10 February 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
BSE SENSEX
23,759
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
Avg Val,INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,216
CIPLA IN
803.0
429/6.5
752/535
-9/-12/0
1233
63.2
Cipla
CMP: INR534
TP: INR600 (12%)
Neutral
Weak results; Margin recovery is key
Cipla’s 3Q revenues came in at INR31b (up 12% YoY) and were ~9% below our
estimates primarily due to flat domestic sales, partially offset by strong performance in
South Africa and other EMs. EBITDA at INR 4.5b (18%YoY decline) was ~35% below
estimates due to poor business mix, one offs and high R&D cost. PAT at INR 3.4b (5%
growth) was below our estimates due to weak sales and margins, partially offset by
lower tax rate (3% of PBT).
Sales growth to moderate in 2HFY16:
Domestic formulations sales were flat in 3Q
due to change in distribution policy. Excluding impact of distribution policy
changes, domestic business grew at ~11% YoY. Management expects this to
normalize in coming quarters. Export formulations grew 33% YoY to INR16.9b,
driven by strong growth in South Africa and other emerging markets. YTD SA
market grew 43% YoY in constant currency terms driven by ramp-up in private and
tender business. We expect revenue growth to pick-up in 4Q as domestic business
comes back on track and Pulmicort revenue gets reflected from 4Q onwards.
Margin drop attributed to one offs and high R&D:
EBITDA margin at 14.6%
(decline of >500bp YoY)– significantly below our estimates due to change in
business mix, higher distribution cost (250bp) in India, higher R&D cost in 3Q (up
200bp YoY) and ZAR depreciation (70bp). Going ahead, margin improvement due
to ramp-up of respiratory business and strong US business growth will get partially
offset by negative operating leverage in recently opened front-ends and higher
R&D cost due to increased product filings.
Earnings call takeaways:
a) Invagen acquisition to get completed by 4Q FY16; b)
Pulmicort sales to get reflected from 4Q onwards; c) Base business EBITDA margin
expected to be ~18 in near term; d) Tax rate for FY16E expected to be ~22-23%.
Valuation and view:
We maintain
Neutral
rating on the stock with TP of INR600 @
18x FY18E PER (vs INR710 @ 20x). We have cut our FY17/ 18E EPS by 3-4% as e
build in slower margin improvement.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2016E 2017E 2018E
139.0 166.6 198.9
30.2
18.5
63.9
14.9
23.2
3.5
36.0
19.9
24.8
7.5
14.1
21.6
3.0
12.6
45.2
26.7
33.3
34.5
16.1
16.0
2.6
9.7
Adj. EPS (INR) 23.0
BV/Sh. (INR) 154.1 175.9 206.3
EV/EBITDA(x) 15.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(amey.chalke@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 39825423