25 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Voltas
Sell
BSE SENSEX
30,750
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017
2018E
60.3
67.4
Net Sales
5.8
5.9
EBITDA
Adj PAT
5.1
5.3
EPS(INR)
15.5
16.0
30.1
3.6
EPS Gr. (%)
111.8
BV/Sh. (INR) 100.0
RoE (%)
18.0
15.1
RoCE (%)
16.5
15.0
30.9
29.7
P/E (x)
4.8
4.3
P/BV (x)
S&P CNX
9,510
VOLT IN
331
89.3 / 1.4
484 / 287
11/41/22
570
69.7
CMP: INR476
TP: INR400(-16%)
Results above expectations; JV with Arcelik – a medium-term positive
Results above expectations:
4QFY17 revenues increased 10% YoY to
INR20.4b (est. of INR19.3b). EBIDTA increased 23% YoY to INR2.2b (est. of
INR1.9b), with the margin expanding 120bp to 10.9% (est. of 10.0%). Adj.
net profit rose 46% YoY to INR2.0b (est. of INR1.4b).
UCP sales grew 28% YoY to INR10.9b,
led by early onset of summer. VOLT
remained the market leader, with a share of 21.4%. EBIT margin was stable
at 16.4%. EMP revenue declined 9% YoY to IN8.3b, led by slower-than-
expected progress in some projects. EBIT margin for the segment expanded
250bp YoY to 5.7%, led by closure of low-margin legacy orders and
execution of better-margin new orders. Management has guided for 6%
EBIT margin for FY18.
‘Voltas Beko’ JV to manufacture and sell consumer durables products:
VOLT has entered into a joint venture with Arcelik to manufacture and sell
white good products (refrigerator, washing machine, microwave oven, etc.)
under the brand name of ‘Voltas Beko’. The JV intends to invest USD100m
to establish a manufacturing and distribution network in India. The JV
expects to roll out the first set of products in 2HFY18.
Maintain Sell; revise TP to INR400:
We raise estimates for FY18/19 by 7%
each to factor in the beat in 4QFY17, as we build in higher margins in the
UCP segment. Our cautious view is driven by: a) threat to margins from
increasing competition in AC segment, b) industry convergence to
inverters, where Voltas has a weak share and c) inventory destocking prior
to GST implementation and BEE rating changes in January 2018.
(INR Million)
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
4QE
10,401 12,659 18,554 18,500 9,672 11,805 20,351 57,198 60,328 19,305
5.6
33.1
24.5
18.7
-7.0
-6.7
9.7
10.4
5.5
2.2
645
563 1,808 1,995
687
890 2,219 4,330 5,791 1,922
-17.0
-1.9
26.5
52.0
6.4
58.0
22.7
5.6
33.8
3.7
6.2
4.4
9.7
10.8
7.1
7.5
10.9
7.6
9.6
10.0
64
65
75
66
63
60
56
264
245
79
33
37
54
48
33
22
58
158
160
51
477
249
393
357
658
597
386 1,367 1,998
339
0
-22
-268
-9
0
0
-2
106
11
-
1,025
732 2,339 2,248 1,249 1,405 2,493 5,381 7,395 2,130
378
195
671
651
505
437
496 1,696 2,089
795
36.9
26.7
28.7
28.9
40.4
31.1
19.9
31.5
28.2
37.3
647
573 1,642 1,576
697
815 2,005 3,685 5,114 1,416
28.9
-46.6
37.6
53.7
7.8
42.2
22.1
-5.7
38.8
-19.7
647
551 1,375 1,567
697
815 2,003 3,580 5,103 1,416
29.5
-12.3
17.7
52.8
7.8
47.9
45.7
5.9
42.6
-4.6
35,990 35,140 39,140 44,170 42,520 41,960 43,210 39,140
-
2,010 4,960 9,590 9,500 3,820 4,500 4,660 22,500
9,180
1.3
1.3
0.8
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.5 1.4
1.6
Var.
Vs Est
5%
15%
2019E
75.5
6.7
6.0
18.1
13.2
125.2
15.3
15.1
26.3
3.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
As of % Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Extra-ordinary Items
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adj PAT
Change (%)
Order Book
Order Intake
BTB - TTM basis (x)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
15,585
-11.3
1,313
-0.4
8.4
59
34
248
0
1,468
452
30.8
1,025
-7.0
1,025
-7.9
40,390
5,940
1.8
17%
42%
41%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543