Ultratech Cement
BSE SENSEX
32,037
S&P CNX
9,892
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14 July 2017
Update
| Sector:
Cement
CMP: INR4,218
TP: INR4,936 (+17%)
Buy
Asset creation by way of JPA acquisition permanent
Earnings dilution transitory; maintain Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
UTCEM IN
274.4
4531 / 3052
1/10/6
1,157.5
18.0
1156
37.8
UTCEM’s clinker capacity addition over the next two years (FY17-19) would be similar
to the clinker capacity added over the last six years (FY11-17). The JPA acquisition has
significantly reduced lead time for asset creation and market share enhancement.
FY19E EV/tonne adjusted for JPA’s assets and Dhar expansion appears moderated by
over 20%, implying reduction in the ~50% premium over peers’ EV/tonne to 25-30%.
UTCEM has achieved strong cost efficiency parameters in power & fuel and freight
cost for standalone operations. We believe the cost curve for JPA would also improve
meaningfully post takeover by UTCEM.
JPA’s acquisition is likely to result in PBT dilution of ~19% in FY18 and ~8% in FY19;
we expect the acquired assets to break even in 1HFY20. While the earnings dilution is
transitory, the asset creation is permanent and would add to UTCEM’s long-term
competitive advantage. We reiterate Buy.
Lead time for asset creation reduced significantly
UTCEM is likely to add clinker capacity of ~19m tonnes over FY17-19, led by JPA’s
acquisition and Dhar expansion, similar to the clinker capacity added over FY11-
FY17. Thus, it would be recreating the assets it created over the last six years in just
two years. Additionally, the last couple of limestone bids point to a sharp increase
in the cost of acquisition of limestone. Players acquiring new capacities would be at
a cost disadvantage to players with legacy assets. Companies like UTCEM that hold
large limestone reserves are likely to get premium multiples on account of the
significant competitive edge they possess.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Sales
238.9 303.5
EBITDA
49.7
63.3
NP
26.4
26.3
Adj EPS (INR)
96.1
95.8
EPS Gr. (%)
11.3
-0.3
BV/Sh (INR)
872.1 945.3
RoE (%)
11.6
10.5
RoCE (%)
9.7
8.8
P/E (x)
41.8
41.9
P/BV (x)
4.6
4.3
2019E
375.4
83.3
39.3
143.1
49.4
1,042.0
14.4
10.0
28.1
3.9
EV/tonne appears moderated, adjusted for JPA’s assets
We believe UTCEM’s valuation on EV/tonne appears moderated, adjusting for JPA’s
assets and capacity expansion at Dhar. As JPA’s assets are acquired at
~USD120/tonne as against UTCEM’s EV/tonne of USD245, blended EV/tonne
appears meaningfully moderated at USD195/tonne. This implies a reduction in the
~50% premium over peers’ EV/tonne to 25-30%.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
62.2
62.3
62.5
DII
5.6
6.3
7.1
FII
21.9
20.8
19.0
Others
10.4
10.6
11.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Cost efficiency measures to further raise competitive edge
UTCEM’s focus on cost efficiency has reflected in curtailment of costs in the last
few quarters in an environment where underlying fuel prices have almost doubled.
Improved power consumption norm, higher proportion of alternative fuels and raw
materials (AFR), greater reliance on waste heat recovery systems (WHRS), and
higher sales from split grinding units have helped contain its unitary costing.
JPA acquisition to turn earnings-accretive from FY20
We expect UTCEM to witness PBT dilution of 19% in FY18 and PBT dilution of 8% in
FY19 due to JPA’s acquisition. We estimate JPA’s acquisition to break even at PBT
level by 1HFY20 at ~76% utilization with EBITDA/tonne at INR1,150. We are
estimating 54%/72%/80% utilization for JPA in FY18/FY19/FY20. We expect JPA’s
EBITDA/ton for FY18/FY19/FY20 at INR650/INR900/INR1,200, led by its cost-
efficiency program, realization improvement, and positive operating leverage.
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Pradnya Ganar
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4322
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.