5 January 2016
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
BSE SENSEX
25,580
S&P CNX
7,785
Inox Wind
CMP: INR360
TP: INR530 (+47%)
Buy
It’s not all ‘Sunny’
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
INXW IN
221.9
72.2/1.1
495 / 325
0/-13 /-
389
14.4
Government focus on the wind sector remains intact
Wind capacity additions to remain strong on the back of continued government
focus—target of 60GW by FY22 stays
Analysis of Wind turbine generator (WTG) features across key players reveals
marginal difference in product features; decisive factors are technology, cost per
unit and historical performance
Agreement with AMSC provides comfort on sourcing of Electronic Control
Systems (ECS); margin accretion of ~1.5% likely post 50% indigenization
Maintain Buy and target price of INR530 (15x FY18E EPS)
Financials and valuations
Y/E March 2016E 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
43.0 57.3
61.2
EBITDA
7.1 10.8
11.7
Adj PAT
4.7
7.4
7.8
EPS (INR)
21.3 33.2
35.0
EPS Gr. (%)
78.7 55.6
5.4
BV/Sh. (INR) 79.1 104.5 131.3
RoE (%)
30.1 36.2
29.7
RoCE (%)
21.5 25.8
23.1
Payout (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
16.9 10.8
10.3
P/BV (x)
4.6
3.4
2.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8
7.8
6.9
Div Yield (%)
1.2
1.8
1.9
Shareholding Pattern (%)
As on
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Sep-15
85.6
4.8
3.4
6.2
Jun-15
85.6
4.7
3.9
5.8
Wind capacity additions to remain strong; government focus intact
Our recent discussions with various industry players, Ministry of New and
renewable Energy (MNRE) and Wind IPPs reveal that wind capacity additions
would remain strong, with FY16 likely at ~2.5-2.8GW. The government aims
to augment the wind sector capacity (60GW by FY22, which implies ~5-
6GW/annum); to achieve the same, the incentives (generation-based
incentives, accelerated depreciation) provided to the industry are likely to
continue over the next few years. Evacuation infrastructure, RPO compliance
by SEBs and land acquisition are the key challenges.
Analysis of WTGs across key players reveals marginal differences in product
features; technology, cost per unit and historical performance the key
A comparative analysis of features offered by the three biggest players in the
industry highlights marginal differences in the WTG—Gamesa’s 2MW G97
WTG offers the best power curves and, in turn, the lowest cost per unit. We
find a marginal difference in the power curves between Suzlon and Inox wind
(INXW). IPPs look at power curves and historical performance of a WTG prior
to placing the order; technology is the other key decisive factor.
Agreement with AMSC provides comfort on sourcing of ECS
INXW has renewed its long-term supply agreement with AMSC for ECS. This
also includes a one-time payment of USD12m for technology transfer, which
will enable INXW to manufacture ~45-50% of the ECS in India. The
agreement alleviates investor concerns on sourcing of the ECS and could lead
to savings of ~1.5% on margins. Development of the 3MW WTG platform is
also part of the agreement.
Expect 38% earnings CAGR over FY15-18E
We expect INXW to report 31% revenue CAGR over FY15-18E, largely
supported by 22% volume growth, realization improvement of 6% and a
jump in commissioning revenues (INR8.9b, 3.4x of FY15). Our target price of
INR530 (15x FY18E EPS of INR35) implies a 47% upside.
Notes:
FII incl. depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.vsharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.