9 December 2016
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
Marico
BSE SENSEX
26,747
S&P CNX
8,262
CMP: INR254
TP: INR314(+24%)
Upgrade to Buy
Price correction offers attractive entry point
High-quality franchise, reasonable valuations
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
MRCO IN
1290.2
307 / 208
0/0/13
329.1
4.8
408
40.3
Marico offers an attractive investment opportunity, given its high-quality
business and strong growth prospects with access to 4.6m outlets in
urban/rural areas.
With its strong brands, the company has consistently grown its earnings at an
outstanding pace despite considerable input cost volatility.
The company is a pioneer in innovation and use of technology in distribution
– a key competitive advantage.
Marico follows best-in-class disclosure and corporate governance standards,
providing comfort to investors.
We believe long-term investors can consider gaining exposure to the stock
after price correction of 17% over past four months. Subsequently, the stock
trades at 29x December 2018E EPS.
Key strengths:
Marico is one of India’s most admired companies in the
consumer mid-cap space. It has evolved up the value chain from a
commoditized business to a branded play with a diversified portfolio. Apt
positioning of its products and investments behind its brands mean that 95% of
Marico’s portfolio consists of brands that are either no.1 or 2 in their
respective segment. Focus on employee empowerment and innovation is also
noteworthy.
Consistency in growth:
Earnings growth over past 10 years has been
consistently high, despite significant volatility in commodity costs, due to its
diversified branded portfolio. Over the last 3/5/10 years, EBITDA CAGR has
been impressive at 19%-22% and PAT CAGR at 23%-26%. Operating cash flow
CAGR too has been consistently above 18% over the last 3/5/10 years. Besides
this, RoCEs have historically remained at healthy levels. We note that growth
has been superior to its domestic and MNC FMCG peers.
Technology:
Marico has been one the pioneers in the use of technology in
distribution and sales. Distributor-level inventory is managed via just-in-time
approach in most urban centers, and technology usage is spreading fast in rural
areas too. This enables the company to not only expand its footprint rapidly,
but also limit working capital increase despite significant expansion in the
business.
Rural growth:
Marico reaches 4.6m outlets across the country, which is among
the highest for mid-cap consumer companies. Of the 643,000 villages in India,
Marico has close to 100% reach in nearly all 100,000 villages with population of
over 5,000. Its direct reach is close to 850,000 outlets, a large part of which is
rural. According to management, Marico’s rural reach is among the best in
south/west India and extremely good in the east. Around 32-33% of Marico’s
sales come from rural areas, which could increase further once rural recovery
sets in. Marico’s technology investments over past many years should create
huge efficiencies in its rural distribution model (like in urban areas). Auto order
management right up to the lowest level and personal digital assistants (PDAs)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
60.1
60.1
71.8
EBITDA
10.4
11.2
13.7
Adj. PAT
7.2
7.9
9.8
Adj. EPS (INR)
5.6
6.1
7.6
EPS Gr. (%)
26.1
9.0
24.3
BV/Sh.(INR)
16.3
20.3
24.0
RoE (%)
36.9
33.5
34.3
RoCE (%)
31.4
29.3
30.3
P/E (x)
45.2
41.5
33.4
P/BV (x)
15.6
12.5
10.6
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-15
Promoter
59.7
59.7
59.7
DII
3.4
3.3
9.3
FII
29.3
29.3
23.7
Others
7.6
7.7
7.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Marico
Sensex - Rebased
315
270
225
180
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547