Amara Raja Batteries
BSE SENSEX
33,315
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,322
AMRJ IN
171
128.3/1.9
1034/665
4/-29/-47
369.0
47.9
9 November 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
CMP: INR751
TP: INR856 (+14%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2018E 2019E 2020E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
59.9
71.1
83.4
EBITDA
9.1
11.0
13.1
PAT
4.8
5.8
7.2
EPS (INR)
28.3
34.2
41.9
Gr. (%)
0.9
20.8
22.7
BV/Sh (INR)
175
203
237
RoE (%)
17.3
18.1
19.1
RoCE (%)
16.5
17.2
18.1
P/E (x)
26.6
22.0
17.9
P/BV (x)
4.3
3.7
3.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Above est.; Favorable mix, price hikes, manufacturing efficiencies drive margins
Revenue below est. led by decline in telecom segment:
Net sales grew 7.1%
YoY (-4.7% QoQ) to INR14.3b (est. of INR15.4b), driven by growth in auto,
inverters and solar, while industrial segment revenue declined. Auto
performance was driven by double-digit growth in 2W/4Ws. However, a sharp
decline in Telecom led to lower industrial segment revenue.
EBITDA margin at 16.7% led by favorable mix, price hikes and efficiencies:
EBITDA margin expanded 380bp YoY (-50bp QoQ) to 16.7% (est. of 13%), led by
a favorable product mix (higher share of autos, inverter, e-rickshaw, etc.),
optimal utilization and price hikes in replacement market. Lower other income
and higher tax restricted PAT (-6.7% YoY to INR1.3b v/s est. of INR1.1b).
Takeaways from management interactions:
a) Undertaken price hike in
automotive and industrial replacement segments; took 6-7 price hikes in last
12 months, adequately covering cost inflation. b) Intense competition in
telecom led to a loss in market share to ~50% (v/s 65% earlier) and a
contraction on margin. c) Lead cost for 2QFY18 was USD2,170 per ton (v/s
USD2,270 in 1QFY18, USD1,750 in 2QFY17, spot rates of USD2,400-2,500). d)
Capex of INR5b in FY18. AMRJ is adding 2W battery capacity of 4m (to 15m by
Mar-18) and 4W battery capacity of 2.5m by FY19 (to 13m). e) ~80% of e-
rickshaw battery replacement market is unorganized, with total e-rickshaw
population of 0.8m-1m units. f) Lithium Ion technology is a priority area; it is
evaluation option for technology, including Johnson Control. g) Expects lead
acid battery industry CAGR of 8-10% over 2-3 years (steady state), with AMRJ
growing at 13-15% CAGR. Industry EBITDA margin to sustain at 14-16%, with
AMRJ enjoying margins closer to the upper end.
Valuation view:
We upgrade EPS estimates by 11%/4% for FY18/FY19, as we
factor in lower RM cost. We increase our depreciation and tax rate
assumptions. The stock trades at 26.6x/22x FY18E/19E EPS. Maintain
Buy
with
a TP of INR856 (23x Sep-19 EPS).
FY18
FY17 FY18E
2Q
3QE
4QE
14,275 15,405 15,239 53,172 59,893
7.1
16.0
13.3
15.1
12.6
66.0
66.8
66.8
65.6
67.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
4.7
4.2
12.1
12.4
12.2
13.9
11.6
2,381 2,420 2,401 8,499 9,130
16.7
15.7
15.8
16.0
15.2
584
600
664 1,912 2,392
13
12
13
58
51
122
150
166
492
575
1,907 1,958 1,890 7,022 7,262
33.3
33.5
33.5
31.9
33.5
1,272 1,302 1,256 4,785 4,829
-6.7
15.9
26.7
-2.7
0.9
FY18
2QE VAR (%)
15,474
-7.7
15.0
70.0 -400bp
5.2
0bp
11.8
30bp
2,006
18.7
13.0
370bp
550
6.1
14
-10.7
175
-30.1
1,617
17.9
31.5
1,108
14.8
-18.7
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March (INR m)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
RM Cost (% of sales)
Staff Cost (% of sales)
Other Exp (% of sales)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Rate (%)
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
13,081
15.0
65.7
5.0
11.9
2,273
17.4
441
14
90
1,908
31.5
1,307
8.0
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
13,331 13,280 13,445
15.8
9.5
17.4
63.9
65.0
68.0
5.2
5.4
5.2
13.7
14.1
13.0
2,297 2,051 1,844
17.2
15.4
13.7
457
480
499
15
14
15
120
133
151
1,945 1,689 1,480
29.9
33.5
33.0
1,363 1,123
992
10.4
-17.9
-9.1
1Q
14,975
14.5
70.0
5.4
11.7
1,929
12.9
544
14
137
1,508
33.7
999
-23.6
Jinesh Gandhi – Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah – Research Analyst
(Deep.Shah@MotilalOswal.com) |
Suneeta Kamath – Research Analyst
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.