2
Coromandel International
BSE SENSEX
26,305
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,108
CRIN IN
291.3
69.3/ 1.0
293 / 146
-5/3/24
81
38.0
15 November 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Fertilizers
CMP: INR238
TP: INR284 (+19%)
Buy
Strong Performance; Outlook positive due to normal monsoon
Strong bottom-line performance:
Coromandel’s overall revenue was flattish at
INR35.75b (est. of INR35.29) in 2QFY17. EBITDA margins increased 230bp in
2QFY17 to 10.8% (est 7.5%). Consequently, EBITDA increased 25% to
INR3,846m (est. INR2,647m) mainly because of lower other expenses.
Nutrients to Crop Protection revenue mix stood at 88:12 for 2QFY17 while EBIT
mix was 76:24. Consequently Reported PAT grew 26% from INR1,695m in
2QFY16 to INR2,134m (est INR1,321m) in 2QFY17.
Gains market share due to higher than industry growth:
CRIN registered 8%
YoY volume growth (against industry de-growth of 3% YoY) on the back of low
channel inventory in primary markets of AP and Telangana. CRIN has increased
its market share in its primary markets to 61% during 2QFY17 while on the pan-
India level, market share increased to 17% as there was improved performance
in non-primary markets of Maharashtra and West Bengal. Company’s
production of complexes during 2QFY17 increased 17% YoY to 770,000 MT
with a high capacity utilization of 90%.
Strong margins in crop protection segment:
Management highlighted that
strong performance in crop protection segment was led by higher traction in
key products like Mancozeb in international markets despite exports of certain
insecticides being absent to certain regions like Latin America. Robust margin
expansion of 850bp YoY was mainly driven by lower input cost, lower gas prices
and favourable exchange rate on export realization. We believe increasing
contribution in this segment will aid in improving EBITDA margins.
Valuation and view:
We believe encouraging rabi season due to normal
monsoon, falling raw material prices and regular disbursement of subsidy will
remain potential triggers going ahead. Factoring in the quarterly performance
and price decline, we broadly keep our estimates unchanged for FY17 and
FY18, respectively. We expect 7% revenue CAGR and 150bp margin expansion
over FY16-18, translating to 31% PAT CAGR. We believe CRIN has significant
operating and financial levers ahead. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR284, 14x (
10% premium to 10 year median P/E led by improvement in return ratios)
FY18E EPS.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
115.2 117.8 131.3
EBITDA
7.7
9.0
10.8
NP
3.4
4.3
5.9
EPS (INR)
11.8
14.7
20.3
EPS Gr. (%)
-14.9
24.6
37.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
83.2
90.8 102.6
RoE (%)
14.9
16.9
21.0
RoCE (%)
10.8
12.7
15.9
P/E (x)
20.1
16.2
11.7
P/BV (x)
2.9
2.6
2.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422
Chitvan Oza
(Chitvan.Oza@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3010 2415
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.