)

PBT (after EO Inc.)

Total Tax

% Tax

Reported PAT

Less: Min. Int. & assc.

Adjusted PAT

Change (YoY %)

1Q

21,617

-15

1,997

9.2

1,484

817

171

-133

0

-133

-432

324.5

299

6

293

-23.9

CY16

CY17

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

25,315 22,400 23,831 24,680 26,371 30,508 31,448

-4

-17

1

14

4

36

32

4,441 4,536

4,347 4,414 4,678 6,738 6,872

17.5

20.2

18.2

17.9

17.7

22.1

21.9

1,513 1,430

1,440 1,536 1,483 1,463 1,465

862

855

927 1,366 1,295 1,335 1,260

322

159

53

206

475

256

198

2,388 2,410

2,032 1,718 2,375 4,195 4,345

162

-224

-933

-670

0

0

-302

2,550 2,185

1,099 1,048 2,375 4,195 4,043

987

466

626

400

819 1,662

868

38.7

21.3

57.0

38.2

34.5

39.6

21.5

1,563 1,719

473

647 1,556 2,534 3,175

-2

42

-19

55

41

78

103

1,403 1,901

1,425 1,263 1,515 2,456 3,374

-12.3

45.7 -1,960.0 331.5

8.0

29.2 136.8

CY16

CY17

4QE

32,300

36

7,302

22.6

1,483

1,175

242

4,887

0

4,887

1,496

30.6

3,390

40

3,351

211.1

93,164 113,007

-9

21

15,321 22,702

16.4

20.1

5,867

5,947

3,461

5,256

704

1,134

6,697 12,633

-996

-973

5,701 11,661

1,648

3,749

28.9

32.1

4,053

7,912

69

285

4,980

8,599

55.1

72.7

5 March 2018

15

Fortis Healthcare

BSE SENSEX

34,047

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Avg Val, INRm

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,047

FORH IN

463.1

65.0 / 1.0

231 / 107

15/1/-35

1120.0

65.6

1 March 2018

Q3FY18 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare

CMP: INR161



TP: INR185 (+15%)

Buy

2Q in-line, but a miss in 3Q; Entry of third-party key for re-rating

Fortis Healthcare (FORH) reported 2QFY18/3QFY18 revenue of INR12b (flat

YoY)/INR11.2b (-1.1% YoY), with EBIDTA margin of 8.9%/4.6%. Hospital

business revenue came in at INR9.7b (-0.6% YoY)/INR9b (-0.9% YoY) for

2QFY18/3QFY18, with EBITDA margin of 8.5%/5.5%. SRL reported revenue of

INR2.2b (+5.2% YoY)/INR2.1b (+10% YoY), with EBITDA margin of 23.2%/18.4%.

2Q numbers were in line, but 3Q numbers missed our expectations. FORH

reported a loss of INR236m/INR191m in 2Q/3QFY18.

Promoter stake down to <1% due to invocation of pledged shares:

Promoter

holding is now down to 0.8% from ~34% in Dec-17 due to invocation of pledged

shares. Yes Bank now is the largest shareholder, with more than 17% stake in

the company. Post invocation of pledge shares, banks and financial institutions

(Yes bank, Axis bank, Indiabulls) have the right to sell their shares to a third

party, which can eventually become the promoter of the company.

Auditors have raised serious issues:

Auditors have raised red flags on related-

party loans and inter-corporate deposits (details provided below).

Consequently, they were unable to express conclusion regarding the financial

statements. Notably, FORH needs to recover loan of ~INR4.7b from promoter

entity. Management responded that it is confident about recovering this loan,

but we see this as a concern, given the financial health of the promoter entity.

SEBI investigation is ongoing related to this issue.

Entry of third-party key for re-rating:

FORH’s stock has remained volatile in the

recent past on the back of news flow related to issues with the current

promoter and possibility of equity infusion in the company. Given that current

promoter holding is marginal, banks/financial institutes may look to find a new

investor, which could lead to stock re-rating. We have valued the hospital and

diagnostic business based on 20x and 18x 1HFY20E EV/EBITDA, respectively.

We cut EBITDA by 26%/9% for FY19/20E as we build in slower margin ramp-up.

FY17E

FY18E

FY17 FY18E FY18E

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4QE

3QE

11,957 11,334 11,234 11,566 11,972 11,207 12,242 45,737 46,986 13,034

10.9

8.9

3.2

3.2

0.1

-1.1

9.0

7.8

2.7

15.0

10,968 10,211 10,444 10,705 10,907 10,691 11,157 42,208 43,460 11,587

990 1,123

790

861 1,065

516 1,085 3,529 3,527 1,447

8.3

9.9

7.0

7.4

8.9

4.6

8.9

7.7

7.5

11.1

517

599

630

590

607

590

563 2,222 2,350

780

461

748

666

644

660

632

464 2,294 2,400

500

380

589

361

576

371

426 -1,073 1,660

300

75

393

365

-146

203

169

-280 -1,015

673

-923

242

-9 -4,194

8

6

468

2

0

16

0

0

402 4,559

-153

197

-299

-282 -1,015

657

-923

242

242

190

263

123

170

26

-623

724

-305

80

60.2

4.2 -171.7

62.1

-56.8

-9.2

61.4 110.3

33.0

33.0

-154

-165

-41

-151

-233

-117

258 -4,861

-243

-61

314 4,533

-375

226

-236

-191

-650 4,793

-375

223

310

514

-354

228

497

-189

-650 4,792

-375

223

-62.6 -193.1

-61.0

41.1

60.3 -136.7

83.4 460.3 -107.8

-56.7

2.6

4.5

-3.2

2.0

4.2

-1.7

-5.3

10.5

-0.8

1.7

Var

%

-14

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2018E 2019E 2020E

Net Sales

47.0

52.6

60.5

EBITDA

3.5

5.6

8.8

PAT

-0.4

1.3

3.4

EPS (INR)

-0.8

2.8

7.3

-107.8 -440.1 164.5

Gr. (%)

BV/Sh INR

122.3 125.1 132.3

RoE (%)

-0.7

2.2

5.7

RoCE (%)

1.4

3.1

5.5

P/E (x)

N/A

58.3

22.1

P/BV (x)

1.3

1.3

1.2





Estimate change

TP change

Rating change



Consolidated – Quarterly Earning Model

Y/E March

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

Total Expenditure

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT before EO expense

Extra-Ord expense

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

MI & P/L of Asso. Cos.

Reported PAT

Adj PAT

YoY Change (%)

Margins (%)

E: MOSL Estimates

1Q

11,212

8.4

10,585

626

5.6

476

420

330

61

0

61

29

47.3

-130

162

162

-82.6

1.4

-64

-186

5 March 2018

16

In conversation

1. REPCO HOME FINANCE : Expect recoveries in both NPAS of

home loans & lap; R Varadarajan, MD













Asset quality deteriorated during Q3. Was not at the expected level but seeing

good amount of recovering happening during the current quarter.

Putting all efforts to bring down the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) from

the level of 3.7 percent to 2.5 percent. Believe it is doable.

Seeing recoveries happening in LAP segment as well and should be able to show

good improvement there also.

For the current quarter, company is expecting sequential and year-on-year

improvement in the disbursements. But FY19 and FY20 disbursement and loan

growth will be around 20-25 percent.

ALM as of now is very comfortable. Almost all banks are providing funding at

MCLR rate.

Very strongly believe that spread will be maintained.

2. ASHOKA BUILDCON : Macquarie-Ashoka bags Rs 9,700 crore

order; Satish Parakh, MD









TOT is first of its kind and Macquarie has bid for this project. Company will be

operations and maintenance (O&M) partner in this project. So company’s part

will be engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) to the tune of Rs 1,025

crore in first two years and likely to get O&M for the next 30 years.

Another hybrid-annuity model project is Rs 860 crore project to be completed in

two years’ time. Margin from project in partnership with Macquarie will be at

12-13 percent.

Have significant number of projects lined up for the next two quarters.

Will look at bidding for more hybrid annuity model projects.

3. BAJAJ AUTO: Sees robust sales for march; export markets

doing well; S Ravikumar, President - Business Development









Almost all the export markets like Africa, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Philippines are

doing well. New markets are also adding good numbers. Only Columbia seems

to be a dull spot.

Star performer remains the domestic commercial vehicles at 38,000 plus units.

Higher permits in the 3-wheeler space aided sales growth.

Domestic two-wheeler sales were a cause of worry couple of months back but

with new Discover twins, the sales went up to 27000 units this month.

Moreover, with refreshed Avengers and Cruise 220 the numbers are ticking

higher.

Confident of domestic motorcycle sales touching 2 lakh units per month going

forward.

5 March 2018

17

4. RBL BANK : Expect resolution in some stressed assets seen in

Q3FY18; Rajeev Ahuja, ED















Have enough on banks’s plate in terms of business engines. Reaching inflection

points - see great opportunities.

Have grown between 30 percent and 35 percent in all businesses over the last

nine months in a challenging environment.

On Can Fin Homes, there is a sell-down process on but haven’t yet ventured into

the housing segment.

Don’t want to do the large urban housing ticket sizes but in the smaller housing,

bank is interested. Have set up a team to evaluate how Can Fin’s business

shapes up.

Not focused on gold loans as a very large product.

May build a gold loan but nothing right now. The idea is not to acquire

something which is so alien to what bank is prepared to handle.

The December numbers were impacted by one-two specific things which banks

see resolution of. As the microfinance institutions (MFIs) problems get fully

absorbed, should see that dropping overall GNPA.

5. CIPLA : Revenue is a challenge for us; little concerned about

revenue growth; Umang Vohra, MD & Global CEO











Operationally teams have rallied around, tried to improve the outcomes

company has in some key markets.

Have made a couple of definitive shifts – have restructured bio and Europe.

Revenue is a challenge. Little concerned about revenue and where company

could grow them.

Have to factor in disruptions. Something or the other will happen every quarter.

Businesses have to adapt to the same.

India is a sizeable market for company. Growth story is intact in core markets.

Not unduly concerned about growth trajectories within core markets.

5 March 2018

18

From the think tank

1. Indian economy bouncing back, but still not high enough



The Indian economy has been short of good news recently. So the latest GDP

growth figures, released on Wednesday, come as a bit of a relief: The economy

grew at 7.2% in the last three months of 2017, slightly faster than expected. For

the entire financial year—due to end on 31 March—the government’s statisticians

now estimate growth of around 6.6%. This is lower than the 7.5% growth

registered in 2016-17 but, given that in previous quarters of the current financial

year growth was 5.7% and then 6.5%, it’s safe to conclude that the growth

slowdown plaguing India has bottomed out. Still, few will be celebrating. For one,

the slowdown India has endured has been largely self-inflicted. A bad-debt crisis,

an inexplicable decision to ban cash holdings overnight and then a poorly planned

rollout of the new goods and services tax (GST) combined to push Indian growth

well below 6%. It’s hard to cheer a recovery when you shouldn’t have had

anything to recover from in the first place.

2. Taking stock two years after AIIB’S opening



The third annual meeting of the board of governors of the Asian Infrastructure

Investment Bank (AIIB) is scheduled to be held in Mumbai in June. This is fitting;

India is the AIIB’s second-largest shareholder and is also a major recipient of

loans from the bank. The largest shareholder, China, hosted the first annual

meeting in 2016 and the second was hosted by South Korea last year. And with

the bank completing two years since its formal opening in January, it’s a good

time to assess how it has shaped up. The multilateral development bank (MDB)

was established in January 2016 with its headquarters located in Beijing. At the

launch of the AIIB, there were 57 prospective founding members (including

India) and 20 from outside the region (including France Germany, Italy and the

UK). The membership stands at 84 as of end 2017 (the US and Japan being

notably absent).

3. India’s waste management problem



To anyone tuned into Davos last month, Indian leaders presented an impressive

picture of a country open for business. “If you want wealth with wellness, come to

India”, was the message. For those closer to the ground, however, the quality of

life in India’s towns and cities seems distinctly suspect. Here is one important

aspect of this: India generates over 150,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste (MSW)

per day, with Mumbai being the world’s fifth most wasteful city. Yet, only 83% of

waste is collected and less than 30% is treated. According to the World Bank,

India’s daily waste generation will reach 377,000 tonnes by 2025. Blame

urbanization and industrialization, but the consequences of India’s megacities

producing tonnes of waste are tangible and troubling.

5 March 2018

19

4. India is doing well on financial inclusion



Poverty, said Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, is not merely lowness of income, but

deprivation of basic capabilities. This is a fair point. An inclusive financial ecosystem

is quintessential to the social contract. It surmounts both physical and, more

importantly, psychological barriers, and helps achieve sustainable economic

growth. But it doesn’t need a Nobel laureate to underline the ramifications of

excluding large swathes from the development process. It is gratifying that our

policymakers are seized of this imperative and have been working along multiple

avenues to address this. Appropriate frameworks have been, and are being,

designed. And, complementing the focused efforts of the government, the Reserve

Bank of India (RBI) is propagating financial literacy, which lends sustainability to the

inclusion process.

International

5. Fed chairman jerome powell: a seminal debut



The world of asset markets heard the new US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome

Powell for the first time on Tuesday. It did not like what it heard. But, they were

music to my ears. He said: “After easing substantially during 2017, financial

conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing. At this point,

we do not see these developments as weighing heavily on the outlook for

economic activity, the labour market, and inflation. The FOMC will continue to

strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE

price inflation to 2% on a sustained basis.” Powell’s prepared remarks were

rather brief but telling. He does not think that financial market volatility will

have a big bearing on economic activity.

5 March 2018

20

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

TP

Valuation snapshot

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja

Ashok Ley.

Bajaj Auto

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

Eicher Mot.

Endurance Tech.

Escorts

Exide Ind

Hero Moto

M&M

Mahindra CIE

Maruti Suzuki

Motherson Sumi

Tata Motors

TVS Motor

Aggregate

Banks - Private

AU Small Finance

Axis Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Hold.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

IDFC Bank

IndusInd

J&K Bank

Kotak Mah. Bk

RBL Bank

South Indian

Yes Bank

Aggregate

Banks - PSU

BOB

BOI

Canara

Indian Bk

PNB

SBI

Union Bk

Aggregate

NBFCs

Aditya Birla Cap

Bajaj Fin.

Capital First

Cholaman.Inv.&F

n

Dewan Hsg.

GRUH Fin.

HDFC

HDFC Stand. Life

Reco

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

% Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

Down-

(INR) (INR)

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

side

813

141

3025

783

18676

1581

27735

1340

885

209

3579

733

237

8876

320

371

677

1035

158

4031

880

21951

1899

34764

1540

714

268

3986

884

303

10972

437

515

741

27

12

33

12

18

20

25

15

-19

28

11

21

28

24

37

39

9

28.3

4.9

150.3

20.2

459.1

63.1

829.4

28.2

36.6

8.0

185.0

37.7

9.6

275.6

8.1

28.0

13.9

34.7

41.4

6.2

7.7

174.1 201.6

26.8

35.2

595.2 731.7

84.7 111.7

1,053.0 1,335.0

38.5

51.3

45.6

54.9

10.2

11.6

200.1 212.6

43.9

48.4

12.2

15.1

369.9 471.3

12.5

17.5

57.9

58.5

25.1

33.9

0.9

7.8

6.5

54.2

-3.0

-32.3

34.5

20.1

90.4

-1.3

9.4

37.8

107.8

10.8

5.0

41.1

18.5

19.9

-42.8

-4.4

5.3

-81.6

13.3

18.0

-18.3

0.4

27.0

LP

22.0

33.0

-22.6

24.8

15.6

182.1

Loss

-33.0

16.4

-8.8

978.7

PL

-72.8

NA

42.3

38.9

34.5

26.5

22.1

8.0

5.4

22.7

26.7

15.8

32.7

29.6

34.1

27.0

36.7

24.3

27.5

8.2

16.4

27.2

34.2

54.7

107.1

80.5

45.2

43.9

111.4

22.2

616.0

19.1

20.3

32.0

7.0

29.2

41.6

26.9

43.7

97.1

31.2

35.1

70.7

LP

196.8

19.3

49.5

459.4

LP

2,102

45.2

35.4

30.2

18.7

26.8

18.8

14.0

13.9

19.4

24.0

15.8

31.5

22.9

31.9

26.8

33.2

20.6

13.6

6.2

10.1

23.9

27.4

39.6

1.1

34.9

15.1

28.8

28.7

20.1

38.8

40.7

25.0

33.4

47.5

24.1

26.1

19.4

19.4

24.7

32.2

39.6

13.3

48.6

25.0

23.4

22.6

17.4

29.3

31.4

18.7

26.3

34.8

19.4

20.4

17.9

16.7

19.4

24.0

25.6

6.4

26.9

17.2

39.1

16.9

18.0

22.0

14.5

23.3

18.5

16.1

21.5

5.5

26.4

21.3

6.9

13.4

19.9

8.3

99.4

7.8

7.8

11.9

14.6

17.4

13.8

30.5

26.9

15.0

19.8

11.3

45.4

37.0

83.9

4.6

6.0

4.6

7.6

5.9

2.4

10.6

9.2

3.6

3.3

6.1

3.0

2.4

6.5

7.1

1.8

11.1

4.5

7.4

2.0

2.0

2.2

1.5

4.1

2.3

1.1

4.4

0.7

4.4

3.1

1.0

2.9

2.9

0.9

0.6

0.6

1.0

0.6

1.2

0.5

0.8

4.3

5.8

2.5

4.4

1.9

16.2

5.0

3.0

4.0

5.2

4.2

6.3

5.3

2.2

8.0

7.6

3.1

2.9

5.4

2.7

2.1

5.6

6.0

1.4

8.3

3.7

6.2

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.4

3.6

2.1

1.1

3.7

0.6

3.8

2.8

0.9

2.5

2.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.9

0.5

1.1

0.4

0.8

3.3

4.9

2.2

3.7

1.7

13.3

4.3

2.5

17.3

22.1

24.2

21.0

15.2

10.1

36.2

21.0

17.2

12.6

34.0

14.4

10.4

19.8

19.2

14.7

24.9

17.9

14.1

5.9

10.1

1.4

9.4

16.7

8.1

6.8

17.0

8.9

13.2

12.2

6.9

17.6

11.0

18.3

24.7

25.3

23.5

17.9

12.3

34.6

23.9

17.3

14.4

32.0

14.4

11.7

22.8

25.4

24.3

35.3

21.7

17.2

11.1

10.4

9.5

9.8

16.6

10.1

6.9

19.1

11.9

14.3

13.8

12.7

19.9

13.3

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

597 705

526 710

162 188

146 205

94

149

1878 2350

305 405

52

65

1697 2076

67

100

1096 1220

485 680

26

38

321 410

18

35

16

41

58

25

33

26

22

50

11

40

46

28

10.6

14.7

7.4

0.9

5.5

67.0

12.5

3.0

61.1

8.6

32.7

15.8

1.9

18.2

15.3

31.0

9.0

6.6

6.5

80.6

16.5

3.2

78.9

12.2

41.5

22.7

3.8

23.9

21.6

44.6

10.9

10.2

8.2

100.9

21.0

3.9

101.4

16.8

54.2

30.3

4.9

30.8

41.1 56.2

43.7 35.8

21.4 22.0

53.4 157.3

26.1 17.2

25.2 28.0

27.6 24.4

21.9 17.2

28.5 27.8

37.7 7.8

30.5 33.5

33.2 30.7

30.4 13.6

28.8 17.6

29.8 26.9

42.0

222.3

89.1

14.5

84.7

65.3

158.0

71.3

42.4

34.2

27.5

21.5

26.1

23.4

16.3

25.2

14.2

NM

23.1

9.3

17.8

81.8

NM

304.4

44.2

36.4

19.5

23.5

14.3

53.9

42.1

95.6

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

138

113

291

317

101

263

104

185

150

415

430

215

375

145

34

33

43

36

113

43

40

9.8

-15.6

12.6

34.1

5.7

3.2

-40.5

16.7

1.1

37.3

40.6

8.5

18.0

5.9

23.7

3.7

70.6

46.5

15.7

29.7

15.3

2.0

5.5

-6.5 0.6

2.3

6.8

10.8 11.9

2.9

4.3

1.6

8.4

-16.7 2.7

0.3

5.7

12.6

20.1

13.7

20.4

14.0

32.9

17.6

21.7

12.4

19.8

15.6

20.2

15.8

32.2

16.5

21.1

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

163 225

1658 2330

669 960

1452 1520

537 720

535 540

1813 2260

451 485

38

41

44

5

34

1

25

8

3.7

45.6

34.2

61.8

37.4

9.9

43.0

4.7

5.3

61.7

44.6

73.3

47.5

11.8

49.0

5.4

7.6

82.8

56.8

89.1

59.9

14.6

57.0

6.7

5 March 2018

21

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

Company

Reco

TP

% Upside

EPS (INR)

Down-

FY18E FY19E FY20E

side

30

91.1 105.1 128.3

48

7.4

11.0

13.5

20

38.5 44.3

52.6

26

18.6 24.2

30.0

34

13.9 19.2

23.0

22

43.8 44.8

49.3

45

51.4 69.0

92.3

29

33.4 39.0

46.0

25

31

114.2 140.0 166.8

78.7

104.8 125.9

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

Valuation snapshot

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) (INR)

1258 1630

162 240

507 608

594 750

428 575

388 475

1210 1750

572 740

2006 2500

1338 1750

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

32.8

42.2

0.6

24.0

95.8

48.1

62.4

14.6

35.4

42.1

28.2

12.1

12.6

123.6

36.0

9.8

-72.2

-12.4

84.1

19.4

35.5

15.7

10.9

18.4

-7.4

76.0

16.4

17.2

29.5

31.3

-69.0

41.2

-47.5

-33.4

31.8

34.7

-10.8

LP

713.3

LP

102.0

10.0

-7.4

-7.7

2.7

14.3

12.9

4.5

-9.6

10.6

15.4

47.1

15.2

29.6

38.7

2.3

34.4

16.8

22.6

33.1

22.8

52.0

12.0

-2.6

48.2

26.1

63.3

34.6

9.6

21.6

16.6

18.8

53.8

21.5

21.4

4.9

12.4

19.9

38.4

31.1

378.7

41.5

235.5

101.9

27.3

97.2

25.3

66.8

113.1

101.0

53.5

3.0

53.0

74.3

18.8

24.8

17.9

19.2

30.5

15.1

22.1

23.2

18.7

24.1

19.4

10.2

33.7

18.1

19.2

20.2

22.6

16.2

6.3

37.5

26.9

18.4

58.8

18.6

13.9

24.1

28.5

19.2

13.8

23.7

12.5

10.3

13.8

18.8

13.8

21.8

13.2

31.9

30.8

8.9

23.6

17.1

17.6

17.0

28.7

77.1

21.6

30.3

45.6

45.4

71.9

34.6

39.6

44.8

25.5

26.8

58.4

41.8

42.4

16.5

34.3

32.4

12.0

14.8

11.4

24.6

22.2

8.7

17.5

14.7

14.3

12.8

23.3

50.7

19.3

31.1

30.8

36.0

44.0

25.7

36.1

36.8

21.9

22.6

38.0

34.4

34.9

15.8

30.6

27.0

30.3

26.3

21.4

35.4

9.8

20.8

18.1

23.2

24.3

29.3

26.7

19.1

13.2

38.1

30.5

24.1

43.7

47.0

37.4

36.0

34.5

44.8

3.9

3.2

2.0

4.5

2.9

2.0

3.3

2.7

2.3

2.4

4.3

9.0

3.9

1.0

9.0

19.9

1.2

5.6

8.8

8.7

5.5

3.4

5.3

7.7

4.9

2.7

5.5

3.6

2.5

3.4

2.1

4.5

1.7

0.9

3.5

3.4

4.2

3.2

6.1

2.4

2.1

6.4

4.3

3.4

13.8

18.2

21.5

10.2

12.3

10.8

3.4

2.7

1.8

3.9

2.7

1.7

2.8

2.3

2.1

2.1

3.7

7.8

3.5

1.0

8.4

16.3

1.2

5.2

7.6

7.6

4.6

3.0

4.9

6.6

4.4

2.4

4.8

3.3

2.4

3.2

2.0

4.0

1.4

0.9

3.0

3.0

3.6

2.9

5.1

2.2

1.8

5.6

3.9

3.0

12.2

15.6

20.1

9.1

10.8

9.5

29.9

15.9

16.4

20.2

10.9

24.3

14.7

16.9

14.1

14.9

15.0

11.6

17.9

3.4

20.4

50.6

1.7

16.7

24.1

19.4

21.6

13.0

9.1

20.0

12.1

17.1

16.9

11.0

6.1

10.1

2.1

9.4

5.2

2.2

16.4

7.7

14.4

6.6

11.2

6.5

10.8

17.6

9.7

8.0

26.9

33.9

49.9

25.4

29.0

23.6

30.4

19.7

16.5

17.0

12.5

21.0

17.4

16.9

15.2

17.5

15.8

15.4

18.0

3.3

28.3

49.8

2.7

20.8

22.7

20.8

21.0

14.1

12.9

20.6

13.4

15.8

16.8

12.2

8.0

12.6

9.6

12.0

15.7

4.4

17.8

13.8

15.9

10.3

20.9

12.0

14.6

15.7

13.5

12.5

29.6

35.8

55.5

26.7

33.2

22.6

Indiabulls Hsg

Buy

L&T Fin Holdings Buy

LIC Hsg Fin

Neutral

MAS Financial

Buy

M&M Fin.

Buy

Muthoot Fin

Neutral

PNB Housing

Buy

Repco Home

Buy

Shriram

City

Buy

Union

Shriram Trans. Buy

Aggregate

Capital Goods

ABB

Sell

Bharat Elec.

Buy

BHEL

Sell

Blue Star

Neutral

CG Cons. Elec.

Buy

CG Power & Indu. Neutral

Cummins

Buy

GE T&D

Neutral

Havells

Buy

K E C Intl

Neutral

L&T

Buy

Siemens

Neutral

Solar Ind

Neutral

Thermax

Neutral

Va Tech Wab.

Buy

Voltas

Neutral

Aggregate

Cement

Ambuja Cem.

Neutral

ACC

Neutral

Birla Corp.

Buy

Dalmia Bharat

Buy

Grasim Inds.

Neutral

India Cem

Neutral

J K Cements

Buy

JK Lakshmi Ce

Buy

Ramco Cem

Buy

Orient Cem

Buy

Prism Cem

Buy

Sagar Cements Not Rated

Sanghi Inds.

Buy

Shree Cem

Buy

Ultratech

Buy

Aggregate

Consumer

Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Buy

Dabur

Buy

Emami

Buy

Godrej Cons.

Neutral

1528

153

91

756

233

82

804

417

511

410

1313

1154

1021

1211

550

618

1240

210

80

780

305

90

1040

435

640

385

1650

1285

1100

1250

700

630

-19

37

-12

3

31

10

29

4

25

-6

26

11

8

3

27

2

19.8

7.1

3.0

16.6

5.1

1.1

23.2

10.6

11.4

16.1

49.0

19.8

24.4

28.6

33.2

18.0

30.1

7.9

2.9

24.6

6.5

1.9

31.3

11.6

13.9

18.7

58.1

30.4

29.6

34.7

34.8

20.2

35.0

8.4

4.0

31.2

7.7

3.0

37.1

13.2

17.2

24.1

69.3

34.6

36.7

39.0

38.4

23.0

253

1634

905

2740

1167

157

1026

430

742

161

127

966

118

16617

4150

290

1781

1234

3328

1242

148

1343

470

847

179

159

-

157

22424

5131

15

9

36

21

6

-6

31

9

14

12

26

33

35

24

6.0

8.3

10.9

47.4 62.2

76.9

8.9

42.4

50.6

54.7 77.4 107.6

35.6 119.4 145.0

3.7

7.6

10.4

44.4 56.5

76.9

9.4

18.5

25.0

24.3 30.5

38.8

3.3

5.5

10.3

2.2

4.7

6.3

25.2 50.6

70.6

5.8

8.9

12.0

423.0 435.8 724.2

89.0 136.2 178.4

30.4 41.9

23.6 34.5

19.5 102.2

39.0 50.1

21.4 32.8

37.7 42.0

36.0 23.1

35.2 45.8

27.2 30.5

88.7 48.8

33.4 57.0

39.7 38.4

34.6 20.3

66.2 39.3

31.1 46.6

31.2 42.1

20.2

25.1

19.7

16.2

19.1

14.2

51.9

58.6

44.1

43.0

45.0

51.5

1120

4939

1058

325

1081

1077

1270

5995

1365

415

1505

1065

13

21

29

28

39

-1

21.6

84.2

24.0

7.6

24.0

20.9

25.6

30.8

105.1 131.5

28.3

33.8

9.0

10.5

31.3

37.3

24.1

27.5

5 March 2018

22