Ultratech Cement
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14 July 2017
Update
| Sector:
Cement
CMP: INR4,218
TP: INR4,936 (+17%)
Buy
Asset creation by way of JPA acquisition permanent
Earnings dilution transitory; maintain Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
UTCEM IN
274.4
4531 / 3052
1/10/6
1,157.5
18.0
1156
37.8
UTCEM’s clinker capacity addition over the next two years (FY17-19) would be similar
to the clinker capacity added over the last six years (FY11-17). The JPA acquisition has
significantly reduced lead time for asset creation and market share enhancement.
FY19E EV/tonne adjusted for JPA’s assets and Dhar expansion appears moderated by
over 20%, implying reduction in the ~50% premium over peers’ EV/tonne to 25-30%.
UTCEM has achieved strong cost efficiency parameters in power & fuel and freight
cost for standalone operations. We believe the cost curve for JPA would also improve
meaningfully post takeover by UTCEM.
JPA’s acquisition is likely to result in PBT dilution of ~19% in FY18 and ~8% in FY19;
we expect the acquired assets to break even in 1HFY20. While the earnings dilution is
transitory, the asset creation is permanent and would add to UTCEM’s long-term
competitive advantage. We reiterate Buy.
Lead time for asset creation reduced significantly
UTCEM is likely to add clinker capacity of ~19m tonnes over FY17-19, led by JPA’s
acquisition and Dhar expansion, similar to the clinker capacity added over FY11-
FY17. Thus, it would be recreating the assets it created over the last six years in just
two years. Additionally, the last couple of limestone bids point to a sharp increase
in the cost of acquisition of limestone. Players acquiring new capacities would be at
a cost disadvantage to players with legacy assets. Companies like UTCEM that hold
large limestone reserves are likely to get premium multiples on account of the
significant competitive edge they possess.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Sales
238.9 303.5
EBITDA
49.7
63.3
NP
26.4
26.3
Adj EPS (INR)
96.1
95.8
EPS Gr. (%)
11.3
-0.3
BV/Sh (INR)
872.1 945.3
RoE (%)
11.6
10.5
RoCE (%)
9.7
8.8
P/E (x)
41.8
41.9
P/BV (x)
4.6
4.3
2019E
375.4
83.3
39.3
143.1
49.4
1,042.0
14.4
10.0
28.1
3.9
EV/tonne appears moderated, adjusted for JPA’s assets
We believe UTCEM’s valuation on EV/tonne appears moderated, adjusting for JPA’s
assets and capacity expansion at Dhar. As JPA’s assets are acquired at
~USD120/tonne as against UTCEM’s EV/tonne of USD245, blended EV/tonne
appears meaningfully moderated at USD195/tonne. This implies a reduction in the
~50% premium over peers’ EV/tonne to 25-30%.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
62.2
62.3
62.5
DII
5.6
6.3
7.1
FII
21.9
20.8
19.0
Others
10.4
10.6
11.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Cost efficiency measures to further raise competitive edge
UTCEM’s focus on cost efficiency has reflected in curtailment of costs in the last
few quarters in an environment where underlying fuel prices have almost doubled.
Improved power consumption norm, higher proportion of alternative fuels and raw
materials (AFR), greater reliance on waste heat recovery systems (WHRS), and
higher sales from split grinding units have helped contain its unitary costing.
JPA acquisition to turn earnings-accretive from FY20
We expect UTCEM to witness PBT dilution of 19% in FY18 and PBT dilution of 8% in
FY19 due to JPA’s acquisition. We estimate JPA’s acquisition to break even at PBT
level by 1HFY20 at ~76% utilization with EBITDA/tonne at INR1,150. We are
estimating 54%/72%/80% utilization for JPA in FY18/FY19/FY20. We expect JPA’s
EBITDA/ton for FY18/FY19/FY20 at INR650/INR900/INR1,200, led by its cost-
efficiency program, realization improvement, and positive operating leverage.
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Pradnya Ganar
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4322
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Ultratech Cement
Valuation and view
UTCEM would be in a formidable position post the JPA acquisition, with ~21%
market share. While in the short-term, the acquisition would be earnings-dilutive,
we believe addition of ~31% of the present capacity at virtually zero lead time is
critical for a large-scale player like UTCEM to retain market share. The expanded
capacity would give it an edge when there is an upturn. We maintain our
Buy
rating.
We value the stock at FY20E EV/EBITDA of 14x. Though the target multiple might
appear aggressive, we believe JPA’s FY20E earnings do not justify the full potential
of its assets. Our target price of INR4,936 implies 17% upside.
Exhibit 1: Comparative valuation
CMP
1,753
262
926
2,741
208.95
963
461.8
156.15
121.3
708.75
18,586
4,218
EPS (INR)
FY17E FY18E FY19E
33.7
49.9
64.9
4.9
7.3
8.2
29.4
40.9
58.9
38.8
66.7
87.1
5.6
9.3
12.9
33.7
40.4
53.5
7.0
11.4
19.2
(1.6)
4.6
7.0
0.3
3.7
5.6
27.3
31.1
37.5
384.4
454.7
575.2
96.1
95.8
143.1
FY17E
51.9
40.5
31.6
70.7
37.1
28.6
66.4
(99.7)
348.7
26.0
48.4
41.8
42.6
P/E
FY18E
35.2
27.3
22.6
41.1
22.4
23.8
40.5
33.8
32.7
22.8
40.9
41.9
34.2
FY19E
27.0
24.2
15.7
31.5
16.2
18.0
24.1
22.4
21.5
18.9
32.3
28.1
25.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY17E FY18E FY19E
25.7
19.4
14.9
23.9
20.3
16.8
16.6
9.2
7.6
16.9
13.5
11.7
9.8
8.3
7.0
13.7
11.7
9.8
19.0
13.8
10.1
24.3
11.9
9.6
29.7
16.1
12.1
15.7
13.8
11.6
25.6
21.9
17.0
22.9
19.6
14.4
20.7
16.8
13.3
FY17E
7.4
5.1
7.5
7.2
3.4
14.4
6.0
(3.2)
1.8
19.2
20.2
11.6
11.1
RoE (%)
FY18E
10.6
7.3
9.2
11.3
5.5
15.0
9.2
9.2
17.2
18.6
20.4
10.5
12.1
FY19E
13.1
7.8
12.2
13.1
7.2
17.2
13.8
12.6
22.0
19.1
21.3
14.4
14.9
ACC
ACEM
BCORP
DBEL
ICEM
JKCE
JKLC
ORCMNT
PRISM
MCEM
SRCM
UTCEM
Aggregate
14 July 2017
2

Ultratech Cement
Recreating assets created in the last six years in the next two years
Over the six-year period, FY11-17, UTCEM added clinker capacity of ~16m tonnes at
an estimated capex of INR170b, translating into capex per unit of clinker at
INR10,625/tonne. By acquiring JPA, UTCEM is gaining access to clinker capacity of
~16m tonnes at a cost of INR165b. Thus, UTCEM is recreating the clinker capacity it
has created over the last six years without any cost escalation.
Additionally, JPA’s limestone reserves and associated clinker capacity gives UTCEM
access to the Central India market, where UTCEM has limited presence. It should,
therefore, gain market share over the next 2-3 years. UTCEM would be adding
further cement capacity of 3.5m tonnes in South West MP by the end of FY19 at an
estimated capex of USD110/tonne. By the end of FY19, UTCEM’s total domestic
cement capacity would be ~91m tonnes.
Exhibit 2: Clinker capacity addition over the years
Clinker capacity (mt)
Clinker capacity addition (mt)
2.7
3.3
36.2
FY11
36.2
FY12
FY13
3.3
3.6
5.3
0
16.2
67.9
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: Recreating assets created over the last six years in two years
Clinker capacity addition (mt)
15.5
18.9
FY11-FY17
FY17-FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
14 July 2017
3

Ultratech Cement
Exhibit 4: Ultratech – capex trend
Ultratech Capex(INR mn)
32,320
21,030
35,700
23,030
26,510
21,400
11,000
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 5: Capex comparison
Capex comparison for Ultratech (INR mn)
170,990
165,700
Cumulative capex over FY11-FY17
JPA's Acquistion
Source: MOSL, Company
Legacy assets a source of competitive advantage
The last few limestone bids – by Emami Cement, Dalmia Cement and Ambuja
Cement – point to a sharp increase in the cost of acquisition of limestone. Bid prices
have increased from INR284/tonne in February 2016 to INR623/tonne in July 2017.
Acquiring limestone at a bid price of INR400-600/tonne would lead to an increase of
~INR300/tonne in raw material cost, which translates into an increase of
~INR30/bag in the price of cement.
The average raw material cost for cement companies is INR650/tonne. This includes
a royalty charge and DMF charge of ~INR100/tonne. Apart from limestone
acquisition, the other components of raw material cost are handling, freight and
additive costs.
Players acquiring new capacities would be at a cost disadvantage to players holding
legacy assets. This implies that players with large limestone reserves are likely to get
premium multiples on account of the competitive edge they possess. Through the
acquisition of JPA, UTCEM has acquired large limestone reserves in newer markets
at zero lead time, which would otherwise have been a near impossible task.
14 July 2017
4

Ultratech Cement
Exhibit 6: Limestone Bid prices on a rise
Bid price by cement companies for limestone(INR/ton)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
19-Feb-16
28-Sep-16
5-Jan-17
12-Jan-17
12-Jan-17
2-May-17
Shree
Cement in
Chattisgarh
Emami
Cement in
Rajasthan
Dalmia
Bharat in
Orissa
Dalmia
Bharat in
Rajasthan
Dalmia Bharat
in Chattisgarh
Emami
Cement in
Rajasthan
Ambuja Cement
in Maharashtra
3-Jul-17
Source: MOSL, Company
Prepared for expansion beyond FY19, too
Environmental clearance data suggests that UTCEM has clearances for ~17m tonnes
of projects, ~18% of its capacity post JPA acquisition. Given the current lead times of
putting up new cement plants, this puts it in an advantageous position to increase
cement capacity post the consolidation of assets acquired from JPA. UTCEM is
better placed for potential market share expansion, as it has access to reserves in
most regions covering Gujarat in the West, Tamil Nadu in the South, and Madhya
Pradesh in Central India.
Exhibit 7: Ultratech better placed for expansion in key markets due to clearances for ~17m
tonnes
Date
Jan-17
Aug-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Total
Limestone production
capacity
0.5
2
4
6
3.7
1
1
16.8
Cost of mining
Mining lease area
project (INR m)
(in Ha)
Bhavnagar-Gujarat
300
193.32
Bhavnagar-Gujarat
-
670
Raipur-Chhatisgarh
1,060
698
Neemuch-M.P
1,172
343
Dhar-M.P
550
965
Perambalur-T.N
25
55
Ariyalur-T.N
25
74
3,132
2,999
Source: www.environmentclearance.nic.in
Location
Set for market share gains
UTCEM’s all India market share before JPA acquisition was ~15%, with dominant
share of ~35% in the western region. Its share in the western region had expanded
from ~27% to 35% following the acquisition of JPA’s 4.8m-tonne Kutch unit in 2013.
UTCEM had below average market share in the central and southern regions.
Following the JPA acquisition, UTCEM’s all India market share would increase to
~21% (+600bp) and capacity would increase by 37% to 91m tonnes (including
greenfield expansion of 3.5m tonnes in MP) by standalone UTCEM. It would see
marked improvement in exposure to the central market, and moderate market
share gains in the northern (+5%) and southern (+3%) markets.
14 July 2017
5

Ultratech Cement
We are fairly positive on the long-term prospects of the central and northern
markets, given highest utilization improvement due to limited capacity addition.
While we acknowledge that ramp up of JPA’s units in the central region from sub-
30% to ~60% over the next 3-9 months might lead to some volatility in pricing, this
should be temporary. Also, from the demand curve perspective, there should be
good demand originating from infrastructure spend in UP and MP, which are also
witnessing some pick-up in rural demand.
Exhibit 8: Ultratech has significant market share across most regions
Region
North
Central
East
West
South
All India
Capacity ex- JPA (mt)
13
6
12
20
15
66.6
Market Share (%)
14%
10%
15%
35%
11%
15%
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 9: Market share of UItratech is set to increase with JPA capacity addition
Region
North
Central
East
West
South
All India
Capacity including JPA (mt)
18
21*
12
20
20
91
Market Share (%)
19%
33%
15%
35%
14%
21%
Source: Ultratech’s May 2017 presentation;* Includes 3.5m tonnes of greenfield expansion at Dhar by
Ultratech Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 10: ~23% increase in market share in central region due to JPA acquisition
Region
North
Central
East
West
South
All India
Increase in market share due to JPA (%)
5%
23%
0%
0%
3%
6%
Source: Company, MOSL
Cost efficiency measures to further raise competitive edge
UTCEM’s focus on cost efficiency has reflected in curtailment of costs in the last few
quarters in an environment where underlying fuel prices have almost doubled.
Improved power consumption norm, higher proportion of alternative fuels and raw
materials (AFR), greater reliance on waste heat recovery systems (WHRS), and
higher sales from split grinding units have helped contain its unitary costing.
UTCEM’s freight cost/tonne has declined by 6% over 1QFY16-4QFY17, though
underlying diesel prices have increased by 19%. The primary reason for this is lead
distance reduction on account of higher proportion of split grinding units. UTCEM’s
capacity addition in the last two years has been only through commissioning of split
grinding units and their ramp-up in the last 8 quarters has resulted in contained
freight cost/tonne while diesel prices have increased sharply. Besides, the ramp-up
of bulk terminals in Pune has further curtailed UTCEM’s freight cost/tonne.
14 July 2017
6

Ultratech Cement
Exhibit 11: Ultratech’s freight cost declined by 6% over the last two years despite 19%
increase in diesel prices
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
Source: MOSL
UTCEM Freight cost (rebased to 100)
Diesel prices (rebased to 100)
119.3
94.6
Exhibit 12: Higher proportion of split grinding units in the last two years
Cement capacity (mt)
Capacity added (mt)
6.2
54
60
6.2mt of Grinding Unit
added in Bihar, West
Bengal and Haryana
66.2
FY14
FY15
Till FY17
Source: MOSL, Company
Over 1QFY16-4QFY17, though underlying petcoke prices increased by 8%, UTCEM’s
power and fuel cost declined 7.2%. This decline was driven by (a) increase in
petcoke consumption from 43% in 1QFY15 to 71% in 4QFY17, and (b) higher
proportion of WHR and AFR. UTCEM reduced its power consumption norm by 4% in
4QFY17. The waste heat recovery systems account for 8% of the power capacity of
the company.
Usage of industrial waste as alternative fuel in cement manufacture, and minimal
usage of natural raw materials are other practices that the company follows.
14 July 2017
7

Ultratech Cement
Exhibit 13: Ultratech’s power and fuel cost declined by 7.2% in the last two years while
petcoke prices increased by 8%
120
100
80
60
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
92.8
Retail petcoke prices (rebased to 100)
UTCEM Power and Fuel cost (rebased to 100)
108.8
Exhibit 14: Petcoke accounts for more than 70% of Ultratech’s fuel mix
% of petcoke used
74%
68%
70%
65%
74%
76%
78%
71%
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16E
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
Standalone cash flows to repay debt related to JPA acquisition in four years
From net debt of INR12b in FY16, UTCEM’s standalone operations turned net cash
positive to INR24b in FY17, when it generated cash of INR36b, led by improved
profitability and limited capex. We expect UTCEM’s operations ex-JPA to generate
stable cash flows of INR35b-40b annually, despite increase in profitability, due to
capex towards Dhar and other upgradation projects in standalone operations.
UTCEM’s standalone operations would require about four years to repay the debt
related to JPA’s acquisition as also fund own internal capacity expansion.
Exhibit 15: Operating cash flows on a rise
Operating Cash flow (INR mn)
35,769
31,967
36,672
31,478
38,956
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: MOSL, Company
14 July 2017
8

Ultratech Cement
EV/tonne appears moderated, adjusted for JPA’s assets
We believe UTCEM’s valuation on EV/tonne appears moderated, adjusting for JPA’s
assets and capacity expansion at Dhar. As JPA’s assets are acquired at
~USD120/tonne as against UTCEM’s standalone EV/tonne of USD245, blended
FY19E EV/tonne appears meaningfully moderated at USD195/tonne.
Exhibit 16: EV/tonne appears moderated, adjusting for JPA’s assets
311
296
EV/ton (USD)
270
245
243
207
195
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Company, MOSL
JPA acquisition to be earnings dilutive in FY18/FY19…
We expect UTCEM to witness PBT dilution of 19% in FY18 and PBT dilution of 8% in
FY19 due to JPA’s acquisition. We estimate JPA’s acquisition to break even at PBT
level by 1HFY20 at ~76% utilization with EBITDA/tonne at INR1,150. We are
estimating 54%/72%/80% utilization for JPA in FY18/FY19/FY20. We expect JPA’s
EBITDA/ton for FY18/FY19/FY20 at INR650/INR900/INR1,200, led by its cost-
efficiency program, realization improvement, and positive operating leverage.
…but turn earnings accretive from FY20; valuations attractive
While UTCEM’s acquisition of JPA’s assets would be earnings-dilutive in the short
term, it would turn earnings-accretive from FY20. Assuming 80% utilization and
EBITDA/tonne of INR1,200 for JPA’s assets, the stock trades at FY20E EV/EBITDA of
8.4x. We believe valuations are attractive, given that UTCEM has got access to high
growth markets and should achieve all-India market share of ~21%. EV/tonne has
moderated ~20% from USD245/tonne (~50% premium to peers) to USD190-
195/tonne (25-30% premium to peers) post the acquisition of JPA’s assets.
Valuation and view
UTCEM would be in a formidable position post the JPA acquisition, with ~21%
market share. While in the short-term, the acquisition would be earnings-dilutive,
we believe addition of ~31% of the present capacity at virtually zero lead time is
critical for a large-scale player like UTCEM to retain market share. The expanded
capacity would give it an edge when there is an upturn in the industry. We maintain
our
Buy
rating. We value the stock at FY20E EV/EBITDA of 14x. Though the target
multiple might appear aggressive, we believe JPA’s FY20E earnings do not justify the
full potential of its assets. Our target price of INR4,936 implies 17% upside.
14 July 2017
9

Ultratech Cement
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income - Rec.
PBT
EO Expense/(Income)
PBT after EO expense
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Deferred liabilities
Secured Loan
Loans
Capital Employed
Goodwill
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal
Others
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2014
200,779
0.4
36,160
18.0
10,523
25,637
3,192
5,310
27,755
-956
28,711
7,266
25.3
21,445
20,731
-21.2
10.3
2015
226,565
12.8
39,153
17.3
11,331
27,822
5,475
6,515
28,863
0
28,863
8,715
30.2
20,147
20,147
-2.8
8.9
2016
237,088
4.6
46,266
19.5
12,970
33,296
5,117
4,807
32,986
0
32,986
9,284
28.1
23,702
23,702
17.6
10.0
2017
238,914
0.8
49,690
20.8
12,679
37,011
5,714
6,600
37,896
137
37,760
11,482
30.4
26,277
26,372
11.3
11.0
2018E
303,528
27.0
63,308
20.9
16,789
46,519
14,458
5,500
37,562
0
37,562
11,268
30.0
26,293
26,293
-0.3
8.7
2019E
375,374
23.7
83,315
22.2
19,230
64,085
17,028
7,500
54,558
0
54,558
15,276
28.0
39,281
39,281
49.4
10.5
(INR Million)
2020E
430,957
14.8
100,909
23.4
21,095
79,814
18,009
9,000
70,806
0
70,806
21,242
30.0
49,564
49,564
26.2
11.5
(INR Million)
2020E
2,745
315,736
318,481
37052
236,359
236,359
591,892
0
469,825
81,537
388,288
30,000
29,500
208,620
34,155
16,129
127,975
30,360
64,516
55,028
9,488
144,104
591,892
2014
2,742
168,233
170,975
22958
51,993
51,993
245,927
250,778
92,059
158,718
20,384
53,917
64,489
23,684
12,810
2,775
25,220
51,614
41,884
9,730
12,875
245,927
2015
2,744
192,659
195,403
27171
98,149
98,149
320,723
223,266
12,417
210,849
20,689
56,483
66,237
26,428
12,032
2,006
25,771
33,535
29,638
3,898
32,702
320,723
2016
2,744
213,574
216,318
28100
81,698
81,698
326,116
239,127
12,241
226,886
14,145
57,932
83,020
22,776
14,149
22,352
23,743
55,867
51,721
4,146
27,153
326,116
2017
2,745
236,665
239,410
32276
85,359
85,359
357,045
0
256,748
24,424
232,324
8,778
74,087
76,573
22,250
12,762
22,177
19,384
34,717
30,415
4,302
41,857
357,045
2018E
2,745
256,753
259,498
32276
246,359
246,359
538,133
0
407,525
41,213
366,313
40,000
29,500
160,596
28,031
13,278
91,993
27,294
58,276
48,686
9,590
102,321
538,133
2019E
2,745
283,294
286,039
33876
241,359
241,359
561,275
0
412,525
60,443
352,083
60,000
29,500
179,584
30,778
14,141
107,215
27,450
59,892
49,910
9,982
119,692
561,275
14 July 2017
10

Ultratech Cement
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton (Cap-USD)
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoIC
RoE
RoCE
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Wkg. Capital Turnover (Days)
Leverage Ratio
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Debt/Equity
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Op. Profit/(Loss) before Tax
Interest/Dividends Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
EO expense
CF from Operating incl EO Exp.
(inc)/dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from investments
Issue of Shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2014
75.6
114.0
623
9.0
13.5
53.2
35.3
6.4
5.4
29.8
305
0.2
12.3
12.8
10.8
1.2
23
76
43
23
1.2
8.0
0.3
2015
73.4
114.7
712
9.0
14.2
54.7
35.0
5.6
5
28.6
279
0.2
9.2
11.0
9.3
1.0
19
48
43
53
2.0
5.1
0.5
2016
86.4
133.6
788
9.5
12.8
46.5
30.1
5.1
5
23.6
252
0.2
9.7
11.5
9.3
1.0
22
80
35
42
1.5
6.5
0.4
2017
96.1
142.3
872
10.0
12.1
41.8
28.2
4.6
4.5
21.8
251
0.2
10.2
11.6
9.7
1.1
19
46
34
64
2.2
6.5
0.4
2018E
95.8
156.9
945
15.0
18.2
41.9
25.6
4.3
3.9
18.8
214
0.4
10.1
10.5
8.8
1.3
16
59
34
123
2.8
3.2
0.9
2019E
143.1
213.1
1,042
20.0
16.2
28.1
18.9
3.9
3.1
13.8
202
0.5
12.1
14.4
10.0
1.1
14
49
30
116
3.0
3.8
0.8
2020E
180.6
257.4
1,160
25.0
16.1
22.3
15.6
3.5
2.7
11.4
195
0.6
14.2
16.4
11.5
1.1
14
47
29
122
3.2
4.4
0.7
2014
36,160
5,310
-3,367
-3,399
34,704
-956
35,660
-23,348
12,312
-2,830
-26,178
69
-2,092
-3,192
-2,887
-8,102
1,380
1,427
2,775
2015
39,153
6,515
-4,503
-20,596
20,569
0
20,569
-63,766
-43,197
-2,566
-66,332
7,150
46,156
-5,475
-2,870
44,962
-801
2,775
2,006
2016
46,266
4,807
-8,355
25,896
68,613
0
68,613
-22,464
46,149
-1,449
-23,913
244
-16,452
-5,117
-3,029
-24,354
20,346
2,006
22,352
2017
49,690
6,600
-7,307
-14,878
34,104
137
33,967
-12,749
21,218
-16,155
-28,904
4
3,662
-5,714
-3,190
-5,238
-175
22,352
22,177
2018E
63,308
5,500
-11,268
9,352
66,892
0
66,892
-182,000
-115,108
44,587
-137,413
-1,420
161,000
-14,458
-4,785
140,337
69,816
22,177
91,993
2019E
83,315
7,500
-13,676
-2,150
74,989
0
74,989
-25,000
49,989
0
-25,000
-6,361
-5,000
-17,028
-6,380
-34,768
15,221
91,993
107,215
2020E
100,909
9,000
-18,066
-3,651
88,191
0
88,191
-27,300
60,891
0
-27,300
-9,148
-5,000
-18,009
-7,975
-40,131
20,760
107,215
127,975
14 July 2017
11

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12