Parag Milk Foods
BSE SENSEX
31,159
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,625
PARAG IN
84.1
20.9 / 0.3
357 / 203
-6/-29/-15
92
52.5
30 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR238
TP: INR245(+3%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
16.5
17.1
19.7
Net Sales
1.5
0.8
1.5
EBITDA
0.5
0.1
0.6
PAT
6.7
0.9
6.7
EPS (INR)
-66.7 -86.5 631.5
Gr. (%)
51.4
81.2
87.9
BV/Sh (INR)
19.5
1.5
7.9
RoE (%)
12.4
2.6
7.4
RoCE (%)
31.7 234.5
32.1
P/E (x)
4.1
2.6
2.4
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sales in-line; EBITDA margin expands 250bp YoY led by subsidiary turnaround
PARAG reported net sales growth of 3.4% YoY
(est. of +2.5%) to INR4.3b in
4QFY17. Healthy EBITDA margin versus low expectations after the disastrous
3QFY17 meant that EBITDA grew by 29.6% YoY (est. of -42%) to INR519m, and
adj. PAT by 98% YoY to INR319m (est. of INR84m).
Gross margin expanded 240bp YoY to 32.4%.
Higher employee costs (+80bp
YoY to 5.2%) were offset by lower other expenses (-90bp to 15.1%).
Higher other income (due to reversal of INR71m impairment losses taken
earlier) and a lower tax rate aided strong PAT growth.
FY17 performance:
Sales, EBITDA and adj. PAT grew by 5.2%, -27% and -36%
YoY, respectively. EBITDA margin contracted 280bp YoY to 6.2%.
Key concall highlights:
(1) Company took 8% price increase in January.
Competitors followed 30-45 days later, leading to weak volumes for PARAG. (2)
Further price hike is required to protect margins. The company will now take a
decision on price increase in June after taking into account revised GST rates.
(3) Reason for high depreciation: a) Half of IPO spends capitalized and b)
INR0.53b catch-up cost due to Ind-AS (correction of historical accounting).
Valuation and view:
Opportunity size in Dairy is huge and in turn offers strong
growth visibility for branded players. PARAG, with its strength in procurement,
distribution, innovation and management bandwidth, is best placed among
peers. While rest of the listed dairy players are either regional or have
dominant B2B positioning, PARAG offers a pan-national branded dairy play
with a B2C focus. The crucial factor to monitor remains RoE improvement over
the medium term. Until RoE improves, target multiples would not be more
than 20x even if earnings momentum is strong. We maintain
Neutral
with a
target price of INR245 (20x FY19 EPS).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428