Coromandel International
BSE SENSEX
24,486
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,436
CRIN IN
291.3
47.9 / 0.7
302/151
-8/-17/-28
61
37.9
25 January 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Fertilizers
CMP: INR164
TP: INR260 (+58%)
Buy
Results below estimates; monsoon-led rebound expected in FY17
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
113.6 130.6 145.3
Net Sales
8.1
10.5
12.4
EBITDA
3.8
5.8
7.5
PAT
12.9
20.0
25.7
EPS (INR)
-7.0
54.9
28.4
Gr. (%)
81.9
93.5 110.7
BV/Sh (INR)
16.4
22.8
25.1
RoE (%)
17.9
25.2
30.8
RoCE (%)
12.8
8.3
6.4
P/E (x)
2.0
1.8
1.5
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
-10%
8%
Results below estimates, impacted by erratic rainfall:
Coromandel’s overall
revenue de-grew 7% YoY to INR27.5b (est. of INR32 b) in 3QFY16 v/s INR29.6b
in 3QFY15 on account of erratic rainfall. Rabi crop sowing was down 4% YTD
(December 28, 2015) to 520 lakh hectares, while reservoirs were down to 49%
v/s 62% in 3QFY15. Management highlighted that weak monsoon in
addressable markets and rupee depreciation impacted sales and margins.
Addressable markets impacted by rainfall were Maharashtra, eastern Madhya
Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. EBITDA de-grew
27% YoY to INR1.6b (est. of INR2.5b). EBITDA margins declined 160bp—from
7.6% in 3QFY15 to 6% (est. of 8%) in 3QFY16. Subsidy:Non-subsidy revenue mix
stood at 82:18 (same as 3QFY15) while EBITDA mix was 55:45 (63:37 during
3QFY15) in 3QFY16. Consequently, PAT de-grew from INR1,235m in 3QFY15 to
INR644m (est. of INR1,323m) in 3QFY16, marking a 48% YoY de-growth.
3QFY16 witnesses significant volume de-growth:
Phosphatic fertilizer volumes
were down 3% YoY while complex fertilizers were down 9% YoY. DAP volumes
were up 3% YoY due to higher consumption in northern India while Urea was
up 9% YoY. Overall production of complex and DAP fertilizers was down to
0.6m tonnes from 0.7m tonnes in 3QFY15; sales against the same were at
0.53m tonnes v/s 0.58m tonnes in 3QFY15. All-India market share for CRIN
during the quarter stood at 13.9%, down from 15.5% in 3QFY15. However,
management highlighted that despite challenging environment, CRIN managed
to gain market share in home markets of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh
where the market share increased from 61% to 68%.
Sabero reports stellar performance:
Sabero reported strong EBITDA margin
expansion (from 12% to 16%), driven by higher sales of Macozeb molecule,
rupee depreciation leading to improvement in export realizations and decline
in costs due to lower gas prices. However, the growth was offset by muted
performance in the domestic formulation business.
Valuation and view:
On the back of normal monsoon forecasts, we expect
higher capacity utilization (expected to increase from 70% to 79% over FY15-
18). We believe CRIN has significant operating and financial levers ahead. We
expect 9% revenue CAGR and 23% PAT CAGR over FY15-18. Maintain
Buy
with
a TP of INR260, 10x FY18E EPS (rolled over to FY18).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +912239825422/Kaustubh
Kale
(Kaustubh.Kale@MotilalOswal.com); +912230102498
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.