26 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Others
BSE SENSEX
27,837
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,615
MCX IN
51.0
66.1/1.0
1,420/726
27/39/41
341
100
MCX
CMP: INR1,297
TP: INR1,450 (+12%)
Buy
All-round beat; market share up to 89.5%
6% revenue beat, higher profit beat on lower costs
MCX’s 2QFY17 revenue grew 2.3% QoQ and 5.7% YoY to INR596m, above our
estimate of INR562m. This was in line with volume growth of 2.3% QoQ and
10.3% YoY. The revenue beat was led by realization beat (INR1.77/100k).
EBITDA margin expanded 280bp QoQ to 32.7%, well above our estimate of
26.6%. EBITDA was INR195m, 30% beat to our estimate of INR149m. Total
costs at INR401m were marginally below our estimate of INR412m, driving
margin beat from operating leverage.
PAT was INR376.5m, +21% YoY, above our estimate of INR311.5m, led by
operating profit beat and higher other income (INR359m v/s estimate of
INR315m – we factor “other operating income” line item in our other income).
Silver-led volume uptick:
For the second consecutive quarter, Silver drove
volumes, +20% QoQ (18% concentration; 26.6% growth in 1Q). Gold declined 14%
QoQ (21% concentration), and Crude was flat QoQ (27% concentration).
Cost base may go up in 4Q; options cannibalization to be limited:
Launch of
options will accompany investment in education and training programs along with
marketing, which will drive higher costs in 4QFY17. Number of commodities on
which options can be traded will only go up gradually, and so cannibalization from
low yielding options will be limited, as markets will continue to grow meanwhile.
Expect profits to rise next quarter:
We expect revenues and margins to bump up
further in 3Q, as price hikes of 24-25% become effective. Options launch in
4QFY17 will be a key trigger for volumes. Also, SEBI favors chronology of new
participants, followed by new exchanges, which should keep competition at bay
for the time being. With reforms underway, our base case assumes return to pre-
CTT daily turnover (ADT) of INR500b by FY18-end. This compares with current ADT
of INR250b. Our revised price target of INR1,450 discounts FY18E EPS by 30x.
Buy.
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
2016 2017E 2018E
2.1
0.6
0.4
23.4
-5.0
3.5
8.8
55.5
95.7
2.6
1.0
1.6
30.4
30.2
12.2
12.0
42.6
55.3
4.0
2.1
2.5
47.5
56.2
284.5
17.4
17.2
27.3
25.2
236.1 260.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and
S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585