15 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Infosys
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,837
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,541
INFO IN
2,296.9
2,462.9 / 36.7
1278 / 969
-14/-20/10
4183
87.3
CMP: INR1,072
TP: INR1,320 (+23%)
Momentum stopped in its tracks; 2Q crucial
Significant revenue miss derails momentum…:
Infosys’ (INFO) 1QFY17 constant
currency (CC) revenue growth of 1.7% QoQ was significantly below our estimate of
+3.7% QoQ, impacted by a slowdown in discretionary spending in Consulting/Package
Implementation (CSI) and slower/delayed ramp-ups in a few large deals won earlier.
We note that until 3QFY16, INFO had bucked the trend of industry-wide slowdown in
CSI, which was a key driver of its growth delta. EBIT margin of 24.1% (-140bp QoQ) was
in line with our estimate. PAT of INR34.4b (-4.5% QoQ) too was below our estimate of
INR36b due to revenue miss and lower other income.
…and revised guidance necessitates immediate rebound:
Following a soft start to the
year, INFO cut its FY17 revenue growth guidance to 10.5-12% in CC, from 11.5-13.5%
earlier. This implies an ask rate of 3.1%-4.1% for the remainder of the year. Seasonally
weak 2H puts the onus of rebound on 2Q performance, even considering that
contribution from new services will not follow the seasonal pattern.
Macro challenges adding on to industry transitioning?
TCS cited potential slowdown
in ramp-ups and decision deferrals as possible headwinds for BFSI in the foreseeable
future, following the Brexit vote. INFO witnessed delays in a few large deals, which
impacted its 1Q performance. While the impact of the Brexit event will become clearer
gradually, companies have already felt the effects of the uncertainty in this quarter.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
624.4 708.7 821.8
EBITDA
170.8 192.4 224.1
PAT
134.9 143.5 167.2
EPS (INR)
59.0
62.8
73.2
Gr. (%)
9.4
6.4
16.5
BV/Sh (INR)
270.3 302.7 339.6
RoE (%)
24.7
23.2
24.1
RoCE (%)
23.2
21.9
22.8
P/E (x)
18.2
17.1
14.7
P/BV (x)
4.0
3.5
3.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Uncertainty limits near-term triggers:
We have cut our USD revenue estimates
for FY17/18 by 2.4%/3.2% and earnings estimates by 5.5%/4.3%. Under its new
management, INFO has steadily addressed concerns around revenue growth,
operating margins and new age services over the past 18 months. A soft start
to FY17 pushes the recovery back by a few steps, and we believe a good 2Q will
be crucial for industry-average growth in FY17. Momentum in top-25 accounts
and deal wins lend confidence toward that end. We believe INFO is investing in
all the right areas to regain and sustain its growth leadership, compounded by
industry-leading margins. Our price target of INR1,320 discounts FY18 earnings
by 18x. We maintain our
Buy
rating.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.