5 June 2017

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Today’s top research idea

Key takeaways from HUL Analyst meet: Strengthening the Core; Higher

premiumization to drive earnings

v

Clear focus on thought leadership far ahead of peers and improving

accessibility of their core brands in each segment.

v

Strengthening the Naturals portfolio across segments.

v

Zero based budgeting across all areas will yield significant margin

improvement

We believe that a confluence of positives including expectations of normal

monsoon, moderate inflation, government schemes aiding growth, weak base of

the past three years, end of commodity price deflation, continued

premiumization, and cost savings is leading to strong outlook for rural-focused

companies. HUVR with its high salience of rural sales, wide brand portfolio, and

broad distribution reach is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this

confluence of positive factors.

Research covered

Cos/Sector

Key Highlights

GST

Clears the last lap

Hindustan Unilever Strengthening the Core; Higher premiumization to drive earnings

Fifth consecutive month of positive returns for Nifty; midcaps

Bulls & Bears

underperform

Cement

Capacity addition slowing; to revert to mean in FY19

Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors

Automobiles

Operating loss increases on RM cost; Net debt will continue to rise

SAIL

eroding equity value; Maintain Sell

Piping hot news

Export volumes rose in FY17 on low commodity prices

v

Merchandise export value may have grown just 5% in 2016-17 after two

Quote of the day

Investing is the intersection of economics

and psychology.

successive years of contraction, but volumes of outbound shipments rose for

most goods at a faster pace, showed the data compiled by the commerce

ministry.

Chart of the Day: India’s share in world market cap at seven year high

Over last 12 months, world market cap has increased 17.6% (USD11.1t); India’s market cap has increased 33%

Source: Industry, MOSL

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

In the news today

Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link

1

The government’s move to keep

the Goods and Services Tax (GST)

rates on various textiles —

including cotton fibre — and low-

priced garments roughly around

the current levels will prevent any

flare up in prices, industry

executives said on Sunday…

2

Diamond exporters have called the government’s move to introduce a

0.25% goods and services tax rate (GST) on rough diamonds to keep a trail

on such items ‘retrograde’. However, the bullion sector heaved a sigh of

relief, as gold, silver and processed diamonds — including jewellery — will

be taxed at 3% (and not more) under the new indirect tax regime, against

the current tax incidence of around 2%. Nevertheless, it has now sought a

cut in the basic Customs duty on gold from the current 10% to discourage

smuggling…

Under GST regime, your

clothes bill unlikely to rise

GST: Even as bullion sector heaves sigh of relief, diamond

exporters dub Centre’s move on .25% rate introduction retrograde

3

Modi government’s waterways

plan sails through green hurdle

in Uttar Pradesh

With a BJP government firmly in

saddle in Uttar Pradesh, a key

environmental hurdle holding up

the National Waterways project

has has been removed…

4

Tax sops may top agenda at

telecom meet

Telcos are expected to seek

immediate cuts in levies and

rationalisation of taxes when they

meet an inter-ministerial group

(IMG) that's been set up to look

into their financial woes from June

12 to 17 . The panel will start by

meeting the more stressed

companies such as Reliance

CommunicationsBSE -0.48 %…

5

Andhra Pradesh’s plan for

capital Amaravati faces green

hurdle

6

Infosys Ltd’s hope of generating

more business by offering data

analytics solutions to its

manufacturing clients has received

a setback. Chief executive officer

(CEO) Vishal Sikka’s former SAP SE

colleague and the head of

company’s industrial internet

business, Gordon Muehl, has

resigned…

5 June 2017

7

After NTPC’s Rs 28,000 cr

capex plan revealed, Centre

waives buyback offer that

could have netted it Rs 8,000

cr

Infosys industrial internet

business head Gordon Muehl

quits

Andhra Pradesh’s plan to build a

new capital city, Amaravati, has

run into a potential roadblock. The

environment ministry has formed

an expert panel to examine the

state government’s master plan

for the capital after several

environmental concerns were

raised over the project…

With NTPC flagging a whopping Rs

28,000-crore capex plan for FY18,

the Centre has exempted the

power PSU from buyback

obligation, which could have

fetched the exchequer nearly Rs

8,000 crore in the current fiscal...

2

5 June 2017

Update

GST

Clears the last lap

All set for July roll out

GST council in its 15th meeting on June3, 2017 finalized the rates for the pending

commodities (refer exhibit 1 for details) and cleared the pending rules related to

transition provisions and returns paving way for the roll out of GST wef July 1,

2017. Once again the government has struck a fine balance to contain inflation by

keeping the tax rates as close to the current rates as possible. The council has also

increased the input tax credit (during transition) on items chargeable at more than

18% GST rates to 60% (v/s 40% as proposed earlier) to address the concerns of

Industry on loss of input credit; leading to destocking in the supply chain. Further,

a committee has been formed to address the complaints on anti-profiteering with

the roll out of GST. In our view the changes in the tax rates will positively impact

Page industries; while, it will be neutral for Arvind, Titan and Britannia amongst

our coverage universe.

Textile & garments witness rejigs: Positive – Page; Neutral- Arvind

n

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The tax rates for the textile industry have been increased to 5% for natural

fabric/ yarn (exempt earlier) and 18% for manmade fabric/yarn (v/s ~12.5%

earlier). However, they can claim an input credit (currently not available for

exempted category) which will partially offset the increase in the tax rates.

We believe that the companies will be able to pass on the increase in the tax

rates in the organized B2B chains; however, for the other supplies there may be

a slight adverse impact.

The tax rates on readymade garments under GST have been fixed at 5% for

selling price less than INR1000 and at 12% for products above INR1000.

We believe for the industry as a whole the rates have been kept neutral with a

slight decrease in the tax rates (~1-2%) for category below INR1000 and increase

of (~5-6%) for category above INR1000. However, for category above INR1000

we note that the companies will be allowed to avail an additional input credit of

~ 3-4%.

We believe that the lower tax rate applicable to the innerwear category will aid

the ongoing premiumization.

Impact for Page Industries: Positive

as current indirect tax incidence for the

company was around 8-9%. It is also positive against expectations of 18% rate

on all branded garments.

Impact for Arvind : Neutral

as the price increase in the branded garments and

textiles is likely to be passed on. However, may have a slight adverse impact

during transition.

Ø

Under the current structure, the total output tax the company pays on

readymade portfolio is VAT 5.5% and Excise 1.2% while the input credit

which is not available is ~3.8%. Therefore, the total impact is 10.5%.

Ø

~80% of the readymade portfolio is above INR1000 which is levied with 12%

GST rate. Here, the company will have to take a price hike of 1.5% which

company shall be able to pass on.~20% of the portfolio is below INR1,000

which is primarily Unlimited brand and is levied with 5% GST.

5 June 2017

3

Ø

On textiles currently, output tax is Nil and input credit which company is not

able avail is ~3%. This has been levied with 5% GST rate.

Ø

50% of the portfolio is exports which will not be impacted; while, in balance

the company is confident of passing on the hike except for unorganized

channel which may get impacted.

Ø

Management has highlighted that during the transition period, the company

may face difficulty with respect to existing stock where it will have to take a

hit in near term.

Jewelry taxes hiked to 3%; Likely to be passed on: Neutral – Titan

n

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Indirect tax rate for Jewelry have been made slightly higher at 3% than exiting

rate of around 2% but was lower than fears of 5% rate. We believe that this will

not make too much of a difference to the category.

Impact for Titan: Neutral.

Given the pricing power of the

Tanishq

brand we do

not think passing on the increase of 1% will be any problem; but, if GST is

effectively implemented Titan which has only 5% share of the total jewelry

market in India could be a gainer over the medium term.

Biscuits taxed 18% across categories: Neutral- Britannia

n

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n

n

The GST rate for biscuits was fixed at a flat rate of 18% as against the current

practice wherein the products below Rs100/kg price points were given a

concession.

We believe that the increase in the tax rates in this category is likely to affect

players like Parle and Priya Gold which have over 50% of their portfolio is under

the INR 100/kg price point

The value segment was already declining in salience over the past 4-5 years.

Price increases/ grammage reduction in the value segment may give a further

boost to premiumization by narrowing the gap between the value and the mid-

range segment; where, Britannia has ~70% of its portfolio.

Impact for Britannia: Neutral

as it was paying anywhere between 15-17%

indirect tax on its biscuits over INR 100 per kg which is ~90% of portfolio. Less

than 10% of its portfolio was priced below INR 100 per kg (Tiger brand). We

believe that the rates for the mid to premium category are in line with the

industry expectation of 18%.

Current Effective

Tax Rate

2%

5-17%

GST

Rate

3%

18%

Exhibit 1: Changes in tax rates for major categories

Sectors

Gems and Jewelry

Biscuits

Textile & Garments

Ready Made Garments

- Above 1000

- Below 1000

Textiles

Natural

Man made

6-8%

5-7%

0%

12.5%

12%

5%

5%

18%

5 June 2017

4

Transitional input credits increased; Destocking to ease in few categories

n

n

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GST council has hiked the input duty credit on inventory bought before the roll

out of GST to 60% (vs 40% as proposed earlier), as per industry demand. The

increase has been made applicable to items which are taxed at a GST rate

exceeding 18% GST. This in our view will partially address the concerns of

destocking in the supply chain for some of the categories during the migration

to the era of GST.

Impact on room air conditioners /Consumer durables:

The large Multi Brand

outlets/ distributors had stopped buying since mid-May on concerns over input

credit on inventory post July as 40% credit would result in a 3-4% loss. This

resulted in a 20% drop in air-con primary sales in May.

We believe that with this revision the primary sales should restart in June.

5 June 2017

5

2 June 2017

Hindustan Unilever

BSE SENSEX

31,273

S&P CNX

9,654

Update

| Sector: Consumer

CMP: INR1,087

TP: INR1,215(+12%)

Strengthening the Core

Higher premiumization to drive earnings

Buy

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

M.Cap. (INR b)

M.Cap. (USD b)

Avg Val, INRm

Free float (%)

HUVR IN

2164.246

1101 / 783

13/11/9

1937.3

28.9

1208

32.8

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2017 2018E 2019E

Net Sales

313.0 348.3 395.0

EBITDA (Rs b)

60.5

70.0

82.3

Net Profit

42.5

49.3

58.4

EPS

19.6

22.8

27.0

EPS Gr. (%)

1.9

16.1

18.4

BV/Sh. (INR)

30.8

31.8

33.6

P/E (x)

55.4

47.7

40.3

P/BV (x)

35.3

34.2

32.4

RoE (%)

65.6

72.8

82.5

RoCE (%)

87.3

96.6 109.6

Shareholding pattern (%)

As On

Promoter

DII

FII

Others

Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16

67.2

5.7

13.3

13.9

67.2

5.8

13.1

13.9

67.2

4.8

14.2

13.8

We attended HUVR annual investor meet 2017. Following are the key takeaways:

n

Clear focus on thought leadership far ahead of peers and improving

accessibility of their core brands in each segment.

n

Far more emphasis on premiumization across segments than earlier.

n

Strengthening the Naturals portfolio across segments keeping

Lever Ayush

as

the master brand in addition to other specific natural brands like Indulekha,

St’ Ives and the new skin and hair brand Citra.

n

Zero based budgeting across all areas will we believe yield far more in terms

of margins than we had anticipated, particularly when allied with strong

premiumization.

n

Increase in sampling and sachets to drive market development of premium

products and formats of the future.

n

Building strong capabilities across channels.

n

A confluence of positives including expectations of normal monsoon,

moderate inflation, government schemes aiding consumption growth, weak

base of the past three years, end of commodity price deflation, continued

premiumization, and cost savings is leading to outlook for rural-focused

companies being brighter than in the past few years

n

For HUVR, the salience of rural sales is one of the highest, brand portfolio is

the widest, and distribution reach is the broadest among peers, making it

uniquely positioned to take advantage of the confluence of positive factors.

n

We expect earnings CAGR of 17% over FY17-19, far superior than the 6-11%

for the past 3/5/10 years. This along with best-of-the-breed return ratios and

dividend yield justifies HUVR’s premium valuations. The stock trades at 40x

FY19E EPS. We reiterate Buy with a price target of INR1,215 (45x FY19E EPS;

5% premium to 3-year average).

n

FII Includes depository receipts

Stock Performance (1-year)

Hind. Unilever

Sensex - Rebased

1,150

1,050

950

850

750

Delivery and Strategy going forward:

FY17 was a challenging year with

markets remaining subdued (urban and rural), commodity cost inching up and

extreme climatic conditions. In the latter half of the year when the markets

were just witnessing an uptick in demand, demonetization pulled the demand

back. Even in this tough environment HUVR has delivered a resilient

performance of 4% USG and 1% UVG with 40bp improvement in margins.

Going forward things looks even more positive for rural-focused consumer

companies like HUVR than in the past four years (“Juggernaut

moves

forward”).

For the company’s core strategy remains the same but with

renewed focus.

5 June 2017

6

Key thrusts for the future are:

n

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Strengthening the Core brands (Surf

Excel, Lux, Red Label, Kissan, Vim

and

Dove):

The core portfolio for HUVR is distinctive for different parts of India.

Apart from gaining market share, the key focus is on making the core business

aspirational, increasing the size of the pie and lead market penetration. Every

12-24 months, company looks to renovate or innovate the brands to make it

relevant and aspirational. They have been investing behind market development

to increase its size and also making it more sustainable. Categories like male

grooming, hair conditioners, cleaning liquids, fabric conditioners, hand wash and

face wash are witnessing strong double digit growths led by market

development efforts by HUVR. With greater reach across channels the company

is in a better position to lead the market and gain share across categories.

Accelerating premiumization across categories:

Company is looking to

accelerate the process of premiumization across categories and brands. By

premiumizing the company offers higher order benefits at a higher price.

Premiumization in detergents is far more important compared to other

categories due to the 100% penetration levels. The premium brands (Rin + Surf

Excel) have been growing ahead of the market for HUVR and still there is huge

scope as only 1 in 10 washes in India uses a HUVR premium laundry powder.

‘Matics’ has been another big success. Unlike detergents, premiumization has

been slower in soaps as liquid soaps and body wash gels are still very small as of

now. In the skin care segment company is also looking to accelerate the through

trend setting innovations across brands like Ponds, Lakme and Fair & Lovely. E.g.

for premiumisation – Introduced water saving detergent bar that delivers

superior brightness. In dish wash the company has introduced Vim bar with

Pudina to fight grease and smell and in detergents Wheel has been fortified with

lemon. In skin care, introduced weightless mousse.

Strengthening the Naturals Portfolio:

Company has now built a strong naturals

portfolio based on expertise & efficacy through the existing brands (Tresemme,

Clinic plus, Vim

and

Fair & Lovely)

as well as extending their presence in new/

recent Ayurvedic brand (Ayush,

Indulekha, St. Ives

and

Citra).

Company is now

looking to strengthen its natural portfolio using existing brands, building Ayush

as the master brand (will be rolled out across the country from just South India

as of now, where it has received excellent response) and also bringing specialist

brands (Indulekha - Ayurvedic medicinal hair oil brand and Citra – mainly

focused on skin care, using natural herbs from ASEAN and Japan, price

positioning at a premium to Ayush) in the market place.

Zero based budgeting (ZBB) & Symphony to drive savings:

ZBB which is a 6-

stage approach for driving sustainable cost reduction by changing the mindset

of the employees. Symphony program (for end to end value chain) is an

organization wide engagement to drive savings in material costs, non-material

costs, marketing & trade spends and overheads. This will help reduce any cost

which doesn’t add value. There was a 1.5x increase in savings from 2014 to 2016

through these programs. We think that ZBB across all areas will yield far more

on margins than what the market was expecting earlier particularly when it ends

up questioning all set practices of the company. The company has identified 5

out of its 29 factories for implementation of first stage of ZBB. Assuming overall

costs were 100 as much as 45 was identified as non- value added. Of the 45, ~16

7

5 June 2017

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were targeted for culling and savings are being made on 12. There has also been

healthy improvement in inventory days through robust sales and operations

planning, optimization of networks and learnings from other industries.

Increasing use of Sampling and sachets:

Company has been increasing the use

of science based sampling across categories for market development. This has

helped company drive trials of their products and thus better growth. Product

experience has been elevated through the use of food ambassadors, dry

sampling (small SKUs free with a large one) and partnering (giving samples with

other FMCG company’s products). Access packs CAGR growth in case of foods

for example has increased from 30% in 2012 to 100% by 2016.

Building strong capabilities across channels:

Company is strengthening the

existing channels (Wholesale, General trade [GT] and Pharmacy) by increasing

number of stores for its products, more assortment across stores and increasing

frequency of refill. Technology and talent will play a key role in effective

coverage and increasing throughput from current store. Technology is helping

company to make tailor made assortment for every store. Apart from the

traditional channels, it has been building channels of the future (Modern trade

and E-commerce) to be present across all relevant channels for consumers and

also be in top in that channel. The market share for HUVR in e-commerce is

higher than Modern trade (MT) and the market share in MT is higher than in GT.

If GT market share is 100, MT is 118 and e-commerce is 130-140. Management

believes they can sustain this advantage over peers because of wider product

offerings, their leading brands appearing earlier on screens, focusing on better

presentation for faster conversion, ahead of time skills developed on

ecommerce and modern trade and learning’s from Unilever’s global experience.

Valuation and view:

We expect HUVR to report 17% PAT CAGR over FY17-19

against 6.1% CAGR in the last three years, 10.6% CAGR in the last five years and

10.7% CAGR in the last 10 years. Valuations are not cheap at 40.1x FY19E EPS,

but we believe that given the potentially strong earnings growth, premium

valuations are justified, particularly as return ratios and dividend yield remain

best of the breed. We had upgraded the stock to BUY after the strong 4QFY17

results. We maintain our Buy rating and target price of INR1,215 (45x FY19E EPS;

5% premium to 3-year average).

New

Old

FY19E

402,179

82,323

58,367

FY18E

354,778

68,910

48,556

FY19E

398,676

78,893

55,973

FY18E

0.0%

1.6%

1.6%

Change

FY19E

0.9%

4.3%

4.3%

Exhibit 1: Changes to the model have resulted in 1.6%/4.3% change in FY18/FY19 EPS

FY18E

354,778

69,997

49,312

Sales

EBITDA

PAT

Source: Company, MOSL

5 June 2017

8

India Valuations Handbook

Strategy: Fifth consecutive month of positive returns for Nifty; midcaps underperform

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Bulls & Bears

Database Periodical | 5 June 2017

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Fifth consecutive month of positive returns for Nifty:

The Nifty has sustained its upward momentum and

delivered 3.4% returns in May, the fifth consecutive month of positive returns. Strong domestic liquidity, good

earnings season, progress on GST, and prediction of normal monsoon ensured that the momentum remained

intact. Midcaps have underperformed the Nifty for the first time in five months, reflecting the expensive

valuations in certain pockets (midcaps trading at 7% premium to large caps). Liquidity remains benign, with FII

flows of USD1.5b and Domestic MFs flows also at USD1.5b in May.

Earnings season concludes; Nifty PAT 6% ahead of estimate:

The last quarter of FY17 concluded with a modest

beat v/s expectations. MOSL Universe delivered 13.9% sales growth (our estimate was 14.2%), 9.3% EBITDA

growth (our estimate was 6.5%), and 28.7% PAT growth (our estimate was 23.3%). For the Nifty, sales grew

13.5% (our estimate was 13.4%), EBITDA grew 4.6% (our estimate was 3.4%), and PAT grew 15.2% (our estimate

was 8.6%). We have marginally revised the Sensex EPS upwards by 3% to INR1,349 for FY17, by 0.6% to INR1,581

for FY18 and by 0.9% to INR1,922 for FY19. However, just four companies (Tata Motors, Tata Steel, L&T and

Reliance) account for the entire INR50b delta in Nifty PAT over our estimate. The upgrade/downgrade ratio is

skewed in favor of downgrades, with 69 companies’ FY18E EPS getting downgraded by 3%+ v/s 46 companies’

FY18E EPS getting upgraded by 3%+.

Indian markets best performing in YTD CY17:

For CY17 YTD, India (+17%), MSCI EM (+17%), Korea (+16%),

Taiwan (+9%) and Indonesia (+8%) were the best performers among key global markets in local currency terms.

Among key markets, Russia (-18%) has delivered negative returns. MSCI EM (+25%) outperformed MSCI India

(+13%) in trailing 12 months. However, over the last five years, MSCI India has outperformed MSCI EM by 91%.

Sectoral performance trends; Healthcare underperformance continues:

In May, Pvt Banks (+8%), Consumer

(+7%), Technology (+6%), Auto (+6%) and Telecom (+1%) delivered positive returns, while Healthcare (-10%),

Media (-7%), Utilities (-5%) and PSU Banks (-3%) were laggards. Barring Healthcare, Technology, Oil and Utilities,

all other sectors trade at a premium to their respective LPA. In this edition of ‘Bulls & Bears’, we take a deep dive

into valuation metrics of the NBFC sector.

Valuation comfort lacking; downgraded ratings for 17 stocks in this earnings season:

The Nifty has delivered

~17% returns in YTD CY17, led by confluence of positive factors, namely strong liquidity, progress on GST,

prediction of normal monsoon, BJP’s strong performance in UP, and less than feared impact of demonetization.

Barring the month of May, midcaps have outperformed the Nifty consistently and now trade at a premium of 7%

to large caps. While the just-concluded earnings season was better than expectations on aggregate, the internals

do not suggest strong underlying operating recovery, as yet. Going forward, we note that GST could result in

material changes to our current optimistic 17% Nifty earnings growth forecast for FY18. We remain concerned

on valuations. We have downgraded the ratings of 17 stocks (largely owing to expensive valuations) in this

earnings season and have upgraded the ratings of five stocks. At current trailing P/E of 22.4x and forward P/E of

19x, we see limited triggers for further re-rating, unless accompanied by earnings revival. We prefer stocks with

earnings visibility, pricing power and operating catalysts. Our top ideas include: Yes Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata

Motors, Maruti, ITC, Britannia, Aurobindo Pharma, ONGC, Coal India, Hindalco, Amara Raja, and JK Cements.

Nifty MoM Change (%)

3.1

0.8

6.6

2.0

0.3

1.5

1.6

10.8

1.4

4.0

1.6

4.2

1.7

2.0

7.6

4.6

0.2

0.5

4.7

3.7

3.3

1.4

Exhibit 2: Nifty MoM change (%) — fourth consecutive month of positive return

3.4

0.1

4.8

5 June 2017

9

n

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Sectoral valuation trends; Consumer, Private Banks and Technology top outperformers: Consumer

trades

above its historical average valuations. At a P/Eof 39.3x, it is at 33% premium to its historical average, and at a

P/B of 11.6x, it is at 22% premium. Sales seems to have recovered gradually after demonetization in 4QFY17, a

lingering impact persists mostly for companies with greater exposure to rural regions and the wholesale

channel. 1HFY18 will have some effect of GST implementation.

Private Banks

are trading at 2.9x P/B, above their long-period average valuations (33% premium), driven by

continued outperformance of retail lenders and improvement in return ratios. The sector was the best-

performing in May (+8% return MoM). Loan growth at 25%+ for mid-sized banks and 15%+ for larger banks is

significantly ahead of system loan growth of ~6%.

The

Technology

sector trades at a P/E of 16.2x, near its historical average of 16.1x. 4QFY17 earnings started on a

soft note, with TCS and Infosys both reporting below-expectation revenue growth. The end was no better, with

organic growth guidance at HCLT weak and margins at TECHM a negative shock. Now that the seasonally weak

bit of the year is behind, expectations are of a revival in BFSI gradually through the year.

Relative to Sensex

P/E (%)

Current 10 Yr Avg

5

-16

15

-5

-38

-475

23

3

64

50

37

1

107

73

7

29

39

30

-31

-29

-42

-31

147

92

-15

-7

-

-

-38

-9

Relative to Sensex

P/B (%)

Current 10 Yr Avg

46

16

8

-17

-67

-60

47

19

19

47

14

-14

324

264

22

54

99

62

-53

-43

-45

-39

204

246

33

58

-21

1

-43

-23

Sector valuations: Defensives lag Cyclicals

Sector

Auto

Banks - Private

Banks - PSU

NBFC

Capital Goods

Cement

Consumer

Healthcare

Media

Metals

Oil & Gas

Retail

Technology

Telecom

Utilities

PE (x)

Current 10 Yr Avg Prem/Disc (%)

19.9

14.8

34.2

21.9

16.6

31.5

11.8

-74.8

-115.7

23.3

17.8

30.6

31.1

26.6

17.1

26

17.6

48.1

39.3

29.6

32.6

20.2

22.3

-9

26.4

22.6

16.9

13.1

12.3

6.5

11.1

11.8

-6.3

46.9

33.4

40.5

16.2

16.1

1

Loss

-

-

11.8

15.3

-22.5

PB (x)

Current 10 Yr Avg Prem/Disc (%)

4

3.1

29.8

2.9

2.2

33.1

0.9

1.1

-15.5

4

3.2

26.2

3.3

4.1

-19.4

3.1

2.3

34.9

11.6

9.5

22.3

3.4

4.1

-17.9

5.4

4.3

25.8

1.3

1.6

-18.3

1.5

1.6

-7.8

8.3

9.2

-9.5

3.7

4.2

-13.8

2.2

2.7

-20.1

1.6

2

-22.8

India’s share in world market cap above historical average

n

India’s share in the world market cap is at 2.6%, above at its long-term average

of 2.4%. Over last 12 months, world market cap has increased 17.6% (USD11.1t);

India’s market cap has increased 33%.

Market cap change in last 12 months (%)

0.8

40

2.0

0.5

1.1

1.5

0.6

6.7 26.9 5.6

3.5

Mkt cap chg 12M (%)

Curr Mcap (USD Tr)

Trend in India's contribution to world market cap (%)

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.6

India's Contribution to World Mcap (%)

3.3

Average of 2.4%

33

2.6

26

26

25

22

15

14

13

5

5 June 2017

10

Sector Update | 2 June 2017

Cement

Capacity addition slowing; to revert to mean in FY19

Bulk of the additions to come up in the South and East; unlikely to impact

pricing

n

We attended a conference call with cement equipment supplier, FL Smith on the likely

capacity additions in India over the next two years.

n

FL Smith expects aggregate capacity addition of ~30mt over FY17-19 - 10mt in FY18

and 20mt in FY19. This is against annual capacity addition of ~20mt over FY12-16,

indicating some slowdown in the pace of capacity addition. It expects most of the

addition to be in the South and the East.

n

We estimate capacity addition of 31mt over FY17-19, with the South and the East

accounting for ~58% of the incremental capacity. Given the strong pricing discipline in

the South, we believe higher capacity addition is unlikely to impact pricing in the

region. Similarly, given the robust demand in the East, we do not expect significant

price correction due to additional supplies.

Moderate slowdown in capacity addition

n

FL Smith estimates capacity addition of 12-13mt in FY17, which it expects would

reduce to ~10mt in FY18. Majority of the capacity addition would be in the

South, with players like NCL Industries and Penna Cement setting up capacities.

n

In FY19, capacity addition is likely to be higher at 20mt, with most of the

capacity addition being in the East and the South.

n

Going by FL Smith estimates, the average annual capacity addition over FY17-19

works out to ~15mt, indicating a slowdown from the annual addition of ~20mt

over FY12-16.

South and East likely to see highest capacity addition

n

FL Smith expects capacity addition to be the highest in the South and the East.

n

The South is likely to see the highest capacity addition over the next two years,

with investments by NCL Industries, Penna Cement, Shree Cement, Sagar

Cement, KCP Industries, JSW Cement, and My Home Industries in the region.

n

The North is likely to see limited clinker capacity addition over the next 12

months - additions by Wonder Cement and Ambuja Cement are likely to be

completed by the end of FY19.

n

The West is likely to see nominal capacity addition in the form of Chettinand

Cement in Sholapur and Penna Cement's grinding unit.

n

The Central markets are likely to see capacity addition only in the form of

UltraTech's 3.5mt in Dhar (Madhya Pradesh).

n

The East is likely to see capacity additions by JSW Cement, Emami Cement and

Shree Cement, which could put utilization levels in the region at risk.

5 June 2017

11

Other takeaways

n

Cement plant costing:

The cost of putting up a cement plant (excluding

infrastructure like rail/WHRS) works out to be INR5,500-6,000/t.

n

Enquiry levels picking up; conversion of enquiries to orders yet to begin:

While

ordering activity is still quite low, FL Smith has had a lot of enquiries from mid-

sized cement players in the last couple of quarters.

Our expectations

South and East to witness 58% of overall supply addition:

Our analysis suggests

that while capacity utilization in the South remains weak, capacity addition in the

region would be strong over the next two years. Additionally, the East, which was

reeling under severe pricing pressure till about three months ago, is also likely to

witness supply influx.

Exhibit 3: % share of capacity addition regionally

East

West

South

Central

North

19%

28%

11%

12%

29%

Source: Company, MOSL

Supply-heavy South and East markets unlikely to see major pricing pressure:

We

believe as pricing discipline is very strong in South India, higher capacity addition is

unlikely to impact pricing in the region. Similarly, given the robust demand in East

India, incremental supplies in the region are unlikely to translate into a significant

price correction.

5 June 2017

12

Sector Update | 2 June 2017

Automobiles

CMP: INR2,846

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

BJAUT IN

289.4

3122/2510

-7/-14/-7

TP: INR3,422 (+20%)

Buy

Below estimate at ~314k (est. 340k); -9.8% YoY

Domestic volume decline 15% YoY; exports down 3% YoY

n

BJAUT’s May 2017 sales were 313,756 units (lower than est. of ~340,000), -9.8% YoY.

Domestic volume declined 14.8% YoY (-2.2% MoM) while exports declined 2.6% YoY.

Overall FY18 volume est. at 4.02m asking for a residual monthly run rate of 337.9k

units.

Domestic volumes declined 14.8% YoY to 174k units (v/s est. of 190k units).

Motorcycle volumes declined by ~9.8% YoY as domestic motorcycle sales declined 13%

YoY to 156.5k as growth continues to be under pressure. Motorcycle exports declined

by 5.4% YoY.

Dominar volume for May-17 came in at ~2.7k units, led by a good response for the

product including exports of ~1.2k units. Management is very positive on the brand

going forward. As per management on Dominar, “sure to achieve the target of about

9,000-10,000 sales of Dominar. Whether it will happen by September or December

that is a question of time. The feel that we have from the buyers of Dominars is

fantastic but we may have to give it some more time than what we expected.”

Management indicated domestic volume recovery by 2QFY18 and has steady retail

market share at ~19% currently.

3W volumes still not recovered as the category were the worst hit on demonetization

impact. Domestic 3Ws declined by 28% YoY while 3W exports continue its growth

momentum for the second consecutive month and grew 20% YoY.

The stock trades at 18.9x/15.9 FY18E/19E EPS. Maintain Buy.

M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 840.6/13.1

Financial & Valuation (INR b)

Y/E MARCH

2017 2018E 2019E

Sales

217.8 246.6 280.5

EBITDA

44.2 50.3 58.7

NP

38.3 43.5 51.6

Adj. EPS (INR)

132

150

178

EPS Gr. (%)

-2.6 13.7 18.5

BV/Sh. (INR)

589

661

732

RoE (%)

25.3 24.1 25.6

RoCE (%)

24.6 23.3 24.8

Payout (%)

50.5 52.0 60.0

Valuation

P/E (x)

21.5 18.9 16.0

P/BV (x)

4.8

4.3

3.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.6 12.8 10.6

Div. Yield (%)

1.9

2.3

2.8

n

n

n

n

n

Snapshot of volumes for May-17

YoY

Company Sales

Bajaj Auto

Motorcycles

Total Two-

Wheelers

Three-Wheelers

Domestic

Exports

May-17 May-16

313,756 347,655

277,115 307,344

277,115

36,641

174,047

139,709

307,344

40,311

204,234

143,421

YoY (%)

chg

-9.8

-9.8

-9.8

-9.1

-14.8

-2.6

MoM

(%)

MoM

FY18YTD FY17YTD

Apr-17

chg

(%) chg

329,800 -4.9 643,556 677,764 -5.0

293,932 -5.7 571,047 599,242 -4.7

293,932

35,868

177,887

151,913

-5.7

2.2

-2.2

-8.0

571,047 599,242 -4.7

72,509 78,522 -7.7

351,934 430,367 -18.2

291,622 247,397 17.9

FY18

estimate

4,022,263

3,553,944

3,553,944

468,319

2,503,807

1,518,456

Residual

Residual

Monthly

Gr. (%) Growth (%)

Run rate

9.7

10.4

10.4

5.0

11

7.6

13.1

13.8

13.8

7.7

18.0

5.4

337,871

298,290

298,290

39,581

215,187

122,683

5 June 2017

13

Tata Motors

CMP: INR479

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

TTMT IN

3395.9

1525/22.8

599 / 417

1/-9/-11

TP: INR635 (+33%)

Buy

Above est at 38.3k units (v/s est 34.4k), decline of 4% YoY

PVs grew 24% YoY led by new launches; CVs decline by 12% YoY

n

Tata Motors May-17 sales volumes declined by 4% YoY (+24% MoM) to 38,361 units

(v/s est 34,406 units) led by lower than expected decline in CV volumes post pre

buying.

n

While PV segment with 24% YoY growth in volumes restricted further decline in

overall sales. Cars volume grew 24% YoY led by continued strong demand of Tiago,

Tigor and Hexa.

n

The MHCV segment demand for Tata Motors was lower on the back of severe global

supply constraints of Fuel Injection Pumps for BS4 engines along with lackluster

demand post pre-buying after ban on BS 3 vehicles during March 2017. Management

said "The market continues to remain weak and the demand has still not picked up.

There are early signs of retails of BS4 vehicles but it has still been slow. The sale in

M&HCV was affected primarily due to severe global supply constraints of Fuel

Injection Pumps for BS4 engines. These issues are expected to be resolved on short

notice with full capacity available as of July 2017. On the SCV and Pick-up segments,

there is a strong sales recovery with full availability of BS4 products and good market

response to new variants like Xenon Yodha and Ace Mega."

n

Total CV volumes declined by ~12% YoY (+59% MoM). Overall M&HCV sales (incl

exports) declined by ~33% YoY to 10,286 units (v/s est 7,485 units)

n

LCV sales (incl exports) increased by 7% YoY to 17,131 units (est 11,571 units).

n

The stock trades at 15.5x/7.3x FY18E/19E consol. EPS respectively. Maintain Buy.

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E MARCH

2017 2018E 2019E

Net Sales

2,697 3,009 3,722

EBITDA

369.1 410.3 594.7

NP

67.3 104.6 223.6

Adj. EPS (INR) 19.8 30.8

65.8

EPS Gr. (%)

-48.4 55.4 113.8

BV/Sh. (INR) 171.0 203.0 270.1

RoE (%)

9.8 16.5

27.8

RoCE (%)

9.2 10.4

17.3

Payout (%)

0.0

1.1

0.5

Valuations

P/E (x)

24.2 15.5

7.3

P/BV (x)

2.8

2.4

1.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

5.8

4.2

2.4

Div. Yield (%)

0.0

0.1

0.1

Snapshot of volumes for May-17

YoY

Company Sales

Tata Motors

HCV's

LCV's

CV's

Cars

UV's

May-17 May-16

38,361

10,286

17,131

27,417

9,840

1,104

40,071

15,276

15,960

31,236

7,925

910

YoY (%)

chg

-4.3

-32.7

7.3

-12.2

24.2

21.3

MoM

MoM

(%)

Apr-17

FY18YTD FY17YTD

(%) chg

chg

30,973

6,231

10,968

17,199

12,048

1,726

23.9

65.1

56.2

59.4

-18.3

-36.0

69,334

16,517

28,099

44,616

21,888

2,830

79,453

28,393

31,409

59,802

17,200

2,451

-12.7

-41.8

-10.5

-25.4

27.3

15.5

FY18

estimate

626,588

184,978

233,196

418,174

178,364

30,050

Residual

Residual

Monthly

Gr. (%) Growth (%)

Run rate

15.5

5.2

11.6

8.7

30.2

47.0

20.4

14.2

15.5

14.9

30.6

51.3

55,725

16,846

20,510

37,356

15,648

2,722

5 June 2017

14

2 June 2017

Results Update | Sector: Metals

SAIL

Sell

BSE SENSEX

31,273

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Avg Val, INRm

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

9,654

SAIL IN

4,130

235.4 / 3.7

69 / 41

-8/-3/19

408

25.0

CMP: INR57

TP: INR30(-47%)

Operating loss increases on RM cost

Net debt will continue to rise eroding equity value; Maintain Sell

SAIL’s EBITDA loss increased from INR0.4b in 3QFY17 to INR2.6b in 4QFY17 (est.

profit of INR0.3b) as higher raw material cost offset the benefit of higher

realization and lower employee cost. Adj. loss after tax of INR7.7b (est. INR13b,

due to tax credits) was down from INR7.9b in 3Q on FX gains in other income.

For FY17, EBITDA improved from a loss of INR33b in FY16 to just break-even of

INR0.4b. Adj. loss after tax reduced from INR38b in FY16 to INR27b in FY17.

n

Steel sales declined 9% YoY to 3.4mt (est. of 3.5mt), on a strong base and

some impact of demonetization of currency notes. Crude steel production

was marginally higher YoY to 3.8mt.

n

Pure steel sales realization increased ~3% QoQ to INR32,700/t, lower than

the peers on account of higher mix of long-products.

n

EBITDA/t declined INR640 QoQ to negative INR767 on higher raw material

cost.

n

Borrowings increased by ~INR26b QoQ to ~INR414b. Number of employees

has reduced by 5.6k YoY to 82.9k002E

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

2017 2018E

Sales

448.8

542.4

EBITDA

5.3

12.5

NP

-25.5

-51.9

Adj. EPS (INR)

-6.2

-12.6

EPS Gr(%)

-31.0

103.3

BV/Sh. (INR)

89.1

76.5

RoE (%)

-6.7

-15.2

RoCE (%)

-2.3

-2.7

P/E (x)

-9.2

-4.5

P/BV (x)

0.6

0.7

2019E

652.2

71.9

1.5

0.4

-102.9

76.9

0.5

4.3

155.2

0.7

Net debt will continue to rise eroding equity value; Maintain Sell

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

SAIL’s margins would remain under-pressure in the near term on elevated

coking coal cost. Realizations are also weak on correction in global steel prices.

While operating leverage would drive gains over the medium-term, delivery on

volumes is key. SAIL has been facing issues in ramping-up capacity. While it is

guiding ~16mt sales in FY18, we estimate it would be lower at ~15mt. Margins

are expected to improve but not enough to absorb the cash drag. We estimate

net debt would continue to increase and erode equity value. TP is INR30/sh,

based on 0.4x FY18E P/BV. Maintain

Sell.

Quarterly Performance (Standalone) – INR m

5 June 2017

15

In conversation

1. GMR Infra soars 14% after FY17 debt drops 47%, operational

performance strong, Madhu Terdal, Group CFO

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

Gross debt down to Rs 19,856 crore in FY17 from Rs 37,480 crore in FY16 & Net

debt / EBITDA at 4.3 from 10.2 in FY16

EBITDA grew 12% to Rs 3,497 crore and margin expanded 400 basis points to 42

percent

Delhi and Hyderabad Airport declared dividends for the first time.

Won arbitration award for Maldives Airport and received compensation of Rs

1,800 crore during the year.

Company can get Rs 800-1,000 crore from Kakinada land and Rs 300-400 crore

from sale of another land parcel

Chhattisgarh power project is now under SDR & the loan of Rs 2,992 crore was

converted into equity, by which consortium lenders own 52 percent of equity of

the project

EPC order book jumped to around Rs 7,100 crore after adding Eastern Dedicated

Freight Corridor railway project of Rs 2,281 crore.

2. Expect to hit 70% business in B2C space, says kwality, Nawal

Sharma, President & Head-Business Transformation

n

n

Consumer business which is area of strategic focus has grown by 31% percent.

FY17 at 60:40 in favor of B2B / B2C but over the next three-four years time we

want to hit 70% B2C space", said Sharma.

3. Wellness segment contributes majority of growth: Thyrocare's

Velumani, A Velumani, Chairman, CEO & MD

n

n

n

n

Don't see any challenges for FY18, faster growth of competition puts more

pressure on unorganised players than on organised players.

Preventive care segment is doing exceedingly good,

Wellness segment contributes majority of the growth

To remain focused on core competence i.e.diagnosis and would continue to

remain focused because of higher EBITDA and better multiples

4. Expect 15% growth in June; GST will not lead to price hike:

Blue Star, B Thiagarajan, Joint MD & Nilesh Gupta, Managing

Partner at Vijay Sales

n

n

n

n

Slowdown in demand is more than anticipated.

On GST front, real calculations reveal that prices will not be going up due to GST

Prices may go up due to commodity prices or something like that.

Expects 15 percent growth in June.

5 June 2017

16

From the think tank

Resolve bad loans for quick growth

n

India’s GDP growth slumped to a two-year low of 6.1% in the January-to-March

quarter from 7% in the third quarter of 2016-17. This shows a noticeable impact

of demonetisation that kicked off a month into the third quarter. This is not

unexpected. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has maintained its earlier full-

year growth estimate at 7.1% in its provisional estimates of national income for

2016-17. This is in line with the Economic Survey’s projection that

demonetisation would impact economic growth, up to 0.5% in real terms. Real

gross value added (GVA), by excluding indirect taxes from GDP, slowed down to

5.6% in the March quarter, factoring in a higher adjustment for inflation. Part of

the reason is also statistical.

Pharma sector needs a RERA-type law

n

In a widely publicised speech given at the opening of a hospital in Surat on April

17, Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicated that his government may bring in a

legal framework under which doctors will have to prescribe generic medicines.

During the same occasion he said, “It is the Government’s responsibility that

everyone should get health services at minimal price”. It is a noble intention and

indeed the responsibility of the government to make healthcare accessible and

affordable to all. However, I might add, without compromising on the quality

and choice of care. A landmark act introduced in the US in 1984, “the Drug Price

Competition and Patent Term Restoration Act” transformed the drug market in

that country by allowing a generic medicine, that has demonstrated mere

bioequivalence with the branded drug, to be dispensed as a substitute for a

prescription of the branded drug.

How centre’s new procurement policy to boost make in India

could make India run afoul of multilateral trade framework

n

The ever-larger presence of the State in the Indian economy is driven home

again by the recently approved public procurement policy for local goods for

boosting ‘Make in India’. The Indian state and its arms, namely government

ministries, departments, public sector bodies and organisations, will now be a

major market for home-made goods. This is expected to provide a major boost

to domestic manufacturing under ‘Make in India’. Using public procurement for

driving industrial production is not a new strategy. Countries with large state

sectors have often tried to do so. One of the major examples is China. China has

used procurement by its state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as an effective tool for

benefitting local enterprises. Given that SOEs are major players in the Chinese

economy both from production and consumption perspectives, many producer

SOEs have benefitted from procurement policies favouring local enterprises.

5 June 2017

17

International

Trade realities expose the absurdity of a brexit ‘no deal’

n

No deal is better than a bad deal. That, as almost everybody must now know, is

the position of the woman who is and would be UK prime minister. But this

proposition is either empty or nonsensical. Why empty? The deal the UK will

have with the EU has to be worse than the one it has now: that is what Brexit

means. Why, after all, would the EU offer better terms to a non-member? So, it

will be bad. Theresa May’s proposition only has meaning if she indicates what

sort of bad deal, in the range of bad deals, would be worse than no deal at all.

But this the prime minister has not deigned to indicate. Why nonsensical? For

trade to continue after Brexit, there must be deals. Brexiters find it difficult to

understand that the UK must co-operate with the EU, even after Brexit. Co-

operation means deals. The question is not whether the UK needs deals, but

rather which deals it must have.

5 June 2017

18

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

Valuation snapshot

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja

Ashok Ley.

Bajaj Auto

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

Eicher Mot.

Endurance Tech.

Escorts

Exide Ind

Hero Moto

M&M

Mahindra CIE

Maruti Suzuki

Tata Motors

TVS Motor

Aggregate

Banks - Private

Axis Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Hold.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

IDFC Bank

IndusInd

J&K Bank

Kotak Mah. Bk

RBL Bank

South Indian

Yes Bank

Aggregate

Banks - PSU

BOB

BOI

Canara

IDBI Bk

Indian Bk

OBC

PNB

SBI

Union Bk

Aggregate

NBFCs

Bajaj Fin.

Bharat Fin.

Dewan Hsg.

GRUH Fin.

HDFC

Indiabulls Hsg

LIC Hsg Fin

Manappuram

M&M Fin.

Muthoot Fin

Reco

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Not Rated

Buy

Buy

Buy

TP

% Upside

EPS (INR)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) Downside FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY19E

20

26

20

4

-2

-6

4

9

-1

21

-6

13

13

33

7

28.0

4.6

132.3

26.2

473.1

93.3

613.8

23.5

23.2

8.2

169.1

54.3

5.4

248.6

19.8

11.7

34.5

41.8

5.5

7.1

150.4 178.2

37.7

49.7

650.7 776.2

104.9 133.9

892.0 1,135.1

30.8

37.9

35.9

44.4

9.5

11.8

198.1 201.2

69.6

81.7

9.9

11.8

300.0 370.9

30.8

65.8

16.7

26.7

31.1

20.2

21.5

45.6

50.4

19.8

47.5

36.9

30.9

27.9

22.7

26.1

46.1

28.6

24.2

46.1

28.5

33.1

28.9

34.0

23.7

28.8

18.9

19.6

30.3

NM

35.9

46.3

13.3

20.3

28.0

29.9

NM

19.2

39.7

10.9

NM

24.6

950.0

21.0

102.4

40.5

35.4

14.0

49.6

34.4

16.4

19.2

10.9

54.9

14.4

25.3

16.9

18.9

31.7

36.6

17.6

32.7

28.2

19.9

24.0

19.4

20.4

25.0

23.7

15.5

32.4

21.8

21.7

23.0

33.1

19.8

24.4

18.9

17.8

25.5

19.1

29.8

31.2

10.1

16.4

22.6

9.4

10.6

10.9

9.4

9.6

9.1

14.9

14.6

6.5

12.2

28.9

23.0

10.7

39.3

31.8

13.8

16.4

8.0

30.1

12.4

5.7

4.4

4.8

6.8

8.3

3.1

16.5

7.1

3.6

3.9

7.6

3.3

2.9

5.9

2.8

10.7

4.9

2.2

3.0

2.4

2.3

4.9

2.1

1.4

4.5

0.8

4.6

4.9

1.1

3.8

3.2

1.2

0.7

0.8

0.6

1.1

0.4

0.9

1.3

0.5

1.0

7.7

4.2

1.6

13.2

6.4

3.9

3.4

2.5

3.4

2.7

4.8

3.9

4.3

5.9

7.3

2.7

11.7

5.8

3.1

3.5

6.4

3.0

2.6

5.1

2.4

8.5

4.2

2.1

2.7

2.3

2.1

4.2

2.0

1.3

3.9

0.7

4.0

4.3

1.0

3.2

2.9

1.1

0.6

0.7

0.5

1.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

0.5

0.9

6.3

3.5

1.5

11.0

5.8

3.5

2.9

2.2

3.2

2.4

20.3

23.3

25.3

16.2

15.8

16.9

40.3

20.8

12.3

14.0

35.7

14.2

6.4

20.3

9.8

25.6

17.1

6.9

10.9

8.9

9.9

17.9

10.1

7.2

16.0

-27.0

13.8

12.3

9.4

18.9

11.4

4.1

-6.7

4.2

1.4

10.1

-8.4

3.6

-0.2

2.7

0.9

21.7

15.1

14.4

30.4

19.3

25.5

19.4

23.9

6.4

19.7

20.8

24.4

24.1

19.9

21.2

16.3

41.9

22.6

16.8

14.5

35.9

14.2

10.8

21.2

16.5

29.2

19.3

9.9

12.4

7.1

10.9

18.2

9.1

7.4

16.5

4.0

14.5

14.6

10.6

17.9

12.9

12.3

6.1

6.8

5.8

10.6

4.6

5.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

24.0

16.7

14.5

30.6

18.3

27.0

19.3

29.0

10.9

20.2

21.2

26.9

25.6

22.5

22.2

17.9

38.5

23.1

17.9

15.8

31.3

14.4

11.5

22.3

27.8

35.9

22.8

15.7

14.0

10.1

12.5

19.0

9.8

9.0

17.3

7.0

15.7

17.3

12.2

19.4

14.5

14.5

9.0

9.4

7.3

11.1

5.4

7.5

10.7

10.5

9.3

26.2

19.5

15.2

30.9

17.4

29.6

19.0

32.2

12.9

20.6

871

1,044

93

117

2,846 3,422

1,194 1,242

23,832 23,287

1,848 1,741

29,180 30,402

867

948

716

711

227

274

3,842 3,622

1,418 1,603

247

-

7,114 8,060

479

635

542

581

Neutral

508

Neutral

202

Buy

160

Buy

114

Buy

1,636

Buy

318

Neutral

59

Buy

1,517

Neutral

84

Buy

963

Under Review 551

Buy

29

Buy

1,482

525

170

210

125

1,790

365

62

1,700

89

1,050

-

31

2,110

3

-16

31

9

9

15

6

12

6

9

7

42

15.4

7.0

4.7

4.8

56.8

16.8

3.0

50.1

-31.3

26.8

11.9

2.2

73.0

23.4

8.8

4.8

5.8

67.1

16.8

3.3

59.4

4.4

32.3

17.6

2.9

90.5

41.2

11.2

7.5

7.3

79.4

19.2

4.3

72.0

8.0

40.5

23.8

3.6

114.0

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

179

146

360

61

319

155

153

287

160

217

147

380

49

360

150

184

375

174

21

1

6

-19

13

-3

20

30

9

6.0

-14.8

18.8

1.5

29.3

-31.6

6.2

0.3

7.6

19.0

13.7

33.0

6.4

33.3

17.1

10.3

19.7

24.6

24.9

22.0

48.9

8.6

38.1

21.4

14.5

25.9

34.5

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Not Rated

Buy

Buy

1,360

744

414

404

1,610

1,131

733

89

389

428

1,550

769

559

421

1,797

1,227

723

-

400

465

14

3

35

4

12

8

-1

3

9

33.6

21.0

29.6

8.1

46.8

69.0

38.2

8.2

7.1

29.7

47.0

32.4

38.6

10.3

50.7

82.2

44.6

11.1

12.9

34.5

63.6

45.3

45.5

12.5

55.9

101.6

51.2

14.0

16.4

40.0

5 June 2017

19

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

128

789

190

2,308

1,028

TP

% Upside

(INR) Downside

117

-8

900

14

134

-29

2,689

17

1,269

23

Valuation snapshot

FY19E

16.8

18.5

19.1

17.8

16.3

17.9

15.8

16.8

3.6

31.6

50.3

4.2

23.0

21.5

21.4

15.1

21.2

13.6

11.8

13.7

19.5

-11.0

12.9

17.5

15.3

12.9

7.1

14.2

12.2

13.1

15.1

7.2

18.6

14.7

19.1

12.3

22.6

22.6

15.7

13.7

30.6

37.2

60.3

26.3

32.2

23.0

23.0

81.4

28.9

18.4

38.1

39.0

Company

PFC

Repco Home

REC

Shriram City Union

STF

Aggregate

Capital Goods

ABB

Bharat Elec.

BHEL

Blue Star

CG Cons. Elec.

CG Power & Indu.

Cummins

GE T&D

Havells

Inox Wind

K E C Intl

L&T

Pennar Eng.

Siemens

Solar Ind

Suzlon Energy

Thermax

Va Tech Wab.

Voltas

Aggregate

Cement

Ambuja Cem.

ACC

Birla Corp.

Dalmia Bharat

Grasim Inds.

India Cem

J K Cements

JK Lakshmi Ce

Ramco Cem

Orient Cem

Prism Cem

Shree Cem

Ultratech

Aggregate

Consumer

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Cons.

GSK Cons.

HUL

ITC

Jyothy Lab

Marico

Nestle

Reco

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

EPS (INR)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E

25.7 27.2

30.2

5.0

4.7

0.9

0.8

17.9 17.0

29.1 36.0

43.3

27.1 21.9

4.3

3.7

17.4 18.2

31.4 35.0

40.4

6.1

5.4

1.1

1.0

19.9 19.1

84.3 130.4 164.7 27.4 17.7

3.1

2.7

11.8 16.2

55.6 77.4

98.6

18.5 13.3

2.1

1.8

11.7 14.5

18.4 15.8

3.2

2.8

17.2 17.7

19.7

6.9

2.0

12.9

4.7

4.1

26.5

5.7

9.6

12.8

11.9

63.3

5.8

17.8

20.6

0.6

30.8

28.9

15.5

25.1

7.2

4.4

19.0

5.6

2.3

29.3

8.9

12.1

-3.2

13.6

68.0

7.5

24.3

22.0

0.9

32.3

34.9

16.0

32.2

8.1

5.0

28.0

6.7

4.5

35.2

10.6

14.5

15.5

16.8

78.3

10.0

33.3

27.5

1.0

34.0

39.8

18.1

73.5

24.8

69.3

49.6

51.7

20.4

35.5

61.0

50.6

11.2

22.6

28.2

22.5

76.8

40.0

31.1

31.8

23.2

32.4

35.2

49.2

48.7

30.3

62.6

17.1

37.8

32.8

70.0

26.4

NM

335.6

46.8

44.0

36.7

55.3

48.5

48.3

39.2

42.9

48.1

34.7

55.4

38.0

32.6

51.2

56.3

57.8

24.0

32.2

33.6

43.4

36.6

32.1

39.1

40.0

NM

19.7

26.3

17.5

56.4

37.6

22.4

30.4

19.2

31.3

31.3

36.3

33.4

21.8

36.4

13.4

22.8

23.8

42.7

23.2

34.6

31.5

37.4

34.9

27.5

50.3

43.6

40.0

36.7

38.9

41.7

31.9

48.4

33.3

40.9

46.3

56.0

9.4

5.1

1.1

8.1

28.1

1.3

7.0

8.7

9.2

1.5

4.3

3.3

1.9

7.1

7.3

-1.8

4.4

3.7

5.0

3.9

2.5

3.6

2.1

4.3

1.9

1.3

4.4

4.1

4.7

3.2

5.8

8.9

5.0

3.6

14.7

15.9

21.9

10.3

14.7

11.7

7.3

35.3

8.6

6.1

17.9

21.3

8.1

4.0

1.0

7.5

20.2

1.2

6.4

7.6

8.2

1.5

3.7

3.2

1.7

6.2

6.4

-2.0

3.9

3.2

4.5

3.7

2.4

3.7

1.9

3.9

1.7

1.2

3.8

3.8

4.0

3.0

5.1

7.3

4.5

3.3

14.1

14.8

20.7

8.9

11.8

9.1

7.2

34.6

8.5

6.2

15.2

19.6

12.7

20.6

1.5

18.0

76.4

6.2

21.2

12.4

18.2

14.9

21.2

12.6

8.6

9.3

19.8

NM

14.3

16.3

18.0

11.2

5.0

7.5

7.5

7.2

11.5

3.4

14.4

6.0

19.2

-3.2

1.8

20.2

12.0

9.7

28.5

36.9

50.4

28.4

35.8

24.6

22.2

65.6

23.5

21.1

36.7

39.0

13.9

16.5

3.3

23.2

54.2

3.4

20.8

20.7

20.4

-3.3

20.3

12.5

10.0

11.0

18.1

-8.8

13.6

17.7

15.1

11.7

6.7

11.0

9.2

11.3

13.1

5.5

17.0

9.2

18.6

9.0

17.2

21.5

13.6

11.8

28.6

35.2

53.2

26.0

33.8

24.5

22.6

72.1

25.6

15.1

35.5

36.4

Sell

1,449

Buy

172

Sell

140

Neutral

639

Buy

242

Sell

84

Neutral

940

Neutral

349

Neutral

484

Under Review 144

Neutral

267

Buy

1,784

Not Rated

131

Neutral

1,369

Neutral

825

Not Rated

20

Sell

982

Buy

671

Sell

501

1,200

200

100

650

240

65

950

320

480

-

250

2,000

-

1,355

825

-

850

800

400

-17

16

-29

2

-1

-22

1

-8

-1

-7

12

-1

0

-13

19

-20

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

240

283

1,644 1,521

891

998

2,426 3,162

1,162 1,234

213

210

1,104 1,322

487

550

719

823

156

185

117

138

17,982 23,316

4,230 4,928

18

-8

12

30

6

-1

20

13

14

19

18

30

16

4.9

6.6

33.7 49.2

29.4 40.9

38.8 66.7

67.9 86.9

5.6

9.3

33.7 46.4

7.0

11.4

27.3 31.1

-1.6

4.5

0.3

3.7

384.4 480.7

96.1 121.4

7.2

63.6

58.9

87.1

114.5

12.9

59.5

20.5

37.5

6.8

5.8

621.0

159.1

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Sell

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Sell

1,163

3,575

1,026

284

1,137

1,819

5,421

1,087

319

366

322

6,645

1,210

4,050

1,180

295

1,250

1,950

4,380

1,165

355

390

335

5,715

4

13

15

4

10

7

-19

7

11

7

4

-14

21.0 23.1

73.7 82.1

21.2 25.7

7.2

7.7

26.5 29.2

37.8 43.6

156.1 169.7

19.6 22.4

8.4

9.6

11.2

8.9

6.3

6.9

118.0 118.6

27.4

101.3

31.1

9.1

34.7

50.0

185.5

25.9

11.5

11.0

8.4

139.5

5 June 2017

20

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

TP

% Upside

(INR) (INR) Downside

14,276 18,000

26

235

245

4

793

762

-4

7,698 8,760

14

809

830

3

2,343 2,150

-8

Valuation snapshot

FY19E

42.8

13.4

24.0

74.0

14.6

19.7

30.6

24.1

21.0

30.0

22.5

16.1

27.1

12.8

19.2

15.1

5.3

21.3

17.6

54.4

13.2

19.7

19.3

17.9

20.7

24.6

17.6

17.8

46.8

11.7

11.7

25.4

18.6

15.0

44.1

27.6

0.7

15.6

6.6

17.3

20.5

1.5

31.9

23.8

20.6

15.1

25.4

-0.8

18.8

7.3

Company

Page Inds

Parag Milk

Pidilite Ind.

P&G Hygiene

United Brew

United Spirits

Aggregate

Healthcare

Alembic Phar

Alkem Lab

Ajanta Pharma

Aurobindo

Biocon

Cadila

Cipla

Divis Lab

Dr Reddy’s

Fortis Health

Glenmark

Granules

GSK Pharma

IPCA Labs

Lupin

Sanofi India

Sun Pharma

Syngene Intl

Torrent Pharma

Aggregate

Logistics

Allcargo Logistics

Blue Dart

Concor

Gateway

Distriparks

Gati

Transport Corp.

Aggregate

Media

Dish TV

D B Corp

Den Net.

Hind. Media

HT Media

Jagran Prak.

PVR

Siti Net.

Sun TV

Zee Ent.

Aggregate

Metals

Hindalco

Hind. Zinc

JSPL

JSW Steel

Nalco

Reco

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

EPS (INR)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E

238.7 313.9 400.0 59.8 45.5 23.9 18.9 40.0 41.6

3.6

7.4

12.3

65.2 31.6

3.0

2.7

5.9

9.1

16.7 18.4

21.2

47.4 43.0 12.3 10.0 28.2 25.6

144.9 155.8 181.6 53.1 49.4 43.9 35.0 45.3 78.9

8.7

9.7

14.7

93.0 83.4

9.3

8.5

10.4 10.7

26.7 37.4

51.8

87.7 62.7 17.6 12.1 21.3 19.3

46.2 41.0 12.8 11.9 27.7 29.1

21.6 26.0

75.7 80.0

58.4 66.4

39.3 44.1

30.6 33.1

14.2 18.1

15.9 20.0

39.7 35.8

72.6 107.1

10.3

2.1

39.3 45.0

7.3

8.1

34.4 51.9

16.1 22.4

59.2 60.2

129.1 131.0

26.1 25.4

13.0 16.1

55.2 59.8

32.1

94.9

79.9

50.2

44.9

23.2

25.0

39.8

144.5

6.1

53.5

11.4

60.1

29.9

73.7

173.4

30.8

18.0

73.2

24.9

26.1

27.5

15.1

31.8

34.8

33.3

15.6

35.2

18.7

16.6

19.4

71.6

31.3

19.7

31.6

19.7

37.1

22.0

23.2

17.7

43.3

30.6

36.0

15.0

19.1

29.0

84.9

18.5

NM

10.4

11.1

16.6

71.0

NM

33.6

22.6

40.9

12.2

12.1

NM

13.2

17.8

20.6

24.7

24.2

13.4

29.4

27.3

26.5

17.3

23.8

91.4

14.4

17.3

47.3

22.5

19.4

31.1

20.3

29.9

20.3

21.5

14.3

34.2

28.2

21.1

7.9

15.4

24.0

40.8

15.6

NM

10.1

10.4

14.7

40.4

NM

28.3

31.9

29.1

8.7

11.0

NM

9.7

18.3

5.4

5.6

9.1

3.8

4.3

7.9

3.4

3.5

3.5

2.0

4.1

3.2

15.4

2.6

4.0

5.4

3.6

7.5

5.1

4.2

2.6

19.2

3.2

2.1

2.1

3.0

3.6

18.2

4.3

1.6

1.8

0.7

2.4

7.1

3.8

8.4

8.3

5.8

1.5

3.3

0.4

2.1

1.2

4.5

4.8

6.9

3.0

3.9

6.5

3.1

3.2

2.8

1.7

3.2

2.3

18.8

2.4

3.4

5.1

3.2

6.1

4.4

3.6

2.3

14.6

3.1

2.0

1.8

2.5

3.3

12.6

3.9

1.7

1.6

0.7

2.4

6.1

4.2

7.7

7.0

5.3

1.2

2.8

0.4

1.8

1.2

23.1

23.4

37.7

28.3

13.6

24.8

10.2

23.5

9.6

11.3

24.7

20.0

21.5

8.6

22.0

17.1

19.2

22.2

25.3

17.9

12.6

50.5

10.8

5.9

12.4

16.7

12.2

24.1

25.5

-12.0

19.3

7.1

17.6

10.4

-23.5

25.0

23.7

14.3

14.0

24.4

-7.9

17.3

7.2

23.6

20.8

32.3

24.8

13.3

26.1

11.5

19.2

13.3

2.0

22.4

16.4

39.7

11.0

18.9

16.3

16.8

22.5

23.5

16.6

17.2

48.6

11.1

9.9

19.4

17.8

13.7

36.5

26.2

-5.3

16.6

6.9

16.3

16.1

-7.8

27.3

23.8

18.1

15.6

27.2

-5.0

19.7

6.7

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Not Rated

Buy

537

1,977

1,606

593

972

495

529

618

2,553

193

650

141

2,460

503

1,165

4,078

515

482

1,213

640

1,900

2,028

750

900

510

500

600

2,625

240

800

200

2,700

480

1,475

4,850

650

-

1,450

19

-4

26

26

-7

3

-5

-3

3

24

23

42

10

-5

27

19

26

20

Buy

Not Rated

Neutral

Buy

Not Rated

Not Rated

174

4,438

1,162

245

126

324

228

-

1,162

310

-

-

31

0

27

9.8

12.2

102.5 129.9

38.0 41.2

6.8

8.4

16.9

11.6

15.9

21.0

14.3

163.2

45.8

14.3

23.9

25.9

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

84

377

86

274

82

179

1,458

28

835

523

106

460

90

360

85

225

1,666

36

860

600

26

22

5

31

4

26

14

30

3

15

1.0

20.4

-8.6

26.4

7.4

10.8

20.5

-1.8

24.9

23.1

2.1

24.1

-2.7

27.1

7.9

12.2

36.1

-0.5

29.5

16.4

3.8

28.7

0.3

29.9

8.3

14.0

54.7

0.1

38.4

19.5

Buy

Sell

Buy

Buy

Neutral

197

238

122

195

66

250

235

184

241

65

27

-1

51

24

-1

16.2

19.7

-20.9

14.8

3.7

22.6

21.5

-16.0

20.1

3.6

25.9

23.7

-2.5

22.6

4.0

5 June 2017

21

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

Reco

(INR)

Under Review 113

Sell

57

Neutral

229

Sell

492

Valuation snapshot

FY19E

15.7

0.5

15.3

12.1

11.8

23.3

12.9

27.5

14.6

18.7

19.9

19.5

18.4

9.6

13.0

25.2

11.2

13.4

12.6

20.9

18.5

17.9

26.0

23.5

21.2

15.2

28.3

20.5

15.7

14.7

20.3

32.3

32.3

17.0

15.7

17.8

22.0

6.4

19.1

-27.4

39.1

3.9

52.1

15.0

2.8

12.3

17.8

13.6

17.4

Company

NMDC

SAIL

Vedanta

Tata Steel

Aggregate

Oil & Gas

BPCL

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat St. Pet.

HPCL

IOC

IGL

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

PLNG

Reliance Ind.

Aggregate

Retail

Jubilant Food

Titan Co.

Aggregate

Technology

Cyient

HCL Tech.

Hexaware

Infosys

KPIT Tech

L&T Infotech

Mindtree

Mphasis

NIIT Tech

Persistent Sys

Tata Elxsi

TCS

Tech Mah

Wipro

Zensar Tech

Aggregate

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Infratel

Idea Cellular

Tata Comm

Aggregate

Utiltites

Coal India

CESC

JSW Energy

NTPC

Power Grid

Tata Power

Aggregate

Others

TP

% Upside

EPS (INR)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) Downside FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E

-

10.0 12.0

12.7

11.4

9.4

1.6

1.5

12.4 14.9

30

-48

-6.2 -12.6

0.4

NM

NM

0.6

0.7

-6.7 -15.2

225

-2

15.1 24.5

27.4

15.1

9.3

1.4

1.3

9.7

14.8

451

-8

37.0 39.5

45.7

13.3 12.5

1.5

1.4

15.4 11.4

16.8 13.6

1.4

1.3

8.0

9.4

779

358

699

171

632

457

1,067

124

363

229

547

1,264

7

-11

-7

-4

18

10

-2

-7

21

32

23

-5

72.5 64.5

22.6 28.7

20.4 38.5

8.8

11.2

61.0 45.6

41.0 41.9

43.1 46.7

11.7 12.8

19.3 34.7

16.4 20.6

22.7 25.9

106.6 121.7

70.3

32.7

46.6

13.4

45.8

43.3

51.8

13.3

37.4

23.9

35.1

127.8

10.0

17.8

36.7

20.3

8.8

10.1

25.2

11.4

15.6

10.6

19.6

12.4

11.9

92.7

52.3

55.1

16.5

14.3

17.7

15.4

9.8

14.1

21.7

15.9

12.6

16.1

24.1

19.2

12.9

16.3

15.9

16.9

33.6

25.2

NM

28.3

35.5

18.0

17.7

16.5

12.5

14.5

15.7

14.9

11.2

14.0

19.5

16.0

11.8

9.9

23.3

10.4

8.7

8.4

17.2

10.9

10.9

76.3

46.0

48.2

13.2

13.9

15.8

15.0

8.7

13.1

17.8

14.8

12.7

13.8

20.0

18.3

12.4

15.9

12.9

16.5

59.4

21.4

NM

40.6

165.9

14.7

12.5

30.1

12.1

11.7

12.0

13.0

3.1

1.8

6.3

2.3

2.7

2.0

5.2

2.3

0.8

1.0

4.1

1.4

1.6

7.6

9.9

9.5

2.7

3.6

4.3

3.2

1.5

4.9

3.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

7.6

6.0

2.1

2.6

2.4

3.9

2.2

4.6

1.2

13.2

2.4

6.8

2.1

1.0

1.4

2.2

1.9

2.3

2.6

1.7

5.0

2.1

2.3

2.0

4.4

2.0

0.8

1.0

3.5

1.2

1.5

7.1

8.8

8.5

2.3

3.5

3.8

2.9

1.3

3.8

3.2

2.4

1.8

2.4

6.1

6.2

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.7

2.1

4.0

1.4

9.9

2.4

6.8

1.8

1.0

1.3

1.9

1.7

2.1

32.4

10.2

17.8

11.9

32.4

22.3

21.0

24.8

5.7

10.4

23.6

11.9

13.2

8.2

20.6

17.2

16.2

27.5

26.5

23.3

14.3

40.4

16.8

13.2

16.1

17.0

37.1

33.5

18.4

16.9

16.3

23.2

6.7

16.2

-1.6

126.2

6.9

37.8

11.4

6.7

11.5

16.2

11.2

15.3

25.1

12.2

28.5

13.7

21.2

20.2

20.6

20.5

9.3

11.7

22.1

11.8

13.4

9.3

20.2

17.6

17.8

25.4

25.3

21.4

15.6

32.8

18.9

14.0

14.8

18.1

33.7

32.4

16.7

15.5

17.7

22.7

3.7

19.4

-20.8

27.9

1.5

46.2

15.5

3.3

10.9

17.5

14.6

16.3

Neutral

Neutral

Sell

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

725

402

751

179

537

415

1,088

133

301

174

446

1,325

Sell

Neutral

928

472

680

505

-27

7

10.0

9.0

12.2

10.3

17.9

12.1

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

504

857

242

969

117

782

541

619

539

607

1,358

2,562

400

552

873

620

960

235

1,200

150

850

475

600

470

700

1,607

2,400

500

500

1,020

23

12

-3

24

29

9

-12

-3

-13

15

18

-6

25

-9

17

30.6 38.3

59.8 61.9

13.7 15.4

62.9 64.7

11.9 13.4

55.5 59.7

24.9 30.5

38.9 41.7

42.8 42.5

37.7 43.9

56.3 68.0

133.4 139.7

30.9 32.3

33.8 34.6

54.9 67.6

44.2

67.6

16.7

71.1

15.2

65.0

36.5

45.0

46.1

51.4

80.4

149.6

36.9

38.2

78.4

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

373

374

80

735

430

435

110

811

15

16

38

10

11.1

14.9

-1.1

26.0

6.3

17.5

-12.9

18.1

11.5

19.9

-13.6

36.0

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Sell

269

917

64

162

206

81

316

1,040

88

198

242

67

18

13

38

22

17

-17

14.9

51.9

3.9

13.0

14.2

5.2

18.3

73.4

2.1

13.4

17.6

6.7

20.7

80.6

1.8

16.2

20.5

7.0

5 June 2017

22