11 October 2017
Update | Sector: Healthcare
Lupin
BSE SENSEX
31,834
S&P CNX
9,985
CMP: INR1,045
TP: INR1,215(+16%)
Lupin acquires branded business in the US
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
LPC IN
452
1,572/920
8/-35/-44
467.7
7.0
1750.0
53.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
174.9 169.1 199.2
EBITDA
44.9
36.2
46.6
PAT
25.6
18.7
26.2
EPS (INR)
56.6
41.4
58.0
Gr. (%)
12.4 -26.9
40.0
BV/Sh (INR)
298.9 329.8 377.2
RoE (%)
20.9
13.2
16.4
RoCE (%)
13.3
8.8
11.1
P/E (x)
18.2
25.2
18.0
P/BV (x)
3.5
3.2
2.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
46.8
46.7
46.7
DII
12.4
9.8
7.2
FII
27.7
30.9
34.7
Others
13.1
12.6
11.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Lupin
Sensex - Rebased
1,850
1,600
1,350
1,100
850
Single dosage – the key differentiating factor
Lupin (LPC) has announced the acquisition of Symbiomix Therapeutics for a
cash consideration of USD150m, including USD50m upfront and other time-
based payments. In addition, there are sales-based contingent payments. The
transaction was closed on 11
th
October 2017.
Strengthening presence in Branded Women’s Health division:
Currently,
Symbiomix has no sales, and is working on the innovative branded franchise
Solosec. In March 2017, Solosec NDA was submitted with the USFDA, and on
15
th
September 2017, the USFDA approved Solosec (Secnidazole) oral granules
for the treatment of Bacterial Vaginosis (BV) in adult women. LPC expects
Solosec to be commercially available by mid-2018. Solosec is the first and only
single-dose oral treatment approved for BV. The company believes that Solosec
is eligible for at least 10 years of exclusivity in the US.
Key differentiating factor – single dosage (competitors offer multiple
dosages):
According to the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),
Metronidazole or Clindamycin cream is the recommended regimen. Tinidazole
is the alternative regimen to treat BV. Metronidazole (first-generation
Nitroimidazole) requires twice-a-day dosage for seven days for a total
administration of seven grams of drug v/s single-dose requirement for Solosec.
A study shows that adherence to Metronidazole for the treatment of BV has
been 50%. Poor adherence due to the length of the regimen may lead to
treatment failures, recurrent disease, and more rapid development of resistant
microorganisms. However, Tinidazole 2g can be consumed once for two days
(not significantly different from Solosec).
No branded player currently; VivaGel could be new competition:
Apart from
existing drugs like Metronidazole, Clindamycin and Tinidazole, VivaGel
(Australia-based Star Pharma-owned) could be the latest and only branded
competition to Solosec. Start Pharma successfully completed Phase-3 studies
for VivaGel in August 2017. Like Solosec, the FDA has granted Qualified
Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) and Fast Track designations for VivaGel® BV
(for both BV indications). Star Pharma also expects to launch this in 2018. The
key factor is that VivaGel is not an antibiotic, and an NDA will be filed for two
separate BV indications – BV treatment and prevention of rBV (more than 50%
of women treated for BV have a recurrence within 12 months). Currently, there
is a treatment that claims prevention of BV (including Solosec). However, in
terms of dosage, Solosec will have an advantage, as VivaGel is a seven-day
treatment.
Market size:
Currently, ~6m prescriptions (~75% is oral and 25% through
vaginal route) are written for BV in the US annually. LPC expects to achieve 15-
20% market share in this segment. LPC expects a payback period of 5-6 years
from the acquisition of Solosec.
Kumar Saurabh – Research Analyst
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Ankeet Pandya – Research Analyst
(Ankeet.Pandya@MotilalOswal.com );
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Lupin
Key call takeaways:
Solosec will be manufactured at the CMO facility based in
the US. 2) LPC will expand its salesforce in the women’s healthcare space to 100-
150 to achieve peak market share for Solosec. 3) Apart from upfront payment of
USD50m, the remaining USD100m will be paid over next seven years. 4) LPC will
also launch this product in Australia, Japan and Canada.
About Bacterial Vaginosis:
BV is the most prevalent gynecologic infection in the
US among women in the age group of 14-49, with more than 21m affected and
4m women treated annually. More than 50% of women treated for BV have a
recurrence within 12 months. BV has a significant impact on work productivity
and quality-of-life of affected women, with 60% of recurrent sufferers reporting
a negative impact on work attendance, job performance and productivity, and
95% reporting a severe restriction in intimate partner relations.
Recovery expected only 2H; stock already factors in most concerns:
Although
pricing pressure in the base business and new competition in the Metformin
portfolio are expected to keep exerting pressure on the US business, we believe
that sales will bottom by 2QFY18. We maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR1215 @ 21x
FY19E PER (v/s INR1,125 @20x FY19E PER). We have increased out TP multiple,
as we expect a recovery in earnings 2HFY18 onward, led by the key launches
and the ramp-up in the specialty business portfolio.
Exhibit 1: Current recommendation regimens for Bacterial Vaginosis
Drug Name
Recommended Regimens
Metronidazole 500 mg
Metronidazole gel 0.75%
Clindamycin cream 2%
Alternative Regimens
Tinidazole 2 g
Tinidazole 1 g
Clindamycin 300 mg
Orally twice a day for 7 days
One full applicator (5 g) intravaginal, once a day for 5 days
One full applicator (5 g) intravaginal at bedtime for 7 days
Orally once daily for 2 days
Orally once daily for 5 days
Orally twice daily for 7 days
9
8
3
-
-
8
Dosage
Number of players
11 October 2017
2

Lupin
Story in charts
Exhibit 2: Revenue mix in 1QFY18
US
7
9
11
37
Europe
India
Japan
RoW
22
3
APIs
9
49
FY11
9
60
FY12
9
85
FY13
11
100
FY14
12
12
11
12
11
Exhibit 3: Growth to slow down due to regulatory issues
Formulations (INR b)
API (INR b)
114
FY15
125
FY16
160
156
184
FY17 FY18E FY19E
Exhibit 4: R&D expense to be in the range of 12-13%
R&D expense (INR b)
11.3
8.3
7.4
7.4
8.2
8.6
% of sales
13.2
12.0
13.0
Exhibit 5: Margins to remain under pressure due to pricing
pressure
EBITDA (INR b)
28.3
26.6
17.3
20.3
EBITDA margins (%)
26.4
25.7
21.4
23.4
4.83
FY11
5
FY12
7
FY13
9
FY14
11
16
23
20
26
14
FY12
23
30
36
38
45
36
46
FY15 FY16E FY17 FY18E FY19E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E FY19E
Exhibit 6: EPS to remain muted till FY19
EPS (INR/ share)
Exhibit 7: Rich ANDA pipeline
ANDA filed
ANDA pending
343
368
127
148
173
176
192
210
19
18
29
39
53
50
57
41
58
86
FY10
100
FY11
109
FY12
98
FY13
93
FY14
99
FY15
163
FY16
154
FY17
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
11 October 2017
3

Lupin
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income - Rec.
PBT before EO item
EO Expense/(Income)
PBT after EO item
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Less: Minority Interest
Reported PAT
PAT Adj for EO items
Change (%)
Margin (%)
2014
112,866
17.1
30,028
26.6
2,610
27,418
267
165
27,317
-1,000
28,317
9,622
34.0
331
18,364
17,364
32.1
15.4
2015
127,700
13.1
36,196
28.3
4,347
31,849
98
2,398
34,148
0
34,148
9,704
28.4
412
24,032
24,032
38.4
18.8
2016
142,085
11.3
37,534
26.4
4,635
32,899
446
1,877
34,330
0
34,330
11,536
33.6
88
22,707
22,707
-5.5
16.0
2017
174,943
23.1
44,931
25.7
9,122
35,809
1,525
1,065
35,349
0
35,349
9,785
27.7
-11
25,574
25,574
12.6
14.6
2018E
169,110
-3.3
36,190
21.4
10,451
25,738
1,689
1,500
25,550
0
25,550
6,771
26.5
85
18,694
18,694
-26.9
11.1
(INR Million)
2019E
199,249
17.8
46,624
23.4
11,131
35,493
1,266
1,500
35,727
0
35,727
9,468
26.5
85
26,174
26,174
40.0
13.1
Consolidated Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Deferred liabilities
Secured Loan
Unsecured Laon
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Goodwill & Intangibles
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
2014
897
68,419
69,316
669
1,779
1,968
4,024
5,992
77,756
45,638
19,283
26,355
3,041
1,785
7,202
62,970
21,295
24,641
7,975
9,060
23,597
18,818
4,779
39,374
77,756
2015
899
87,842
88,741
241
1,182
1,018
3,692
4,710
94,874
45,445
19,174
26,271
5,760
16,584
17,411
64,510
25,036
26,566
4,814
8,095
35,662
28,299
7,363
28,848
94,874
2016
901
108,943
109,844
321
1,239
53,739
17,454
71,193
182,596
55,887
23,262
32,625
9,812
75
73,586
107,473
31,787
45,498
8,379
21,808
40,975
32,318
8,658
66,498
182,596
2017
903
134,072
134,975
345
-1,128
61,243
23,183
84,426
218,619
55,265
8,902
46,363
7,150
220
78,147
129,117
36,423
43,073
27,994
21,626
42,378
34,576
7,801
86,739
218,619
2018E
903
148,011
148,914
430
-1,128
61,243
23,183
84,426
232,643
68,285
24,075
44,210
6,925
220
82,869
142,056
31,954
44,266
44,096
21,741
43,637
31,310
12,327
98,419
232,643
2019E
903
169,430
170,333
515
-1,128
61,243
23,183
84,426
254,147
81,192
35,206
45,986
6,812
220
82,869
166,973
37,066
52,155
55,884
21,867
48,713
36,116
12,597
118,260
254,147
11 October 2017
4

Lupin
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (Fully Diluted)
Cash EPS (Fully Diluted)
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E (Fully Diluted)
Cash P/E (Fully Diluted)
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Leverage Ratio
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2014
38.7
44.5
154.6
6.0
16.0
2015
53.5
63.1
197.4
7.5
16.9
2016
50.4
60.7
243.8
7.5
17.9
20.7
17.2
4.3
3.7
14.1
2017
56.6
76.8
298.9
9.0
18.6
18.2
13.4
3.5
3.0
11.7
2018E
41.4
64.5
329.8
9.0
25.4
25.2
16.2
3.2
3.0
14.0
2019E
58.0
82.6
377.2
9.0
18.2
18.0
12.6
2.8
2.5
10.6
28.6
26.5
29.7
2.7
102.9
0.1
30.4
29.1
34.4
1.8
324.7
0.1
22.9
16.8
18.8
2.6
73.7
0.7
20.9
13.3
14.9
3.0
23.5
0.6
13.2
8.8
10.4
3.3
15.2
0.6
16.4
11.1
14.0
3.4
28.0
0.5
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Oper. Profit before Tax
Interest/Dividends Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Op. incl EO Exp.
(inc)/dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
Change in Net Worth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
2014
30,028
165
-9,475
-4,368
17,349
-6,098
10,251
-1,764
-7,862
1,593
-4,248
-267
-2,939
-5,861
3,626
4,349
7,975
2015
36,196
2,398
-10,300
7,364
35,657
-17,191
18,466
-14,799
-31,991
-1,389
-1,282
-98
-4,058
-6,828
-3,161
7,975
4,814
2016
37,534
1,877
-11,479
-34,084
-6,152
-71,217
-77,369
16,509
-54,708
2,459
66,483
-446
-4,071
64,425
3,565
4,814
8,379
2017
44,931
1,065
-12,152
-626
33,219
-24,759
8,460
-145
-24,904
4,348
13,233
-1,525
-4,755
11,300
19,615
8,379
27,994
2018E
36,190
1,500
-6,771
4,421
35,340
-12,795
22,545
0
-12,795
0
0
-1,689
-4,755
-6,444
16,101
27,994
44,095
2019E
46,624
1,500
-9,468
-8,052
30,605
-12,795
17,810
0
-12,795
0
0
-1,266
-4,755
-6,021
11,789
44,096
55,884
11 October 2017
5

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Lupin
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Lupin
No
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person
or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of
offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or
appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations
as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to
determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative
products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the
views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time
without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities
mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities
functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is
being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not
directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would
be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to
certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or
representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The
person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or
employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this
information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231;
MSE(F&O): INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset
Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth
management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities
Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
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