3 December 2017
Update
| Sector:
Healthcare
BSE SENSEX
32,833
S&P CNX
10,122
Biocon
Neutral
CMP: INR447
TP: INR485(+9%)
Mylan/ Biocon received Trastuzumab approval in US
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
BIOS IN
600
449/294
25/33/22
267.9
4.1
1054
39.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
40.8
42.7
52.2
Net Sales
11.4
9.3
12.8
EBITDA
6.1
3.7
6.1
PAT
10.2
6.1
10.1
EPS (INR)
31.8 -40.2
65.4
Gr. (%)
80.6
84.9
92.1
BV/Sh (INR)
12.3
7.2
11.0
RoE (%)
9.4
6.1
11.4
RoCE (%)
43.8
73.2
44.3
P/E (x)
5.5
5.3
4.9
P/BV (x)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
60.7
60.7
60.7
DII
3.8
3.7
5.1
FII
17.1
16.9
17.8
Others
18.4
18.8
16.5
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Biocon
Sensex - Rebased
480
430
380
330
280
Mylan/ Biocon announced on Friday that US FDA approved Mylan’s Ogivr
(trastuzumab-dkst), a biosimilar to Herceptin (trastuzumab), co-developed with
Biocon. Ogivri™ is the first FDA-approved biosimilar to Herceptin and the first
biosimilar from Mylan and Biocon’s joint portfolio approved in the US. Notably,
Mylan is the only player which has settled for a launch date with innovator
Roche. Mylan anticipates to be the first player to launch biosimilar version of
Herceptin. Patent for Herceptin is expiring in mid-2019. Since Biocon has not
filed this product through interchangeable route, it will not receive exclusivity
period for this product. We expect Mylan/ Biocon to launch Ogivri at least 3-6
months before patent expiry.
Biosimilar- USD900m-1b opportunity in medium term:
Trastuzumab,
PegFilgrastim and Insulin Glargine could be USD1b opportunity for Mylan/
Bioocon in medium term (USD250m from each product in US/ EU and
USD250m from all three products in EMs). Biocon’s sales could be ~40% of the
joint portfolio with EBITDA margin of ~30%.
Trastuzumab opportunity:
Roche is generating sales of ~USD2-2.5b/USD2b and
~USD1.8b from US, EU and EMs, respectively. Pfizer, Amgen/ allergen and
Teva/ Celtrion have also filed BLA in 2H CY17 with US FDA. Hanwha, and
Samsung are other potential late stage filers. Biocon has re-filed Trastuzumab
and PegFilgrastim with EU regulator in 3Q FY18.
PegFilgrastim opportunity:
Pegfilgrastim is a USD4.5b opportunity with US
sales of ~USD3.7-3.8b. Because of multiple biosimilar players in EU region for
Filgrastim, market size of Pegfilgrastim has come down to ~USD500m. Apotex,
Coherus, Sandoz and Cinfa are other late stage filers for this product. Apotex
has partnered with Intas for manufacturing supply and Intas’ plant has received
483s in mid-2017. Coherus received CRL from US FDA in Jun-17 and is expected
to re-file the product in next 1-2 quarters. Sandoz will be re-filing the product
in 2019. Biocon is planning to re-file the product in next few months.
Glargine Opportunity:
Glargine insulin sales in US stood at ~USD4b and
~USD2.5b in other geographies. Eli Lilly has already got the approval and has
clocked sales of USD115m in US and ~USD30m in other geographies in latest
quarter. Merck has got US FDA approval but cannot launch the product till
Mar-18 due to 30 month stay. Similarly, Biocon also has also been sued by
Sanofi in Oct-17. Unless Merck or Biocon win case against Sanofi, they will have
to wait for 30-month period. EU launch for Biocon is expected in FY19E.
Biologics business to take off from 2019:
Biocon can generate sales of
~USD350m-400m from sales of these there biosimilars in medium term.
Trastuzumab approval by US FDA is an important milestone for the company.
We maintain our neutral rating with revised target price of INR485@ 26x
FY20E PER (v/s INR335 @ 24x 1H FY20E PER). We have increased our TP
multiple to capture upside of biologics business in developed market which will
commence from 2019 onwards. We have increased our FY20E EPS by 17% on
the back of higher visibility of Biosimilar sales.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Kumar Saurabh – Research Analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Ankeet Pandya – Research Analyst
(Ankeet.Pandya@MotilalOswal.com );