2 November 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Tata Elxsi
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,527
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,514
TELX IN
31.1
39.6/ 0.6
2,396/1,224
-8/-40/-34
1,069
55.4
CMP: INR1,273
TP: INR1,619 (+27%)
Results below estimates; incremental margin expansion looks tough
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
10.8
12.4
14.7
EBITDA
2.5
3.0
3.6
PAT
1.5
1.9
2.3
EPS (INR)
49.7
60.2
73.6
EPS Gr. (%)
50.5
21.1
22.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
123.9 157.7 195.3
RoE (%)
46.3
42.8
41.7
RoCE (%)
46.3
42.8
41.7
P/E (x)
25.6
21.1
17.3
P/BV (x)
10.3
8.1
6.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Pound depreciation impacts growth:
Tata Elxsi’s (TELX) overall revenue grew
15% to INR3,033m (est. of INR3,230m) in 2QFY17 from INR2,637m in the year-
ago period. Although 2Q benefited from healthy volume growth, adverse
impact of INR100m due to pound (~30% exposure) depreciation led to lower
value growth. EBITDA margin expanded 133bp to 24.6% (est. of 23.7%) from
23.2% in 2QFY16, led by gross margin improvement. EBITDA rose 22% to
INR745m (est. of INR765m) from INR613m in 2QFY16. Additionally, other
income at negative INR30m was impacted by restatement of pound-
denominated assets. Thus, PAT grew 13% from INR381m in 2QFY16 to
INR431m (est. of INR490m) in 2QFY17.
Little room for further margin expansion:
With the pound depreciating post
the Brexit vote, newer orders are expected to face pressure on realization,
thereby impacting margins. Also, management highlighted that margins are at
peak levels, leaving little scope for further expansion. TELX added close to ~700
new employees, taking the total count to 5,300 (as of Sep-2017). We also note
that the company plans to add another 400-500 employees by year-end.
Utilization rate was 75% in 2QFY17 (inclusive of lateral new employees). TELX
intends to sustain current margin levels with growth mainly driven by revenue.
Growth momentum in key segments to continue:
In the transportation
segment, TELX has been focusing on OEMs over past few years, which has
reaped rich dividends. Transportation will continue to be the fastest growing
segment for TELX, in our view. In the broadcast segment (second fastest
growing), the US and Europe are seeing good traction, while it has added one
client in South Africa. In the medical equipment segment, TELX added one
client in 2QFY17. It is a small order but a good brand, and thus the company is
expecting a larger and sustained growth from this client. The company is in
this business for two years and now engaged with 10-12 companies.
Valuation and view:
Given the miss on our estimates and the expected impact
from Brexit vote, we cut our revenue estimates by 6%/12% and PAT estimates
by 8%/11% for FY17/FY18. We expect 17% revenue CAGR and 22% PAT CAGR
over FY16-18, led by EPD. Given its expertise in the areas of technology,
engineering and design, as well as its standing as a strong play on IoT, we
recommend
Buy
with a price target of INR1,619—22x FY18E EPS.
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825000
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422
/Chitvan Oza
(Chitvan.Oza@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3010 2415
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.