Sector Update | 10 January 2018
Capital Goods
Emission control equipment orders to finally kick start!
INR1.3t opportunity over next five years
The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF) had notified new emission norms for air
and water consumption in December 2015, with a deadline of two years for
implementation. While the deadline has expired, very little progress has been made in this
regard till date. However, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) under the Ministry of
Power has worked out a revised five-year timeline to December 2022 with power plants –
this has been agreed to by the MOEF and power plants will have to install the requisite
emission control equipment by December 2022. In this note, we delve into the potential
opportunity from these norms over the next few years by analyzing the implementation
plan for ~192GW of India’s existing coal-fired capacity, identifying the players benefitting
from this move, and gauging the impetus to replacement demand with old plants getting
phased out faster.
Ordering for emission control equipment to finally start from CY18; December
2022 the revised deadline:
The MOEF had notified new emission norms for air
and water in December 2015
(see Exhibit 1),
with a two-year timeline for
implementation. While very little progress in the past two years, the CEA has
worked out an implementation plan by December 2022 based on discussions
with individual power plants. The emission control implementation plan
submitted by the CEA to the Minister of Environment and Forest has been
accepted and Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) has already issued notices
to ~131GW power plants in December 2017 (India’s coal-fired capacity at
~192GW) to comply with these emission norms as per the implementation plan
(December 2018 to December 2022) submitted to the CEA. In our view, utilities
were delaying orders, as they awaited (a) revised timelines to be frozen before
going ahead with placing orders, (b) compensation for shutdown of boilers while
retrofitting, especially in case of SCR implementation, and (c) change in PPAs to
reflect higher costs from retrofitting. With these uncertainties behind, we
expect orders to pick up significantly over the next 2 -3 years, as 2-2.5 years
would be required for these projects to be executed to meet the
implementation deadline of December 2022. ~40GW of plants have already
been tendered for FGD installation, with ~32GW of tenders by NTPC alone.
INR1.3t opportunity for emission control equipment providers:
We delved into
the potential opportunity from the emission norms over the next few years by
analyzing the implementation plan for ~192GW of India’s existing coal-fired
capacity. We estimate an opportunity of INR1.3t
(see Exhibit 5)
totaling 196GW
from the retrofit of existing power plants (165GW) alongside the new plants
(30GW) to be commissioned over the 13
th
plan (FY22). In case of existing plants,
we have used the list of plants (~166GW) that have agreed to the
implementation timeline with the CEA by December 2022. The capex is
estimated at INR8.8m-12.8m/MW by the Central Electricity Authority for
meeting the new air (SPM, SOX, and NOX) and water consumption norms. In our
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5449
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
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