11th January 2018
Initiating Coverage I Sector: Capital Goods
KEI Industries Ltd
BSE SENSEX
34,503
S&P CNX
10,651
CMP: INR 373
TP: INR 537 (+44%)
Buy
We recommend BUY on KEI Industries Ltd. for target price of INR537
(18x FY20E EPS).
KEI Industries Ltd. (KEI) is ranked amongst the top 3 power cable companies
in India and is also engaged in the EPC business. It manufactures high and low
tension cables (HT, LT, EHV), control & instrumentation cables, house wires
(HW), power cables, stainless steel wires (SSW) and electrical cables. The
institutional segment is the largest revenue generator for the company (56%
in FY17), followed by retail segment (30%) and exports segment (14%).
KEI has been focusing on expanding its cable capacity to address growth
prospects in various segments. It has been concentrating on improving its
B2C (Retail Segment) share and growing institutional segment. KEI is looking
at entering newer markets in South and East India, apart from existing North
and West. The institutional segment along with EPC services has immense
growth potential given the government emphasis on power and infra.
Expanding retail segment to be a key growth driver:
We expect retail
segment revenue CAGR of 25% over FY17-20E to INR 16bn. Contribution
from the segment is expected to go up from 30% in FY17 to ~36% by FY20
(management guidance is 40%). We expect HW revenue CAGR of 20% over
FY17-20E to INR 7.4bn. KEI plans to increase its dealer network by 10-15%
every year (from 1,274 dealers in 2QFY18 to 1,500 by end of FY18).
EHV cables and EPC to drive institutional segment growth:
KEI aims to
strengthen its high-margin EHV segment (15% margins), with the installation
of 400kV production line in FY17 (Segments revenue generating capacity
increased to INR4bn). We expect EHV cables revenue to grow at a CAGR of
53% over FY17-20E to INR ~3.6bn. Its EPC order book has grown significantly
from INR ~4bn in FY14 to INR ~20bn in FY17. We expect EPC revenue CAGR of
28% over FY17-20E, due to management's focus on order execution.
MAXIMUM BUY
PRICE: INR 415
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Turnover, INR m
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/E (x)
Div. PO (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
2018E
32.2
3.4
1.3
17.0
34.1
77.0
21.9
4.8
10.5
5.0
24.7
18.7
2019E
38.0
4.0
1.7
22.3
30.9
98.2
16.8
3.8
8.9
4.9
25.4
19.7
2020E
44.6
4.9
2.3
29.8
33.9
126.5
12.5
2.9
7.3
5.0
26.5
20.5
KEII IN
77.8
423 / 125
-12 / 51 / 133
29.2
0.46
164
51
Robust revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth with improving return ratios:
Over
FY12-17, KEI's Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT grew at a CAGR of 9.2%/ 12.8%/ 32.3%
Shareholding pattern (%)
to INR 26.7bn/ 2.7bn/ 0.9bn, respectively, with EBITDA margin expansion of
As On
Sept-17
Jun-17 Mar-17
~155bps to 10.3%. We expect margins to improve further by ~75bps to 11%
Promoter
46.3
46.6
46.6
over FY17-20E on the back of increasing contribution from Retail & EHV
MFs
13.5
18.4
18.6
segment and better execution in the EPC business. Going ahead, we expect
FPIs
5.5
4.0
4.3
Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT CAGR of 18.7%/ 21.6%/ 33% to INR 44.6bn/ 4.9bn/
Others
34.7
31.0
30.5
2.3bn, respectively, over FY17-20E. RoE/ ROCE are expected to improve to
Investors are advised to refer through
26.5%/ 20.5% by FY20 from 23.5%/ 18.5% in FY17.
disclosures made at the end of the Research
Valuation:
KEI is likely to be a major beneficiary of key government initiatives
Report.
in power, infrastructure and real estate sector. It has high return ratios, free
cash flows and low debt to equity (0.7x FY20). Currently, KEI trades at 12.5x
Siddhartha Khemka
FY20 EPS. Given the high growth expectation along with healthy financials,
siddhartha.khemka@motilaloswal.com
we believe that the stock deserves higher valuations. We value KEI at 18x
FY20EPS to arrive at a fair value of INR 537/share (44% upside) and initiate
Pooja Doshi
coverage with a BUY recommendation.
pooja.doshi@motilaloswal.com